The recent international literature drew our attention to a new method, according to which ball games can be examined from the point of view of how the abilities of individual players influence victory. These studies classify basketball as a strong-link sport, as opposed to soccer, which is considered a weak-link sport (1, 2). This means that in soccer, the ability of the eleventh player largely determines the performance of the team, while in basketball, it is the team's best player(s) who determines the performance of the whole team. Other research also concludes that superstars in basketball increase a team's chance of winning by 8.48 percentage points (3). It is also important to know how many such stars are there in the team and that we use them in balance with teamwork (4). Too much talent can be counterproductive in certain situations (5), especially if players cannot work for one another and together.

In basketball, it is often necessary to evaluate offensive and defensive contributions together to assess a player's overall impact on a team's performance or victory. Determining whether offense or defense is more critical depends on the team's playing style, the country's basketball culture, or even a specific opponent.

Previous research highlights the imbalance in how offense and defense are valued. For example, fans do not necessarily prefer offense over defense in terms of spending. In the NBA, teams compensate offensive production approximately 150% more than defensive production, despite evidence suggesting that win-maximizing teams should value both equally (6). This discrepancy reflects a labor market imbalance in the NBA (7).

In basketball, as opposed to handball, we try to educate and select players during team building who are able to solve complex challenges on both sides of the court. Such players are often called “Two-Way players.” This is crucial in “strong-link” sports like basketball, where key players have to create significant impact on both ends of the court.

According to popular belief, EuroLeague and NBA players create an incredibly large impact on the game. This is partially true when compared with other sports, but then the questions arise: exactly how much influence can a player have on the match and its outcome? Can these players guarantee victory? Can they get a team to the playoffs? By exactly how much will the team's number of wins increase if we sign them? Should we sign a “two-way” player, a really good offensive player, and/or a defensive one?

Even in systems built around a star player, there are possessions where the star is not involved. They might not take the shot, get fouled, or commit a turnover. In addition, every player rests apart from exceptional cases like Wilt Chamberlain's 1962 season, where he played every minute of every game. Desmond Washington, the Hungarian first division's most-used player in 2022/2023, averaged 36 min per game but still missed a significant portion of playtime and possessions. His team averaged 99 possessions per game, and he was on the court in 89.7 possessions. Edwin Devon was the second player who spent the most time on the court, but he was on the bench for more than 15 possessions. His team had 97.6 in average, but he was involved in 81.9 possessions. The top scorer (Perry Darius) of the league spent less time on the court, but thanks to his team's playing style, he was on the court in 84.4 out of his team's 100 possessions.

Star players often dominate offensively, but they cannot do that much in defense. For example, defenders actively participate in approximately only 30% of defensive possessions, while offensive players are involved in 52% of offensive plays. Defensive specialists may have a usage rate below 30%, meaning that they directly impact fewer than one-third of defensive possessions (7). The reason is that good defenders are directly omitted by the opponent from their attacks.

We wanted to find out what makes one more effective link (at team level) stronger than another. What individual statistical indicators can be the ones that contribute to the team's victories. Therefore, we selected those statistical indicators that, according to the literature, have an impact on the team's victory. We wanted to take a look at the individual contribution of the players in these categories, and we wished to compare these indicators with the individual performance of players and the overall effectiveness of the team.

One of the starting points for selecting the variables was Dean Oliver's (2004) four-factor theory. This theory predicted team performance in the NBA with 96%success in recent seasons. According to Oliver (8), the determining factors of performance are effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate.

Other studies also highlighted that field goals and defensive rebounds are among the most critical keys to winning (9–11). Fouls and free throws are also significant, especially in close games (12).

The performance of winning teams depends on the quality of players’ decision-making and well-defined strategic decisions based on the effectiveness and efficiency of field goals in a tactical team environment (13).

Defensive rebounds mean that the team can recover the ball after missed shots by an opponent (13). A successful defensive rebounding team has more opportunities to score points and win matches (9, 11, 14). High-level rebounding performance is closely related to players’ anthropometric characteristics, muscle strength, and technical and tactical preparation (15). As the number of ball possessions and points shot from fast break increases on a team level, the number of high-intensity sprints also increases per player (16).

In recent decades, the offensive game of basketball has changed significantly. One of the main reasons for this is the higher number of three-point attempts and successful three-pointers, while the number of two-pointers (mostly mid-range shots) has decreased (17–19).

This happens for a simple reason: three-pointers are worth more than two-pointers. If someone can shoot 50% from mid-range, this equals only 1 point per possession, whereas achieving the same result requires just 33.3% shooting accuracy from a three-point range (20). Kilcoyne (21) also confirmed the increase in three-pointers and close attempts in his research, as well as the decrease in the number and importance of mid-range attempts. Another driving factor contributing to the switch of spot selection between the long-distance and 16–24 ft is that players are primarily encouraged to drive to the basket or shoot a three-pointer. Kilcoyne found that better teams shoot fewer mid-range shots, maintain a higher pace, and achieve better defensive ratings, which were the most critical factors in winning games during the 2015–2019 NBA seasons.

