The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted societies worldwide, reshaping economies, public health, and youth career trajectories, with international studies reporting declining career optimism and increasing uncertainty among adolescents (Hussong et al., 2021; Carey et al., 2023). Economically, Romania demonstrated remarkable resilience with a milder GDP contraction in 2020 (−3.7%) compared to the European Union average (−6.1%) and steeper declines in Italy (−9.6%) and France (−8.9%) (Siegel, 2024), attributed to less restrictive lockdowns in industry and construction, along with a stable agricultural sector, with Bihor County specifically benefiting from government interventions despite export disruptions (Negrea and Bekesi, 2020), followed by robust recovery with GDP rebounding by 5.9% in 2021, surpassing the EU’s 5.3% growth, and continued expansion in 2022 (4.8% vs. the EU’s 3.4%), supported by financial aid and NRRP investments (Union, E, 2024; Eurostat, 2024). However, Romania experienced severe social impacts, including an excess mortality rate of 30.3% in September 2021—one of the highest in the EU (Chirtoc, 2021)—and life expectancy dropping to 72.8 years, reversing 14 years of progress (Stiftung, 2023), while education was significantly disrupted with schools remaining fully closed for 108 days and partially closed for another 49 days—one of the longest shutdowns in Europe compared to the UNECE average of 13 weeks (UNICEF, 2021; UNECE, 2022)—resulting in approximately 1.5 years of educational disruption and severe learning losses that surpassed those in countries like the Netherlands, where disruptions lasted only a few months (Shmis et al., 2020; Romania-Insider, 2022; Rajasekaran and Casap, 2022). This study examines the career aspirations of Romanian eighth graders within this unique context of economic resilience coupled with severe educational and social disruptions, offering valuable insights into how these macroeconomic and social factors influenced youth career trajectories.

Romanian adolescents demonstrate complex patterns in career development, with research revealing that gender, maternal occupational status as measured by the International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI), ethnicity, and academic achievements significantly shape their professional aspirations, though students belonging to the Hungarian ethnic minority exhibit lower levels of career clarity compared to their Romanian counterparts (Mikó and Hatos, 2024). While occupational aspirations appear relatively stable over time, providing reasonable validity for career choice responses, Romanian youth face a substantial migration challenge, as almost half of young people aged between 16 and 35 express a desire to emigrate (Cristea et al., 2021), with younger individuals showing higher emigration probabilities (Roman and Vasilescu, 2016). This brain drain phenomenon (Iacob, 2018) is particularly pronounced among technical university students, where economic factors serve as the primary migration driver, potentially resulting in Romania losing up to 40% of its population by 2060 due to outward migration (Gherheș et al., 2020). The convergence of these factors creates a scenario where Romanian adolescents maintain ambitious career aspirations influenced by socioeconomic background, while simultaneously considering international opportunities for better economic prospects and living standards (Petru-Cristian, 2024; Ion et al., 2022; Mikó and Hatos, 2024).

The pandemic potentially reshaped adolescents’ career aspirations, occupational status perceptions, and international mobility intentions (Hatos and Gyarmati, 2023), yet little is known about how these evolved over time in this specific context. The pandemic’s multifaceted effects—including economic uncertainty, shifts in labor markets, changes in educational delivery, and altered social dynamics—likely created complex changes in how young people envision their professional futures and geographic mobility. However, little empirical evidence exists examining how these critical developmental outcomes evolved during this unprecedented period.

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted adolescents’ well-being, social interactions, education, and career-related decisions. Studies reported decreased positive affect and increased negative affect among teens during this period (Cockerham et al., 2021), with heightened levels of anxiety, depression, and loneliness linked to prolonged social isolation (Bemme et al., 2021; Pierce et al., 2025). Research on Romanian adolescents by Maftei et al. (2022) showed that most children and adolescents associated masks with the coronavirus, predominantly evoking sadness (45.2%) and fear (17.4%), while online schooling was perceived negatively due to poor interaction and disruption of regular routines. Similarly, a study conducted on Romanian adolescents by Mareş et al. (2022) found that the pandemic and online schooling influenced students’ career decisions, generating confusion and indecision, especially among disadvantaged groups, as limited access to job shadowing and orientation visits reduced exposure to reliable career information sources. Despite a strong desire for self-determination, disadvantaged students often relied on family, particularly parents (32.7%), and professionals in the field of interest (45.8%) for guidance, while formal education remained a key factor in career decision-making. Importantly, although Maftei et al. (2022) identified positive thoughts and strengthened family relationships as coping strategies, more than half of their participants perceived no positive outcomes of the pandemic, while 40% emphasized increased family time as beneficial. By contrast, Mareş et al. (2022) highlighted that many disadvantaged Romanian adolescents maintained an optimistic outlook on their professional future, with 43% strongly believing in their creative potential and 35% envisioning future success despite the crisis. Complementing these findings, international research showed increased time spent alone, often on computer games, social media, and television (Kalenkoski and Pabilonia, 2025), and widespread dissatisfaction with remote education, which raised concerns about school dropout and inequalities, particularly affecting marginalized groups (Ramaiya et al., 2023). Overall, these results emphasize that while the pandemic exacerbated psychosocial difficulties and educational disparities, it also revealed adolescents’ resilience and self-determination in navigating personal, academic, and career-related challenges, underscoring the need for targeted interventions that prioritize mental health, career guidance, and equitable educational opportunities in post-pandemic recovery efforts (Pierce et al., 2025; Ramaiya et al., 2023).

