Climate change has emerged as a paramount global challenge, with far-reaching impacts on economies, livelihoods, and biodiversity. While acknowledging the multifaceted nature of climate risks in Southern Africa, this study focuses specifically on tropical cyclones due to their growing intensity, rapid onset, and acute impacts on food systems and infrastructure, areas highly relevant to Loss and Damage mechanisms. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are significantly hindering efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and exacerbating vulnerabilities in many developing countries (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022). Among these extreme events, tropical cyclones pose a particular threat to southern Africa, with their destructive potential amplified by climate change.

The concept of loss and damage has gained prominence in international climate negotiations, particularly for vulnerable developing countries. It refers to the impacts of climate change that cannot be avoided through mitigation and adaptation efforts (UNFCCC, 2013a,b). The international political response to climate change began with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 which recognizes the fundamental priorities of protecting livelihoods and economies (Article 2) and addressing the particular vulnerabilities of developing countries to the adverse impacts of climate change (Article 3) when planning and implementing response measures (UNFCCC, 1992). The Paris Agreement of 2015 explicitly acknowledges the importance of “averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change” (UNFCCC, 2015). This has led to increased focus on developing mechanisms to support vulnerable countries in managing the impacts of extreme events such as tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural hazards, characterized by intense winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges that cause widespread destruction to infrastructure, ecosystems, lives, and human livelihoods. Globally, regions such as the North Atlantic, Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and South Pacific are particularly prone to these extreme weather events, with the intensity and frequency of cyclones exhibiting significant variability over time (Kossin et al., 2020a,b). The increasing visibility of climate change’s impacts on weather patterns across the world has intensified scientific efforts to attribute observed changes in tropical cyclone behavior to anthropogenic influences.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) highlights that while there is limited evidence for a clear trend in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones globally, there is stronger evidence indicating an increase in the proportion of intense cyclones (Category 3 and above) in some ocean basins, notably the North Atlantic and Western Pacific (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013). These findings suggest that climate change may be influencing the intensity and distribution of TCs, with regional disparities driven by local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, atmospheric conditions, and climate variability.

Recent studies have further documented complex interactions between climate change and tropical cyclone activity showing a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting southern Africa. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that, because of global warming, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events will increase for most of tropical Africa, while parts of northern and southern Africa will become drier (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021). Further, Reason et al. (2018) reported that SSTs in the South Indian Ocean have increased over the past decades, potentially fostering conditions conducive to cyclone development. However, the attribution of specific cyclone events or trends remains challenging due to limited historical data, regional climate variability, and the complex interplay of oceanic and atmospheric factors (Leroux et al., 2017). This is likely to result in significantly increased risk of flooding and associated damages.

For instance, the case of Malawi and Southern Africa in general exemplifies the broader regional challenges faced by cyclone-prone areas worldwide. While historically less affected by tropical cyclones compared to regions like the Caribbean or Southeast Asia, Southern Africa has experienced an increasing incidence of intense weather systems linked to climate variability and change (Reason and Van Heerden, 2012). Notable extreme rainfall events, such as Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Cyclone Freddy in 2023, have underscored the urgent need to understand how climate change influences cyclone characteristics and impacts in this region.

Globally, the attribution of specific cyclone events to climate change has advanced through event attribution science, which assesses the extent to which human influence has altered the likelihood or severity of such events (Stott et al., 2016). For example, Van Oldenborgh et al. (2017) attributed the increased probability of extreme rainfall during Cyclone Idai to anthropogenic climate change. Similar approaches are being increasingly applied to understand regional variations and inform adaptation strategies. Titley et al. (2016) have demonstrated that climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones impacting Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi. This finding highlights the direct connection between human-induced climate change and the growing losses and damages in the region.

This paper aims to contribute to this growing body of knowledge by investigating the attribution of tropical cyclones to climate change in Southern Africa, with a specific focus on Malawi. While the case study is region-specific, its findings have broader implications for understanding how climate change may be affecting cyclone activity in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Addressing this issue is critical not only for regional disaster preparedness and resilience planning but also for informing global climate policy and adaptation efforts.