Multiple factors affect a team's performance during a regular NBA season, for instance, coaches’ tactics, basketball players’ fitness, and game location —home or away— (22). These factors can be divided into two categories, namely, player performance and external factors. The player performance among others includes players’ shooting accuracy, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws. External factors include game locations and coaches’ tactics (23).

Teramoto and Cross (24) discussed the relative importance of performance factors in winning basketball games using 1999–2009 NBA data. Their results indicated that both offensive and defensive field goal percentages are the most critical aspects of the game in the regular season. In addition, efficient offense and defense are essential to success in the regular season.

Among the many performance indicators, the shooting accuracy of field goals in basketball games is found as a critical factor that determines the outcome of basketball games at different levels of professional leagues (25–27). This is true in the regular season as well as in the playoffs (28).

Kilcoyne (21) found a decline in the mid-range jump shot, defined as field goals with a shooting distance in the range of 8–24 ft, by analyzing NBA data from the 2005–2006 season through 2018–2019. The number of field goal attempts and field goal accuracy from each of the four segments in the first quarter is higher than those in the corresponding segment in the remaining three quarters (23).

We are looking for a method that makes the contribution of the players to the victory within the team measurable and that can be compared with other teams. The Hungarian championship is completely unique internationally, because with the introduction of the so-called mandatory youth rule, it is possible to classify players into three categories and examine them accordingly. We intend to obtain scientific results pertaining to the added value of domestically trained, imported, and young players to the team. We aimed to determine the difference between the strongest links and to assess whether the applied test method is sufficient to provide a general answer to this question.

Thanks to the youth rule, not only outstanding foreign and older Hungarian-educated players are needed for a successful season, but also young players who can contribute to victory with their performance, which is based on the previously mentioned theory that basketball is a strong-link sport.

What does this mean? We intend to know whether the players who perform well individually (have the most individual VAL) are really placed in better teams, whether they are more effective, and what are the main differences between these players (from a basketball statistical point of view).

During the research, several questions emerged in our reflections. How many times have the most valuable players in the NBA/the EuroLeague/the Hungarian league won championship titles with their teams in the last 10 years? Is there any association between individual performance and the number of team victories, and the team's overall effectiveness? What are the individual statistical indicators that significantly influence or explain the player's performance in individual ranking? Is there a difference between defensive and offensive indicators? What is the relationship—if any—between individual scoring and position in the individual ranking? What weight do three-pointers carry in this context? To what extent do defensive statistics have an effect on or explain individual ranking? Is it possible to deduce the roles of players in different categories from statistics (point scorers, defenders, three-point shooters, rebounders, etc.)? What are the differences between foreign, domestic, and young players?

The data were provided by the InStat (33) video analysis software and Fullcourt, the official basketball statistical program of the Hungarian leagues. In our research, we examined the 2022/2023 regular season of the Hungarian NB I/A group championship. The sample included 210 player profiles. According to the specific rules, we classified these players into three groups: 1.

Import group: Players appearing in the league as foreign nationals (68 players).

Each player had one full league season in the sample. To obtain more accurate results and avoid bias, we narrowed down the sample. The narrowing criterion was a minimum of 14 matches played (more than 50% of the games), and those who did not meet this criterion were excluded.

As a result, the final sample consisted of 137 players: 39 from the Hungarian U23 group, 43 from the Hungarian-educated group, and 55 from the import group.

Superstar players have their advantages. They increase the team's chances of winning (3). When looking at the impact of superstar players in terms of playoff performance and not just Game Related Statistics (GRS), previous research clearly shows that these exceptional talents can make a significant difference between playoff and non-playoff teams. Such players play a key role in critical situations: they score decisive points from isolation, as a pick and roll handler, post-up player, and catch and shoot situations (29). However, there is also a research that suggests that while points scored from isolation may still be crucial in the playoffs, their frequency is decreasing, while the number of catch and shoot, pick-and-roll-roller, and transition situations is increasing. This suggests that not only the individual solutions of star players play a key role, but also the cooperation within the team and the involvement of other players significantly contribute to success (30). Also, there will be a disadvantage if there are too many superstars in a team, if—for example—their presence disrupts the balance within the team and negatively overturns the hierarchy. Too much talent can be counterproductive in certain situations (5). It should also be acknowledged that even if they are on the court, they cannot influence every ball possession either in attack or in defense (7). Previous research suggests that basketball is a strong-link sport. The stronger is your strongest link, the better you finish in the season (1, 2). However, we found that the strongest link (based on their individual value) in the league had won only one championship in both the NBA and the EuroLeague in the last 10 seasons, but not even once in the Hungarian championship, in the given years. There is generally a moderate connection between MVPs and their team rankings, especially in the NBA and the EuroLeague, where MVPs often play for top-performing teams. In the Hungarian NB I/A league, MVP players are less tied to team rankings.