In the research literature, career aspirations are broadly defined as the ambitions, expectations, and desired conditions an individual holds for their future professional life. In our research, we focus on the social status, or prestige, of occupational aspirations of youth, as a variant of quantitatively describing career aspirations, measured as the status of profession one desires to have at 30 using well-established scales of occupational status (SIOPS).

The COVID-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented surge in research on youth career aspirations, both educational and professional, explored through diverse designs ranging from cross-sectional studies (Akbari and Faisal, 2023; Ashta et al., 2023; Yarde et al., 2022) and longitudinal approaches (Baskar et al., 2022; Glick et al., 2025; von Soest et al., 2022), to quantitative and qualitative investigations (Desrochers et al., 2020; Henkens et al., 2022), employing methods such as direct survey questions on educational aspirations as proxies for career expectations (Glick et al., 2025), Likert scales and factor analysis to assess optimism (Fakkel et al., 2023), occupational certainty and ambition indicators across multinational datasets (Mann et al., 2020), stress, and self-efficacy measures including the CDMSE-SF (Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy—Short Form) (Ashta et al., 2023; Wahyuningsih et al., 2023), retrospective questions despite reliability concerns (Akbari and Faisal, 2023; Baskar et al., 2022; Cournoyer and Rohner, 1996; Hatos and Gyarmati, 2023), and field-specific surveys such as Strohmeier et al. (2024) on digital professions, Tran et al. (2020) on STEM-oriented students, and Zhang et al. (2022) who documented a rise in interest in medical careers from 17.5 to 29.6% among Chinese adolescents.

Although several articles conclude that aspirations declined, few refer to quantitative measures of aspirations beyond educational aspirations. While occupational status is one of the most common measures of occupational aspiration, such measures were rarely used in the reviewed literature. Although some articles refer to changes in perspective concerning specific job categories—such as STEM or medical professions—few approach the entire spectrum of occupations from which students can choose.

The current study addresses these gaps by utilizing longitudinal data to examine changes in career certainty, occupational status aspirations measured through established indices (ISEI, SIOPS), and international mobility intentions among Romanian adolescents, comparing pre-pandemic and during-pandemic periods in a context characterized by unique economic resilience coupled with severe educational disruptions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine changes in adolescents’ career aspirations, occupational status perceptions, and international mobility intentions by comparing pre-pandemic and during-pandemic data, with findings offering important insights for understanding post-pandemic youth development and informing educational and career guidance policies in the recovery period.

Although some research points to orientation toward emerging fields, other studies highlight declines in aspirations, future projections, and career planning. Recognizing that the available research is hardly conclusive and that opposite expectations could also be proposed, we predict the following changes in dimensions related to career aspirations from values before the pandemic (MERPAS 1: 2018–2019) to values measured during the pandemic (MERPAS 2: 2021 and MERPAS 3: 2022), among eighth graders in Bihor County, Romania:

The evolution of career aspirations among teenage students relates to the demand for education and qualifications, a topic of particular interest to scholars within the human capital tradition. Human capital theory provides a framework for understanding this demand, emphasizing education as an investment decision based on a cost–benefit analysis (Becker, 1964). According to Becker (1964), individuals make educational decisions by weighing the expected returns on their investment in education, such as higher earnings and improved employment prospects, against the direct and indirect costs, including tuition fees and forgone earnings during their studies. Crises, such as financial downturns and pandemics, significantly impact this calculation by altering both expected benefits and perceived costs.

The model proposed by Becker (2009) supports both an increase and a decrease in educational demand, depending on the relative strength of financial constraints, opportunity costs, and perceived returns on education. The COVID-19 pandemic was unique in that it lowered opportunity costs (fewer job opportunities) while also introducing new barriers, such as financial struggles, technology gaps, and psychological stress.

Therefore, human capital theory (Becker, 1964) supports the central concept of our study that the investment in education, training, and experience generates future ‘performance.’ In this framework, foundational career optimism is understood as the belief in one’s ability to complete this educational investment. However, at the same time, the theory acknowledges that these outcomes are uncertain (career uncertainty), are not guaranteed, and depend on constantly changing factors (such as social networks, structural privileges, or systemic barriers etc.).

Another theory that brings a relevant perspective on the issue of optimism and uncertainty in careers is the Covid-19 Career Shock Theory (Akkermans et al., 2018; Akkermans et al., 2020), which frames the pandemic as a ‘career shock’ or disruptive external event.

This theory emphasizes that young people’s navigation between optimism (their core belief in a positive future) and uncertainty (the career shock) will depend on their ‘career adaptability’ (Savickas, 1997), the ability to adjust their career strategies in response to new contextual barriers. However, it should be noted that a high level of professional insecurity could exhaust adolescents’ foundational career optimism (Greenhalgh and Rosenblatt, 1984).

