Environmental factors such as droughts, heatwaves, and floods significantly affect agricultural productivity and the agricultural food supply chain (AFSC) (Malik et al., 2022; Ali et al., 2023). Droughts reduce soil moisture, leading to crop failures, higher market prices, and lower farm incomes. These economic challenges are further exacerbated by intermediaries capturing a substantial share of value and farmers’ dependence on costly agricultural inputs. Although drought-resistant crop varieties can mitigate some adverse effects, their performance still depends on maintaining healthy soils. Extreme weather events and soil degradation further undermine resilience, underscoring the importance of sustainable soil management (Kundzewicz et al., 2002; Renard et al., 2023). According to Khan et al. (2020), rice and wheat production in Pakistan are particularly vulnerable to climate-related risks, which could result in a projected GDP loss of USD 19.5 billion by 2050. Extreme weather events also damage transportation infrastructure, causing logistical delays and supply disruptions. Climate-induced changes are expected to reduce crop yields by approximately 23% by 2050 and increase price volatility (Haile et al., 2017). This decline in production could affect global GDP by up to 4.6% by 2060 (Tan et al., 2024). Rising agricultural commodity prices can also reduce domestic consumption, particularly in urban areas (Khan et al., 2020). This not only strains household budgets but also disrupts key dimensions of food security, particularly availability and access. When prices surge, food accessibility becomes limited for many households, and production slowdowns further constrain overall food availability. Consequently, the efficiency of supply chains deteriorates, intensifying food insecurity in regions already facing limited access to essential resources (Malik et al., 2022).

Price volatility of the agri-food products negatively affects their supply, particularly from developing countries. In countries with poor infrastructure and high inflation, price instability leads to reduced production (Subervie, 2008). Price volatility increases production costs, especially for fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds, making it harder for farmers to sustain production. These rising input costs limits their ability to invest in essential resources, leading to reduced productivity and inefficiencies through AFSCs. In order to mitigate price volatility risk, firms can employ scientific approaches such as real options valuation and total cost of ownership (Gaudenzi et al., 2020). Disruptions like COVID-19 can cause input shortages, affecting production and making agricultural products more costly (Hobbs, 2021). Systematic issues in agri-food logistics, coupled with poor resource management, have resulted in over 33% of food losses, exacerbating global food insecurity (Joshi et al., 2023). Food waste reduces food availability, drives up prices, and limits access to nutrients for vulnerable groups. Moreover, complex supply chains complicate food traceability and management, further exacerbating these challenges (Chen et al., 2021). This absence of transparency can result in food safety problems, fraudulent behavior as well as loss of consumer trust (Menon and Jain, 2024). The loss of consumer confidence in food supply can disrupt market demand and market access, while the imbalance and vertical integration of market forces may lead to unfair conditions for suppliers and limit the participation of smallholders within the distribution network (Young and Hobbs, 2002). The COVID-19 crisis and additional disruptions revealed weaknesses in the agricultural food supply chains, reduced productivity and diversity, and worsened access problems in poorly integrated and less developed areas (Swinnen and Vos, 2021). Solutions for this include the use of circular economy principles (Borrello et al., 2016) and blockchain technologies aimed at improving traceability (Chen et al., 2021; Menon and Jain, 2024).

Dependence on logistics and infrastructure can put companies at risk in terms of storage issues, transportation problems, and port troubles. Such problems can severely disrupt the food distribution network along with the performance of the company and its processes from supplier to customer (Ali and Govindan, 2021; Abu Nahleh et al., 2023). The outbreak of COVID-19 led to issues with transportation, inadequate storage facilities, food loss, and a shortage of labor, all of which impacted the availability, access, utilization, and stability of food. These disturbances not only disrupted food production and supply but also compromised food quality, freshness, hygiene, and cost-efficiency, exacerbating food insecurity in both the Global North as well as Global South (Abu Nahleh et al., 2023). Incorporating Industry 4.0 technology (I4T) can offset the negative impacts of operational risks affecting the performance of agricultural food distribution networks (Ali and Govindan, 2021). Digital transformation minimizes operational risk such as in COVID-19. In South Asia, the research conducted on logistics operation, more especially in transportation and warehousing functions, can enhance supply chain resilience (Umar and Wilson, 2023).

