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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Water</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Water</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Water</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2624-9375</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/frwa.2022.890229</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Water</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Rapid Urbanization and the Growing Water Risk Challenges in Ethiopia: The Need for Water Sensitive Thinking</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name><surname>Abraha</surname> <given-names>Tesfay</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001"><sup>&#x0002A;</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1664977/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Tibebu</surname> <given-names>Assefa</given-names></name>
<uri xlink:href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1213256/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Ephrem</surname> <given-names>Gebremariyam</given-names></name>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff><institution>Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City Development, Addis Ababa University</institution>, <addr-line>Addis Ababa</addr-line>, <country>Ethiopia</country></aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by: Domenica Mirauda, University of Basilicata, Italy</p></fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Reviewed by: Janez Susnik, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Netherlands; Kanchan Singh, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Ethiopia</p></fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x0002A;Correspondence: Tesfay Abraha <email>abrahagisrs&#x00040;gmail.com</email></corresp>
<fn fn-type="other" id="fn001"><p>This article was submitted to Water Resource Management, a section of the journal Frontiers in Water</p></fn></author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>4</volume>
<elocation-id>890229</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>05</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>18</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#x000A9; 2022 Abraha, Tibebu and Ephrem.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Abraha, Tibebu and Ephrem</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p></license> </permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Water connects all kinds of life like a thread. However, despite its indispensable roles, little attention has been paid to its effective management for generations. Water as a nonrenewable natural resource, combined with a fast-growing urban population and climate change, has exposed countries to increasing water-related risks. Even though the water-related risk is becoming a fast-expanding worldwide concern, it is largely ignored and understudied in Ethiopia. As a result, this research aims to explore water-related risks at the country and basin levels, as well as to generate information on how water-related risks may influence current and future urbanization and urban settlement so that land use and water resource management planners can make better strategic decisions. To do this, the researchers employed a deductive exploratory (quantitative) research strategy that primarily centered on desk review and spatial analysis, utilizing GIS and remote sensing. As a result, this study found that water availability per person per year is 1,109 m<sup>3</sup>, indicating that Ethiopia is experiencing water stress. According to the study, 41.6% of Ethiopians live in basins, receiving &#x0003C;500 m<sup>3</sup> per capita each year. Furthermore, 178 urban centers (15%) are located in dry basins, 369 (33%) urban centers are located in low groundwater potential zones, and 315 urban centers (28.15%) are located in an area with &#x0003C;100-mm annual rainfall. In addition, 307 urban centers (28%) are all in high-drought-risk areas, while 307 urban centers (27%) are insignificant flood-prone areas. Overall, this study discovered that Ethiopia and its urban centers are experiencing water-related challenges. Hence, water-centric management strategies, such as water-smart community development, water-sensitive physical planning, water-smart technology, and a water-sensitive legal framework, are required to address the ongoing water risks.</p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>basin</kwd>
<kwd>climate change</kwd>
<kwd>water scarcity</kwd>
<kwd>water stress</kwd>
<kwd>water risk</kwd>
<kwd>water sensitive</kwd>
<kwd>Ethiopia</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<counts>
<fig-count count="9"/>
<table-count count="6"/>
<equation-count count="5"/>
<ref-count count="81"/>
<page-count count="19"/>
<word-count count="11076"/>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s1">
<title>Background</title>
<p>Today, over half of the global population lives in urban areas, and the number is expected to continue rapidly growing (UN-Habitat, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">2020</xref>), and it is projected that, by 2050, more than two-thirds of the global population (68%) will reside in urban areas. This means that, &#x0007E;7 out of 10 people will live in urban centers. These forecasts also revealed that Asia and Africa will account for roughly 90% of the population rise (UN-DESA, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">2018</xref>). Hence, these precedent facts clearly show that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>The fate of the world has been and will be highly influenced by an urban setting.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The number and size of settlements in developing countries will be influenced by increasing urbanization. For example, villages will rapidly transition into emerging towns, emerging towns into small towns, and so on.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Developing countries, in particular, are projected to face difficulties in meeting the needs of their rapidly rising populations, particularly in the areas of water, food, energy, and waste management.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>As the globe continues to urbanize, the world&#x00027;s population life and livability will be determined by how urban areas are managed and governed following sustainable development goals and the efficient use of natural resources. As a result, the fundamental task of urban leadership, communities, and scholars will be to comprehend the main trend of urbanization concerning resource use.</p>
<p>Surprisingly, recent reports have shown that the resource consumption rate is surpassing the population growth rate (Seto et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">2012</xref>; Swilling et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">2018</xref>; Nicolau et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">2019</xref>; Ganivet, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">2020</xref>). Available Projection indicated that, by 2050, the urban resource consumption rate is expected to grow faster than the urban population growth rate (Ganivet, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">2020</xref>). By 2050, urban domestic material consumption will account for 60% of the total global domestic material consumption (Baynes and Musango, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">2018</xref>). Domestic material consumption will reach 8&#x02013;17 tones <italic>per capita</italic> per year, which exceeds the standard set by the sustainable development goal (6&#x02013;8 tones <italic>per capita</italic> per year; Swilling et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">2018</xref>). To date, manifestations have already surfaced that the resource consumption pattern is in clashes with nature&#x00027;s affordability (Parsons, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">2021</xref>), and ecosystem services are under wide-ranging stress (Rahimi et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">2021</xref>).</p>
<p>When it comes to freshwater withdrawal and consumption patterns, the trend is also alarming (UN-Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">2021</xref>). Since the previous century, knowingly or unknowingly, human intervention has threatened water resources (Cosgrove and Loucks, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">2015</xref>; Abd El Mooty et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">2016</xref>). Consequently, water withdrawal has tripled over the last 50 years (He et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">2021</xref>), with agriculture accounting for 72% of the total withdrawal, followed by an industry and a municipal with 12 and 16%, respectively (FAO UN Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">2021</xref>). This shows that water consumption has been growing at more than 2-fold the rate of population increase (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">2017</xref>). It is also projected that, by 2025, water withdrawals in developing countries will increase by 50%, while, in developed countries, it is expected to increase by 18% (Boretti and Rosa, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">2019</xref>). Currently, the contradiction between water withdrawal and available freshwater goes beyond the surface (Upadhyaya, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">2016</xref>). While access to safe water is still a dream for most urban people (Nadeem et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">2016</xref>), water stress-related conflicts are increasing (Sivakumar, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">2011</xref>). Today, natural catastrophes are becoming more numerous and widespread over the world, with water-related disasters being the most regular and recurrent (Asian Development Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">2015</xref>). Water-related dangers, such as floods and droughts, are predicted to grow in both frequency and severity as a result of too much or too little water (UNICEF, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">2020</xref>). According to the reports stated above, the world is rapidly approaching water risk. In this regard, theoretically, &#x0201C;water risk&#x0201D; is defined as &#x0201C;the possibility of an entity experiencing a water-related challenge, such as water scarcity, water stress, flooding, infrastructure decay, and drought&#x0201D; (Schulte and Morrison, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>).</p>
<p>Existing definitions of &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; are differentiated based on the degree of severity of the water challenges. For example, Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>) considered both terms as different degrees of the same challenge. According to Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>), an area is said to be stressed when it receives freshwater &#x0003C;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year and a water-scarce area when it receives freshwater &#x0003C;1,000 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year. Presently, 25% of the world population are living in water-stressed countries, and 67% are experiencing severe water scarcity for at least 1 month each year (UNICEF, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">2020</xref>). It is also predicted that water stress will continue at an accelerating rate as long as the current water management and water utilization practices remain unchanged (Heidari et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">2021</xref>). Total water consumption is expected to rise by 55% by 2050, with manufacturing and residential sectors seeing 400 and 130% increases, respectively. As a result, the globe will confront a freshwater supply gap of up to 40%, indicating that the world is still on &#x0201C;off track&#x0201D; to meet its sustainable development targets.</p>