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly altered the landscape of career aspirations among adolescents, leading to both declines and, in some cases, unexpected improvements in their plans. Hussong et al. (2021) and later Carey et al. (2023) conducted literature reviews drawing from peer-reviewed articles, policy reports, and qualitative and quantitative studies published between 2020 and 2023 (Carey et al., 2023; Hussong et al., 2021). Their reviews highlight that the pandemic not only provoked learning loss and feelings of uncertainty but also led to shifts in both short- and long-term educational and career aspirations. Their findings align with prior longitudinal research, demonstrating that economic and social disruptions altered students’ decision-making processes. However, there are fewer clear conclusions regarding whether teenagers tended to lower their aspirations due to the disruptions caused by COVID-19.

Glick et al. (2025) analyzed longitudinal survey data from children and adolescents in Mexico and Nepal affected by school closures. They found that 34% of students lowered their educational goals post-pandemic, with aspirations for higher education dropping by 18 percentage points among lower-income students. Adolescents primarily adjusted their educational goals due to household economic constraints. Research by Fakkel et al. (2023) partially corroborated these findings. Although they did not find that socioeconomic status (SES) explained changes in adolescents’ future orientations, they observed that adolescents who experienced a steeper decline in parental support showed a notable decrease in their positive future orientation.

The interplay between economic strains and aspirations is further illustrated by the narratives provided by Barn et al. (2023), which highlight how urban middle-class children from India experienced an erosion of their educational aspirations due to the challenges posed by lockdowns. In Norway, von Soest et al. (2022) conducted a nationwide, repeated cross-sectional study using data from the Norwegian Ungdata surveys (2014–2021), covering 227,258 adolescents aged 13–18 across 157 municipalities. Their study found that adolescent future optimism declined during the pandemic due to concerns about career and educational opportunities during an economic downturn. The decline in career optimism does not appear to be a direct effect of the pandemic. Mann et al. (2020), who examined career preparedness using pre-pandemic data from the British Cohort Study (1970) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Programme for International Student Assessment (OECD PISA) 2018 survey, found that career uncertainty among adolescents had increased by 81% since 2000, particularly among disadvantaged youth. Their study projected that COVID-19 would further exacerbate this uncertainty. Conversely, other studies have highlighted increased educational uncertainty. Ashta et al. (2023) surveyed 666 high school students in Georgia, U. S., and found that 44% of those from low-income backgrounds (FRL-eligible) experienced a decline in confidence regarding college admissions and career opportunities.

In contrast, some studies suggest that the pandemic catalyzed shifts in career aspirations toward sectors perceived as more stable, particularly healthcare. Wang et al. (2024b) note a significant interest among youth in pursuing careers in healthcare, driven by the visibility and importance of such roles during the pandemic, emphasizing the growth of healthcare career aspirations among adolescents. This phenomenon was echoed by Hamzah et al. (2022) who explored the impact of the pandemic on self-efficacy and career aspirations during crises. The heightened awareness of public health challenges during COVID-19 prompted many adolescents to reconsider their career paths, potentially leading to an increase in aspirations in health-related fields. Henkens et al. (2022) reported that Dutch adolescents exhibited a “two-track thinking” approach, acknowledging economic and social disruptions while remaining optimistic about their personal futures. This optimism allowed them to maintain their educational ambitions despite short-term challenges. Additionally, Desrochers et al. (2020) found that Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) students in the U.S. largely retained career optimism, although they expressed concerns about the quality of online learning and the loss of hands-on training. O'Malley et al. (2021) found that young adults in Canada, despite facing financial uncertainty and online learning challenges, remained largely optimistic about their future educational and career aspirations. Qureshi et al. (2021) conducted a qualitative study providing a comparative analysis of public and private school students in Pakistan, demonstrating that socio-economic background played a crucial role in shaping career aspirations. Similarly, Cherian and Kohli (2022) examined adolescents from lower socio-economic backgrounds in Bengaluru, India, finding that respondents preferred low-skill jobs, such as shop assistants and mechanics, over careers that required more extensive education.

Not all studies specify the direction of change in career plans, although they record significant shifts in aspirations. Akbari and Faisal (2023), based on a survey of 1,036 Indonesian young people aged 16–30, found that while participants faced heightened anxiety about their future, 87% maintained their pre-pandemic career goals, albeit with a newfound interest in digital entrepreneurship and public health careers. In the UK, Yarde et al. (2022) surveyed 12,828 students and found that nearly 60% altered their career aspirations due to the pandemic, with disadvantaged students facing the most significant disruptions. Similarly, Zhang et al. (2022) conducted a large-scale survey of 21,085 Chinese high school students and found a surge in interest in medical careers, attributed to societal recognition of healthcare professionals during the pandemic. Baskar et al. (2022) surveyed 859 secondary school students in the UK and found a notable shift toward healthcare professions, particularly among female students, due to increased societal recognition and job security in the medical field. Fehkührer et al. (2023) examined how the COVID-19 pandemic shaped adolescents’ concerns and hopes for the future in a survey of 3,052 adolescents in Austria. They found that 54% expressed hope regarding their careers, while 37.7% emphasized that they wanted to be financially secure (Fehkührer et al., 2023).