The adverse impacts of climate change, ranging from extreme weather events to slow-onset changes, have become increasingly evident across the globe. As countries strive to mitigate and adapt to these impacts, the concept of loss and damage has emerged as a critical component of climate change discourse. Although it is not officially defined under the UNFCCC, loss and damage refer to the irreversible and non-compensable harm caused by climate change, which exceeds the capacity of communities, ecosystems, and nations to adapt and recover (Telesetsky, 2021). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2022) further defines loss and damage as the “harm from (observed) impacts and (projected) risks” (p. 2914) of anthropogenic climate change. This harm includes both economic and non-economic impacts resulting from extreme weather events (rapid-onset events) and slow-onset events (Qi et al., 2023).

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), loss and damage have gained recognition as a distinct issue that necessitates targeted action. The evolution of loss and damage in UNFCCC negotiations has seen significant milestones, including the establishment and operationalization of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM), the Santiago Network on loss and damage (Santiago Network), and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) (UNFCCC, 2023). The recognition of loss and damage in the Paris Agreement further emphasizes its significance on the global climate change agenda (UNFCCC, 2015).

It is widely recognized that national or regional assessments play a crucial role in comprehending the specific vulnerabilities, risks, and impacts associated with loss and damage within a given geographic context. These assessments provide valuable insights into the localized manifestations of loss and damage, guiding policymakers and practitioners in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. By integrating these assessments into national or regional policies and planning processes, including national adaptation planning (NAPs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs), countries and regions can better understand the challenges they face and allocate resources accordingly.

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) is part of the UNFCCC’s financial mechanism to assist countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in responding to economic and non-economic loss and damage associated with extreme weather events and slow-onset events. Attribution science plays a crucial role in understanding the extent to which human-caused climate change is responsible for the losses and damages. Attribution is often associated with responsibility and responsibility/liability, and in establishing a clear causal relationship (Knutson et al., 2019; Knutson et al., 2020). For example, attribution studies can justify the need for enhanced financial investments, such as climate risk insurance, climate risk pools, and catastrophe bonds, to address the escalating costs associated with more intense and destructive extreme weather events.

However, significant research gaps remain, particularly regarding regional variability in climate change, impacts on tropical cyclone behavior, and the uncertainty surrounding future storm frequency and intensity under different emission scenarios. Furthermore, research on the attribution of climate change to tropical cyclones has a long history globally, but in Southern Africa, it is still emerging, with several gaps remaining that need to be addressed to improve understanding and predictive capabilities. There is limited high-resolution data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) data. In this regard, most attribution studies rely on global climate models that lack the spatial resolution necessary to accurately simulate the genesis, track, and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Southern African region (Reason and Rouault, 2020).

Studies show that there are insufficient or inconsistent long-term historical records of tropical cyclones affecting Southern Africa, which hinders robust attribution analysis (Reason and Van Heerden, 2012). This gap hinders robust attribution analysis. Hence, improved reconstruction of past cyclone activity and improved historical datasets are needed for trend analysis and attribution studies. Likewise, there is a limited understanding of the climate change signal in cyclone intensity and frequency. There is an ongoing debate over how climate change affects the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, with some studies indicating an increase in intensity but no clear trend in frequency (Leroux et al., 2017).

Attribution of specific extreme events (e.g., Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023) to climate change remains complex (Van Oldenborgh et al., 2017), underscoring the need for event-based attribution studies that quantify the extent to which climate change has influenced the probability or severity of individual cyclones. Similarly, the impact of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes is underexplored. Changes in SSTs are known to influence cyclone development, and regional SST variability in the Indian Ocean and its relationship with cyclone activity in Southern Africa is not fully understood (Elsner et al., 2008; Reason et al., 2018). Further research is needed to establish a connection between SST anomalies and cyclone genesis and intensification in the context of climate change.

Additionally, the Lilongwe Declaration on Climate Change 2024 (United Nations, 2024a,b) calls for international support and legal protection for people displaced by climate change, particularly women and children, recognizing that losses and damages due to tropical cyclones in Southern Africa are growing over time. This study contends that addressing these gaps will enhance the reliability of climate-related disaster financing and ensure more resilient and evidence-based responses to climate-induced tropical cyclone hazards. For example, the Lilongwe Declaration on Climate Change 2024 calls for international support and legal protection for people displaced by climate change, particularly women and children. The Lilongwe Declaration of 2024 emphasizes that losses and damages due to tropical cyclones¹ in Southern Africa are increasing over time, and some of these losses, such as housing infrastructure, lead to the displacement of households. Therefore, this study aims to inform financing mechanisms of the losses and damages caused by Tropical Cyclones using Malawi as a case study.