<p>Africa, with about 60% of its territory belonging to arid and semiarid climatic conditions (Gan et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">2016</xref>), is cited as a water-stressed continent and contributes to 50% of the people who drink water from unsafe water sources (WWAP, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">2019</xref>). Sub-Saharan Africa, which falls under rapid population growth, climate change, and irregular rainfall patterns, has many water-stressed countries (Serdeczny et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">2016</xref>). Since 2000, the number of people in Sub-Sahara who lack access to clean water increased by 40% (UN Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">2021</xref>). The Sub-Saharan Africa region is one of the regions that are suffering from water stress due to fast-growing urban areas (Christopher, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">2006</xref>). While Ethiopia, a Sub-Saharan country, has relatively abundant water resources, the unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization along with climate change is shaking the balance between water demand and supply. According to Zablon et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">2021</xref>), although Ethiopia is recognized as Africa&#x00027;s &#x0201C;Water Tower,&#x0201D; its water source is severely impacted by fluctuating rainfall, increasing water demand, climate change, and watershed degradation.</p>
<p>Water stress-related literature has developed slowly in Ethiopia over the last few decades. Sustainable Water Partnership (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">2021</xref>), for example, investigated Ethiopia&#x00027;s whole water resource profile, including water resource potential and water stress-related challenges. According to this report, Ethiopia is a water-stressed country. The total annual renewable water resource per person is 1,162 m<sup>3</sup>, which is below the water stress level set by Falkenmark. According to this report, most basins in the east of the country have ephemeral surface water and are classified as dry basins. Similarly, Adeba et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">2015</xref>) investigated water scarcity and its effects on sustainable development in the Awash basin, concluding that the basin is the most water stressed due to continual water withdrawal. Adane et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">2021</xref>) also developed a baseline for water stress in Ethiopia at the subbasin level. Water stress was mapped at the subbasin scale using the &#x0201C;Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA),&#x0201D; and it was discovered that water stress in Ethiopia is growing over time. Assefa et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">2018</xref>) established a general generic water security index, using Addis Ababa as a case study, and found that urbanization shapes urban water security both directly and indirectly. Furthermore, both urbanization and water security are dynamic processes that alter with changes in the population, economy, and environment. The study also stated that studying water security paves the way for understanding and generating indicators to measure sustainable water development goals, and that urban water security is centered on assessing the capacity of urban water sources to ensure sustainable urban water-related services that can result in vibrant and livable urban settlements</p>
<p>Despite these attempts, there are still certain gaps that this study attempted to fill. As a result, the following are the primary motivations for conducting this research:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Despite the fact that worldwide water stress studies exist, they are less likely to give detailed and specific water stress information. The intricate variability that exists at the main basin level is hidden by global-scale water stress research. In this scenario, a country that appears to be safe or unaffected by stress may have significantly more troubled basins.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Even while limited studies on water-related studies, such as urban water security, are emerging, pieces of literature in urban water risk in general, as well as, in particular, in urban water security, studies are still lacking.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The majority of water risk studies in Ethiopia are sporadic and fragmented. These studies are useful in illustrating the severity of the water risk problem, but they do not provide a full picture of how water risk grows from a country to a basin level.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Most studies used &#x0201C;Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) index;&#x0201D; however, this study combines the Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) index with an Environmental Water Requirement indicator&#x0201D; and the &#x0201C;Falkenmark index.&#x0201D;</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>As a result, the overall goal of this research is to investigate water-related risks, such as &#x0201C;water stress,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;flooding,&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;drought,&#x0201D; as well as to generate &#x0201C;water risk&#x0201D; information that will aid in determining where water risk exists in conjunction with Ethiopia&#x00027;s spatial urbanization pattern and water risk probability. This work makes a 2-fold contribution. First, the research refined the condition of water stress at the country and basin levels using a set of water stress indicators (which included both the Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio and the Environmental Water Requirement indicator as well as the &#x0201C;Falkenmark index&#x0201D;). Second, the overlay maps (the combined map of water risk and the distribution of urban centers) can be utilized as a baseline for scenario analysis for both national urban development planning and national water risk monitoring.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2">
<title>Related Literature</title>
<sec>
<title>Key Concepts Related to &#x0201C;Water Scarcity,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;Water Stress,&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;Water Risk&#x0201D;</title>
<p>Water-related problems are commonly referred to as &#x0201C;water scarcity,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;water stress,&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water risks&#x0201D; (Schulte and Morrison, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>; Kummu et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">2016</xref>; FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">2018</xref>; UNICEF, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">2021</xref>; UN-Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">2021</xref>). There are two thoughts regarding the relationship between &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water stress;&#x0201D; for example, FAO (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">2012</xref>), UNICEF (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">2021</xref>), and UN-Water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">2021</xref>) argued that, compared to &#x0201C;water stress,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; is a more inclusive and broader concept, and &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; is the symptom of &#x0201C;water scarcity.&#x0201D; Whereas Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>) conceptualized the terms opposite to the aforementioned concepts. According to Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>), compared to &#x0201C;water scarcity,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; is a more inclusive and broader concept that encompasses all the issues of water scarcity. Existing definitions of &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; are also differentiated based on the degree of severity of the water challenges. For example, Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>) considered both terms as different degrees of the same challenge. According to Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>), an area is said to be stressed when it receives freshwater &#x0003C;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year and a water-scarce area when it receives freshwater &#x0003C;1,000 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T1">
<label>Table 1</label>
<caption><p>Water stress indicators and their thresholds.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Type of indicator</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Category</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Implications for water stress</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Falkenmark Indicator</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0003E;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> per capita /year</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">No stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">1,000&#x02013;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> per capita /year</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">500&#x02013;1,000 m<sup>3</sup> per capita /year</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0003C;500 m<sup>3</sup> per capita /year</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA)</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0003C;20%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">No stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">20&#x02013;40%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Moderately stressed</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0003E;40%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0201C;Severely stressed&#x0201D;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Freshwater withdrawal-to-availability ratio (WTA) with</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">0&#x02013;20%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">No stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">environmental water Requirements</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">25&#x02013;50%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Low stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">50&#x02013;75%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Medium stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">75&#x02013;100%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">High stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">&#x0003E;100%</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Critical</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p><italic>Sources: Berhanu et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">2014</xref>)</italic>.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>The terms &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; are sometimes used interchangeably because they have a lot of similarities and overlaps. However, there is mounting evidence that the two phrases are independent concepts that should not be confused (Schulte and Morrison, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>; UN-Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">2021</xref>). The definition, applications, and functionality of the terms are not uniform across the literature. Hence, setting a working definition and describing how &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; are used in the present research is a prerequisite to minimizing the confusion emerging between the two terms. Therefore, this study employed the definition of Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>) to explain the degree of severity of the water challenges. &#x0201C;Water scarcity&#x0201D; is regarded as the volumetric abundance of water supply and conceptualized as a physical, objective reality that can be measured consistently in a given geographic location and temporal horizon (Schulte and Morrison, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>). &#x0201C;Water scarcity&#x0201D; can be either &#x0201C;physical&#x0201D; or &#x0201C;economic&#x0201D; scarcity. &#x0201C;Physical&#x0201D; water scarcity refers to volumetric water shortage, and &#x0201C;economic&#x0201D; scarcity refers to water scarcity due to a lack of water infrastructure (UNICEF, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">2021</xref>). Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>) defined &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; as the occurrence of water scarcity when the available freshwater fails to support human and ecological water demands. According to Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>), compared to &#x0201C;water scarcity,&#x0201D; &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; is a more inclusive and broader concept and considers several physical aspects related to water resources, which include water scarcity, water quality, environmental flows, and the accessibility of water. Therefore, in this particular study, &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; is considered as a symptom of &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; or &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; is included in the &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; concept, and the whole definition is borrowed from the definition of Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>). The rationale to consider &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; over &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; includes:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>When assessing water risk, &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; is thought to be more effective than &#x0201C;water scarcity.&#x0201D;</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>&#x0201C;Water stress&#x0201D; takes into account more than just the physical availability of water.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>&#x0201C;Water stress&#x0201D; is a broader concept than &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; that includes the relationship between total renewable freshwater resources (TRWR) and the total freshwater withdrawn (TFWW) in a given geographical location or annual water availability per person.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>&#x0201C;Water-stress&#x0201D; study helps to understand whether the rates of abstractions in basins are sustainable over the long term, which, in turn, helps to encourage resource efficiency.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>A &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; map can aid in the development of urban scenario planning as well as the monitoring and reporting of water risk.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>Meanwhile, &#x0201C;water risk&#x0201D; is a catch-all phrase for the severity of water-related problems in a given place, and &#x0201C;water risk&#x0201D; has the advantage of being comprehensive, as it encompasses both &#x0201C;water scarcity&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;water stress&#x0201D; (Schulte and Morrison, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>). &#x0201C;Water risk,&#x0201D; according to Schulte and Morrison (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">2014</xref>), is &#x0201C;the likelihood of an entity facing a water-related challenge, such as water scarcity, water stress, flooding, infrastructure decay, and drought.&#x0201D;</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Physical Water Stress Indicators</title>
<p>Since the issue of water stress emerges as a main concern, various water stress measurement indexes have been developed (Damkjaer and Taylor, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">2017</xref>; Wang et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B71">2021</xref>). For example, Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">1986</xref>) developed a water stress assessment index that relates total population and total runoff. V&#x000F6;r&#x000F6;smarty et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B70">2005</xref>) developed a water stress index to measure the water withdrawal-to-availability (WTA) ratio. Smakhtin et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">2004</xref>) developed a water stress index by incorporating environmental water requirements, which is later adopted by UN-Water as a method of measuring water stress. Sun et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">2008</xref>) also developed a water supply stress index. Some of the well-acknowledged indexes are presented in the following section.</p>
<sec>
<title>Falkenmark Indicator and Its Thresholds (Country-Level Assessment)</title>
<p>The Falkenmark index is the oldest and most well-known water stress index (McNally et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">2019</xref>). Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">1986</xref>) initially defined water stress as the fraction of the total annual runoff available for each person every year in a given country (Damkjaer and Taylor, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">2017</xref>). Objectively, the Falkenmark index compares the total freshwater volume with the total population in a country (m<sup>3</sup>/capita/year; Mulwa et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">2021</xref>; Equation 1 and <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>).</p>
<disp-formula id="E1"><label>(1)</label><mml:math id="M1"><mml:mtable class="eqnarray" columnalign="right center left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mtext>Falkenmark&#x000A0;indicator</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>Annual&#x000A0;runoff</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>Population&#x000A0;size</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA)</title>
<p>The withdrawal-to-availability ratio (WTA) developed by Raskin et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">1997</xref>) also emerges as one of the country-level water stress indicators (Rijsberman, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">2006</xref>). The water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) index defines water stress in terms of the ratio of total annual withdrawals of freshwater for domestic (D), industrial (I), and agriculture (A) to mean annual renewable water resources (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">2018</xref>; Equation 2 and <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>).</p>
<disp-formula id="E3"><label>(2)</label><mml:math id="M3"><mml:mtable columnalign='left'><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mtable><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>Fresh&#x000A0;Water&#x000A0;Withdrawal&#x000A0;to&#x000A0;Availability&#x000A0;Ratio</mml:mtext><mml:mo>&#x000A0;</mml:mo><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:mtext>WTA</mml:mtext><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mtable><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>&#x02009;&#x02009;&#x02009;</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle='true'><mml:munderover><mml:mo>&#x02211;</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>n</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>n</mml:mtext></mml:munderover><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:mtext>DIA</mml:mtext><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>&#x000A0;</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>MARR</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mrow><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) With Environmental Water Requirement</title>
<p>The water stress index with environmental water requirements was originally described by Smakhtin et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">2004</xref>). This stress index is an improvement over the withdrawal-to-availability ratio (WTA) because it includes the environmental water requirement (EWR). This indicator is also approved by United Nation as a sustainable development indicator or as a water-use efficiency indicator (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">2018</xref>). Mathematically, the water stress index with environmental water requirement is expressed by the ratio between total freshwater withdrawn (TFWW) by all sectors and total renewable freshwater resources (TRWR) after taking into account environmental flow requirements (EFR). Commonly, an environmental flow requirement (EFR) is taken as 20&#x02013;50% of total renewable freshwater resources (TRWR; Smakhtin et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">2004</xref>; Equation 3 and <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>).</p>
<disp-formula id="E5"><label>(3)</label><mml:math id="M5"><mml:mtable columnalign='left'><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mtable><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>Fresh&#x000A0;Water&#x000A0;Withdrawal</mml:mtext><mml:mo>&#x02212;</mml:mo><mml:mtext>to</mml:mtext><mml:mo>&#x02212;</mml:mo><mml:mtext>Availability&#x000A0;Ratio</mml:mtext><mml:mo>&#x000A0;</mml:mo><mml:mo stretchy='false'>(</mml:mo><mml:mtext>WTA</mml:mtext><mml:mo stretchy='false'>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mtable><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mfrac><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>TFWW</mml:mtext><mml:mo>*</mml:mo><mml:mn>100</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>TRWR</mml:mtext><mml:mo>&#x02212;</mml:mo><mml:mo>&#x000A0;</mml:mo><mml:mtext>EFR</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Contextual Water Resource and Urbanization Review of Ethiopia</title>
<sec>
<title>Surface Water Resources (River Basins) in Ethiopia</title>
<p>Water covers around 0.7% of Ethiopia&#x00027;s landmass (Melesse et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>). According to Seifu and Seid (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">2006</xref>), Ethiopia has 12 major river basins (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T2">Table 2</xref> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>), which create four major drainage systems (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>), such as:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>The Nile basin, which includes Abbay or Blue Nile, Baro-Akobo, Setit-Tekeze/Atbara, and Mereb, covers 33% and drains the northern, central, and western parts.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The Rift Valley, which includes Awash, Denakil, Omo-Gibe, and Central Lakes, covers 28% and consists of a group of independent interior basins, extending from Djibouti in the north to the United Republic of Tanzania in the south, with nearly half of its total area located in Ethiopia.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The Shebelli-Juba basin, which includes Wabi-Shebelle and Genale-Dawa, covers 33% and drains the southeastern mountains toward Somalia and the Indian Ocean.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The North-East Coast, which consists of the Ogaden and Gulf of Aden basins, covers the remaining 6% of the country.</p></list-item>
</list>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T2">
<label>Table 2</label>