This research employs a longitudinal, observational, quantitative study design utilizing data from three waves of the MERPAS survey. The longitudinal approach enables the examination of changes in adolescents’ educational and career aspirations over time by comparing results across multiple data collection points. The study is observational in nature, as it measures naturally occurring phenomena without experimental manipulation, focusing on tracking the same population of 8th-grade students (ages 13–15) in Bihor County across different time periods. The quantitative methodology involves the systematic collection and statistical analysis of numerical data, including the use of standardized occupational status measures (ISEI and SIOPS scales) as indicators of desired occupations. The temporal design is particularly significant as it captures pre-pandemic aspirations (December 2018–January 2019) and compares them with aspirations during peak COVID-19 restrictions in Romania (May–June 2021 and January–February 2022), allowing for analysis of how external societal disruptions may influence adolescent career development trajectories.

The unit of analysis in this research is individual adolescent students participating in the MERPAS surveys. The study focuses on analyzing data collected directly from student participants regarding their educational and career aspirations, with each student serving as a distinct case for analysis.

The main objective of this study is to examine the evolving landscape of career aspirations among Romanian eighth-grade students by analyzing survey data collected across three distinct time points: before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, through a longitudinal approach, as we see in Table 1.

As specific objectives, we set out to assess whether during the pandemic career uncertainty increased and career optimism (understood as foundational educational commitment) and career strategies (understood as mobility intentions) among Romanian adolescents in Bihor County were altered., to identify changes in the perception of the status of desired occupations, and to examine changes in students’ intentions to study or work abroad.

With regard to the participants used in this study, we took into account several factors that could significantly influence the educational and professional aspirations of adolescents and whose significant variation across the three cohorts could alter the comparability of results and would require weighting of the samples. These factors include the gender of the participants, their average age, the type of school they attend, and the locality where the parents of the participating adolescents live. Each factor is represented in the three MERPAS samples (see Table 2), as detailed below.

The data were collected using a stratified random sampling approach based on the type of locality and the type of educational institution. For the current longitudinal approach, we have used a pooled database, in which the three subsamples corresponding to the three waves were weighted according to gender, type of residence (rural, small urban, and Oradea/large urban), and type of school (gymnasium school, theoretical high school, technological high school, national college, and technical college) to ensure maximum similarity between waves having wave 2 as reference for the other two surveys. Understandably, the rationale in handling the samples was not representativity but similarity and ceteris paribus comparability across surveys. Wave 2 has been used as reference in a rather arbitrary way, though we considered also the fact that it was closest to the population structure considering the weighting variables. Standard errors of mean for focus variables were only marginally affected by weighting (i.e., ISEI professional aspirations; Table 3).

The MERPAS study collected data from adolescent participants across three waves: MERPAS 1 (December 2018–January 2019, n = 1,647, weighted n = 1,643), MERPAS 2 (May–June 2021, n = 928, weighted n = 922), and MERPAS 3 (January–February 2022, n = 1,220, weighted n = 1,217). The sample maintained balanced gender representation across all waves, with MERPAS 1 and 2 showing slightly higher female participation, while MERPAS 3 achieved perfect gender parity (50.0% each).

The primary data collection instrument was the MERPAS survey questionnaire, designed to gather comprehensive information on adolescents’ educational and career aspirations, dropout expectations, migration intentions, and occupational preferences. The questionnaire administration evolved across the three waves to maintain consistency and quality control:

This instrument serves as the foundation for longitudinal comparison of career aspirations and educational expectations, enabling us to assess changes in adolescent career development across the three time periods.

To measure occupational aspirations quantitatively, we employed two established occupational status measurement scales. The International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI) and the Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS) were utilized following the methodology outlined by Ganzeboom et al. (1992). The ISEI measures the socioeconomic status and prestige of desired occupations, while SIOPS provides an alternative measure of occupational prestige. Together, these instruments offer complementary assessments of occupational status aspirations, allowing for robust cross-temporal comparisons and validation of findings regarding changes in the prestige level of students’ career goals/aspirations.

Conducted in collaboration with the Bihor County School Inspectorate and the Bihor County Center for Educational Resources and Assistance, the MERPAS surveys are Omnibus research endeavors in which these three institutions engage in a close and continuous partnership throughout the entire research process. To date, three surveys have been deployed, which are used in this article, with samples of various sizes extracted from the population of 8th graders in Bihor County (see Table 1).

With regard to measuring career uncertainty through “I do not know” responses for the desired profession, this approach (proxy) is broadly applied in the research in the field, even in OECD-led surveys (Readiness and OECD, 2024) being also used by many other researchers (Santos et al., 2014; Xu and Tracey, 2015; Fabio et al., 2013; Xu, 2020), one of the best known being Osipow et al. (1976), who developed the Career Decision Scale (CDS), which includes items on uncertainty through responses such as “I do not know what career I want” or “I am confused about my career options.”

Given the sociological, cohort-level design of this study, we adapt the concept of Career Optimism from a purely psychological trait (e.g., Eva et al., 2020) to a sociological-level assessment of viable future paths based on the social context. We operationalize this concept in two distinct components:

As already stated, occupational aspirations were measured through the ISEI (International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status) and SIOPS (Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale) measures of the profession desired at 30.