Seasonal and migrant worker shortages coupled with strikes have heavily affected all links of AFSC (Kuizinaitė et al., 2023). Human workforce is very important for smooth functioning of supply chain. During periods of labor shortages, Canada’s peak agricultural season and its reliance on temporary immigrant worker programs may result in disruptions, food losses, and reduced competitiveness (Preibisch, 2010). Alterations in immigration labor policies have afforded employers more sway in terms of staffing rights. This serves to underscore the value of immigrant labor in tackling shortages and sustaining productivity and stability in the labor market. As per Abu Nahleh et al. (2023), food losses and logistics disruptions occurred along the food value chain due to labor shortages, increased transportation costs, and limited storage capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic. The deficiencies in AFSC have unmasked their vulnerabilities and their dependence on a flexible labor strategy like digitization and automation (Ali and Govindan, 2021; Dadi et al., 2021).

An export ban or regulatory changes are the main risks that can disrupt AFSC. It can disrupt the global supply chain of food and agriculture. Most importantly, it can impact countries that lack self-sufficiency in agri-food (Kuizinaitė et al., 2023). According to Koppenberg et al. (2020), more than 20 countries have AFSC disruptions. Unanticipated governmental rules and regulatory changes could threaten the agri-food distribution. Because of coronavirus disrupting the border and food trade, better policy measures could limit the number of interruptions. The measures may relate to border delays, certification and food trade rules (Deconinck et al., 2020). The agri-food distribution faces major risk standards due to government policy reforms and compliance measures (Kuizinaitė et al., 2023). Excessive and inadequate regulation can harm the agricultural food sector, as excessive regulation may limit innovation and competitiveness, while insufficient regulation can lead to instability, including food safety issues, fraud, and unethical behavior (Zhao et al., 2017; Kuizinaitė et al., 2023). Changes in regulations can disrupt the flow of goods within the supply chain, leading to delays and inefficiencies. During the COVID-19 pandemic, sudden border and certification rule changes led to shipment delays and spoilage of perishable agri-food products. Adjusting a company’s production, package, or even the bus one of those cargo ships or trucks is likely to be costly. As per the study by Srivastava and Dashora (2021) and Menon and Jain (2024), to alleviate those risks, the policymakers and the stakeholders within the industry should look for innovative ways to achieve a balance between effectiveness and security. This can be achieved with the help of electronic traceability technology and blockchain, through which transparency and compliance can be enhanced.

Researchers have proposed adopting digital monitoring tools and innovations (such as AI, IoT and blockchain) to improve the traceability, openness, and efficiency of agricultural food distribution networks, which cyber-attacks could significantly compromise (Dadi et al., 2021; Ali and Govindan, 2021). According to Dadi et al. (2021), automation and digital platforms may help in handling issues concerning food safety and traceability but might also cause new risks. Tech platforms such as IoT, blockchain, and AI can help simplify processes and combat vulnerabilities and setbacks within the agricultural food distribution network (Ali and Govindan, 2021). For example, digital traceability systems can boost efficiency, support food protection, and increase openness throughout the distribution network (Charlebois et al., 2024). Digital twins can help create more transparency, reduce lead time, respond to unforeseen events, and make better use of current practices and resources. However, these technologies also bring new risks. Adoption of Industry 4.0 requires skilled workers, funding and economic benefits. Agricultural food supply chain can also face data privacy and cybersecurity threats from digital platforms (Saha et al., 2024). Technological solutions in agriculture rely heavily on global supply chains, which can create new vulnerabilities. Many of the components for technologies like IoT, blockchain, and AI come from far-off, expensive suppliers in the Global North. This dependence makes these systems prone to disruptions, which, honestly, raises questions about their long-term reliability and security. Moroever, sustainability could also be a big issue.

The agricultural food supply chain is significantly affected by changes in consumer demands—for example, the growing preference for organic, plant-based, and sustainable foods. These changes require adjustments in production, processing, and distribution systems, supported by technologies such as blockchain to improve tracking and transparency (Bhat et al., 2021; Toader et al., 2024). Shifting consumer demands are driving changes in the AFSC. To remain competitive and respond to evolving market needs, organizations must adopt digital technologies and sustainable practices (Ali and Govindan, 2021; Krstic et al., 2023). Food recalls caused by contamination or labeling errors negatively affect consumer trust and brand reputation. Surveys show that consumers are particularly concerned about recalls involving gluten-free products (Liu S. et al., 2023). However, when companies manage recalls in a transparent and efficient way, they can maintain consumer confidence. Corporate social media can help reduce the impact on stock prices, which tend to fall more sharply after a first recall than after multiple recalls (Wang et al., 2002; Lee et al., 2015).

