Infectious diseases transmitted by vectors are not just a local concern but a global public health problem. Arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika, as well as leishmaniasis, malaria, and Chagas, are considered relevant, causing high morbidity and mortality worldwide. These diseases, which are prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas, demand continuous epidemiological surveillance to curb their spread (1).

Parasitic diseases caused by Leishmania sp., Plasmodium sp., and Trypanosoma sp. are transmitted by sandflies, Anopheles, and triatomine, respectively (2). Leishmaniasis is a complex disease that can manifest in various ways, mainly in three clinical forms: cutaneous, mucocutaneous, and visceral. Each has different clinical characteristics and can vary in severity, some of which can be severe (3). Malaria, with symptoms of intermittent fever, chills, nausea, and fatigue, can lead to severe kidney and brain complications, and even death (4). Chagas disease has the potential to cause fever, fatigue, headache, body pain, and severe cardiac and gastrointestinal problems, and is endemic in Colombia and many countries with tropical climates (3).

In contrast, dengue, chikungunya, and zika are transmitted mainly to humans through the bite of female mosquitoes of the Aedes genus (5). The clinical manifestations of these arboviruses are similar at the beginning of the clinical presentation, and patients may present with fever, headache, rash, myalgia, and arthralgia (6). At the same time, these diseases are characterized by complications, such as microcephaly in newborns due to ZIKV (7, 8), chronic post-chikungunya joint disease, and severe dengue. They can also generate alterations such as shock due to plasma extravasation, respiratory difficulty, profuse bleeding, or severe organ involvement (9).

Owing to climate change, the vectors transmitting these diseases have extended their geographic distribution area to almost all continents (10). Indigenous cases of dengue, chikungunya, zika, and malaria have been reported in the United States (11–14). This is a clear indication of the urgent need for action. Temperature increase, a direct result of climate change, has significantly favored the life cycle of mosquitoes and the replication rate of the virus (15, 16). Temperatures between 26°C and 28°C increase the kinetics of development and survival in all stages of the genus Aedes (17). In addition, the eggs hatched at higher temperatures, which may indicate a possible adaptive physiological response.

Additionally, the impact of temperature on the behavior of the disease vectors is noteworthy. For instance, slightly higher temperatures of 28°C stimulate vectors to bite more frequently, thereby increasing the risk of disease transmission (17). This is particularly true for mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, because extreme temperatures, whether low or high, can disrupt their development and survival (18). Similarly, sandflies exposed to 18°C experienced a high mortality rate among their larvae and pupae (19). Conversely, triatomines thrive at temperatures above 28°C, which favors their life cycles (20).

Conversely, rainfall increased the number of vector reproduction sites and the survival of adults. Temporary “pools” become favorable habitats for the development of mosquito larvae, whereas moist and decomposing organic matter is practical for the development of sandflies (15). Following this train of thought in this line of thought, climate change is one of the most relevant global challenges, mainly in developing countries, where the burden of infectious diseases is usually significantly higher in countries with limited medical care, water, drinking water, and adequate housing, among others.

The present work aimed to study climatic variables and their relationship with vector-borne disease cases in Colombia from 2011 to 2021.

The research findings revealed that the dengue, chikungunya, and zika outbreaks were concentrated in Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, Atlántico, and Norte de Santander. These geographical patterns were consistent with the results obtained by Castrillón et al. (23). The data suggest that the disease behavior has remained relatively consistent since the initial records, with some variations over the years due to the vector’s geographic expansion (24). However, these departments exhibit distinct ecosystem variations that set them apart. The results also indicated that the climatic variables studied could not directly correlate with the increase in arboviruses in Colombia. For the chikungunya and zika outbreaks, it is believed that the strains were introduced from different countries and entered the Colombian Caribbean (25).

Other authors have reported that the increase in cases of arboviruses could be influenced by the Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (26). However, it is essential to highlight that the influence of ENSO on the dynamics of arboviruses is not stationary, as it varies according to time and space. For instance, during El Niño years, increased rainfall and warmer temperatures can create more breeding sites for mosquitoes, leading to a higher risk of arbovirus transmission. In Colombia, regions with high population densities, such as the Pacific and Andean regions, play a crucial role in the dynamic relationship between arboviruses and this index at a national scale. Other authors have stated that the strongest correlation between climate and dengue is observed when combining variables such as time speed, relative humidity, temperature, precipitation, and humidity (27). Therefore, when evaluating climatic variables independently, the increase or decrease in the cases of these diseases at a national scale could not be explained.

