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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Sustain. Food Syst.</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Sustain. Food Syst.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2571-581X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/fsufs.2026.1746394</article-id>
<article-version article-version-type="Version of Record" vocab="NISO-RP-8-2008"/>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Digital rural development and agricultural green total factor productivity: evidence from China</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Zhiqiang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001"><sup>&#x002A;</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/3221753"/>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="conceptualization" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/conceptualization/">Conceptualization</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-review-editing/">Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; original draft" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">Writing &#x2013; original draft</role>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Deng</surname>
<given-names>Qunzhao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001"><sup>&#x002A;</sup></xref>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; original draft" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">Writing &#x2013; original draft</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-review-editing/">Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing</role>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Du</surname>
<given-names>Haijiao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Data curation" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/data-curation/">Data curation</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-review-editing/">Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing</role>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Yu</surname>
<given-names>Weiyuan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-review-editing/">Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Formal analysis" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/formal-analysis/">Formal analysis</role>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Wan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-review-editing/">Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing</role>
<role vocab="credit" vocab-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/" vocab-term="Formal analysis" vocab-term-identifier="https://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/formal-analysis/">Formal analysis</role>
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</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>School of Public Policy and Administration, Nanchang University</institution>, <city>Nanchang</city>, <country country="cn">China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>Office of International Affairs, Delaware State University</institution>, <city>Dover</city>, <state>DE</state>, <country country="us">United States</country></aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="c001"><label>&#x002A;</label>Correspondence: Zhiqiang Zhang, <email xlink:href="mailto:352204219002@email.ncu.edu.cn">352204219002@email.ncu.edu.cn</email>; Qunzhao Deng, <email xlink:href="mailto:dengqz@ncu.edu.cn">dengqz@ncu.edu.cn</email></corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-02-27">
<day>27</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="collection">
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<elocation-id>1746394</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>14</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd">
<day>13</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>16</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#x00A9; 2026 Zhang, Deng, Du, Yu and Li.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Zhang, Deng, Du, Yu and Li</copyright-holder>
<license>
<ali:license_ref start_date="2026-02-27">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ali:license_ref>
<license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)</ext-link>. The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>This study investigates how digital rural development influences agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) in China, with particular attention to stage characteristics and regional heterogeneity. Using panel data from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022, we construct a multidimensional evaluation framework incorporating digital infrastructure, digital service capacity, and the digital development environment. A fixed-effects model is employed to estimate the overall impact, mediation models are used to examine the roles of factor allocation, organizational upgrading, and technology diffusion, and a panel threshold model is applied to identify nonlinear effects. The results show that digital rural development significantly enhances AGTFP, and this finding is robust to alternative measures, sample adjustments, and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analyses reveal that digitalization improves green efficiency by promoting labor mobility, expanding large-scale operations, strengthening cooperative development, and accelerating mechanization and agricultural R&#x0026;D. However, the positive effect of land transfer remains constrained by institutional frictions, limiting its contribution to green transformation. Threshold analyses indicate that the impact of digital infrastructure becomes stronger once a critical level is surpassed, whereas the marginal effect of digital services weakens at higher stages of development. Regional heterogeneity further shows that the positive effects are most pronounced in eastern provinces and in non-grain-producing regions. Overall, digital rural development functions as a multidimensional driver of agricultural green transformation, offering empirical evidence and policy insights for designing differentiated digitalization strategies that support sustainable agricultural development.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP)</kwd>
<kwd>digital rural development</kwd>
<kwd>factor allocation</kwd>
<kwd>organizational upgrading</kwd>
<kwd>regional heterogeneity</kwd>
<kwd>sustainable agriculture</kwd>
<kwd>technology diffusion</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group>
<funding-statement>The author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 724611021) and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (No. 20244BAA10051).</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
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<equation-count count="4"/>
<ref-count count="77"/>
<page-count count="14"/>
<word-count count="10851"/>
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<custom-meta-group>
<custom-meta>
<meta-name>section-at-acceptance</meta-name>
<meta-value>Agricultural and Food Economics</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec sec-type="intro" id="sec1">
<label>1</label>
<title>Introduction</title>
<p>The rapid expansion of the digital economy in recent years has substantially advanced rural digitalization in China. Nationwide, the targets of &#x201C;gigabit county connections, 5G coverage in every township, and broadband access in every village&#x201D; have largely been achieved. By 2024, over 90% of administrative villages had access to 5G networks, and rural internet penetration reached 63.8%. Meanwhile, digital applications&#x2014;such as online public services, smart agriculture, and digital breeding&#x2014;have become deeply embedded in rural production and governance. Globally, digital transformation is recognized as a key pathway toward sustainable food systems. From the perspective of the resource-based view, data have emerged as a new strategic resource that enhances productivity through digital technologies. The widespread adoption of these technologies in agriculture provides new opportunities to overcome resource and environmental constraints and to accelerate green transformation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">Hao et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref34">Liu et al., 2024a</xref>).</p>
<p>However, China&#x2019;s progress in agricultural green development remains limited. The excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides continues to cause non-point source pollution, resulting in a relatively low level of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Chen et al., 2022</xref>). This paradox&#x2014;rapid rural digitalization yet lagging green transformation&#x2014;raises a critical question: can digital rural development truly empower agricultural green transformation?</p>
<p>Previous studies provide preliminary evidence that rural digitalization enhances agricultural efficiency (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref41">Lu F. et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref42">Lu S. et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">Jia and Zhu, 2025</xref>). Yet, most research has focused on measuring the level of digital village development or assessing its direct effects on productivity, with limited exploration of the internal mechanisms and regional heterogeneity. Whether digitalization improves AGTFP depends on several empowerment channels, including the reduction of transaction costs, facilitation of factor mobility, upgrading of organizational structures, and diffusion of green technologies. These mechanisms may vary across development stages and regions due to differences in infrastructure, economic conditions, and environmental pressures.</p>
<p>To address these gaps, this study examines how digital rural development affects AGTFP, whether such effects are stage-dependent or region-specific, and through which mechanisms they operate. Using provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022, we integrate mediation and threshold models to identify key empowerment pathways and nonlinear characteristics. The findings provide theoretical insights and practical implications for promoting sustainable and regionally balanced agricultural digitalization.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2">
<label>2</label>
<title>Literature review and theoretical framework</title>
<sec id="sec3">
<label>2.1</label>
<title>Literature review</title>
<sec id="sec4">
<label>2.1.1</label>
<title>Digital economy and sectoral development</title>
<p>The digital economy, characterized by data as a key production factor and digital technologies as enabling tools, has been widely recognized as a fundamental driver of efficiency improvement and structural transformation across multiple sectors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Guo et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9004">Liu et al., 2025</xref>). Existing studies consistently show that the digital economy reshapes traditional production and governance systems by reducing information asymmetry, optimizing resource allocation, and accelerating technological innovation, thereby exerting broad economic, environmental, and social impacts (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref54">Wang J. et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref57">Wang X. et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref56">Wang L. et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref60">Wang Z. et al., 2023</xref>). Similar cross-sectoral effects of the digital economy have also been documented in the tourism sector, where digitalization promotes growth through online attention allocation and transportation infrastructure, as well as in rural human settlement improvement, highlighting its role in enhancing living environments beyond purely economic outcomes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref35">Liu and Huang, 2025</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref37">Liu et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Liu et al., 2024b</xref>).</p>