The International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI) and the Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS) are both standardized, internationally comparable sociological metrics for assessing occupational status, developed by the same core researchers (Ganzeboom et al., 1992). However, they differ fundamentally in the specific dimension of status they measure and the methodology used to derive their scores. The primary difference between them lies in the criteria used to score the occupations. However, the two indices are very highly correlated. The scales were notably renewed by their creators in 1996 for compatibility with the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-88).

Two coders independently coded the open-ended occupational aspiration responses into ISCO categories. Inter-coder reliability was assessed separately for each dataset. Agreement between coders was consistently high, ranging from 92.86 to 97.10%. When weighted by the number of cases in each dataset, the overall agreement reached 95.93%, indicating a very high level of consistency in the coding process (see Table 4).

The analysis of inter-coder agreement across the datasets indicates a consistently high level of concordance between the two independent coders. Both the simple and weighted means exceed 94%, demonstrating robust reliability of the coding process and suggesting that the categorization of items is highly consistent across cases, with larger datasets appropriately influencing the weighted estimates.

Disagreements were resolved through discussion to reach consensus, and the final consensus codes were used for analysis.

The variables used in this study, along with their descriptions and measurements, are presented in Table 5. These include (1) the proxies for career optimism: the prospect of dropout which measures expectations of leaving education before obtaining a degree; the prospect of educational migration and work migration, assessing the likelihood of studying or working abroad; (2) occupational career uncertainty, measured by non-responses or ‘Do not know’ answers regarding the desired profession; and (3) occupational career aspirations, classified by major International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) groups, level of qualification, and specific medical professions. Finally, the status of the occupation aspired is measured using occupational prestige scales (ISEI, SIOPS).

Based on the measurement of the dependent variables, we propose the following operational hypotheses regarding changes from MERPAS 1 to MERPAS 2 and/or 3:

The data were collected using a stratified random sampling approach based on the type of locality and the type of educational institution. For the current longitudinal approach, we have used a pooled database, in which the three subsamples corresponding to the three waves were weighted according to gender, type of residence (rural, small urban, and Oradea/large urban), and type of school (gymnasium school, theoretical high school, technological high school, national college, and technical college) to ensure maximum similarity between waves having wave 2 as reference for the other two surveys. Understandably, the rationale in handling the samples was not representativity but similarity and ceteris paribus comparability across surveys.

All data analyses and hypothesis testing were performed using SPSS (Version 25), with the statistical techniques applied to each hypothesis summarized in Table 6.

Ethical approval was obtained from the Doctoral School of Sociology (University of Oradea), the Bihor County School Inspectorate, and the Bihor County Center for Educational Resources and Assistance (no approval number issued); no additional permissions were required. Informed consent was obtained at the time of questionnaire completion, with participants contacted in Bihor County schools to complete the questionnaires online or on paper under supervision.

Nearly half of the interviewed students considered working abroad, while a third contemplated studying abroad. However, approximately 5% of the pooled sample indicated they were likely to drop out of school before obtaining a degree.

Furthermore, over a third of the pooled sample did not provide a valid answer when asked about their desired profession, indicating career uncertainty.

Additionally, more than a third of the 8th graders expressed a desire to work in occupations that require a higher education degree. Among this group, 36.5% aimed for medical professions, with nearly one quarter (8.5%) specifically targeting healthcare roles.

In terms of occupational status, the desired occupation had an average ISEI value of 61.3 and an average SIOPS of 52.5, corresponding to mid-level managers or administrators, experienced secondary-level teachers, technical specialists or associate professionals, and certain health professionals such as registered nurses (Ganzeboom et al., 1992).

The operational hypotheses of our research test the prediction that, following the economic and social disturbances corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemic, all indicators of career aspirations have declined from the pre-COVID-19 survey (MERPAS 1) in the subsequent two surveys (MERPAS 2–2020, MERPAS 3–2022). These hypotheses are being tested in the following bivariate analyses.

Contrary to expectations, the rate of missing values (Do not know and No answer) did not increase during the pandemic, remaining relatively constant from 39.32% in MERPAS 1 to 39.05% in MERPAS 2 (see Table 8). Moreover, in the last survey, conducted between January and February 2022, the percentage of valid answers increased by 8% (from about 61% in MERPAS 1 and MERPAS 2 to 69% in MERPAS 3). These results do not support our hypothesis; therefore, the hypothesis is rejected (H1.1).

The percentage of students considering dropping out of school before obtaining a degree does not change significantly across the surveys according to both items tested, as shown in Tables 9, 10. Specifically, the percentage of students who view dropping out of school before obtaining a diploma as unlikely or very unlikely remains high, at 94.6% in MERPAS 1, increasing slightly (but statistically insignificantly) to 95.2% in MERPAS 2 and 95.3% in MERPAS 3.

When asked a different question, we have got similar answers: students who consider dropping out (to a probable or very probable extent) are at 5.4% in MERPAS 1, which decreases (statistically insignificantly) to 4.8% in MERPAS 2 and 4.7% in MERPAS 3 (see Table 10). Therefore, our results do not support the hypothesis that the percentage of students expecting to drop out before obtaining a degree will increase (H2.1)—hypothesis rejected.

