AUTHOR=Thuany Mabliny , Weiss Katja , Valero David , Villiger Elias , Andrade Marilia S. , Nikolaidis Pantelis T. , Scheer Volker , de Lira Claudio Andre Barbosa , Vancini Rodrigo Luiz , Cuk Ivan , Braschler Lorin , Rosemann Thomas , Knechtle Beat 

TITLE=An analysis of the 6-h ultra-marathon race using a machine learning approach

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Sports and Active Living

VOLUME=Volume 7 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sports-and-active-living/articles/10.3389/fspor.2025.1577470

DOI=10.3389/fspor.2025.1577470

ISSN=2624-9367

ABSTRACT=BackgroundUltra-marathon running popularity is increasing, with the 6-h run being the shortest time-limited ultra-marathon. Since very little is known regarding the country from which the fastest 6-h runners originate, the fastest age group, and where the fastest 6-h race courses are located, this study aims to close this gap.MethodsA machine learning model based on the XG Boost algorithm was built to predict running speed based on the athletés age, gender, country of origin, and the country where the race takes place. Model explainability tools were used to investigate how each independent variable would influence the predicted running speed. To assess the impact of individual performance against the other variables under study, a Mixed Effects Linear Model was also built.ResultsA total of 117,882 race records from 51,018 unique runners from 65 countries participating in races held in 56 different countries were analyzed. Participation is spread across a wide range of countries, with a high correlation between the country of origin and the country of the event. Most runners originated from Germany, Italy, France, the USA, and Sweden, with Europe (Belgium, Russia, Spain, Poland, Romania, and Lithuania), being the fastest. Most athletes competed in Italy, Germany, France, the USA, and The Netherlands. The fastest average running speeds were also achieved in European countries (Russia, Belgium, Poland, Netherlands, Romania, Croatia, and Lithuania).ConclusionsFor athletes competing in a 6-h ultramarathon, gender was the most important predictor, followed by the origin of the athlete, the age, and the race location. The 6-h running event seems to be dominated by European athletes regarding both participation and performance.