<caption><p>Ethiopian surface water resources by major river basins.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>River basin</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Catchment</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Annual runoff</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Specific discharge</bold></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th/>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>area (km<sup><bold>2</bold></sup>)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>(x10<sup><bold>9</bold></sup>m<sup><bold>3</bold></sup>)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>(liter/km<sup><bold>2</bold></sup>)</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Abay</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">199,812</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">52.6</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Awash</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">112,700</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">4.6</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Baro-Akobo</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">74,100</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">23.6</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">9.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">GenaleDawa</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">171,050</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5.88</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Mereb</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5,900</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.26</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Omo-gibe</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">78,200</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">16.96</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Rift valley</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">52,740</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5.64</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Tekeze</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">90,000</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">7.63</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Wabishebele</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">200,214</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3.16</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Danakil</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">74,000</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.86</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ogaden</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">77,100</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Aysha</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">2,200</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Total</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,138,016</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">121.19</td>
<td/>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p><italic>Source: Melesse et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>)</italic>.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<fig id="F1" position="float">
<label>Figure 1</label>
<caption><p>Major river basins of Ethiopia. Source: Awulachew et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">2007</xref>).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0001.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>In Ethiopia, rivers are largely seasonal, with around 70% of runoff occurring between June and August (Dile et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">2013</xref>). Although there are unequal geographical and seasonal changes, Ethiopia receives about 122 billion m3 of yearly surface runoff (FDRE-MWR, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">2002</xref>). Water shortages affect all river basins except the Nile; however, heavy rains can produce floods, especially in the Awash River and in the lower Baro-Akobo and Wabe-Shebelle river basins, causing damage to standing crops and infrastructure (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Groundwater Resource Potential of Ethiopia</title>
<p>Studies on the groundwater potential of Ethiopia have reported different results that vary from 2.6 billion cubic meters (FDRE-MWR, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">2002</xref>) to 40 billion cubic meters (Mengistu et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">2019</xref>). These reports indicate that the groundwater potential is not fully known, but its quantity cannot be undermined (Melesse et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>), Moreover, groundwater occurrence is affected by the variability of rainfall, topography, climate, and geological formation (Ayalew, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">2018</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Surface Water Resources (Lakes and Reservoirs) Potential of Ethiopia</title>
<p>Ethiopia contains around 22 lakes, with 11 fresh, nine saline, and four crater lakes (Awulachew et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">2007</xref>). Except for Lake Tana, which is the source of the Abay River in the Nile Basin, most of the largest lakes are found in the Rift Valley (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>). Most Rift Valley lakes have no surface water outlets and, as a result, are extremely saline. The surface area covered by lakes is estimated to be 7,500 km<sup>2</sup> (Awulachew et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">2007</xref>). The total area of wetlands in Ethiopia is estimated between 1.4 and 1.8 million ha (Abebe and Geheb, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">2003</xref>). Floodplains are mostly found in the north-western and western highlands, the Rift Valley and the eastern highlands, but some are also located in lowlands (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>). Ethiopia has also many small, medium, and large reservoir dams constructed for hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply (Awulachew et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">2007</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Annual Spatial Distribution of Rainfall of Ethiopia</title>
<p>The rainfall distribution in Ethiopia is highly variable both spatially and temporally (Ayalew, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">2018</xref>). This varies due to Ethiopia&#x00027;s diverse environment, which ranges from the semiarid desert in the lowlands to humid and warm in southwest Ethiopia (Fazzini et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">2015</xref>). The main reasons for rainfall variability in Ethiopia are global climate change and local contexts of seasonal variations due to undulating topography (Melesse et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>). The southwestern highlands of Ethiopia receive the most yearly rainfall (over 2,700 mm), followed by a progressive decline in the north (to &#x0003C;200 mm), northeast (to &#x0003C;100 mm), and southeast (to &#x0003C;200 mm; World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">2020</xref>). To this end, previous studies on Ethiopian rainfall asserted that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>There are spatial and temporal rainfall irregularities.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Besides inter-regional variability, there is also intra-regional rainfall variability.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Topographical variations along with climate change are the vanguard factors for seasonal variation in rainfall.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Most parts of Ethiopia receive one main wet season (&#x0201C;Kiremt&#x0201D;) from mid-June to mid-September up to 350 mm per month in the wettest regions.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Water Resources and Climate Change in Ethiopia</title>
<p>Ethiopia is characterized by significant climate disparities in its intra and inter regions due to its enormous terrestrial size and diversified topography. The eastern part of the country is predominantly arid and semiarid, receiving little rainfall and regularly experiencing drought (World Bank., 2019). Today, the impact of climate change on water resource is becoming a major challenge in Ethiopia. There is growing evidence that shows Ethiopia is diving into worsened events of climate change, including drought and flood (FAO, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>; Ketema and Dwarakish, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">2021</xref>). One of the great manifestations of the impact of climate change on Ethiopia includes the occurrence of eight major droughts in the past 15 years, which had significant adverse consequences for the economy and livelihoods (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">2020</xref>). Drought risks are high in most eastern basins, and almost 90% of drought-prone regions are in lowland areas (Nanki et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">2010</xref>). Climate change is also creating flood risks in several basins, particularly in the Awash and Wabi-Shebelle Basins and in parts of the Great Rift Valley (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">2018</xref>). Studies reported that between 1991 and 2019, floods resulted in 3,000 deaths, displaced 1.3 million people, and lost 250,000 cattle and half a million hectares of cropland (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">2019</xref>). In the previous decades, Ethiopia faced multiple natural hazards, including floods, landslides, epidemic diseases, and storms (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T3">Table 3</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T3">
<label>Table 3</label>
<caption><p>Natural disasters in Ethiopia, 1900&#x02013;2020.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Natural</bold><break/> <bold>hazard 1900&#x02013;2020</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Subtype</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Events count</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Total deaths</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Total death</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Total damage</bold><break/> <bold>(&#x02018;000 USD)</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Drought</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Drought</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">16</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">77,141,879</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">402,367</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,492,600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Earthquake</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ground Movement</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">2</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">585</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">24</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">320</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Epidemic</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Bacterial Disease</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">16</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">134,551</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">10,999</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Viral Disease</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">6</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">4,819</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">156</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Parasitic Disease</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">25,000</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">157</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Flood</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Flash Flood</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">9</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,129,358</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">863</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">9,400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Riverine Flood</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">32</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,809,978</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1105</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">8900</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Landslide</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Landslide</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">215</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">93</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Mass Movement (dry)</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Landslide</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">13</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Volcanic Activity</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ash Fall</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">11,000</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">69</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Wildfire</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Forest Fire</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p><italic>Source: A climate risk country profile of Ethiopia (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">2020</xref>)</italic>.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Urbanization Trends and Demographic Dynamics in Ethiopia</title>