Although the variables evaluated in the present work showed that they do not directly influence the increase in cases, some studies indicate that temperature is a determinant in the survival of mosquitoes and their vectorial capacity (28). This would explain the number of cases of arboviruses in Colombian cities with temperatures below 35°C. In response to temperature changes, the genus Aedes adapted by hibernating in shaded areas during daylight hours in hot environments (29). The impact of temperature on the behavior of Aedes mosquitoes is a crucial factor that must be urgently understood. In areas with temperatures above 30°C, the ability of Ae. aegypti to fly decreases, which affects nutrition and host finding (28). In contrast, studies have shown that Ae. albopictus in environments with an average temperature of 27°C increases the transmission efficiency of ZIKV by 57% (30).

Therefore, it is essential to consider the biological cycles of the vectors in future research. The population dynamics of these vectors must be considered to elucidate the behavior and distribution of these diseases. A combination of biological and non-biological factors can determine the transmission patterns of these diseases. In South American countries, the risk of tropical diseases is not solely determined by environmental factors, such as temperature. Human factors, such as violence, migration, and armed conflict, also play an essential role, as do viruses, which increase the capacity of vectors (31). It is essential to consider non-biological factors such as the sociodemographic conditions of the populations and their proximity to the ecological niches of the vectors. These elements are often decisive in determining the disease incidence. Within a city, there may be areas with a higher risk of infection, mainly near bodies of water, that promote mosquito population growth (32).

Regarding the geographic distribution of malaria, it was observed that the departments with the highest prevalence of this disease presented favorable climatic conditions for developing Anopheles mosquitoes. However, these regions also present distinctive ecosystem variations that influence vector dynamics. The unique ecosystem variations in different regions, such as the tropical forests and high humidity in Choco (33) and the savannas and dry forests in Cordoba (34), add a layer of complexity to the understanding of malaria distribution. Stratification of climatic data by department is essential to clarify these relationships. Effective surveillance and control systems in each department, such as prioritization of malaria cases and diagnosis in Chocó by health entities (35), could also contribute. Furthermore, the resistance of P. falciparum to drugs such as chloroquine and amodiaquine further complicates efforts to reduce the number of cases in this region (36).

Furthermore, mining has become an influential factor in the number of malaria cases in the Chocó department (37). Colombia, specifically the Pacific region, is an area where gold extraction points are concentrated. The mobility of unexposed populations to endemic areas in search of work contributes to around 3% of malaria cases (38). In these areas, people work outdoors and are exposed to mosquito bites daily for long periods. Furthermore, these areas often lack adequate healthcare and disease prevention measures (38).

As in previous studies (39), the analyses indicated an association between rainfall and the incidence of malaria. Precipitation has emerged as one of the factors affecting malaria cases (35). The incorporation of precipitation into models has even improved prediction accuracy (40). In this study, the analysis indicates that for every 1 cm³ increase in precipitation, an increase of 1.47 malaria cases is estimated, with a coefficient of 1.469 (p < 0.001). Although rainfall appears to be a key factor in the increase in malaria cases, other associated factors need to be included.

Although precipitation can account for the increase in malaria cases, it is crucial to gauge the model’s reach using the coefficient of determination. R2 yielded a value of 0.1792, indicating that precipitation could elucidate the variability in 18% of the cases. The remaining percentage could be due to other factors, such as vector exposure risk, sociodemographic conditions, and government public health actions (40). However, the impact of climate change on vector distribution may be predictable, and the relationship between temperature and the efficiency of vector-borne pathogen transmission is a complex puzzle, sometimes yielding seemingly contradictory inferences (39).

The study period saw Outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were primarily concentrated in the departments of Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, Atlántico, and Norte de Santander, respectively. Parasitic infections, on the other hand, exhibited more diverse behavior. With the exception of malaria, the distribution of cases did not directly correlate with temperature and precipitation. Climatic variations alone cannot explain the epidemiological patterns of the analyzed diseases. The data from this study point to the need to better understand the factors involved in the transmission of the diseases studied, beyond climatic factors.

The primary focus of this study was the association of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, chagas, malaria, and leishmania with climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation. Although this focus is crucial, it is important to note that it may not fully capture the complexity of the factors that influence the dynamics of these tropical diseases. Sociodemographic aspects, population mobility, and vector resistance, for instance, were not within the study’s scope. However, the findings of this study still hold significant value and impact in understanding the epidemiological dynamics of these diseases in Colombia.