<p>From the perspective of environmental sustainability, a growing body of literature demonstrates that digital economy development significantly contributes to green outcomes. Empirical evidence from China indicates that the digital economy reduces carbon emissions and enhances carbon efficiency by promoting green technological innovation and upgrading industrial structure, with these effects exhibiting clear nonlinear characteristics and regional heterogeneity. Similar findings are reported in studies on energy systems, where digitalization alleviates energy poverty primarily through innovation-driven channels, and the positive effects only emerge after surpassing certain development thresholds (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref43">Lyu et al., 2023</xref>). These results highlight that the environmental dividends of the digital economy are neither automatic nor uniform, but depend critically on development stages and structural conditions.</p>
<p>Beyond environmental outcomes, the digital economy has also been shown to exert profound influences on social governance and public service provision. Recent studies focusing on rural China reveal that digital economy development improves public security by increasing non-agricultural employment opportunities and household income, thereby indirectly enhancing social stability (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref55">Wang et al., 2025</xref>). In the public health domain, interprovincial evidence suggests that the digital economy significantly raises medical and health service levels through improved resource allocation efficiency and coordinated regional development, while generating notable spatial spillover effects (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref61">Wei et al., 2025</xref>). Together, these findings underscore that the digital economy functions as a systemic force that reshapes factor mobility, institutional performance, and governance capacity across sectors.</p>
<p>Moreover, quasi-natural experimental studies further strengthen the causal interpretation of these relationships. Using the establishment of big data comprehensive pilot zones as an identification strategy, recent research confirms that digital economy development promotes high-quality economic growth through human capital accumulation and green technological innovation, with pronounced heterogeneity across regions, city sizes, and development stages (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Guo et al., 2023</xref>). This strand of literature emphasizes that the impacts of the digital economy are mediated by internal mechanisms and conditioned by structural environments, rather than operating through simple linear effects.</p>
<p>Overall, the existing evidence suggests that the digital economy is not merely a sector-specific technological upgrade, but a multidimensional development system capable of influencing economic performance, environmental sustainability, and social outcomes through resource reallocation, innovation diffusion, and institutional transformation. These cross-sectoral mechanisms, including resource reallocation, innovation diffusion, and institutional upgrading, are also highly relevant to agriculture, where factor mobility and technology adoption are central to green productivity improvements (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref49">Qian et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref50">Qing and Chen, 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref66">Zhang and Liu, 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec5">
<label>2.1.2</label>
<title>Determinants of agricultural green total factor productivity</title>
<p>Agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) has been widely used as a comprehensive indicator to assess the quality and sustainability of agricultural development, as it simultaneously incorporates desirable outputs and undesirable environmental impacts such as carbon emissions and non-point source pollution (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Chen et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref75">Zhu et al., 2022</xref>). A growing body of literature has examined the determinants of AGTFP, indicating that agricultural green productivity is jointly shaped by factor endowments and allocation efficiency, technological progress and diffusion, as well as institutional and environmental conditions.</p>
<p>First, factor endowment structure and allocation efficiency constitute fundamental determinants of AGTFP. Existing studies suggest that labor input quality, capital accumulation, and land use efficiency are closely associated with agricultural green productivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">Han et al., 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref73">Zhong et al., 2021</xref>). In particular, distortions in factor allocation and barriers to factor mobility tend to reduce production efficiency while intensifying environmental pressures, thereby constraining improvements in AGTFP (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref40">Liu et al., 2021</xref>). Optimizing the allocation of labor and capital across regions and sectors has therefore been identified as a critical pathway for enhancing agricultural green productivity.</p>
<p>Second, technological progress and the diffusion of agricultural technologies represent another key driver of AGTFP. Technological innovation not only improves production efficiency but also reduces resource consumption and pollution emissions through cleaner production methods and environmentally friendly input use (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref74">Zhou et al., 2023</xref>). Empirical evidence indicates that green technological innovation, mechanization, and the adoption of sustainable farming practices significantly enhance AGTFP; however, the effectiveness of technological progress depends critically on the speed and scope of technology diffusion, which varies across regions and stages of development (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">Fu and Zhang, 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref46">Mei et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>Third, institutional arrangements, environmental regulations, and external conditions also exert significant influences on AGTFP. Climate change, environmental constraints, and policy interventions affect agricultural green productivity through both direct and indirect channels. For example, adverse climate conditions&#x2014;such as rising temperatures and increased precipitation variability&#x2014;have been shown to exert nonlinear and regionally heterogeneous effects on China&#x2019;s AGTFP (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref51">Song et al., 2022</xref>). At the same time, appropriate environmental regulations and agricultural support policies can incentivize cleaner production behavior and stimulate green technological innovation, thereby contributing to improvements in agricultural green productivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref73">Zhong et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref74">Zhou et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<p>Overall, the existing literature indicates that AGTFP is the outcome of multiple interacting forces, including factor allocation efficiency, technological progress and diffusion, and institutional and environmental conditions. This body of research provides a solid foundation for examining how new development forces may further influence agricultural green productivity and underscores the importance of exploring the mechanisms through which such influences operate.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec6">
<label>2.1.3</label>
<title>Digital rural development and agricultural green total factor productivity</title>
<p>Building on the established determinants of AGTFP discussed above, recent studies have begun to explore digital rural development as a new development force that reshapes these traditional drivers rather than replacing them (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">Jingtao et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Liu and Liu, 2024b</xref>). As an extension of the digital economy into agriculture and rural areas, digital rural development integrates digital infrastructure, digital services, and supportive institutional environments, thereby transforming agricultural production conditions and rural factor allocation systems.</p>
<p>Existing empirical evidence suggests that digitalization-related factors can significantly enhance AGTFP through multiple channels (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref31">Li et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref71">Zhao et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref69">Zhang et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref53">Wan et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref63">Ye, 2025</xref>). In particular, studies on digital inclusive finance show that improved access to digital financial services alleviates farmers&#x2019; credit constraints, promotes investment in green technologies, and enhances production efficiency, ultimately contributing to higher AGTFP (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">Gao et al., 2022</xref>). Similarly, recent research demonstrates that digital finance promotes AGTFP indirectly by fostering digital village development, highlighting the mediating role of rural digital infrastructure and service capacity in transmitting digital dividends to agricultural green productivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">Jiang et al., 2024</xref>).</p>
<p>Beyond financial digitalization, a growing strand of literature emphasizes the importance of comprehensive digital rural development in improving agricultural green productivity. Digital infrastructure, such as broadband networks and information platforms, reduces information asymmetry and transaction costs, thereby facilitating the more efficient allocation of labor, capital, and land across agricultural activities (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref39">Liu and Zhou, 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">Chun et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref65">Zhai et al., 2023</xref>). Meanwhile, enhanced digital service capacity improves farmers&#x2019; access to market information, technical guidance, and public services, which in turn promotes organizational upgrading and the adoption of environmentally friendly production practices.</p>
<p>Digital rural development also plays a crucial role in accelerating the diffusion of green technologies and knowledge spillovers in agriculture. Through digital platforms and information networks, advanced agricultural technologies and sustainable farming practices can be disseminated more rapidly across regions, shortening the lag between innovation and adoption. This process not only enhances productivity but also mitigates environmental pressures by encouraging cleaner production methods and more efficient input use.</p>
<p>Taken together, existing studies suggest that digital rural development affects AGTFP primarily by reshaping factor allocation, facilitating organizational upgrading, and accelerating the diffusion of green technologies, although the strength and timing of these effects depend on regional development conditions and infrastructure endowments. In regions with insufficient digital infrastructure or limited human capital, the positive impacts of digitalization on agricultural green productivity may be constrained or delayed, implying the presence of nonlinear characteristics and regional heterogeneity.</p>