<p>Even though Ethiopia is still owning predominantly a rural population, in the previous two decades, urban population in Ethiopia has shown unprecedented growth. According to a world bank report, the Ethiopian urban population increased from 21,609,825 in 2017 to 24,941,349 in 2020. Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency also reported that the share of the urban population is about 20% of the total country&#x00027;s population. As compared to other developing countries, Ethiopia&#x00027;s urbanization level is still in its lowest stage. It is far below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 37%. However, according to official figures from the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency, Ethiopian urbanization is also well-known for its highest urban population growth rate that increasing from 3.8% in a year to 5.4% results a tripling of the urban population earlier than 2034 (World Bank Group, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B78">2015</xref>).</p>
<p>Recent urbanization-related studies have also suggested that a high growth rate of the urban population will continue and will result in a higher level of urbanization within the coming couple of years. The urban-rural migration, rural village annexation, and informal settlements are expected to change the urban population growth dynamics. According to Angel et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">2013</xref>), regional capital cities in Ethiopia are expected to grow more than three times the 2010 population size by 2040. For example, Hawassa will grow to more than 6-fold its 2010 population by 2040 and Mekelle to almost 5-fold of its 2010. All in all, Ethiopian urbanization is experiencing rapid population growth, and there is an increase in medium, small, and emerging urban centers. Based on the 2007 national census, the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency officially recognized a total of 973 urban centers in Ethiopia. Today, there are about 1,119 urban centers. These realities have already started to impact the demand and supply of any resource flow in the urban areas. Particularly, the gap between water supply and demand is huge in most urban centers of Ethiopia (Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">2015</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="materials and methods" id="s3">
<title>Materials and Methods</title>
<sec>
<title>Description of the Study Area</title>
<p>Ethiopia, sometimes known as the Horn of Africa, is a country in northern Africa (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2</xref>). Ethiopia is bordered on the north by Eritrea, on the northeast by Djibouti, on the east by Somalia, on the south by Kenya, and on the west by South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia has 12 river basins, with a total annual runoff volume of 122 billion m<sup>3</sup> and a groundwater potential of 2.6&#x02013;6.5 billion m<sup>3</sup>. Ethiopia has enormous water resources and is home to the headwaters of many transnational rivers, including the Nile. Tana (Abay Basin) is Ethiopia&#x00027;s largest lake and a significant water source for the Nile River. In the Nile and Rift Valley Basins, Ethiopia has 1.8 million hectares of wetlands and floodplains. The country has a total area of 1,126,829 square kilometers. With a population of almost 110 million people, it is Africa&#x00027;s second-most populous country after Nigeria. Ethiopia&#x00027;s population growth rate (4.5%) is far above the global average and among Africa&#x00027;s highest. Ethiopia is one of Africa&#x00027;s least urbanized countries, with only 20% of the total population living in urban centers. Urbanization is anticipated to double in the next few decades. As a result, the country&#x00027;s future development and water resource use will be shaped by the dual pressures of rapid urbanization and high population increase, as well as climate change.</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float">
<label>Figure 2</label>
<caption><p>A location map of Ethiopia.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0002.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Data Source and Collection Method</title>
<sec>
<title>Data Source</title>
<p>The researchers used a deductive exploratory (quantitative) research technique that was supported by secondary data review and spatial analysis using GIS and remote sensing techniques. The secondary data review is conducted using desk review and a literature review of &#x0201C;Water Availability Indices.&#x0201D; The desk review is used to collect, organize, and synthesize the available water-related information. As a result, the researchers gain a better understanding of the country&#x00027;s context, water risk priorities, and water stewardship trends. Scanning the literature, analyzing secondary data, and converting analog (hardcopy) maps to digital maps are also important steps in this data collection process. The &#x0201C;Water Availability Indices&#x0201D; literature review is also utilized to adopt related water stress measurement indicators, such as Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA), Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) with Environmental Water Requirement, and Falkenmark Indicator, whereas spatial analysis, also known as locational analysis, is used to create geographical data and generate various maps and quantitative evidence to understand where water risk situations occur, map the distribution of urban centers in water risk zones, and visualize the interrelationships between urban centers&#x00027; location and water resource potential at the country and basin levels through maps. The study also makes use of official data from global, regional, and country-level sources. The global data are obtained from the AQUASTAT database of FAO and World Resource Institute (water resource); country data are obtained from the Ethiopian Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, Ethiopian Ministry of Water Development Commission, Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency, Ethiopian Meteorology Agency, Ethiopian Ministry of Urban Development and Construction (MUDC) and EthioGIS Map-Server Ethiopia (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T4">Table 4</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T4">
<label>Table 4</label>
<caption><p>Spatial and non-spatial data sources.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Type</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Data description</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Format</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Sources/Link/</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Spatial</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Groundwater Potential Zone</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Raster</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ethiopian Geological Survey</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ethiopian population density</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Raster</td>
<td valign="top" align="left"><ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.worldpop.org/geodata/summary?id=29691">https://www.worldpop.org/geodata/summary?id=29691</ext-link> WorldPop (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.worldpop.org">www.worldpop.org</ext-link>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Annual spatial distribution of rainfall</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Raster</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">FAO (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://wapor.apps.fao.org/catalog/WAPOR_2/">https://wapor.apps.fao.org/catalog/WAPOR_2/</ext-link>) and <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.ethiogis-mapserver.org/">https://www.ethiogis-mapserver.org/</ext-link></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Previous water stress maps</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Raster</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">WRI (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.wri.org/insights/strategies-water-risk-insecurity-ethiopia">https://www.wri.org/insights/strategies-water-risk-insecurity-ethiopia</ext-link>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Major River Basins</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Vector</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Boundaries (country, basin and regional boundaries)</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Vector</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ethiopian Ministry of Urban Development and Construction (MUDC) (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.ethiogis-mapserver.org/login.php">https://www.ethiogis-mapserver.org/login.php</ext-link>)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Non spatial</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">GTP (growth and transformation plan)</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Document</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Population statistic</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Document</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">The Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia (CSA) <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/">https://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/</ext-link></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Manuals, directives and proclamations</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Document</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">From all related sectors</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Water stress indicators and indexes</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Document</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Published articles, books and reports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Basin level master plan analog maps</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Maps</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity library</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="left">Basin level master plan report</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Document</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity library</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods to Estimate Water Stress at Country and Basin Levels</title>
<p>A combination of two complementary &#x0201C;water stress-&#x0201D; measuring indexes termed &#x0201C;Water Availability Per Person Index&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;Water Stress Index with Environmental Water Requirement&#x0201D; are used to measure water stress at the country and basin levels. FAO and UN Water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">2021</xref>) agreed on a technique for estimating water stress based on water withdrawals. The ratio between total freshwater withdrawal (TFWW) by all key sectors and total renewable freshwater resources (TRWR) when environmental flow needs (EFR) are taken into account is the formula expressed by Equation 3. The &#x0201C;Water Availability Per Person Index,&#x0201D; also known as the &#x0201C;Falkenmark Indicator,&#x0201D; is used to calculate basin-level &#x0201C;water stress.&#x0201D; Only the &#x0201C;Water Availability Per Person Index&#x0201D; was used to quantify water stress at the basin level due to a lack of precise data on water extraction in each basin (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float">
<label>Figure 3</label>
<caption><p>A flow chart of methodological approach to estimate a water stress level at basin and country levels.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0003.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s4">
<title>Results and Discussion</title>
<sec>
<title>Distribution of Urban Centers at a Major Basin Level</title>
