Global warming, defined as a constant increase in the earth’s temperature, has been occurring for some time and has accelerated dramatically during the last century due to the use of fossil fuels. The uncontrolled emission of harmful gases from industries traps heat from the sun in the earth’s atmosphere, consequently increasing the earth’s temperature. This gradual rise snowballs into global warming and climate change, with the capacity to create uncertainties across all countries in the world (Keighley et al., 2018). Climate change has become an undeniable science, and while the variability in the timing of its consequences remains uncertain, the frequency and severity of climate change risks are increasing substantially, leading to property damage and quality of life impacts on communities in Nigeria and around the world.

Real estate is widely regarded as one of the world’s most important economic industries (Farhaoui and Slimani, 2022). It is no wonder that urgent action should be taken to mitigate the difficulties presented by climate risk to the real estate sector in every facet of the business. Many institutional real estate investors are heavily invested in economically significant cities and regions that are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Fisher and Rutledge, 2021). For instance, there are extensive warnings from the Vice Chairman of Coldwell Banker Richard Ellis (CBRE), Mr. Paul Morassutti, in the US, that climate risk will heavily affect the sector in numerous ways (Wang and Zhou, 2021). Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of storms and floods, making large estuary and coastal cities more vulnerable to flooding (Dachary-Bernard and Vergneau, 2023). Extreme weather caused by climate change has led to forced migration, abandonment of property, and erosion of property values in climate-prone areas. Excessive heat and cold are expected to lead to the gradual deterioration of property, making a long-term return on investment in property potentially unfeasible (Karadimitriou et al., 2022). Areas prone to adverse climate effects like storms, heat waves, and intense droughts can see reduced property prices, as these properties appear less attractive and appealing to consumers, thus reducing demand (Ashaolu, 2018). Thankfully, concerted public investment in infrastructure for risk mitigation is critical to ensuring adaptation to climate-related dangers and natural disasters (Truong and Trück, 2016).

Unfortunately, awareness of the issue of climate risk appears to be low, especially in developing countries. This lack of awareness has led to immense damage to property through global warming and other climate risks. The perception of global warming varies among individuals, making it crucial for people to have a good understanding of climate risks to create effective adaptation strategies to mitigate their impact on property. Perception involves the use of sensory and cognitive processes to appreciate, value, discern, rank, and compare things. As much as scientists have predicted climate crises, understanding the perception of climate change effects helps determine people’s knowledge level on the subject. As people become more aware of climate risks, there may be a behavioral change or shift in demand for properties in safer and more climate-resilient locations. This awareness can lead to better property management practices that positively impact the durability of the property, its rent, prices, and property values, resulting in intense competition for available land amid spiraling demand. The aim of this paper is to examine tenants’ perception of the effects of climate change on residential properties in Ikeja, Lagos State, to provide information that could enhance real estate investment.

The phenomenal rise in population in Nigeria will increase pressure on limited land resources, resulting in an acute shortage of houses, leading to overcrowding, high rent, depression, and a reduction in the quality of life for those living in urban areas (Aluko, 2010). The population rise, combined with climate change and other socioeconomic factors, can cause considerable strain on land resources. Rapid population growth coupled with climate change has been found to result in rapidly expanding slums (Ajibade and McBean, 2014; Oloyede et al., 2014) and other forms of informal settlements (Cobbinah and Finn, 2023). Consequently, climate change can have significant effects on different aspects of property (Ezennia and Hoskara, 2019).

Climate change contributes to property defects, although properties or buildings are commonly understood to be subject to faults, typically occurring in building sections such as roofs, walls, floors, ceilings, toilets, doors, and windows (Amusan et al., 2019). The effects of climate change on building defects have not received much attention in African countries like Nigeria. The study by Bakri and Mydin (2014) discovered regular building defects, including timber decay, wall cracks, erosion of mortar joints, peeling paint, defective plaster rendering, dampness, insect or termite attacks, fungi and small plant attacks, roof defects, sagging or deformation, and imbalance in foundation and services, but found no link to climate change. In Malaysia, Ali et al. (2013) focused on detecting building elements with design flaws, discovering common design flaws in building façades and missing slots beneath floor slabs, but did not identify flaws attributable to climate change, particularly in residential buildings. Chong and Low (2006) investigated failure mechanisms resulting in design-related latent defects and the design parameters that could be employed to prevent those flaws. In a survey conducted over 9 months on 74 buildings, the study discovered defects such as paint and plaster patching, stains, water seepage, chipped concrete, tile cracks, plaster cracks, paint peeling and blistering, and tile propping. The major three design-related failure causes were impacts from occupants, weather impacts, and load and moisture from wet areas. Looking at the impacts of climate change on property in developed countries, Miller and Hutchins (2017) investigated the impact of climate change on commercial property in the UK. The study identified effects of climate risk on buildings, including more frequent flooding, increased temperature variation on building interiors and exteriors, frequent storms and severe winds, increased winter rainfall, and summer drought influencing weather penetration and causing structural damage. Similar studies are needed in African countries such as Nigeria to reflect each region’s unique characteristics.