Small farmers are economically vulnerable due to constraints on financing, insurance, and technology, as presented in Table 1. In addition, dependence on imported agricultural inputs such as mineral fertilizers, agrochemicals, and machinery exposes both Global South and Global North countries to international price and supply fluctuations. These dependencies increase production costs and food insecurity risks during global crises (Hatab, 2022; Liu L. et al., 2023; Hussein and Knol, 2023). Stringent collateral demands, high interest rates, and limited access to affordable credit imposed by financial institutions severely hinder their ability to invest in new production methods, risk management strategies, and modern technologies (Teye and Quarshie, 2021; Amarnath et al., 2023). This lack of credit channels restricts farmers from investing in modern technologies needed to boost productivity and reduce food insecurity (Teye and Quarshie, 2021). The majority of small-scale farmers do not have access to low-cost crop loss insurance, leaving them heavily impacted by extreme weather events. Gumbi et al. (2023) stated that small farmers could benefit from digital agriculture to solve their problems. However, it is not widely adopted because digital systems are weak, digital skills are low, costs are high, and infrastructure is poor. Using image-based insurance (PBI) can improve coverage for small farmers. Policies, improved rural infrastructure, and combined solutions like weather insurance, agricultural advice, and climate-resistant seeds should be implemented to enhance smallholder farmers’ capacity to cope (Ceballos et al., 2019; Teye and Quarshie, 2021; Amarnath et al., 2023). Smallholder farmers face rising costs due to dependence on imported inputs and soil degradation. This economic fragility are compounded by price volatility, unsustainable practices, and lack of financial support, highlighting the need for systemic policy changes.

Small farmers are very vulnerable in the agricultural food system due to their low resource base, high transaction costs, and operational compliance problems, as presented in Figure 2. This figure presents an overview of AFS, showing sequential stages, input, production, processing, distribution, retail/trade, and consumption, along with their interconnected vulnerabilities. The middle section highlights cross-cutting risks, while the lower part classifies them into five dimensions, viz., economic, technological, institutional, environmental, and social. Economic and technological issues arise from limited finance and weak digital adoption, whereas environmental and social challenges like climate change, resource degradation, poverty, and gender disparities intensify vulnerabilities across stages. The coronavirus outbreak revealed this problem, especially in Sri Lanka, as a result of transportation and demand disruptions, which worsened economic conditions (Ortmann and King, 2010). Small farmers without financial buffers were hard hit by external shocks. Farmers help build overall resilience capacity of AFSC, but they tend to be viewed as the least resilient ones in AFSC (Zhao et al., 2022). We need to tackle the susceptibility of small farmers in order to ensure their resilience and the sustainability of AFS. Strategies like developing alternative food networks, promoting collective action, and using digital technology can help reduce these vulnerabilities (Ortmann and King, 2010; Belhadi et al., 2024). As per Karunarathna et al. (2023), supply of agricultural inputs, loans, and subsidies by the government may lead to stabilization and sustaining of small farmer operations.

AFSC depends on global markets for its inputs and outputs, which makes domestic economies more vulnerable. This can be seen in Ghana’s cocoa and Malaysia’s palm oil sectors. The pandemic has shown these weaknesses in the sector (Tan et al., 2023). Because of this reliance on global markets, food supply and demand might become unbalanced. At the same time, that reliance can create opportunities for resilience. Traders are critical to linking corporate sustainability targets to real-world impacts in food supply chains (Grabs and Carodenuto, 2021). Through better global connections, risks coming from market dependency can be reduced. To address the challenges of AFSC dependency, countries should develop supply chains with resilience by innovation, early warning mechanism and a middle path between global participation and domestic food security measures (Manikas et al., 2022; Joshi et al., 2023). The financial and industrial limits in developing regions make it hard to implement advanced infrastructure. These areas face challenges not just with limited capital and outdated infrastructure, but also with a shortage of skilled labor and the time-consuming need to train the workforce to manage new technologies properly. Furthermore, applying digital technologies including approaches such as ‘Agri-Food 4.0’ can contribute to lowering food waste, enable real-time tracking, and support scalability (Dadi et al., 2021). Using IoT, big data, and blockchain can assist in establishing traceability and enhancing the efficiency of AFSC systems in developing regions. However, a major challenge for many countries is securing substantial investment for infrastructure development, especially in rural areas with limited access to energy, internet, and logistics, compounded by a lack of financial resources and technical expertise (Bhat et al., 2021; Ahmadzadeh et al., 2023).