The primary objective of this study is to examine the relationship between tropical cyclones and climate change in Southern Africa, with a particular focus on Tropical Cyclones in southern Malawi.

Specifically, the study aims to:

The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining spatial mapping with literature synthesis and trend analysis of cyclone data from the past three decades. GIS mapping and manual reports have been utilized to identify cyclone-affected regions, while statistical analysis, including Mann-Kendall trend tests and correlation assessments, strengthens the quantitative analysis.

While acknowledging the multifaceted nature of climate risks in Southern Africa, this study focuses specifically on tropical cyclones due to their growing intensity, rapid onset, and acute impacts on food systems and infrastructure, areas highly relevant to Loss and Damage mechanisms.

The study excludes other types of natural hazards and disasters, such as droughts or floods, which may impact different sectors, including agriculture and food security in the region, but are not directly related to tropical cyclones. This work aims to provide a better understanding of the losses and damages caused by tropical cyclones in Southern Africa.

Malawi is a landlocked country located in southeastern Africa, lying between approximately 9° and 17° South latitude and 33° and 35° East longitude, and is bordered by Tanzania, Zambia, and Mozambique. The country lies within the Great Rift Valley, a significant tectonic and geographical feature that stretches from the Middle East down through East Africa (Figure 1). Its terrain is largely characterized by highlands and plateaus with elevations ranging from around 300 m above sea level in the lake area to over 2,300 m in the highland regions. This geographical positioning places Malawi within the subtropical climate zone, with a warm and humid climate influenced by its proximity to the Indian Ocean and the Indian monsoon system. This position makes the country vulnerable to seasonal weather patterns, including rainfall variability and the impacts of tropical cyclones originating from the Indian Ocean, particularly between November and April (Government of Malawi, 2017).

Malawi is highly vulnerable to several hydro-meteorological hazards, including tropical cyclones and floods, especially in the Southern region. In southern Malawi, the most recent flood events were directly triggered or exacerbated by tropical cyclones, reinforcing the rationale for focusing on these events. The country’s high level of vulnerability is largely connected with several specific geo-climatic factors, including: “(i) the influence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena on climate variability; (ii) the variability in the water levels of the country’s three major lakes (Malawi, Chiuta, and Chilwa) and the broader hydrological network, due to variations in rainfall and other factors; and (iii) the location of Malawi along a tectonically active boundary between two major African plates within the great East African Rift System, which creates vulnerability to earthquakes and landslides (Government of Malawi, 2019). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies Malawi as a country at high risk of the adverse effects of climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021).

The study focuses on Blantyre, Chikwawa, Zomba, Phalombe, and Mulanje as case study districts that were severely affected by Tropical Cyclone Freddy in March 2023, as well as by previous cyclones, including Idai and Anna. Cyclone Freddy affected over 2.2 million people, displaced more than 143,000 households, and caused 679 fatalities in Malawi (Government of Malawi, 2023). Over the past five decades, the country has experienced more than 19 major flooding incidents, along with warming temperatures and high levels of variation in average annual rainfall (Government of Malawi, 2015, 2019).

Over the past five decades, the country has experienced more than 19 major flooding incidents, along with warming temperatures (Bahadur et al., 2013; Government of Malawi, 2015, 2016, 2018/2019, 2022, 2023), and a high level of variation in average annual rainfall. In southern Malawi, the most recent flood events were directly triggered or exacerbated by tropical cyclones, reinforcing the rationale for focusing on these events. Cyclone Freddy in 2023, for instance, affected over 2.2 million people, displaced more than 143,000 households, and caused 679 fatalities in Malawi, underscoring the acute vulnerability of the region’s infrastructure and communities (Government of Malawi, 2023b). For example, Malawi experienced very high rainfall levels in 1989, 1997, 2015, 2019, and 2023, but 1992, 2005, 2008, and 2016 were notably dry. Of all the weather-related shocks to which Malawi is susceptible, droughts and floods are the most common and have had the most significant impact on the country’s economy, the lives, and livelihoods of its people, and its infrastructure (Figure 2).