The data reveals a significant decline in the proportion of students considering working abroad during the pandemic (see Table 11). Before the pandemic (MERPAS 1), the majority (56.6%) expressed a likelihood of seeking employment abroad. However, this figure dropped sharply in MERPAS 2 (38.5%) and remained low in MERPAS 3 (40.8%). The chi-square test confirms that these shifts are statistically significant (p < 0.01), supporting the interpretation that students’ willingness to pursue work opportunities abroad was reduced during the pandemic. Thus, our hypothesis that the pandemic increased the percentage expecting to work abroad is rejected: Hypothesis rejected (H2.2).

Consistent with the observed decline in students’ willingness to work abroad, a similar trend is evident in the proportion of students contemplating studying abroad. The data indicates a significant decrease in the proportion of students considering studying abroad during the pandemic (see Table 12). In the pre-pandemic period (MERPAS 1), 39.1% of students viewed studying abroad as a likely or very likely option. However, this percentage dropped sharply in MERPAS 2 (27.0%) and remained low in MERPAS 3 (28.0%). The chi-square test (p < 0.01) confirms that these changes are statistically significant.

Despite the global emphasis on remote learning and increased accessibility to international education opportunities, these results suggest that students’ concerns about studying abroad may have been heightened during the pandemic. Travel restrictions, financial uncertainties, and general instability could have contributed to this shift. However, since the decline is not as steep as in the case of working abroad, long-term aspirations for international education may remain intact, even if short-term feasibility concerns have influenced students’ immediate expectations.

Given these findings, the initial hypothesis predicting a strong decrease in study-abroad intentions is confirmed: Hypothesis confirmed (H2.3).

Aligned with some of the theoretical expectations, the status of the desired occupation significantly increased during the pandemic. MERPAS 2 shows the highest scores in both measures, and the ANOVA results indicate significant differences between the groups (p < 0.01) (see Table 13; Figure 1). These findings suggest that there are meaningful variations in occupational preferences or expectations among the groups, implying that professional aspirations differ significantly across the groups: Hypothesis rejected (H3.1).

The distributions of professional aspirations remain remarkably stable across the three surveys, with little significant change, summarized as a small increase in tertiary-educated professions in MERPAS 2 (during the pandemic) and a decline in options for professions requiring secondary-level education. This is more evident in Table 14. Therefore, during the pandemic, occupational aspirations did not decline; on the contrary, they seem to have increased and become clearer. Hypothesis rejected (H3.2).

In MERPAS 1, 33.4% preferred higher education, 27.3% sought secondary education, 0.1% wanted jobs with no qualifications, and 39.3% were unsure or did not respond. In MERPAS 2, 37.9% preferred higher education, 23% preferred secondary education, 0.2% were interested in unqualified jobs, and 38.9% did not answer. In MERPAS 3, 39.3% wanted higher education, 29.7% sought secondary education, 0% preferred unqualified jobs, and 31.1% were unsure. The Chi-square test result (p < 0.01) indicates statistically significant differences in preferences among the groups, as shown in Table 15.

Regarding aspirations for medical professions, the results show a slight increase in the percentage of students aspiring to the category of these professions requiring higher education across the three survey waves, from 7.6% (MERPAS 1) to 9.2% (MERPAS 3), as shown in Table 16. In contrast, the percentage of respondents considering other healthcare professions remained very low, with values of 0.8, 0.2, and 0.4%. Additionally, a significant portion of respondents, ranging from 31.1–39.3%, reported uncertainty or preferred not to answer. The Chi-square test result (p < 0.01) indicates that these differences are statistically significant. Despite the increase in interest in medical professions, the rise is much smaller than the broader trend observed for other professions during the pandemic, as well as the overall increase in career certainty: Hypothesis rejected (H4).

Contrary to initial expectations and numerous international studies, this research found an improvement in students’ clarity regarding their career goals during the pandemic. Specifically, the rate of missing values for desired professions—measure proxy utilized for uncertainty—did not increase; rather, it remained relatively constant between MERPAS 1 (pre-pandemic) and MERPAS 2 (during height of restrictions), and then significantly decreased from 39.32 to 30.98% in MERPAS 3 (just before restrictions ended), as seen in Table 8. This suggests a higher proportion of students were able to provide valid responses about their desired professions as the pandemic progressed.

This finding directly contradicts evidence from several international studies, which suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to increased career uncertainty among adolescents. For instance, Mann et al. (2020) projected that the pandemic would exacerbate existing career uncertainty. Similarly, Carey et al. (2023) highlighted that the pandemic provoked feelings of uncertainty and altered adolescents’ short- and long-term plans. The Romanian context appears to have fostered greater clarity, standing apart from these broader trends.

Regarding career optimism, measured by the intention to drop out of school, our study found that the percentage of students considering dropping out before obtaining a degree did not change significantly across the three survey waves, consistently remaining low (around 5%), as we can see in Tables 9, 10. This indicates a rejection of the hypothesis that the pandemic would increase the likelihood of students dropping out before acquiring a diploma.