As highlighted in the introduction, food security encompasses not only the availability of food but also its access, stability, and utilization. The rise in food costs has impacted family budgets and nutritional stability, especially for vulnerable groups in low-income nations. A 50% hike in food price leads to a reduction of 5–15% in energy intake and a cut of 10–30% in iron intake, depending on income effects (Bouis et al., 2011). In India, the rise in food costs brings a higher likelihood of children becoming malnourished. The rate of emaciation in children, for example, rose from 18.8% in 2006 to 28.0% in 2009 (Vellakkal et al., 2015). When shortages arise, families switch to cheaper brands, purchase larger quantities and plant vegetable gardens. Shortages can affect food quality and variety, especially for the poor and female headed households. As noted by Welch and Graham (2000), malnutrition is not only a result of agricultural inefficiencies but also of poverty, which is a critical barrier to achieving food security. It is necessary to act on these angles simultaneously to give us food security and nutrition (which includes health) through agricultural production and food systems (Welch and Graham, 2000; Haddad, 2000).

The agricultural food supply chain can experience reduced risk and disruption through policy and governance solutions, provided by the farm, Table 2. According to Charlebois et al. (2024), food security, regulatory frameworks, emergency plans, and digital traceability are possible through national food strategies and trade agreements. OECD countries have adopted digital traceability systems to enhance supply chain performance, strengthen food safety, and boost transparency, while simultaneously reinforcing the robustness of disadvantaged SMEs (Ali et al., 2022; Charlebois et al., 2024). The food distribution network functions effectively amid the Covid-19 pandemic, meaning cross-border trade agreements are essential to ensure continuous food flow during the crisis (Hobbs, 2021). Geopolitical occurrences could interrupt agricultural supply chains, highlighting the necessity for robust trade agreements (Belhadi et al., 2024). As per Hong et al. (2023), the government adversely impacts global supply chain performance through trade-related policies and non-tariff measures. Similarly, they promote stability and resilience through research and development incentives, domestic demand stimulation, and subsidy design. Local food systems, including smallholder farms and community networks, help with resilience by being more flexible and not relying so much on global supply chains during disruptions. Technology like blockchain help adaption, while supportive policies strengthen resilience at both the levels (Quayson et al., 2020; Trivellas et al., 2020; Rejeb et al., 2022).

Financial instruments and risk-sharing methods such as agricultural insurance, micro-credit, and weather-indexed insurance can help reduce risks linked to AFSC. According to Al-Maruf et al. (2021), climate-linked crop insurance may lessen the effects of climate-related risks, as demonstrated in a pilot project in Bangladesh. This approach connects the cost of disasters to weather variables and is a better risk transfer mechanism than standard crop insurance. On the contrary, products based on indices improve the likelihood of accessing micro-credit by small agricultural producers and transferring the risk of disaster to the global market (Skees and Barnett, 2006). The effectiveness of different financial instruments, including the WIBCI, depends on the context and the state of their use. A limited amount of data, high cost and illiteracy of farmer insurance, etc., are the challenges (Al-Maruf et al., 2021). As per Ali and Govindan (2021), the use of Industry 4.0 technology in AFSC can mitigate both operational and financial risks during conditions like the COVID-19. AFSC risk management strategy is an integrated set of financial tools, risk transfer mechanisms and technological means. How effective it is, depends on education, participation in additional strategies, and integration with a range of other resilience factors like traceability, collaboration, and agility (Mishra and El-Osta, 2002; Zhao et al., 2017). Future research should make cross-border comparisons and adopt a multi-sectoral approach to better understand risk and sustainable management in AFSCs (Zhao et al., 2024).