<p>Despite these contributions, existing studies exhibit several important limitations. First, much of the literature focuses on single dimensions of digitalization, such as digital finance, rather than conceptualizing digital rural development as an integrated system encompassing infrastructure, service capacity, and the broader development environment. Second, the internal mechanisms through which digital rural development influences AGTFP, particularly factor allocation, organizational upgrading, and technology diffusion, remain insufficiently examined. In addition, most existing studies rely on linear specifications and thus fail to capture potential threshold effects or stage-dependent dynamics, which may obscure the conditional nature of digital rural development&#x2019;s impact on agricultural green productivity. In particular, when digital infrastructure and service capacity remain below critical levels, the enabling effects of digital rural development may not fully materialize. Accordingly, this study conceptualizes digital rural development as a systemic and conditional driver of agricultural green transformation rather than a technological input. By constructing a multidimensional digital rural development index and empirically examining its effects on AGTFP through mechanism analysis, threshold modeling, and regional heterogeneity analysis, this study seeks to extend the existing literature and provide more nuanced evidence on how digital transformation contributes to sustainable agricultural development.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec7">
<label>2.2</label>
<title>Theoretical analysis and research hypotheses</title>
<sec id="sec8">
<label>2.2.1</label>
<title>Overall effect of digital rural development on agricultural green total factor productivity</title>
<p>Digital rural development&#x2014;anchored in digital infrastructure, service capacity, and the development environment&#x2014;facilitates the transformation and upgrading of agricultural production through multidimensional coordination, thereby enhancing agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). The construction of digital infrastructure enhances information acquisition and transmission efficiency, reduces transaction costs in production and circulation, and improves resource utilization (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">Cen et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">Du et al., 2022</xref>). Enhanced digital service capacity allows farmers easier access to markets and policy resources, strengthening operational flexibility and supporting the transition toward precision and green production (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">Gao and Lyu, 2023</xref>). Meanwhile, a supportive digital development environment&#x2014;characterized by stable energy supply, efficient transport, and industrial linkages&#x2014;creates favorable conditions for applying digital tools and disseminating green practices (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref67">Zhang Q. et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref68">Zhang Z. et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H1</italic>: Digital rural development significantly enhances agricultural green total factor productivity.</p>
</disp-quote>
</sec>
<sec id="sec9">
<label>2.2.2</label>
<title>Indirect effects: mediation mechanisms</title>
<sec id="sec10">
<label>2.2.2.1</label>
<title>Factor allocation efficiency</title>
<p>Institutional economics posits that transaction costs and information asymmetry hinder the free flow of production factors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref48">Pitelis and Teece, 2009</xref>). By advancing information infrastructure and e-commerce platforms, digital rural development improves the allocation efficiency of land and labor. The expansion of internet access and digital platforms reduces transaction costs in land transfers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref64">Yue et al., 2023</xref>), promotes off-farm employment, and facilitates large-scale operations. Transparent digital information also alleviates asymmetry, improving market matching. Furthermore, digital platforms create new employment and training opportunities, optimizing labor allocation and human capital utilization, thereby enhancing resource efficiency and AGTFP.</p>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H2</italic>: Digital rural development indirectly promotes AGTFP by improving the allocation efficiency of key factors such as land and labor.</p>
</disp-quote>
</sec>
<sec id="sec11">
<label>2.2.2.2</label>
<title>Organizational upgrading</title>
<p>According to collective action theory, the fragmented nature of smallholders hinders coordination in green agricultural production (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">Congleton, 2015</xref>). The rise of digital platforms fosters collaboration among cooperatives, family farms, agribusinesses, and individual farmers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref30">Li et al., 2024a</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref32">b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">Li W. et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">Han et al., 2023</xref>). These new organizational forms improve market access, information sharing, and resource integration while facilitating the collective adoption of green technologies and standardized production practices. Rural e-commerce cooperatives that leverage big data and logistics systems exemplify how digitalization enhances operational efficiency and reduces resource waste. Consequently, organizational upgrading strengthens specialization, fosters economies of scale, and accelerates the adoption of green technologies.</p>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H3</italic>: Digital rural development indirectly promotes AGTFP by fostering organizational upgrading and large-scale agricultural operations.</p>
</disp-quote>
</sec>
<sec id="sec12">
<label>2.2.2.3</label>
<title>Technology diffusion</title>
<p>Innovation diffusion theory emphasizes that the adoption of new technologies depends on effective information channels and social acceptance (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">Dearing and Cox, 2018</xref>). Digital rural development accelerates the dissemination of green and smart agricultural technologies by enhancing connectivity and service systems. Supported by public policies and socialized service platforms, technologies such as IoT-based monitoring, drone-assisted pesticide application, and precision irrigation have achieved wide adoption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">Fu and Zhang, 2022</xref>). These innovations raise farmers&#x2019; awareness of green production and foster precision, low-carbon, and intelligent farming practices, thereby improving both productivity and environmental performance (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">Cai and Han, 2024</xref>).</p>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H4</italic>: Digital rural development indirectly promotes AGTFP by accelerating the diffusion of green and smart agricultural technologies.</p>
</disp-quote>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec13">
<label>2.2.3</label>
<title>Threshold effects</title>
<p>Digital rural development encompasses multiple dimensions&#x2014;digital infrastructure, service capacity, and development environment&#x2014;and variations across these dimensions may generate nonlinear or stage-dependent effects. At early stages, weak infrastructure constrains information flow and factor mobility; once a threshold is reached, network externalities and scale effects amplify the benefits for AGTFP. By contrast, the effect of digital service capacity may display diminishing marginal returns&#x2014;strong at initial stages when information barriers are reduced but weaker once systems mature. Finally, the role of the digital development environment is conditional: under weak institutional or physical conditions, improvements yield substantial gains in green efficiency, but the marginal impact declines as supporting conditions strengthen.</p>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H5a</italic>: The positive effect of digital infrastructure on AGTFP strengthens once it surpasses the development threshold.</p>
</disp-quote>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H5b</italic>: The effect of digital service capacity is stronger at lower development levels but diminishes at higher levels.</p>
</disp-quote>
<disp-quote>
<p><italic>H5c</italic>: The effect of the digital development environment is more pronounced under weak conditions and stabilizes as the environment improves.</p>
</disp-quote>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec14">
<label>3</label>
<title>Research design</title>
<sec id="sec15">
<label>3.1</label>
<title>Data sources</title>
<p>Given the lack of consistent statistical data for Tibet, this study employs provincial panel data from 30 mainland Chinese provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) covering the period 2012&#x2013;2022. The selection of this sample period follows both a policy-evolution rationale and a data-consistency consideration. Although China&#x2019;s Digital Rural Construction strategy was formally proposed in the 2018 &#x201C;No.1 Central Document&#x201D;, rural internet development and digital infrastructure had already experienced rapid growth since around 2012. Starting the sample period in 2012 therefore allows us to capture the accumulation of digital foundations prior to the formal policy launch, as well as the subsequent implementation and expansion stages of digital rural development within a unified analytical framework. With respect to the end year, 2022 represents the latest year for which key indicators used in this study, particularly those related to agricultural inputs, environmental outputs, and rural digital services are officially and consistently reported at the provincial level. Extending the sample beyond 2022 would require the use of partially released or statistically adjusted data, which may compromise intertemporal comparability and measurement consistency.</p>
<p>The data were primarily drawn from the <italic>China Statistical Yearbook</italic>, <italic>China Agricultural Yearbook</italic>, <italic>China Agricultural Machinery Industry Yearbook</italic>, <italic>China Rural Statistical Yearbook</italic>, and <italic>China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook</italic>, as well as official reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. Missing observations were estimated through linear interpolation to maintain the continuity and integrity of the panel dataset.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec16">
<label>3.2</label>
<title>Model specification</title>
<p>To evaluate the overall impact of digital rural development on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP), the following fixed-effects panel model is specified:</p>
<disp-formula id="E1">
<mml:math id="M1">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mtext>AGTFP</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03BC;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B5;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
<label>(1)</label>
</disp-formula>
<p>Where <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M2">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mtext>AGTFP</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> represents agricultural green total factor productivity; <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M3">
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> denotes the level of digital rural development; <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M4">
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M5">
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> represent province and year, respectively; <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M6">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is a vector of control variables; <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M7">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">u</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M8">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are province-specific and time-fixed effects; and <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M9">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B5;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the random disturbance term.</p>