Wemabod Estate is one of several estates located in Ikeja with many residential units. The estate is large compared to many other estates in the area. This study finds Wemabod Estate an appropriate location for the study to fill the gap in literature, as there are limited studies on this subject in the country, for the following reasons:

The study population comprised residents of Wemabod Estate. The absence of reliable census data necessitated the adoption of purposive sampling. A sample of 100 residents was used (Denieffe, 2020). The estate, with its modern and up-to-date infrastructure containing over 250 housing units, has strict security, inhibiting easy access to the residents. Personnel working within the estate helped obtain information from the residents. Purposeful sampling was used to recruit respondents via a questionnaire designed solely for this purpose.

A questionnaire was developed based on the questionnaires and ideas presented by Allu (2014), Henseke and Breuste (2015), Pisello et al. (2017), and Fajilla et al. (2020). The questionnaire was divided into five sections. The first section contains demographic data. The second section measures the perception of climate change. The third section is divided into two subsections: the first subsection measures the effect of climate change on individuals, while the second subsection measures the effect of climate change on property. The fourth section assesses different dimensions of the effect of climate change on property. Finally, the fifth section evaluates the effect of climate change on property value.

Residents under the age of 18, hawkers, and non-residents with shops were not contacted and were not part of the study. The statistical methods used for data analysis included mean ranking, analysis of variance, t-test, and frequency analysis. A significant level of 0.05 was adopted for this study unless otherwise stated.

This paper has shown a fair level of awareness of climate change among residents in Wemabod Estate, Ikeja, Nigeria. An adequate level of climate change awareness is needed to build adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impending challenges associated with rapidly changing climatic conditions (Akinola et al., 2020; Quandt et al., 2022). The Internet is the major source of information on climate change, which corroborates similar findings in Madaki et al. (2023). This is unsurprising as the estate is located in Lagos, Nigeria, a largely urbanized area with high internet and information and communication technology penetration. Expectedly, human activities are culpable for the looming climate crises, which, according to the respondents, have already been felt in Nigeria and around Africa (Tantoh et al., 2021).

This research revealed that while extreme heat and flooding are the leading effects of climate change on the environment, paint peeling, cracks on the wall, and roof leakage are the major manifestations in buildings. Climate change poses a severe and escalating threat to the built environment, exacerbated by the 4th industrial revolution. The impact on human life and housing is imminent, with rising temperatures and extreme weather events causing damage to houses, leading to shortages, displacement, destitution, homelessness, and health crises (Olagunju et al., 2021; Campbell et al., 2023). Recent natural disasters, such as flooding in some parts of Nigeria, underscore the urgent need for global support to address climate change’s devastating consequences on the overall wellbeing of Nigerians (Hassan et al., 2020). This also concurs with the submission from the respondents, who were of the opinion that climate change has impacted houses and rent, while reductions in rent, and faster rates of obsolescence are the major effects of climate change on property management. A similar submission can be found in Giglio et al. (2021).

The findings revealed variations in the knowledge level and perceptions of climate change among the respondents, with substantial mean differences observed based on gender, age, education, and duration of residence. These demographic factors play a pivotal role in shaping the understanding and perspectives of respondents regarding climate change. The disparities indicate that targeted interventions in the form of educational initiatives and awareness campaigns need to consider the diverse demographic characteristics of the population to effectively address gaps in climate change knowledge and perceptions. Implementation strategies can enhance engagement and promote a more comprehensive understanding of climate change across various demographic groups, contributing to a more informed and inclusive approach to climate action. Inclusivity here implies going beyond the respondents to involve other stakeholders that would move the needle in this aspect.

A substantial 82% of respondents in the Wemabod estate expressed the belief that climate change exerts an effect on their homes, highlighting a widespread acknowledgment of the environmental threat. Further analysis revealed that 57% of respondents perceived a direct effect of climate change on their homes, emphasizing the obvious consequences experienced by a significant portion of the surveyed population. Additionally, 51% of respondents believed that climate change extends its influence to rental dynamics, reflecting a worrying concern about the broader implications of climate change on the real estate sector, encompassing both owned and rented residential spaces. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate resilience measures in housing and rental policies to address the identified concerns and promote sustainable living environments in Lagos, which is facing a housing crisis characterized by rapid urbanization, a growing population, and inadequate housing infrastructure (Auwalu and Bello, 2023). Failure to address the effect of climate change on housing will worsen the current shortage of affordable housing, leading to informal settlements, rent racketeering, overcrowded living conditions, and housing insecurity for a significant portion of the population that lives below the poverty level, which becomes magnified during the COVID-19 pandemic (Obasi and Anierobi, 2021).