While both droughts and floods are the most common and have significant impacts on the country, floods are the primary focus of this study because they occur more frequently (Holmes et al., 2017). According to the Government of Malawi (2017), floods have become the most frequent hazard, as well as primary accounting for over 70% of climate-related disasters. Furthermore, they show an increasing trend since the 1970s (Government of Malawi, 2011; Pourazar, 2017) (Figure 3), and the number of affected districts has increased over the past two decades.

The study applies a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) approach, combining spatial mapping, literature synthesis, stakeholder interviews, and trend analysis of cyclone data from the past three decades. Data were collected through primary interviews, direct observations, literature reviews, and both qualitative and quantitative historical cyclone analyses. Spatial mapping was conducted using GIS tools, and rainfall data were systematically retrieved from the Climate Change and Meteorological Department.

Data collection methods included:

Methodologically, we triangulated data from peer-reviewed literature, government reports, historical meteorological records, and key informant interviews, including those with chiefs, governmental officials, and community leaders. Through these interactions, the study gathered firsthand knowledge of trends in tropical cyclones and their implications for people’s livelihoods at the local level. The process is summarized in the flow chart below (Figure 4).

By critically examining the existing literature, this review contributes to a deeper understanding of the occurrence, frequency, and intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as their implications for policy, research, and practice in building resilience and addressing the impacts of climate change at local, national, and global levels. The study employed systematic triangulation of data from peer-reviewed literature, government reports, historical meteorological records, and key informant interviews, including those with traditional leaders, governmental officials, and community leaders.

Results from both qualitative and quantitative streams were integrated to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of tropical cyclones. SPI analyses revealed that the majority of wet years with significant flooding coincided with documented cyclone events and La Niña conditions. However, the association between SPI peaks and cyclone intensity was descriptive rather than inferential. Statistical tests (Pearson/Spearman correlation) established moderate associations between SPI anomalies and tropical cyclone frequency but did not confirm direct causality.

The qualitative analysis, conducted using NVivo, identified institutional responses, community coping mechanisms, and perceptions of climate risks that often overlapped with the quantitative findings (e.g., SPI-identified years of severe flooding). For example, stakeholder interviews revealed increased awareness and adaptation following Cyclones Freddy and Idai, underscoring the importance of integrating data across methodologies.

Limitations associated with SPI (as a proxy for cyclone activity) are discussed: SPI captures rainfall anomalies but does not reflect wind intensity, storm surge, cyclone track density, or short-duration, high-intensity events. While most cyclone-induced flood events aligned with SPI extremes, not all SPI peaks were related to cyclones. The integration of remote sensing, wind speed, and ENSO indices is recommended for future studies.

It is important to emphasize that this study’s methodology, while demonstrating clear correlations between SPI anomalies, cyclone frequency, and climate indicators, does not constitute a formal event attribution analysis. True climate change attribution requires analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, atmospheric circulation patterns, and comparative modeling with and without anthropogenic forcing (Stott et al., 2016). Our findings align with established attribution studies for the region (Van Oldenborgh et al., 2017; Titley et al., 2016) but should be interpreted as demonstrating consistency with climate change impacts rather than definitive proof of causation.

Qualitative findings from stakeholder interviews strongly corroborated quantitative trends. Community leaders consistently identified the 2000s as a turning point in cyclone intensity and frequency. As noted by a traditional leader in Chikwawa, ‘Before 2000, we would see big storms maybe once every five years. Now they come almost every year, and they are much stronger than what our grandparents faced.’ (Community Leader, Ntwana Village).

Policy-level respondents emphasized the increasing strain on response systems: ‘Each cyclone now requires more resources than the last. We are rebuilding from Idai when Freddy hits, rebuilding from Freddy when the next one comes’ (District Commissioner, Blantyre).

These qualitative perspectives align directly with the quantitative analysis, showing increased frequency (Mann-Kendall Tau = 0.29, p < 0.05) and the correlation between extreme SPI years and community-identified disaster years (r = 0.51, p < 0.01).