<p>To identify indirect effects, mediating variables representing factor allocation, organizational upgrading, and technology diffusion are introduced into the framework. As specified in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="E2">Equations 2</xref>, <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="E3">3</xref>, the mediation models are constructed to examine the indirect transmission mechanisms.</p>
<disp-formula id="E2">
<mml:math id="M10">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>RM</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03BC;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B5;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
<label>(2)</label>
</disp-formula>
<disp-formula id="E3">
<mml:math id="M11">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mtext>AGTFP</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>RM</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03BC;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">t</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B5;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
<label>(3)</label>
</disp-formula>
<p>Where <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M12">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>RM</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> denotes the mediating variables, including factor allocation efficiency, organizational development, and technology adoption. Other variables are defined as in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="E1">Equation 1</xref>. The coefficients of interest, <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M13">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula>
<mml:math id="M14">
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, capture the mediating (indirect) transmission pathways through which digital rural development influences AGTFP.</p>
<p>Following the causal inference literature, this study adopts a two-step mediation analysis framework rather than the traditional causal-steps (three-step) approach. As emphasized by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9002">Jiang (2022)</xref>, the conventional stepwise procedure may suffer from low statistical power and does not constitute a valid test of causal mechanisms. Accordingly, this study does not rely on mechanical step-by-step significance testing to determine mediation. Instead, the mechanism analysis focuses on examining whether digital rural development significantly affects the proposed mediating variables and whether the inclusion of these mediators attenuates the estimated total effect on AGTFP. The results are interpreted as mechanism-consistent evidence rather than a strict causal decomposition and therefore do not constitute identified direct or indirect causal effects.</p>
<p>To examine potential nonlinearities, a panel threshold model (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">Hansen, 1999</xref>) is further estimated. The specification is given in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="E4">Equation 4</xref>.</p>
<disp-formula id="E4">
<mml:math id="M15">
<mml:mtable columnalign="left" displaystyle="true">
<mml:mtr>
<mml:mtd>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mtext>AGTFP</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>=</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03BC;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">i</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">I</mml:mi>
<mml:mo stretchy="true">(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x2264;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo stretchy="true">)</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B2;</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Dig</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>_</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>vil</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">I</mml:mi>
<mml:mo stretchy="true">(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x003E;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>&#x03B3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo stretchy="true">)</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
</mml:mtd>
</mml:mtr>
<mml:mtr>
<mml:mtd>
<mml:mi>&#x03B4;</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">X</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>+</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x03B5;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>it</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mtd>
</mml:mtr>
</mml:mtable>
</mml:math>
<label>(4)</label>
</disp-formula>
<p>Where q<sub>it</sub> is the threshold variable, for which the three dimensions of digital rural development-digital infrastructure, digital service capacity, and the digital development environment-are selected in turn. &#x03B3; denotes the estimated threshold value, and I (&#x00B7;) is an indicator function that equals (1) if the condition holds and 0 otherwise.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec17">
<label>3.3</label>
<title>Variable selection and measurement</title>
<sec id="sec18">
<label>3.3.1</label>
<title>Dependent variable: agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP)</title>
<p>Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity (AGTFP) serves as the core indicator of green agricultural efficiency in this study. Following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref72">Zheng et al. (2023)</xref>, AGTFP is measured using the super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model, which accounts for both desirable outputs (agricultural output value) and undesirable outputs (agricultural carbon emissions). The corresponding indicator system is summarized in <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1">Table 1</xref>.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab1">
<label>Table 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Indicators for constructing agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP).</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top">Indicator type</th>
<th align="left" valign="top">Variable</th>
<th align="left" valign="top">Description</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="7">Input indicators</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Land</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Total sown area of crops</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Labor</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of employees in the primary industry</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Machinery</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Total agricultural machinery power</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Irrigation</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Effective irrigated area</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Fertilizer</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Amount of agricultural fertilizer used</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Pesticide</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Amount of pesticide used</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Plastic film</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Amount of agricultural plastic film used</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="2">Output indicators</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Desirable output</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Agricultural total output value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Undesirable output</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Agricultural carbon emissions</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>The AGTFP indicator system includes both desirable and undesirable outputs to capture green agricultural efficiency. Data are derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and related sources (2012&#x2013;2022).</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="sec19">
<label>3.3.2</label>
<title>Explanatory variable: digital rural development</title>
<p>Digital rural development is conceptualized as a multidimensional system integrating digital infrastructure, digital service capacity, and the digital development environment. Digital infrastructure provides the physical foundation for information transmission and factor mobility, encompassing broadband networks, mobile communication facilities, and related equipment. Digital service capacity reflects the degree to which digital tools, such as e-commerce, digital finance, and e-governance, translate infrastructure into productive capacity and enhance operational efficiency. In this study, digital rural governance is understood as an integral component of digital service capacity and the broader digital development environment, reflecting the application of digital technologies in public service delivery, information disclosure, and administrative coordination in rural areas. Due to data availability and the focus on development capacity rather than institutional performance, governance-related aspects are therefore not separately extracted as an independent dimension. The digital development environment captures the broader enabling conditions, including energy supply stability, logistics systems, data processing and collection capacity, and the regional digital industrial ecosystem, which together support technology diffusion and ensure the long-term sustainability of digital transformation. It should be noted that this dimension does not directly represent agricultural production activities; rather, it reflects the external infrastructural and industrial conditions under which digital technologies can effectively operate and be sustained in rural contexts. In this context, indicators reflecting logistics development and regional digital industry foundations are included to proxy the enabling environment, rather than to measure agricultural digitalization itself. Based on the above conceptual framework, the digital rural development index was constructed following a structured, three-step procedure. First, 13 indicators were selected to correspond to the three core dimensions (see <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab2">Table 2</xref>). Second, all indicators were standardized to ensure comparability across provinces and over time. Third, the entropy-weight method was employed to objectively determine indicator weights based on the degree of information dispersion, thereby reducing subjectivity and redundancy in index construction. In addition, variance inflation factor (VIF) tests indicate that multicollinearity is not a concern (mean VIF&#x202F;=&#x202F;1.63, all VIF values &#x003C; 3). Regarding indicator direction, all indicators are intentionally defined as positive to capture the enabling capacity and development potential of digital rural development, consistent with mainstream practice in the literature (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9001">Pan et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">Zhu and Zhou, 2025</xref>). Potential imbalances or inclusiveness issues were therefore examined through heterogeneity, mechanism, and threshold analyses, rather than embedded directly into the index construction. The weighted indicators were then aggregated to obtain a composite index of digital rural development. In particular, indicators such as the added value of transportation, storage, and postal services, as well as the added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services, are used to capture the maturity of logistics systems and digital industry support, which are essential for the effective functioning of rural digitalization.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab2">