This paper also found that a reduction in attracting tenants is the major effect of climate change on property value, which is closely followed by a faster rate of home damage. Reduction of property value came in third, while the last two were difficulty in property management and a higher insurance premium. These findings highlight the immediate challenges of tenant vacancy and increased repair costs, stressing the urgent need for climate-resilient building practices and adaptation strategies in Nigeria’s real estate sector. On the other hand, this paper has shown that most houses in Nigeria are not insured, as the respondents ranked insurance low. This is consistent with the country having a low level of health insurance coverage among its citizens (Alawode and Adewole, 2021).

Strikingly, the study indicates that gender and occupation do not yield discernible differences in the apparent effects of climate change on property values. This implies that, regardless of gender or occupational background, the adverse consequences of climate change on the market are uniformly recognized, emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate these effects and foster resilience in the property sector.

A combination of private, government, nongovernmental, and international development agencies is recommended to form synergy to craft measures to reduce the effects of climate change, especially in high-risk areas and low-resource settings. Further buildings must incorporate sustainability, intended to serve as an adaptation and coping strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change. Budgetary allocation for climate change planning, greening, and sustainability is highly recommended.

This study was limited to the perception of the residents to climate risk effects on residential property. Studies have shown that limited research have been done in this area, and therefore the need for more studies to fill the gap in literature. Moreover, the challenges of climate risk in the country, and across the globe has transcended beyond mere perception. There is the need for further study to measure the effects of climate change that have been seen, or have occurred in the study area, and by extension, in other regions of the country with a view to determine the exact adaptation and mitigation strategy that can be adopted. The last limitation is the adoption of purposive sampling limits the generalization of the findings. Hence, the result may not be generalized across Nigeria because of huge demographic differences across the six geopolitical regions of the country. Further studies could involve extending the survey to all the geopolitical regions and running a comparative analysis between urban and rural areas of Nigeria. The absence of extant literature in this context presents research opportunities that could be explored.

The study shed light on the effects of climate change on residential properties in Lagos State. Findings in relation to the data garnered from the residents of Wemabod Estate, being the case study for the research, revealed that majority of the residents are well learned, mostly graduates of tertiary institutions, who are expected to be vast in knowledge about happening in their surroundings, and across the globe, as they are expected to be well exposed to the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and also knowledgeable about the concept of climate change. Most of the respondents can be adjudged to have good level of awareness of climate change from the findings.

The findings in respect of whether residential characteristics, age, gender, level of education, and difference in knowledge level of climate risk, were the major features that impacted on the strategy adopted by the residents in coping and adaptating to climate change, showed that there are significant mean differences of knowledge level in climate change and perception of climate change based on the demographic factors. Extreme heat and flooding are the two major perceived effects or manifestations of climate change on the environment, while strong winds and irregular rainfall follow in descending order as the other manifestations of climate risk which has resulted in peeling of paints, cracks on the walls, roof leakage, foundation shake, and burst pipes as identified by the respondents in descending order of perception. Emanating from this is the fact that, these manifestations are more prevalent in this part of the world, and therefore property owners should watch against extreme cases of these effects and take steps to secure their properties from losses and damages arising from these risks or threats.

The most important conclusion is that climate change is not only a pressing environmental issue but also a significant driver of change in the property market and in property management practices. Climate risk affects all areas of the property estate market, from growing costs to the fall in appeal of specific regions and decline in demand of affected properties. Higher temperatures, storms, flooding, amongst other, are incidents impacting negatively on properties, result in difficulty in managing the cost and condition of property regularly. It is expected that more occupants of buildings would rely on electricity to power fans and HVAC systems to keep cool. The same is true for an increase in water usage. These developments may create an additional strain on the electrical grid and city resources. An increase in the demand for these resources will result in an increase in their prices. Damages due to weather variations, impacts seriously on properties making them start to lose their appeal which may result in loss or lower profit when attempting to sell a home in a high-risk location.

The study recommends the need for homeowners and users to take further steps away from being well acquainted with the truth about climate change and its impact on residential property, to acquire knowledge on how to mitigate the effects of climate and deploying such knowledge to mitigate the effects of climate on residential properties. The increasing relationship between climate change and property emphasizes the significance of remaining aware and proactive in dealing with these complicated concerns in a changing environment.