<p>The relationship between urbanization and the distribution of urban centers at the basin level in Ethiopia has not been adequately researched. Understanding and defining water resource allocation strategy in the face of rising urbanization and climate change require knowing the percentage of the urban population and the number of urban centers in each basin (McDonald et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">2014</xref>). This study also attempts to map and quantify the number of urban centers in each basin based on these considerations (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref>). As a result, out of Ethiopia&#x00027;s 1,119 urban centers, this study found that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>194 urban centers (17%) are located in the Abay basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>175 urban centers (16%) are located at the GenaleDawa basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>140 urban centers (13%) are located at the Omo-gibe basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>115 urban centers (10%) are located at the Awash basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>114 urban centers (10%) are located at the Wabishebele basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>55 urban centers (5%) are located in the Baro-Akobo basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>8 urban centers (1%) are located in the Mereb basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>61 urban centers (6%) are located in the Rift valley basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>78 urban centers (7%) are located in the Tekeze basin.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>178 urban centers (15%) are located in the dry basins, such as Danakil, Ogaden, and Aysha.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F4" position="float">
<label>Figure 4</label>
<caption><p>Distribution of urban centers by major river basins. Source: GIS analysis by superimposing urban centers and basin thematic layers (2022).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0004.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>According to previous basin level studies, four basins in Ethiopia, the Abbay, Baro-Akobo, Mereb, and Tekeze basins cover around 40% of the country&#x00027;s spatial extent and 70% of the country&#x00027;s surface water sources, where the population size is no more than 30&#x02013;40%. Genale-Dawa and Wabishebel basins cover &#x0007E;33% of the country&#x00027;s spatial extent and 8% of the country&#x00027;s surface water sources (Ayalew, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">2018</xref>). Two basins, The Omo-Gibe and Rift Valley Lake basins, cover around 4% of the country&#x00027;s land area and 18% of the country&#x00027;s surface water sources. The awash basin covers around 10% of the country&#x00027;s land area and 4% of the country&#x00027;s surface water sources. Meanwhile, the three eastern river basins of Afar-Danakil, Aysha, and Ogaden, which are nearly dry, represent around 13% of the country&#x00027;s total area (Melesse et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Groundwater Potential Zones and Distribution of Urban Center of Ethiopia</title>
<p>This study looks at the relationship between groundwater protentional distribution and urban center spatial locations. As a result of the analysis, it appears that there are a substantial number of urban centers located in a low groundwater potential zone that is exposed to groundwater stress (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure 5</xref>). The GIS spatial analysis, which involved superimposing urban centers and groundwater potential zone layers, revealed the following facts:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Approximately 25,562,371 (23%) of the total population resides in low groundwater potential.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 84,437,629 (77%) of the population resides in moderately and high groundwater potential.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 5,112,473 (20.35%) urban population and 369 (33%) urban centers reside in low groundwater potential zones.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 20,006,437.70 (79.65%) urban population and 750 (77%) urban centers are located in moderate to high groundwater potential zones.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F5" position="float">
<label>Figure 5</label>
<caption><p>The groundwater resource potential of Ethiopia. Source: FDRE National Planning Commission (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">2016</xref>); Kebede et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">2018</xref>).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0005.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>In low-income countries, groundwater is frequently regarded as the primary source of local water supply (Carrard et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">2019</xref>). Similarly, both urban and rural Ethiopians rely on groundwater for 70&#x02013;80% of their household water supply. However, due to increased extraction and consumption, groundwater in urban areas is under severe pressure, resulting in water stress (Mengistu et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">2021</xref>). Furthermore, despite the fact that groundwater research in Ethiopia is scarce, there is widespread agreement that unequal spatial distribution of groundwater potential leads to uneven water stress distribution (Razack et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">2020</xref>). The most vulnerable to groundwater stress are urban areas (Herbert, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">2019</xref>). According to Zablon et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">2021</xref>), six of the 10 capital cities are located in locations with high or extremely high water stress.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Annual Spatial Distribution of Rainfall and Distribution of Urban Centers in Ethiopia</title>
<p>In Ethiopia, even though much research has been conducted on rainfall and its spatial distribution, there are limited pieces of research that deal with the link between the annual spatial distribution of rainfall and the distribution of urban centers and their susceptibility to the occurrence of water stress. This research analyzes the spatial trends of rainfall and their association with the distribution of urban centers in Ethiopia. Based on the spatial analysis (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6</xref>), this research found that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Approximately 315 urban centers (28.15%) are located in an area that receives &#x0003C;100-mm mean annual rainfall.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 487 urban centers (43.52%) are located in an area that receives 100&#x02013;200-mm mean annual rainfall.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 317 urban centers (28.33%) are located in an area that receives &#x0003E;2,300 mm.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F6" position="float">
<label>Figure 6</label>
<caption><p>Spatial variability of the mean annual rainfall in Ethiopia and location of urban centers. Source: the FAO dataset.</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0006.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Rainfall variability in Ethiopia influences surface water and groundwater distribution potential (Weldegerima et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">2018</xref>). According to Melesse et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>), the magnitude of the mean annual rainfall in Ethiopia&#x00027;s southeast, east, and northeast borders is as low as 200 mm and primarily encompasses dry basins, such as Afar-Danakil, Aysha, and Ogaden. This means that urban areas receiving &#x0003C;200 mm of yearly rainfall are experiencing water stress. Adane et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">2021</xref>) also stated that Ethiopian urban centers are and will be extremely sensitive to water-related threats now and in the coming decades.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Water Resources, Climate Change, and Urbanization in Ethiopia</title>
<p>Ethiopia is now considered one of the world&#x00027;s most drought-prone countries as a result of erratic and uneven rainfall distribution as well as increasing climate change (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7</xref>). This study also attempted to assess the urban settlement pattern concerning Ethiopia&#x00027;s drought likelihood map and found:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Approximately 307 urban centers (28%) are located in high-drought probability areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 438 urban centers (39%) are located in medium drought probability areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 374 urban centers (33%) are located in low-drought probability areas.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F7" position="float">
<label>Figure 7</label>
<caption><p>A drought probability map of Ethiopia and location of urban centers. Source: A drought probability map adopted from Ministry of Water Resources National Meteorological Agency (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">2007</xref>).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0007.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>According to the World Bank (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">2019</xref>), climate change is having a significant influence on Ethiopia&#x00027;s water resources, wetlands, and ecology. Ethiopia is ranked 5th out of 184 countries in terms of drought occurrence. Since 2010, 12 catastrophic droughts have killed over 400,000 individuals and affected over 54 million people, according to reports (World Bank Group, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">2021</xref>). Ethiopia has regularly faced catastrophic occurrences, such as droughts and floods, as well as rainfall variability and rising temperatures, all of which have harmed livelihoods (Ministry of Environment Forest, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">2015</xref>).</p>
<p>Climate change is causing higher rainfall and increased flood hazards in Ethiopia, particularly in lowland areas (Ethiopian Panel on Climate Change, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">2015</xref>). This study also attempted to investigate the spatial distribution of urban centers with Ethiopia&#x00027;s flood-prone map (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8</xref>) and discovered that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Approximately 307 urban centers (27%) are located in major flooding areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 317 urban centers (28%) are located in moderate flooding areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 186 urban centers (17%) are located in minor flooding areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Approximately 309 urban centers (28%) are located in the safest areas.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F8" position="float">
<label>Figure 8</label>
<caption><p>Flood-prone areas in Ethiopia. Source: Adopted from Ethiopian Development Research Institute/Global Green Growth Institute (EDRI/GGGI) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">2015</xref>).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0008.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Ethiopia is also prone to flooding, ranking 34th out of 162 countries in terms of flooding risk and 5th in terms of landslide risk (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">2019</xref>). Natural disasters like flooding and drought, along with uneven topography, result in a population that is highly marginalized (WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B72">2020</xref>). Domestic water supplies, such as deep and hand-dug wells, irrigation canals, and developed and undeveloped springs, are, on the other hand, decreasing in quantity due to delayed rainfall and reduced rainfall levels (Nanki et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">2010</xref>). Climate change has a noticeable impact on urban infrastructure in that severe rainfall is a typical occurrence, causing floods and causing damage to urban infrastructures like roads and ridges (World Bank, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">2010</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Country-Level Water Stress: Analyzed Using the Falkenmark Index (Water Availability per Person per Year</title>