This stability in dropout intentions contrasts with international findings that reported declining future optimism among adolescents due to concerns about career and educational opportunities during economic downturns (von Soest et al., 2022). The resilience observed in Romanian adolescents’ foundational optimism is theorized to be linked to several factors:

Regarding the data indicating a sharp decrease in the proportion of students considering going abroad (for work or studies) we interpret it not as a decline in optimism, but as a clear demonstration of career adaptability. As ‘career shock’ theory (Akkermans et al., 2020) suggests, these adolescents were rationally re-evaluating their career strategies in response to new, acute structural barriers. This trend can be understood as the result of a confluence of psychosocial and structural factors. On a psychosocial level, the global health crisis likely amplified the desire for proximity to family and social support networks, making the prospect of being isolated abroad during a period of high health risk less appealing (Dascalu, 2020; Stănculescu and Marin, 2022). However, this shift in preferences was reinforced by a set of structural barriers: widespread restrictions on international travel (Mantu, 2020) and institutional ambiguity regarding the operational status of universities or foreign employers. Therefore, the observed decline in migration intentions reflects not just a change in aspirations, but a pragmatic response to a global environment where the logistical, financial, and health-related costs of mobility had dramatically increased. These findings suggest that, for the cohorts surveyed in our study, the pandemic period was associated with a notable reduction in career uncertainty and a strengthening of domestic career path commitment. While our trend design does not permit causal claims, the data indicate a shift towards greater clarity and higher-status aspirations occurring concurrently with the pandemic’s profound social and educational disruptions.

This interpretation diverges from some studies, such as Swanson and Duncan (2021), who found that COVID-19 safety issues alone did not diminish interest in study abroad, but rather a broader consideration of risk, financial concerns, and classification, which are impacting future study abroad interest.

The unexpected increase in aspirations regarding occupational status (ISEI and SIOPS) during the pandemic warrants discussion. The distributions of professional aspirations by required level of qualification remained remarkably stable or even slightly increased for professions demanding higher education, while options for secondary-level education declined (Table 15). Both of these findings led to the rejection of the hypotheses that occupational aspirations would decline.

These findings contradict international studies that observed a lowering of educational goals post-pandemic, especially among lower-income students, due to household economic constraints (Barn et al., 2023; Glick et al., 2025). The observed increase in aspirations for higher-status and higher-qualified professions in Romania is interpreted as a heightened awareness of the importance of higher qualifications or “safe” professions (Baskar et al., 2022; Guszkowska and Dąbrowska-Zimakowska, 2023; Zhang et al., 2022). This aligns with human capital theory (Becker, 1964; Becker, 2009; OCDE, 1998), which suggests that during crises, career aspirations may increase due to the lowering of opportunity costs of education (fewer job opportunities) and increased perceived health risks associated with low- and medium-qualification occupations. This makes safer and better-paid positions (often requiring higher education) more attractive, acting as an investment during uncertain times.

Contrary to the hypothesis, there was even a small increase in the preference for professions requiring tertiary education during MERPAS 2 (at the height of the pandemic) and MERPAS 3 (later in the pandemic), while options for professions requiring secondary education declined. Specifically, the percentage of students preferring professions with higher education increased from 33.4% in MERPAS 1 (pre-pandemic) to 37.9% in MERPAS 2 and 39.3% in MERPAS 3. These differences were statistically significant (p < 0.01), indicating that occupational aspirations for higher education did not decline; instead, they appeared to have increased and become clearer.

This trend aligns with human capital theory (Becker, 1964; Becker, 2009), which supports an increase or stability in occupational aspirations for higher education due to economic resilience and the perceived value of high qualifications. However, international research indicates a decline in optimism and educational goals caused by economic constraints and pandemic uncertainty (Carey et al., 2023; Hussong et al., 2021).

At the same time, the shift to online pedagogy, despite presenting many challenges, has also created new opportunities for tertiary education systems in developing countries. For example, online education has enhanced flexibility for both teachers (in planning and organizing lessons) and for students to learn at their own pace, which can make tertiary education more accessible, inclusive, and resilient (Islam, 2021).

While some international researchers observed students’ orientation toward medical professions (Baskar et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2022), the MERPAS data show only a modest increase in the percentage of students aspiring to medical professions requiring higher education. This modest rise, which was much smaller than the broader trend observed for other professions, led to the rejection of the hypothesis (H4). This rejection occurred because the observed increase (from 7.6% in MERPAS 1 to 9.2% in MERPAS 3), despite being statistically significant (p < 0.01), was much smaller than the broader trend observed for other professions and the overall increase in career certainty, as we see in Table 16.

Possible explanations include the stress displayed by the healthcare system (Savu et al., 2023; Briciu et al., 2023)—overcrowded hospitals and exhaustion were frequently reported in the Romanian media, which may have diminished the attractiveness of medical professions. Existing perceptions of medical careers, already positive (Savu et al., 2023), remained stable during the pandemic instead of increasing further. Another aspect relates to the specificity of the analyzed cohort; these are eighth-grade students, who may view a medical career as requiring intermediate stages (Roșioară et al., 2024; Muntean et al., 2022).