<label>Table 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Indicator system for evaluating the level of digital rural development.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top">Target layer</th>
<th align="left" valign="top">Primary indicator</th>
<th align="left" valign="top">Secondary indicator</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Attribute</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="13">Digital Rural Development</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="4">Infrastructure</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of rural broadband users per household</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of computers per 100 rural households</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of mobile phones per million rural households</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Length of optical cable lines per square kilometer</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="4">Digital Service Capacity</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Proportion of Taobao Villages to administrative villages</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of rural digital industrial bases</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Ratio of national modern agricultural demonstration zones and industrial parks to county-level administrative units</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Index of digitalization degree in rural digital finance</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle" rowspan="5">Digital Development Environment</td>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Total power of agricultural machinery</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Rural electricity consumption</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Number of environmental and agro-meteorological observation stations</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Added value of transportation, storage, and postal services</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">+</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>&#x201C;+&#x201D; indicates a positive indicator, meaning that higher values correspond to higher levels of digital rural development.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>In this study, digital rural development is operationally defined as a composite, enabling-capacity index that captures the extent to which digital infrastructure, digital services, and supportive development environments jointly facilitate the application of digital technologies in rural areas. This operational definition is grounded in the theoretical perspective of digital empowerment and rural modernization, and is closely aligned with China&#x2019;s policy framework on digital village construction, which emphasizes infrastructure upgrading, service integration, and institutional support as core pillars of rural digital transformation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec20">
<label>3.3.3</label>
<title>Mediating variables</title>
<p>To identify the transmission mechanisms through which digital rural development influences agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP), this study draws on established theoretical frameworks on productivity and green development and identifies three primary transmission channels: factor reallocation, organizational upgrading, and technology diffusion.</p>
<p>Factor allocation efficiency is proxied by the land transfer rate and labor outflow. Existing studies indicate that land transfer plays a critical role in optimizing land factor allocation and promoting scale management, thereby improving agricultural productivity and efficiency (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">Deininger and Jin, 2005</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">Chen et al., 2011</xref>). Meanwhile, the reallocation of surplus rural labor has been shown to alleviate labor redundancy and enhance factor use efficiency through land-labor substitution and capital deepening (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">Benjamin, 1995</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref62">Yang and An, 2002</xref>). Accordingly, this study adopts these two indicators to capture the factor reallocation channel through which digitalization reduces transaction costs and information asymmetry, thereby facilitating large-scale and more efficient agricultural production.</p>
<p>Organizational structure is proxied by the level of large-scale operation and the number of agricultural cooperatives. Existing studies indicate that large-scale operation contributes to agricultural productivity and efficiency improvements by enhancing resource integration, reducing coordination and agency costs, and facilitating the adoption of modern production technologies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">Foster and Rosenzweig, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref58">Wang et al., 2020</xref>). Meanwhile, agricultural cooperatives play an important role in organizational upgrading and collaborative production by improving farmers&#x2019; access to information, markets, and shared services, thereby strengthening collective action and economies of scale (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">Ito et al., 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref44">Ma and Abdulai, 2016</xref>). Accordingly, this study adopts these two indicators to capture the organizational upgrading channel through which digitalization reduces coordination costs and improves organizational efficiency, thereby promoting more efficient and coordinated agricultural production.</p>
<p>Technology diffusion is proxied by the comprehensive mechanization rate of grain cultivation and the intensity of agricultural R&#x0026;D investment. Existing studies indicate that agricultural mechanization plays a critical role in facilitating the adoption of modern and resource-saving production technologies, thereby improving production efficiency and promoting green agricultural development in China (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref47">Peng et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref41">Lu F. et al., 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref42">Lu S. et al., 2024</xref>). Meanwhile, agricultural R&#x0026;D investment has been shown to be a key driver of technological progress and technology diffusion in agriculture, enhancing productivity and sustainability through continuous innovation and knowledge spillovers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">Jin et al., 2002</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27">Lee et al., 2017</xref>). Accordingly, this study adopts these two indicators to capture the technology diffusion channel through which digital rural development accelerates the dissemination of advanced agricultural technologies and the adoption of green innovations, ultimately contributing to agricultural green total factor productivity.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec21">
<label>3.3.4</label>
<title>Control variables</title>
<p>To control for potential confounding influences of macroeconomic, social, and industrial factors, this study follows established empirical literature and incorporates a set of control variables (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref56">Wang L. et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref60">Wang Z. et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<p>Openness to the outside world is measured by the ratio of foreign direct investment (FDI) to gross domestic product (GDP). Foreign direct investment can improve resource allocation efficiency by alleviating capital constraints, introducing advanced technologies, and generating technology spillover effects, thereby influencing agricultural productivity and green development (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref54">Wang J. et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref57">Wang X. et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>Level of economic development is represented by GDP per capita, which reflects regional income levels and production capacity. Higher economic development provides better resource endowments and infrastructure conditions, forming an important foundation for productivity improvement and green transformation in agriculture (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref67">Zhang Q. et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref68">Zhang Z. et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<p>Rural education level is calculated using a weighted education index of the rural population aged six and above, which serves as a common proxy for human capital accumulation. Improvements in rural education enhance farmers&#x2019; ability to adopt advanced technologies and environmentally friendly practices, contributing to higher agricultural efficiency and sustainability (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">Bai and Lei, 2020</xref>).</p>
<p>Agricultural planting structure is expressed as the ratio of grain-sown area to total crop-sown area, indicating the orientation of agricultural production structure. Planting structure affects factor allocation and resource use efficiency in agriculture and has important implications for green total factor productivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Li et al., 2025</xref>).</p>
<p>Industrial structure is measured by the ratio of the value added of the secondary industry to that of the tertiary industry. Changes in industrial structure may indirectly influence agricultural green development by reshaping factor allocation and generating structural spillover effects across sectors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref70">Zhao et al., 2025</xref>).</p>
<p>Incorporating these control variables helps isolate the net effect of digital rural development on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) by minimizing the influence of external economic, social, and structural heterogeneity.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="results" id="sec22">
<label>4</label>
<title>Results and discussion</title>
<sec id="sec23">
<label>4.1</label>
<title>Baseline regression results</title>
<p><xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">Table 3</xref> reports the baseline regression results examining the impact of digital rural development on AGTFP. Columns (1) and (2) present the fixed-effects (FE) and random-effects (RE) estimates without control variables, respectively. In both specifications, the coefficient of digital rural development is positive and statistically significant, indicating a robust positive association with AGTFP. After incorporating control variables, columns (3)&#x2013;(5) report the FE, RE, and pooled OLS results, respectively. The Breusch&#x2013;Pagan LM test rejects the null hypothesis of no individual effects, while the Hausman test favors the FE specification over the RE model. Accordingly, column (3) is adopted as the preferred specification. As shown in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">Table 3</xref>, digital rural development exerts a significantly positive effect on AGTFP at the 1% level, providing strong support for Hypothesis 1. This result suggests that improvements in rural digitalization contribute to green agricultural productivity by enhancing factor allocation efficiency, facilitating technological diffusion, and supporting environmentally sustainable production.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab3">
<label>Table 3</label>
<caption>