<p>This analysis uses Falkenmark&#x00027;s technique of &#x0201C;Water Availability Per Person Index&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA),&#x0201D; with &#x0201C;Environmental Water Requirement&#x0201D; indexes to assess water stress at the country level. The first method takes into account a country&#x00027;s total population to total yearly runoff ratio. In this context, Ethiopia&#x00027;s overall population is estimated to be 110 million people, while the country&#x00027;s total annual surface runoff is anticipated to be around 122 billion m3. Using the Falkenmark index, the annual water availability per person is calculated to be 1,109 m<sup>3</sup>. According to Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">1986</xref>), water stress occurs when yearly water availability falls below 1,700 m<sup>3</sup> per person, water scarcity happens when annual water availability falls below 1,000 m<sup>3</sup> per person, and absolute scarcity occurs when annual water availability falls below 500 m<sup>3</sup>. As a result of the water availability per-person-index water stress indicators, Ethiopia is currently experiencing water stress.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Country-Level Water Stress: Analyzed Using Fresh Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio (WTA) With Environmental Water Requirement</title>
<p>Ethiopia&#x00027;s annual freshwater withdrawal is estimated to be 10.55 billion cubic meters per year, with a total renewable freshwater resource (TRWR) of 122 billion cubic meters per year (the sum of TRWR and ERWR). Total annual water withdrawals in Ethiopia grew from 5.6 billion cubic meters in 1997 to 10.5 billion cubic meters in 2017. The water withdrawal-to-availability ratio is calculated using these figures and Equation 3. Based on the stated indicator and equation, the water withdrawal-to-availability ratio with environmental water requirement is found to be 13% (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T5">Table 5</xref>). According to UN-Water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">2021</xref>), if the yearly freshwater withdrawal-to-availability ratio is &#x0003C;25%, it is deemed to be under no stress. Meanwhile, the country is considered water-stressed when the numbers exceed 25%. As a result, Ethiopia is not experiencing water stress at present time. Water stress on a wide scale, such as country, region, and global levels, on the other hand, is less likely to provide accurate information about water stress since the detailed variability that exists at major basin levels in a country can be obscured (FAO and UN Water, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">2021</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T5">
<label>Table 5</label>
<caption><p>Total renewable freshwater resources (TRWR) and total freshwater withdrawn (TFWW) of Ethiopia and its implication for water stress.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Year</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>TFWW</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>TRWR</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>EFR</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Water</bold></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th/>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>(Billion m3/year)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>(Billion m3/year)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>(Billion m3/year)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>stress (%)</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">1993&#x02013;1997</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5.558</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">122</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">37</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">1998&#x02013;2002</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">8.35</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">122</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">37</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">2008&#x02013;2012</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">9.571</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">122</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">37</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">11.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">2013-present</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">10.55</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">122</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">37</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">13%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p><italic>Source: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.fao.org/aquastat/statistics/query/results.html">http://www.fao.org/aquastat/statistics/query/results.html</ext-link> and researchers&#x00027; water stress competition</italic>.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Basin-Level Water Stress: Analyzed Using the Falkenmark Index</title>
<p>Measuring water stress at the national level yields a crude answer that ignores the country&#x00027;s uneven distribution of water resources. As a result, assessing the water stress at the basin level must be done at the same time. The total basin population and total yearly surface runoff must be known to assess basin-level water stress. The total annual surface runoff of each basin is obtained from published data (Melesse et al., <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">2013</xref>; Ayalew, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">2018</xref>). The total population of each basin was calculated using the WorldPop population density grid map (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.worldpop.org">www.worldpop.org</ext-link>). By combining the population number and annual discharge of each basin (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9">Figure 9</xref> and <xref ref-type="table" rid="T6">Table 6</xref>), this study found that:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>A population of about 45,643,966 (41.6%) live at basins that are under absolute water scarcity that receives &#x0003C;500 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>A population of about 31,897,939 (29%) live in a water-scarce basin that receives 500&#x02013;1,000 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>A population of about 27,125,642 (24.6%) live in a stressed basin that receives 1,000&#x02013;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>A population of about 5,332,450 (4.8%) lives in a no-water stress basin that receives &#x0003E;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
</list>
<fig id="F9" position="float">
<label>Figure 9</label>
<caption><p>A basin-level water stress map based on water availability per person index. Source: Researchers&#x00027; basin-level water stress estimation using (Falkenmark, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>) and researchers GIS spatial analysis (2022).</p></caption>
<graphic mimetype="image" mime-subtype="tiff" xlink:href="frwa-04-890229-g0009.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap position="float" id="T6">
<label>Table 6</label>
<caption><p>A level of water stress at major river basins of Ethiopia.</p></caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Name</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Population density/km<sup><bold>2</bold></sup></bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Total population</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Annual runoff (x106m<sup><bold>3</bold></sup>)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="center"><bold>Stress (m<sup><bold>3</bold></sup> per capita /year)</bold></th>
<th valign="top" align="left"><bold>Implication</bold></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Abay</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">162.15</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">27,125,642</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">52.60</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1623.50</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Stressed</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Awash</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">168.52</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">15,901,125</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">4.60</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">242.20</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Baro-Akobo</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">85.95</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5,332,450</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">23.60</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3705.37</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">No stress</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">GenaleDawa</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">56.58</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">8,103,026</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5.88</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">607.54</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Mereb</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">171.46</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">846,950</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.26</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">257.02</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Omo-gibe</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">228.25</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">14,944,033</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">16.96</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">950.18</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Rift valley</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">293.22</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">12,947,176</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">5.64</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">364.71</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Tekeze</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">117.46</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">8,850,880</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">7.63</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">721.75</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Wabishebele</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">71.99</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">12,067,381</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">3.16</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">219.24</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Danakil</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">39.82</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">2,467,128</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.86</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">291.85</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Ogaden</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">21.28</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">1,373,863</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.00</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.00</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Aysha</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">21.90</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">40,343</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.00</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">0.00</td>
<td valign="top" align="left">Absolute scarcity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" align="left">Total</td>
<td/>
<td valign="top" align="center">110,000,000</td>
<td valign="top" align="center">121.19</td>
<td/>