AFSC is one of the strategic areas where blockchain and IoT as well as AI should be used to reduce risks, improve traceability and operation efficiency, as illustrated in Figure 3. This figure illustrates technological interventions across AFSC from input to consumption, showing the flow of goods and information. The middle section highlights key technologies such as IoT and sensors, precision agriculture using drones and GIS, blockchain and QR codes, and mobile apps supported by AI, robotics, and digital platforms that enhance forecasting, automation, and market connectivity. These technologies facilitate transparency, monitoring, forecasting, and inventory management in real-time (Rui and Sundram, 2024). AgriBlockIoT, a platform built on blockchain and IoT, aims at improving tracking in AFSC (Odimarha et al., 2024). Quick detection of contaminated items for precise recall helps improve food safety by reducing foodborne illnesses (Oriekhoe et al., 2024). But, the SMEs bear the burden of things like high costs, shortage of skilled labour, data security issues, and the employees’ limited technical knowledge (Rui and Sundram, 2024; Odimarha et al., 2024). It is advised to run pilot projects, train workers, secure data, and get help from government and industry to help address these issues. The bottom section of Figure 3 summarizes the key outcomes of these technological applications, including improved resilience to shocks (e.g., climate or pandemic), increased productivity, reduced waste, enhanced traceability, and inclusion of smallholders through mobile and low-cost digital tools. By tackling these challenges, organizations can create a sustainable and effective AFSC, improving global market presence while also promoting long-term environmental, social, and economic sustainability (Rui and Sundram, 2024; Odimarha et al., 2024).

By shortening supply chains, forming farmer cooperatives, and engaging in urban agriculture, local and regional food systems are strengthened with a view to increasing resilience and sustainability, lessening dependence on global networks, as well as enhancing nutritional stability in areas like the UAE (Sharma et al., 2023). The COVID-19 pandemic underscores that managing interruptions strategically starts with a careful assessment of options available in supply chain design and flexibility. Supplier diversification and multiple procurement are strategies that can help manage disruption effects by reducing the chances of reliance on a single source (Tomlin, 2006; Saghafian and Van Oyen, 2016). Effective inventory management strategies, like positional strategies, help reduce risks in the supply chain. Techniques such as Risk Exposure Index (REI) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) can identify the optimal inventory layout (Gao et al., 2019). The transition from food services to food retail demands readjustments within the agricultural product supply network, since interruptions could occur (Tomlin, 2006; Hobbs, 2021). By investing in strategies like flexible sourcing and multiple delivery locations, supply chain issues can be resolved. Reliability of AFSC can be further improved with supplier diversification. Also, strategic inventory management will help enhance agricultural food supply chain resilience. Building on the earlier points about the importance of flexibility and strategic management in supply chains, investing in automation, digitization, and online deliveries will be key to strengthening resilience and lessen dependence on global networks (Hobbs, 2021). These technologies can directly address the vulnerabilities as discussed before, like disruptions in supply chains, by boosting efficiency, enabling real-time monitoring, and increasing adaptability within agricultural food systems. These shifts, if properly implemented, might be a game-changer in tackling future disruptions.

The importance of public-private partnerships is to use resources, share infrastructure, and plan for the long-term disruptions a man-made or natural disaster can cause, to increase robustness as well as efficiency of AFSC (Gabler et al., 2017). It is especially important that there be public-private cooperation in urban water distribution design. Regional cooperation between public utilities can contribute to enhancing the reliability along with financial stability of the water provision (Gold et al., 2022). Collaborating with public authorities and private enterprises, alongside global cooperation and capacity building, may enhance food supply resilience by improving access to resources, knowledge, and innovations while reducing risks associated with AFSC. According to Zhao et al. (2022), developing training programs and coordinating the efforts of farmers, associations, and other stakeholders can improve adaptability and supply chain resilience. When farmers and workers interact regularly and share knowledge, they better handle challenges that could cause disruption. Digital technology also aids in the design of resilience strategies and uncertainty management in AFSCs (Belhadi et al., 2024). Figure 4 presents the resilience solutions framework comprising five pillars that enhance AFS resilience. These include policy and governance (strategies and regulations), financial instruments (insurance and credit), technological innovations (IoT, AI, blockchain), local food systems (shorter supply chains and diversification), and capacity building (training and partnerships). Together, they improve resilience, reduce vulnerability, and strengthen food security and risk management.