<p>Baseline regression results.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top">AGTFP</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(5)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.160&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.061)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.116&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.060)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.967&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.147)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.904&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.112)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.635&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.080)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Degree of openness</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.005&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.001)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.005&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.001)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.007&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.002)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Economic development level</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.000&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.000)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.000&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.000)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.000&#x002A;<break/>(0.000)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Rural education</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.043<break/>(0.028)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.021<break/>(0.023)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.001<break/>(0.014)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Agricultural planting structure</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.234<break/>(0.172)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.272&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.100)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.237&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.051)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Industrial structure</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.136&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.049)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.085&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.039)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.020<break/>(0.030)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Constant term</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.001<break/>(0.018)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.012<break/>(0.025)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.344<break/>(0.267)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.078<break/>(0.183)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.283&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.106)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Region control</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Year control</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top"><italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.548</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.548</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.623</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.620</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.419</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="sec24">
<label>4.2</label>
<title>Robustness and endogeneity tests</title>
<p><xref ref-type="table" rid="tab4">Table 4</xref> reports the results of robustness and endogeneity checks. Columns (1)&#x2013;(3) present robustness tests using an alternative AGTFP measure, excluding municipalities, and winsorizing variables at the 5% level, respectively. In all three specifications, the coefficient of digital rural development remains positive and statistically significant, confirming the robustness of the baseline findings.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab4">
<label>Table 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Robustness checks and 2SLS results.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top" rowspan="2">AGTFP</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(5)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">Alt. AGTFP (DEA&#x2013;M)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Drop municipalities</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Winsorization (5%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">First-stage (IV)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Second-stage (2SLS)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.368&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.186)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.331&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.166)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.468&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.124)</td>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.688&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.094)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Lagged digital rural development</td>
<td/>
<td/>
<td/>
<td align="left" valign="top">0.963&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.0145)</td>
<td/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Controls</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="left" valign="top">Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Region FE/Year FE</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="left" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">286</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="left" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.088</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.697</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.715</td>
<td/>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.382</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>To address potential reverse causality and omitted variable bias, this study employs a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach using the one-period lag of digital rural development as an instrumental variable, following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9004">Liu et al. (2025)</xref>. Columns (4) and (5) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab4">Table 4</xref> report the first-stage and second-stage estimation results, respectively. As shown in column (4), the lagged digital rural development variable is strongly correlated with the endogenous regressor, indicating satisfactory instrument relevance. Identification tests reject underidentification and confirm a strong instrument (Cragg&#x2013;Donald Wald <italic>F</italic>&#x202F;=&#x202F;4426.28; LM&#x202F;=&#x202F;281.37). Column (5) shows that digital rural development remains positive and statistically significant at the 1% level after addressing endogeneity concerns, reinforcing the baseline conclusion that higher levels of rural digitalization are associated with greater AGTFP. Overall, these results confirm the robustness and validity of the empirical findings.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec25">
<label>4.3</label>
<title>Mechanism analysis</title>
<sec id="sec26">
<label>4.3.1</label>
<title>Factor allocation</title>
<p>To examine the mediating mechanism through factor allocation, <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab5">Table 5</xref> reports the estimated effects of digital rural development on land transfer and labor mobility, as well as their relationships with AGTFP. As shown in column (1) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab5">Table 5</xref>, digital rural development significantly increases land transfer. Column (2) further shows that land transfer is negatively associated with AGTFP. Complementary evidence based on a land misallocation index (following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9003">Lei et al., 2022</xref>) indicates that rising land transfers have not yet alleviated land misallocation, which is consistent with institutional frictions that may generate excessive or inefficient transfers. As shown in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab5">Table 5</xref>, digital rural development significantly promotes labor outflow, while column (4) indicates that labor outflow is positively associated with AGTFP, suggesting that digitalization facilitates more efficient labor reallocation and reduces redundant on-farm labor. Taken together, the inclusion of land transfer and labor outflow leads to a partial attenuation of the estimated effect of digital rural development on AGTFP relative to the baseline result reported in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">Table 3</xref>. Consistent with the two-step mediation framework (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9002">Jiang, 2022</xref>), these results provide mechanism-consistent evidence that factor reallocation may serve as an important transmission channel, although institutional frictions in land markets may weaken its green efficiency effects.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab5">
<label>Table 5</label>
<caption>
<p>Mediation effect of factor allocation.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2">Variables</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Land transfer rate</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Labor outflow</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.174&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.342)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.027&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.149)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.127&#x002A;<break/>(0.069)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.896&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.143)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Controls/FE</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top"><italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.388</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.629</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.392</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.649</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="sec27">
<label>4.3.2</label>
<title>Organizational structure</title>
<p>To examine the mediating mechanism through organizational upgrading, <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab6">Table 6</xref> reports the estimated effects of digital rural development on the scale of agricultural operations and the number of rural cooperatives. As shown in column (1) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab6">Table 6</xref>, digital rural development significantly increases the scale of agricultural operations, while Column (2) shows that the expansion of operational scale is positively associated with AGTFP. As shown in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab6">Table 6</xref>, digital rural development significantly promotes the formation of rural cooperatives, whereas column (4) indicates that cooperative development is positively associated with AGTFP. Taken together, the inclusion of organizational variables leads to a partial attenuation of the estimated effect of digital rural development on AGTFP relative to the baseline result reported in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">Table 3</xref>. Following <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9002">Jiang (2022)</xref>, this attenuation is interpreted as mechanism-consistent evidence rather than formal mediation identification. These findings support the view that digitalization facilitates organizational upgrading, resource pooling, and coordinated production, thereby enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of agricultural systems.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab6">
<label>Table 6</label>
<caption>