<td/>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p><italic>Source: Researchers&#x00027; basin-level water stress estimation using Falkenmark (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">1989</xref>) and researchers GIS spatial analysis (2022)</italic>.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>Among all basins,</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Awash, Mereb, Rift valley, Wabishebele, Danakil, Ogaden, and Aysha basins are faced with absolute water scarcity that receives &#x0003C;500 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Genale Dawa, Omo-gibe, and Tekeze basins are categorized under scarce water basins, which offer 500&#x02013;1,000 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Abay basin belongs to the water stress category that offers 1,000&#x02013;1,700 m<sup>3</sup> <italic>per capita</italic> per year.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>The Baro-Akobo basin is the only basin in the country that is not challenged by water stress.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>In this context, FAO (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">2016</xref>) stated that all river basins, with the exception of the Nile, are experiencing water shortages. The Awash Basin is also one of Ethiopia&#x00027;s most water-stressed basins (Sustainable Water Partnership, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">2021</xref>). According to World Bank (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">2020</xref>), the WabiShebele River basin has the largest area coverage and is classified as water scarce due to low annual flow. According to Awulachew et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">2007</xref>) three of the 12 major river basins, the Ogaden, Aysaha, and Danakil, are designated dry basins.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s5">
<title>Limitation and Future Research Direction</title>
<p>The analysis results of this investigation have key limitations and considerations. First, the Falkenmark indicator was used to quantify basin-level water stress analysis. Water stress caused by the freshwater withdrawal-to-availability ratio was not measured due to a lack of data on water withdrawal in each basin. Second, the water stress map only depicts physical water shortage and ignores economic water scarcity, and, third, total renewable water resources do not include lakes and other water reservoirs. As a result, future research will be focused on overcoming these limitations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s6">
<title>Conclusion and Way Forward</title>
<p>Climate change, in combination with urbanization and laissez-faire water management, is already worsening water risks. In many ways, the worst effects of the combined variables will persist as long as current water management practices remain unchanged. As a result, a better water-centric policy is required across all sectors, such as climate change adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction to manage water-related risks. Tracking water risks, such as water stress, drought, and flooding features, is a crucial prerequisite for such policy orientation. Most significantly, determining the level of water stress in a given geographic area requires mapping and quantifying the water stress level. Due to the dynamic nature of water stress, even a country or basin that appears to be safe today might become a water stress hotspot unless quick water-centric corrective policies are implemented. As most developing countries are responsible for rising urbanization, developing countries are on the front lines to face the numerous challenges of water risks. The same is true for Ethiopia, which seems, at face value, a non-stressed country. There are real concerns in Ethiopia that the country as a whole and its basins in particular and significant urban centers are experiencing water stress, such as:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>At the country level, the seemingly safe water-stress level statistic masks true water stress in important river basins.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Water stress is a dynamic and cross-cutting issue that is always changing in response to population and environmental factors.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>More water-stressed basins are being created in the country as a result of spatial and temporal rainfall irregularities.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Uneven surface and groundwater potential distribution is undermining urban livability. Furthermore, the increasing urban population and climate change are expected to worsen water-related problems in the country in the future decades.</p></list-item>
</list>
<p>In general, this research suggests that the combination of a population, exceeding 110 million people with unwise water resource management, could result in a water crisis. As a result, this possibility necessitates a rethinking of water policy that incorporates community water use attitudes, water-saving technology, water-sensitive regional planning, and water-centric legal frameworks that can provide short- and long-term solutions to alleviate ongoing water stress before it becomes irreversible. The following section discusses potential measures for reducing growing water stress in developing countries, in general, and Ethiopia, in particular.</p>
<sec>
<title>Integrating Groundwater Development With Water-Sensitive Land Use Planning</title>
<p>In developing countries, urban expansion, increasing water demand, along with unguided spatial planning practices are threatening the sustainability of groundwater. Therefore, a development plan that integrates both groundwater development and spatial planning is mandatory. In areas where there is continuous groundwater utilization and pollution, protection and rehabilitation plans are required. For this, the following actions are important:</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Preparing and implementing groundwater management plans at national, regional, and city scales.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Groundwater management should be based on an integrated water management approach that includes surface water, conservation, water quality, and reuse management strategies.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Establishing a groundwater budget model and a water-sensitive management plan for its long-term sustainable utilization that minimizes its long-term overdraft.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Promoting water-wise groundwater utilization in all sectors, such as agriculture and industry and domestic water users.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Revision of Basin Master Plans and Optimizing River Basin Planning and Water Allocation</title>
<p>In a time of climate change, intensified water use, and uncontrolled land-use change, ensuring sustainable water management at all spatial scales is a challenging task. To address this challenge, there should be integrated basin-scale master plans that take into consideration the range of water utilization. There are indications that the water withdrawal is exceeding the available water in most basins, and they are becoming stressed due to prolonged droughts and more extreme rainfall events. To confront these challenges, a basin master plan that responds to the growing water demand and business as usual water withdrawal is important. The following points are important to ensure efficient water allocation.</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Special attention should be given to drought-prone and water-stressed basins.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Introducing and implementing demand management measures to improve water use efficiency in all water-using sectors.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Promoting appropriate watershed management practices to promote water conservation, maximize water yields, and improve water quality.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Establishing appropriate and effective river basin management institutions.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Developing and enacting suitable legislation that will provide an enabling framework for sustainable and effective water resources development and management.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Developing and Implementing Comprehensive Plan of Action to Address Water-Related Disasters</title>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item><p>Undertaking frequent and systematic forecasting of floods and installing automatic recorders at the strategic sites in the flood-prone areas to record flood levels.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Determining flood characteristics of the area and issuing timely flood warnings and establishing flood-plain zoning.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Explore options for possible transfer of water from water surplus regions to drought-prone or water-deficit areas.</p></list-item>
<list-item><p>Develop and implement schemes that encourage voluntary resettlement of people from water-scarce areas to water surplus areas.</p></list-item>
</list>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Linking &#x0201C;Top-Down&#x0201D; and &#x0201C;Bottom-Up&#x0201D; Approaches of Water Management Practices</title>
<p>So far, microscale water conservation measures have been used to restore water bodies and water shades. However, such techniques are not connected to bigger water conservation efforts that encompass river basins and other bodies of water. As a result, a more comprehensive and top-down water management policy should be backed up with bottom-up and indigenous water conservation practices. The two most essential characteristics that pave the way for integrated water management systems are the expansion of local knowledge and nature-based solutions at the local level.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Ensuring a Balance Between Freshwater Withdrawals and Available Water Resources</title>
<p>As previously stated, Ethiopia&#x00027;s water resources are unevenly distributed. The majority of the country&#x00027;s water development demands are carried by a few basins, resulting in an imbalance between water withdrawal and availability. To prevent tipping the scales, the government should rethink its water-related development goals in light of future sustainable water development goals.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Build Urban Water Resilience Strategies</title>
<p>The globe, as well as local contexts, is currently under the influence of urbanization. Hence, water development strategy should unquestionably be following urban growth prospects. Water management in urban areas is tilted toward the &#x0201C;supply side,&#x0201D; which is incompatible with long-term development. As a result, water resources are periodically depleted. This seeks to shift from a &#x0201C;supply-side&#x0201D; to a &#x0201C;demand-side&#x0201D; water management approach, which can be achieved by (i) increasing the efficiency of each water use, (ii) lowering losses in the water supply distribution networks, (iii) establishing a &#x0201C;water-sensitive community&#x0201D; through education, and (iv) introducing low-cost water-saving devices, such as water-saving toilets, faucets, and low-flow showers.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="data-availability" id="s7">
<title>Data Availability Statement</title>
<p>The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s8">
<title>Ethics Statement</title>
<p>The animal study was reviewed and approved by respect the codes. Written informed consent was obtained from the owners for the participation of their animals in this study.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s9">
<title>Author Contributions</title>
<p>TA contributed as PhD student. AT and GE contributed as supervisors. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="funding-information" id="s10">
<title>Funding</title>
<p>This research is part of Ph.D. work under the supervision of Addis Abba University.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="conf1">
<title>Conflict of Interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s11">
<title>Publisher&#x00027;s Note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<ack><p>The authors are grateful to the Ethiopian Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, Ethiopian Ministry of Water Development Commission, and Ethiopia Metrology Agency.</p>
</ack>
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