The occurrence of tropical cyclones in southern Malawi and their association with extreme events were analyzed, with all tropical cyclones that have affected the region causing heavy rains, which have induced flooding disasters in the affected areas. Malawi has experienced more than 19 major flooding incidents over the past five decades. In southern Malawi, the most recent flood events were directly triggered or exacerbated by tropical cyclones (Government of Malawi, 2017, 2019). Appendix 2 presents a record of cyclones that have affected Malawi (specifically the Southern Region) over the past 30 years. As indicated in Section 4.1, all tropical cyclones that have affected the region have caused heavy rains, which have led to flooding disasters in the affected areas. Figures 20–23 show areas affected by floods associated with tropical cyclones Chedza in 2015, Idai in 2019, Ana in 2022, and Freddy in 2023.

Over the past five decades, Malawi has been affected by a series of successive climatic shocks that have had a compounding impact. The area of concern is the increasing trend of floods associated with the rising frequency of tropical cyclones, their expanding spatial coverage, and the increasing severity of floods over the past two decades. The intensity and frequency of disasters have been increasing due to multiple factors, including climate change, population growth, urbanization, and environmental degradation (Government of Malawi, 2015). Consequently, the increasing frequency, intensity, and magnitude of floods over the past few decades are considered to have had adverse consequences on people’s livelihoods and national economies (Government of Malawi, 2013; Nilsson et al., 2010; Government of Malawi, 2015; Pourazar, 2017). Although records show an increasing trend from 1974, the highest frequency of flooding occurred from 2004, attributed to climate change (UNECA, 2015; Government of Malawi, 2011). Floods affect over half of Malawi’s 28 districts, with eight of them located in the southern region, making southern Malawi the most prone to flooding events (Winsemius et al., 2015). National records provide a summary of the recorded severe floods that have occurred in Malawi since 1946 (Nilsson et al., 2010; Government of Malawi, 2013; UNECA, 2015). Figures 20–23 show areas affected by tropical cyclones and related floods, and Appendix 9 summarizes the overall impacts of tropical cyclones that have hit Malawi over the past 30 years.

The first worst flooding event on record occurred in 2015, with over 1 million people affected by the end of January 2015, with the Southern Region contributing 11 of the 15 most affected districts, and this flooding was associated with tropical storm Chedza (Government of Malawi, 2015). In early March 2019, the country experienced heavy rains, floods, and strong winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Idai, which affected approximately 975,600 people, of whom 86,976 were displaced, 60 were killed, and 672 were injured (Government of Malawi, 2019).

In March 2023, more than 600 people died, and over 500 people were reported missing in Malawi after Tropical Cyclone Freddy contributed heavy rain and flooding, displacing over 659,278 people and damaging property and livelihoods. Tropical Cyclone Freddy affected a total of 2,267,458 people, resulting in 679 deaths, 2,178 injuries, and 537 people missing (Government of Malawi, 2023a). Following Tropical Cyclone Idai, Malawi was subsequently affected by six additional cyclones, including Tropical Storm Ana (2022), which impacted 945,934 people and resulted in 64 fatalities (Appendix 7) (Government of Malawi, 2023a).