<p>Mediation effect of organizational structure.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2">Variables</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Scale of agricultural operations</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Number of rural cooperatives</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.607&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.139)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.776&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.145)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">79.301&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(14.293)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.831&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.152)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Controls/FE</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top"><italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.388</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.657</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.666</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.634</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="sec28">
<label>4.3.3</label>
<title>Technology diffusion</title>
<p>To examine the mediating mechanism through technology diffusion, <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab7">Table 7</xref> reports the estimated effects of digital rural development on the comprehensive mechanization rate and agricultural R&#x0026;D intensity. As shown in column (1) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab7">Table 7</xref>, digital rural development significantly increases the comprehensive mechanization rate, while column (2) indicates that mechanization is positively and statistically associated with AGTFP. As shown in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab7">Table 7</xref>, digital rural development significantly promotes agricultural R&#x0026;D intensity, whereas column (4) shows that agricultural R&#x0026;D investment is positively associated with AGTFP. Taken together, the inclusion of mechanization and agricultural R&#x0026;D variables leads to a partial attenuation of the estimated effect of digital rural development on AGTFP relative to the baseline result reported in column (3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab3">Table 3</xref>. Consistent with the two-step mediation framework, these results are interpreted as mechanism-consistent evidence of an indirect technology diffusion channel rather than a definitive causal decomposition. These findings highlight that digitalization enhances green agricultural productivity by promoting technological progress, innovation diffusion, and the adoption of modern agricultural practices.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab7">
<label>Table 7</label>
<caption>
<p>Mediation effect of technological innovation.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2">Variables</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Comprehensive mechanization rate</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" colspan="2">Intensity of agricultural R&#x0026;D investment</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.459&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.235)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.855&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.155)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">496.013&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(133.254)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.843&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.146)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Controls/FE</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.144</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.629</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.337</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.643</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec29">
<label>4.4</label>
<title>Heterogeneity analysis</title>
<p>To examine potential heterogeneity in the estimated effects, we explore variations by region (eastern, central, and western) and by production structure (major grain-producing vs. non-grain-producing provinces). Columns (1)&#x2013;(3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab8">Table 8</xref> report the regional heterogeneity results. As shown in column (1), the effect of digital rural development on AGTFP is strongest in the eastern region (1.366, <italic>p</italic>&#x202F;&#x003C;&#x202F;0.01). Column (2) shows that the effect remains positive but smaller in the central region (0.306, <italic>p</italic>&#x202F;&#x003C;&#x202F;0.05), while column (3) indicates a positive yet more modest effect in the western region (0.570, <italic>p</italic>&#x202F;&#x003C;&#x202F;0.10). These gradients are consistent with regional differences in digital infrastructure coverage, market openness, and absorptive capacity.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab8">
<label>Table 8</label>
<caption>
<p>Heterogeneity test results.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top" rowspan="2">AGTFP</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(4)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(5)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">Eastern</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Central</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Western</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Grain-producing</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Non-grain-producing</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Digital rural development</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.366&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.262)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.306&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.138)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.570&#x002A;<break/>(0.316)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">&#x2212;0.066<break/>(0.187)</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">1.763&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.194)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Controls/FE</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">Yes/Yes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">110</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">66</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">121</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">143</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">187</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="top"><italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.724</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.868</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.748</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.660</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">0.711</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>For production structure heterogeneity, provinces are categorized into major grain-producing and non-grain-producing regions according to the <italic>Guiding Opinions of the State Council on the Establishment of Functional Zones for Grain Production and Protected Areas for Major Agricultural Products (2017)</italic>. Columns (4) and (5) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab8">Table 8</xref> report the corresponding results. As shown in column (4), the effect of digital rural development on AGTFP is statistically insignificant in major grain-producing regions, whereas column (5) shows a strong and positive effect in non-grain-producing regions (1.763, <italic>p</italic>&#x202F;&#x003C;&#x202F;0.01). This pattern is consistent with evidence that grain-oriented production systems prioritize output stabilization&#x2014;often accompanied by intensive input use&#x2014;while more diversified production structures are better positioned to leverage digitalization for resource reallocation and organizational upgrading (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref59">Wang and Zhu, 2024</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref44">Ma et al., 2016</xref>). Taken together, these findings highlight that the benefits of digital rural development are uneven across regions and production systems, underscoring the need for differentiated policies to ensure balanced and sustainable agricultural transformation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec30">
<label>4.5</label>
<title>Threshold effects</title>
<p>To further examine potential nonlinearities in the impact of digital rural development on AGTFP, this study estimates a panel threshold model using digital infrastructure, digital service capacity, and the digital development environment as threshold variables. Columns (1)&#x2013;(3) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab9">Table 9</xref> report the corresponding threshold estimation results. As shown in column (1) of <xref ref-type="table" rid="tab9">Table 9</xref>, a statistically significant threshold is identified for digital infrastructure at 0.324. When digital infrastructure is below the threshold, the effect of digital rural development on AGTFP is positive and significant (coefficient&#x202F;=&#x202F;0.727), and this effect further strengthens once the threshold is crossed (coefficient&#x202F;=&#x202F;0.868), indicating that improved physical infrastructure amplifies the productivity gains from digitalization through network externalities. Column (2) reports the threshold results for digital service capacity, with a threshold value of 0.221. The estimated coefficient below the threshold (1.370) is larger than that above the threshold (1.111), suggesting diminishing marginal returns as digital service systems become more mature. By contrast, column (3) shows that the digital development environment exhibits the lowest threshold (0.132). The effect of digital rural development on AGTFP is stronger below the threshold (1.184) and declines after surpassing the threshold (0.955), implying that improvements in institutional and environmental foundations yield greater marginal benefits in relatively underdeveloped settings. Taken together, these results confirm the existence of stage-dependent and nonlinear relationships between digital rural development and green agricultural productivity, providing empirical support for H5a&#x2013;H5c.</p>
<table-wrap position="float" id="tab9">
<label>Table 9</label>
<caption>
<p>Threshold effect results.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="left" valign="top" rowspan="2">Threshold variable</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(1)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(2)</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">(3)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top">Digital infrastructure</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Digital service capacity</th>
<th align="center" valign="top">Digital development environment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Threshold value</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.324</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.221</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.132</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Coefficient (&#x2264;threshold)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.727&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.121)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">1.370&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.188)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">1.184&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.156)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Coefficient (&#x003E;threshold)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.868&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.109)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">1.111&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.172)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">0.955&#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;<break/>(0.144)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" valign="middle">Obs.</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">330</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle">330</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<p>Robust standard errors clustered at the provincial level are reported in parentheses. &#x002A;&#x002A;&#x002A;, &#x002A;&#x002A;, and &#x002A; denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.</p>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