In the examined sample, there is no strong connection between the player's VAL ranking and the team's position in the regular season in any of the groups. There is an intermediate and strong negative correlation between the VAL ranking and the individual scored points. The relationship is the strongest among young players; the more points they scored, the higher they finished in the individual VAL ranking. The two-point shooting percentage was related to the VAL ranking for all three groups. However, the role of the mid-range shooting percentage was detectable only in foreign and Hungarian-educated players. The three-point shooting percentage was related to VAL ranking only among young players. This reinforces Kilcoyne's (21) claim that the importance and role of mid-range shots is decreasing.

The free throw percentage showed an intermediate and strong relationship in all three categories, meaning that successful free throw shots played an important role in individual performance.

In addition to shooting percentage, defensive rebounding is also very important for winning (9, 14). Nevertheless, only in the case of young players was there an intermediate and strong correlation between individual VAL and field work (in all metrics except shot blocking). There was a particularly strong relationship between defensive rebounds and individual VAL rankings. This is especially valuable from a winning perspective (13).

In none of the groups was there a correlation between the individual points scored by the players and the team's ranking. In terms of individual scoring, the close, mid-range, three-point, and free throw shooting percentages among the imported players had an intermediate and great impact. The number of three-pointers is growing and playing an increasingly dominant role in scoring (18, 21).

In the case of young players, there was no strong connection between the mid-range percentage and individually scored points. However, we found a stronger relationship for the other shot types, which presumably follow international trends in shot selection (17).

The individual defensive and offensive rating values show a strong correlation with the team's position in the regular season for foreign and young players. Hungarian-educated players also had a strong association with OffRtg and an intermediate association with DefRtg. The effective individual defensive and offensive performance of the strong links had a significant impact on their team's championship performance. They played with few mistakes. Therefore, there was a very strong relationship with NetRtg in all three groups. Our research also confirms that it is worth examining the offensive (OffRtg), defensive (DefRtg), and net efficiency (NetRtg) indicators of players separately and not just relying on the VAL that expresses individual performance. In current evaluation systems, individual and team goals are not aligned: individual indicators are often independent of team effectiveness, whereas overall indicators such as IBM do not reliably reflect team performance. These indicators typically measure absolute performance, ignoring efficiency, game pace, and number of attacks. In addition, team-level cooperation—which is essential for success—is not valued, thus allowing room for self-serving, opportunistic play styles. In terms of defense, the current statistical system rewards only spectacular, clear events (e.g., rebounds, steals), while ignoring activities that force opponents to make mistakes—which can distort the assessment of real performance (31).

There is a performance hierarchy within the groups based on the six main indicators. The foreign players perform on the highest level, then the Hungarian-educated players, followed by the Youth players. In terms of stability, Hungarians are the most balanced, whereas youth players show the most extreme variations. Examining the offensive and defensive rating impact, we can state that all three groups have similar OffRtg and DefRtg values, but the Net Rating is slightly negative across the board. This may indicate that, on average, the league allows slightly more points than it scores, although it could also simply reflect a characteristic of the measurement context.

In the Hungarian NB I/A league, MVP players are less tied to team rankings, likely due to the league's lower competitive balance and the differing roles of players within the teams. When evaluating individual performance, it is not worth simply taking the players’ averages and comparing them. In addition to traditional statistical indicators, we must also examine complex values such as the NET rating or the values derived from ball possessions. Or we should consider standardizing the players for 40 min. This way we can get a more realistic picture. Then, a probability may arise that the best player in the examined season plays for the team at the bottom of the table, while the best player of the champion team is pushed further back in the individual VAL ranking. However, if we were to take the 40-min average of both players, then the best player of the champion team would perform more effectively. This supports the theories mentioned above that the strongest link plays in the best team. This is true only if we start from the assumption that the player's performance does not deteriorate if the number of minutes played is increased.

Because of the tactical skills involved, youngsters take on only close shots and clear open shots from the three-point line. Among young players, the international trend of fading midrange volume is even more pronounced. In addition, the inexperience of young players and the possibility of their being physical challenged can hold them back in some cases. However, these limitations can be consciously addressed and controlled. Young players who follow a structured shooting program improve both their statistical indicators and their competitive performance (32).

Our most important statement is that VAL ranking was more influenced by offensive performance than defensive performance. Neither the individual VAL ranking nor the individual points scored showed a relationship with the team's final ranking; however, the individual defensive and offensive values and the individual NET value did. In other words, good individual performance is more influenced by offensive performance (OffRtg), while defensive performance (DefRtg) is equally important for the team's performance and competitiveness.

An evaluation of the young players shows that their performance is influenced by limited playing time and experience, potentially distorting the results. This study relies solely on quantitative metrics, overlooking psychological, tactical, and social factors affecting performance. We would like to extend the examination to several future seasons and also compare the results with other top European leagues.