Our interpretation of the evolution of career aspirations among adolescents in Bihor during the pandemic—especially in contrast to trends recorded in international literature—suggests that these developments were predominantly influenced by health concerns rather than negative economic projections. This shift led to a preference for safer professions that require higher education, even if it involved abandoning studies or work abroad. Furthermore, our results support the theories of human capital theory: if the opportunity costs of higher education do not increase while the risks associated with low- and medium-qualification jobs rise, it is logical to opt for safer and better-paid positions, which explains the heightened career aspirations of our respondents.

This serves as a working hypothesis with broad applicability, assuming that the pandemic’s economic impact on the families of our study participants was minimal. Robust testing of this conjecture would necessitate comparisons on at least international cohort data that include measures of the pandemic’s economic impact, as well as population health and safety indicators (such as excess mortality).

A methodological approach to the differences between our findings and the ones found in previous research cannot be overlooked. It is essential to highlight the limitations of earlier studies and the fundamental differences in design and measurement compared to our proposed study. Many of the reviewed studies employed a cross-sectional design, which assessed changes in career aspirations or attitudes retrospectively and/or approached career aspirations from a psychological perspective, focusing on dependent variables such as career optimism, career uncertainty, or proxies of career concern, such as involvement in career counseling and guidance activities. According to theoretical models, contextual factors are crucial—such as the timing of government-imposed restrictions and the severity of the pandemic’s economic and health effects—and their impact could be more effectively tested through international comparative studies.

The findings from our study of eighth-grade students in Bihor County present a contrast to many international reports on the pandemic’s impact on youth aspirations. While Bihor County shares many demographic and educational characteristics with other regions in Romania, our results should be interpreted as a regional case study, and caution is warranted against direct generalization to the entire country without further corroborating research. This regional focus provides a valuable, context-specific lens through which to understand how local economic resilience, as noted in Romania’s relatively mild GDP contraction and Bihor County’s similar context may mediate the effects of a global crisis on adolescent career planning.

Also, it is important to interpret these findings with caution regarding causality. Our longitudinal design is a trend analysis (or repeated cross-sectional study), meaning it compares different cohorts of eighth-grade students over time, rather than tracking the same individuals (a panel design). Consequently, we cannot definitively attribute the observed shifts solely to the pandemic’s influence. These changes may also reflect underlying cohort effects, where the unique life experiences and baseline characteristics of the students surveyed in 2021 and 2022 shaped their aspirations differently from the 2019 cohort. Other unmeasured societal factors may also have played a role, therefore, the pandemic should be understood as the dominant historical context (or “career shock”) in which these changes were observed, rather than as a singular causal variable.

Our longitudinal design is a trend analysis, meaning that the three samples included in the analysis consist of different individuals, although they are similar in structure. However, it is possible that the dynamics we investigated are influenced by cohort effects rather than changes in individual attitudes, as the theory suggests. This limit has been overcome only by using panel data. The hypothesis that such a great similarity of distributions of occupational aspirations as the ones recorded in our research across three cohorts of 14-year-olds from Bihor County, Romania, would be accidentally produced by the pandemic-induced shifts in aspirations for those questioned in 2022 and 2023, who otherwise have had different aspirations, is very unlikely, though.

The theoretical and methodological limitation of this study is the conceptualization of Career Optimism. We relied on proxy measures (dropout intentions, migration intentions) rather than direct, validated psychometric instruments. While we have reframed the concept of Career Optimism sociologically, as “foundational optimism” and “career adaptation,” this approach presents certain theoretical and methodological issues. This approach does not allow for a differentiation regarding Career Optimism of the cohorts analyzed; it only allows them to establish a positive orientation regarding their career projections. Also, the observed decline in migration intentions is interpreted in our discussion as a response to health insecurity and structural travel barriers, but we cannot fully disentangle this from other factors, such as family financial security, which our study did not measure. Future research, employing panel design and validated psychological scales, would be necessary to isolate these distinct mechanisms that determine Career Optimism in adolescents.

Moreover, one could criticize the generalization of our results, which were based on the analyzes of samples drawn from the student population of Bihor County to the entire similar population of Romania. Although from any point of view the student population of Bihor is highly similar to that of Romania, if we take some indicators like dropout or results at the high-stakes National Evaluation examination, one should be cautious when applying our results to all Romanian students.

Another limitation in the comparability of our study with previous ones is that we did not directly assess the educational aspirations of our subjects, although we used the level of qualification of their desired future jobs as a proxy for educational aspirations. However, this issue is non-consequential to our conclusions, as the core of this paper tackles questions regarding occupational aspirations. Even though it is hard to imagine that educational aspirations can be disentangled from occupational desires, therefore, based on the dynamics of occupational aspirations, one could be able to deduce changes in educational aspirations.

Besides these concerns, the specification of career decision and planning focusing only on students’ opinions may limit the scope of our research, as this decision-making process is definitely more of a social sort, involving members of the family and peer group, and many complex social influence processes. However, the rational choice considerations can be applied as well to the results of this process as manifested in the answers of the teenagers, although we have to admit that the aspirations might not be entirely of the adolescent’s but results of their embeddedness into a social group.