<sec id="sec31">
<label>4.6</label>
<title>Discussion: mechanism-related boundary conditions</title>
<p>Beyond establishing that digital rural development significantly enhances agricultural green total factor productivity, the above results further clarify the conditions under which the digital empowerment effect becomes more effective. The combined evidence from the mechanism, heterogeneity, and threshold analyses suggests that the green productivity effects of digitalization are not automatic, but depend critically on complementary structural and institutional conditions.</p>
<p>First, from the perspective of factor allocation, digital rural development generates stronger green efficiency gains when labor mobility operates smoothly and surplus labor can be reallocated out of agriculture. By contrast, the land transfer channel remains constrained by institutional frictions, implying that the effectiveness of digital empowerment is conditional on the quality of land institutions and factor market arrangements.</p>
<p>Second, organizational upgrading emerges as an important boundary condition. Regions characterized by larger-scale agricultural operations and more developed cooperative systems are better positioned to translate digital inputs into coordinated production, resource pooling, and standardized green practices, thereby amplifying the productivity and environmental benefits of digitalization.</p>
<p>Third, the threshold analysis reveals clear stage-dependent effects across digital infrastructure, service capacity, and the development environment. Digital rural development exerts stronger green productivity effects once digital infrastructure surpasses a critical level, while diminishing marginal returns arise as digital services mature. Moreover, improvements in the digital development environment yield greater marginal benefits in relatively underdeveloped settings, highlighting the role of institutional and environmental foundations in shaping digital empowerment outcomes.</p>
<p>Taken together, these findings indicate that digital rural development is most effective in promoting green agricultural transformation when efficient factor allocation, organizational upgrading, and adequate digital foundations are jointly in place, thereby explicitly identifying the mechanism-related boundary conditions of the digital empowerment effect.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec32">
<label>5</label>
<title>Conclusion and policy implications</title>
<sec id="sec33">
<label>5.1</label>
<title>Research conclusion</title>
<p>Drawing on panel data for 30 Chinese provinces during 2012&#x2013;2022, this study constructs a multidimensional index of digital rural development, covering digital infrastructure, digital service capacity, and the digital development environment, and measures agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). Using fixed-effects, mediation, panel threshold, and heterogeneity analyses, five key conclusions emerge:</p>
<p>1. Overall association. Digital rural development is positively associated with AGTFP across specifications. The result is robust to multiple checks and an instrumental-variable approach, supporting H1 and confirming that rural digitalization is an important driver of green agricultural transformation.</p>
<p>2. Multiple mechanisms.</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item>
<p>Factor allocation: Digital rural development significantly promotes farmland transfer and labor outflow. While labor reallocation contributes positively to AGTFP by improving factor use efficiency, land transfer does not always alleviate misallocation and may even hinder green efficiency under imperfect institutional conditions. Overall, the results provide mechanism-consistent evidence that factor reallocation may operate as an indirect transmission channel, although the analysis does not identify causal mediation effects.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Organizational upgrading: Digital rural development is associated with larger-scale agricultural operations and a higher prevalence of cooperatives, both of which are positively related to AGTFP. The inclusion of organizational variables leads to a noticeable attenuation of the estimated effect of digital rural development, suggesting the presence of an indirect organizational upgrading channel that supports green productivity improvements.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Technology diffusion: Digital rural development enhances agricultural mechanization and R&#x0026;D intensity, both of which contribute positively to AGTFP. The attenuation of the digital rural development coefficient after accounting for these variables indicates an indirect technology diffusion pathway, providing further mechanism-consistent evidence for the role of digitalization in promoting green agricultural productivity.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
<p>3. Regional heterogeneity. Effects are strongest in the eastern region, weaker in the central, and modest in the western, reflecting differences in infrastructure, absorptive capacity, and development stages.</p>
<p>4. Production-structure heterogeneity. In major grain-producing regions, the direct effect on AGTFP is insignificant&#x2014;consistent with food-security priorities and intensive input use&#x2014;whereas non-grain regions show a strong positive association alongside structural upgrading.</p>
<p>5. Threshold characteristics. The impact exhibits stage dependence: the marginal effect of infrastructure strengthens once a critical level is reached, whereas service capacity and the development environment show larger effects below their thresholds with diminishing marginal returns thereafter.</p>
<p>Overall, digital rural development is associated with higher AGTFP both directly and through factor allocation, organizational, and technology channels, while its effectiveness varies by region, production structure, and development stage.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec34">
<label>5.2</label>
<title>Policy implications</title>
<p>1. Align digital and green objectives through top-level design. The empirical findings further indicate that digital rural development policies should be designed with explicit attention to mechanism-related conditions. Digital empowerment is more likely to generate substantial green productivity gains in regions where factor markets function efficiently, organizational carriers are relatively mature, and basic digital infrastructure has reached critical levels. In contrast, in regions where these conditions remain weak, digital investments should be complemented by institutional reforms, organizational support, and capacity-building measures to avoid limited or delayed green transformation effects. Accordingly, measurable green targets (e.g., input reduction, emissions intensity) should be embedded into digital rural strategies and evaluation systems to jointly advance digital empowerment and environmental sustainability.</p>
<p>2. Improve factor-market institutions and organizational capacity. Standardize farmland transfer rules (registries, disclosure, dispute resolution) to reduce misallocation; promote labor mobility and rural entrepreneurship through digital job-matching and training; support cooperatives and family farms in digital transformation (data platforms, traceability) to scale up standardized green practices.</p>
<p>3. Invest in technology diffusion and complementary inputs. Expand subsidies and public&#x2013;private partnerships for smart machinery, precision irrigation, and green pest management; increase R&#x0026;D funding and extension services to accelerate adoption, especially among smallholders.</p>
<p>4. Adopt regionally differentiated strategies.</p>
<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item>
<p>Eastern region: Deepen integration of digital and green production, and pilot market and governance innovations (e.g., data trading, carbon labeling).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Central region: Strengthen the application environment (open data, digital finance access, platform interoperability) to translate infrastructure into productivity gains.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Western region: Prioritize infrastructure catch-up (connectivity, logistics, energy reliability) alongside soil and water conservation to increase the marginal returns to digitalization.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
<p>5. Tailor policies to production structures. For grain-oriented regions, focus on efficiency improvements and ecological balance, while in diversified regions, prioritize digital innovation and resource reallocation to foster sustainable upgrading.</p>
<p>These findings provide empirical evidence and actionable insights for promoting sustainable agricultural transformation through digital rural development.</p>
<p>With the continued acceleration of digital village construction and agricultural green transformation in recent years, extending the sample period to include more recent data, such as 2023, may allow a more precise identification of threshold effects and regional heterogeneity patterns without altering the core conclusions regarding the positive role of digital rural development. Future research may incorporate post-2022 data as they become fully available to provide a more precise evaluation of recent policy impacts.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<sec sec-type="data-availability" id="sec35">
<title>Data availability statement</title>
<p>The datasets analyzed in this study are publicly available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China at <ext-link xlink:href="http://www.stats.gov.cn" ext-link-type="uri">http://www.stats.gov.cn</ext-link>. Data were compiled from the China Statistical Yearbook and China Rural Statistical Yearbook (2012&#x2013;2022). These data are part of official statistical publications and therefore do not have repository accession numbers.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="author-contributions" id="sec36">
<title>Author contributions</title>
<p>ZZ: Conceptualization, Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing, Writing &#x2013; original draft. QD: Writing &#x2013; original draft, Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing. HD: Data curation, Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing. WY: Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing, Formal analysis. WL: Writing &#x2013; review &#x0026; editing, Formal analysis.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="sec37">
<title>Conflict of interest</title>
<p>The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="ai-statement" id="sec38">
<title>Generative AI statement</title>
<p>The author(s) declared that Generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.</p>
<p>Any alternative text (alt text) provided alongside figures in this article has been generated by Frontiers with the support of artificial intelligence and reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, including review by the authors wherever possible. If you identify any issues, please contact us.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="sec39">
<title>Publisher&#x2019;s note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
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<fn fn-type="custom" custom-type="edited-by" id="fn0001">
<p>Edited by: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1623376/overview">Qihua Cai</ext-link>, Zhengzhou University, China</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="custom" custom-type="reviewed-by" id="fn0002">
<p>Reviewed by: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/3247474/overview">Bin Liu</ext-link>, Guangxi University, China</p>
<p><ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/3261089/overview">Nannan Cao</ext-link>, Jilin Agriculture University, China</p>
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