In March 2023, more than 600 people died, and over 500 people were reported missing in Malawi after Tropical Cyclone Freddy contributed heavy rain and flooding in many parts of southern Malawi, displacing over half a million (659,278) people, and damaging property and livelihoods (Government of Malawi, 2023). The Tropical cyclone severely impacted on 13 districts in southern Malawi (Balaka, Blantyre, Blantyre City, Chikwawa, Chiradzulu, Machinga, Mangochi, Mulanje, Mwanza, Neno, Nsanje, Phalombe, Thyolo, Zomba, Zomba City) and one district in central Malawi (Ntcheu). Nsanje, Chikwawa, Blantyre, Phalombe, Zomba, and Mulanje were the most severely affected districts in terms of flooding severity, population density, and access constraints. This is the most severe cyclone to make landfall in Malawi over the past year. Tropical Cyclone Freddy affected about one-third (27%) of the total population in these affected districts. Following the heavy rains, several districts in southern Malawi reported multiple flood events—in Blantyre, Thyolo, and Mulanje districts on 12th March 2023. On 13 March 2023, multiple landslides and debris flows, most of which led to flash floods, were recorded in Blantyre, Phalombe, Chiradzulu, and Mulanje Districts. On 14th March 2023, the number of affected districts increased to include Machinga, Balaka, and Mangochi districts (Government of Malawi, 2023). Overall, 2,267,458 (1,110,639 Male, 1,156,819 Female) people were affected, of whom 659,278 (336,252 female, 323,026 male) people were displaced. About 56% of the affected were children, and 7.2% were persons living with disabilities. The disaster had caused 679 deaths and 2,178 injuries, with 537 people missing. At district level, the most affected were Phalombe, Chiradzulu, Mulanje, Nsanje, Zomba and Mwanza with Phalombe recording the largest proportion (60%) of affected people (Appendix 9) in relation to internal displacement, Mulanje District recorded the largest figure, 131,830 (67,233 male, 64,597 female) followed by Phalombe with 117,801 (60,079 female; 57,722 male) (Government of Malawi, 2023). Appendix 8 and Figure 24 present affected population statistics for Tropical Cyclone Freddy at the district level, disaggregated further by gender, disability, and age.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy affected a total of 2,267,458 (1,110,639 male, 1,156,819 female) people. The affected people comprised 340,267 children under five, 181,098 pregnant and lactating women (PLW), and 234,729 persons with disabilities (Government of Malawi, 2023a). The impacts of flooding suggest that the severity of flooding is increasing over time. This trend in floods is related to changes in rainfall patterns associated with tropical cyclones, which have implications for loss and damage in affected areas.

While many studies agree that the number of TCs globally might not significantly increase under a high emission scenario (Knutson et al., 2010; Camargo and Sobel, 2010). While many studies agree that the number of tropical cyclones globally might not significantly increase under a high emission scenario, there is consistent evidence that the likelihood of extremely intense cyclones could double by the end of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021), the trend in Figure 7 seems to project an eight-times increase in tropical cyclone events for the next 20 years. This includes an increase in severe tropical cyclones. This supports climatic projections and models, which suggest that the severity and frequency of climatic shocks will continue to increase (Future Climate for Africa, 2017). Many studies agree that the number of TCs may not increase significantly under a high-emission scenario, but the likelihood of extremely intense cyclones could double by the end of the 21st century (Knutson et al., 2010; Camargo and Sobel, 2010; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its Sixth Assessment Report, indicates that the risk of very intense storms and associated extreme rainfall is projected to increase in most regions, with considerable uncertainty remaining regarding their frequency (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021). Knutson et al. (2010), using climate models, predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of intense storms/TCs and extreme rainfall associated with TCs globally due to rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but they also emphasize that overall storm frequency may decrease or remain unchanged, with significant regional variability. Similarly, Murakami et al. (2019) analyzes regional projections and emphasizes regional differences in projected TC activity, with some areas experiencing increased storm intensity and rainfall, while others witness insignificant changes. For example, Li et al. (2019), in Nature Communications, highlighted that the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions could experience increased TC rainfall and intensity, while some Atlantic regions show more variable trends. These authors note high uncertainty due to complex interactions among the climate, ocean, and atmosphere (Murakami et al., 2020). Emanuel (2017), in assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall, discusses how rising SSTs and atmospheric moisture content enhance the energy available for storms, increasing their potential intensity and rainfall, consistent with climate change projections. The warming scenarios are associated with climate change. These studies collectively suggest that climate change is likely to intensify and increase rainfall associated with tropical cyclones globally, with regional variations and ongoing uncertainties. The strongest storms are projected to become more severe, and their tracks may shift poleward, affecting new regions. Kossin et al. (2018) highlight that the evidence of a poleward shift in the latitude of the most intense tropical cyclones suggests changes in storm tracks linked to climate change. This shift has implications for regions previously less affected by severe storms. Despite the limited availability of robust historical data for certain parameters that make the accurate forecasting of rainfall patterns and extreme events, the available evidence suggests a continued increase in the intensity and number of weather-related incidents (Niang et al., 2014). This means the pace of interventions to manage these events should be in line with such projections.