The subjects of this study are lithium battery recycling enterprises registered within China. To start, the “Qixin Insight” platform’s batch search function was utilized to find enterprises related to lithium battery recycling and processing registered within China, using search terms such as “lithium-ion battery recycling and processing, lithium battery recycling, and waste lithium battery recycling.” The results identified 3,795 companies. Based on this, basic information on these enterprises was retrieved and supplemented from the company directory on the platform to form Table 1. It can be observed that limited liability companies dominate among China’s lithium battery recycling enterprises, with many having a registered capital of less than 10 million CNY. In terms of operational scopes, the top three industries are (1) wholesale and retail, (2) scientific research and technical services, and (3) manufacturing. It should be noted that the dataset reflects only legally registered enterprises, and no assumptions are made regarding their actual operational compliance or adherence to formal recycling standards. To further analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s lithium battery recycling enterprises, directories of enterprises were formed according to the establishment and dissolution dates, covering the periods of 2003 and before, 2004–2008, 2009–2013, 2014–2018, and 2019–2023. Based on the timing of the promulgation and implementation of China’s policies on power battery recycling and the circular economy, the study period was divided into five stages. According to the enactment and subsequent revision of the Solid Waste Pollution Prevention and Control Law,² together with the Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of the Circular Economy issued in 2005,³ the periods of 2003 and earlier and 2004–2008 were classified as the industry incubation stage. Guided by the Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan released in 2009,⁴ the period of 2009–2013 was identified as an expectation-driven growth stage, characterized by rising market anticipation of the industry. Based on the Development Plan for the Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry (2012–2020),⁵ the period of 2014–2018 was defined as a stage in which the industrial system gradually took shape. Finally, in accordance with the Interim Provisions on Traceability Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles,⁶ the period of 2019–2023 was classified as the industrial system maturation stage.

Table 1 shows that China’s lithium battery recycling industry exhibits significant structural characteristics. In terms of legal form, limited liability companies dominate (95.47%), indicating that the industry is highly market-oriented and the responsibility boundaries are clear. The distribution of registered capital further reflects the stage of industry development: over 60% of enterprises have a registered capital of less than 10 million yuan, of which 42.85% are concentrated in the range of 1 million to 10 million yuan, showing an overall “light asset” start-up mode, reflecting the scale characteristics of the early stage of industry access. The industry classification presents a “three-legged” pattern: the wholesale and retail industry (30.54%), the scientific research and technology services industry (28.77%), and the manufacturing industry (25.98%) rank in the top three. This distribution is not only a statistical phenomenon, but also reveals the potential division of responsibilities in the industry chain, corresponding to core links such as the collection and circulation of battery recycling networks, technology research and development, and solution support, as well as dismantling and resource utilization. Overall, these characteristics depict an emerging industry landscape in the growth stage, with initial differentiation of market entities, but overall processing capabilities still need to be further improved.

Figure 1 demonstrates that the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China generally displays a “stepped” pattern. Specifically, from 2003 to 2023, enterprises in the eastern region consistently held the top position in terms of numbers, increasing from 52 to 1952. However, their percentage of the nation’s total decreased from 71.23 to 52.39%. Enterprises in the central region consistently ranked second, increasing from 16 in 2003 to 1,221 in 2023, with their national percentage rising from 21.92 to 32.77%. In the western region, the number of enterprises grew from 5 in 2003 to 553 in 2023, with their proportion increasing from 6.85 to 14.84%. Overall, the quantity growth was most substantial in the eastern region, considerably outpacing that in the central and western regions. In contrast, its trend in terms of their percentage increase is opposite to that of the central and western regions, indicating an ongoing diffusion of recycling capacity from coastal to inland areas. This shift helps balance regional waste management resources while also highlighting the need for regulatory oversight and environmental infrastructure development to extend simultaneously to emerging inland areas, thereby preventing the spread of potential risks. More specifically, at the provincial level, Guangdong and Jiangsu in the eastern region, along with Hunan and Anhui in the central region, and Sichuan and Shaanxi in the western region, consistently ranked at the top in terms of the number of enterprises. From a city perspective, Shenzhen, Changsha, Xiamen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Suzhou were continually in the top 10 for the number of recycling enterprises. Between 2019 and 2023, Hefei, Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, and Xi’an entered the top 10 list. Given that these areas are hotspots for industrial activity and densely populated, it is reasonable to designate them as priority zones for environmental and health risk management. Consequently, the spatial distribution pattern of recycling enterprises not only highlights the opportunities for technological innovation to drive the industry’s prosperity but also underscores the necessity of integrating smart management and public health safeguards into the circular economy system in the future.

The results of the standard deviation ellipse (Table 2) show that the distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China generally exhibits a spatiotemporal distribution pattern oriented in a south–north direction. Starting from 21.50° before and including 2003, the orientation angle increased to 25.66° between 2019 and 2023. The axes of the ellipse have generally been growing, with the area of the ellipse expanding from 1,306,932.63 to 2,017,806.76 km². This suggests that the spatial distribution pattern of Chinese lithium battery recycling enterprises is shifting from a northeast–southwest direction and becoming more dispersed. The spatial distribution of these enterprises is also becoming more uniform: the center of the ellipse has gradually moved northward from Jiujiang to Yichun in Jiangxi, then shifted westward to Huangshi in Hubei, and finally moved to Wuhan. This indicates that the spatial layout of the lithium battery recycling enterprises is developing towards regions with higher economic development levels.

From the results obtained using Moran’s I in Table 3, it can be observed that, except for the year 2003 and earlier, the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China shows a significant positive spatial correlation. This means that provinces with a high number of lithium battery recycling enterprises are adjacent to each other, and those with fewer companies are also close to each other. From the trend of changes in Moran’s I, it can be seen that its value initially increases and then decreases, indicating that the spatial agglomeration of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China first intensifies and then diminishes. After the 2008–2012 period, the distribution of these enterprises began to gradually balance out. This shift from concentration to dispersion signifies an expansion of the geographic scope of industrial activities, necessitating the establishment of a nationwide regulatory network to ensure that development in emerging regions complies with environmental standards. Therefore, as the industry evolves, establishing a nationwide intelligent monitoring and traceability system based on emerging technologies such as IoT sensing and digital tracking is crucial. This will ensure that the spatial dispersion of recycling activities does not result in the geographical transfer of environmental and health risks.

Further analysis of the spatial distribution of hot and cold spots among Chinese lithium battery recycling enterprises in Figure 2 reveals that before and including 2003, the hot-spot provinces were mainly Hubei, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, and Hainan. Subsequently, Guangdong joined as a new hot-spot region, and the spatial distribution has remained relatively stable ever since. The sub-hot-spot provinces before and up to 2003 were Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian. After that period, aside from Guangdong becoming a hot spot, Chongqing and Henan were added as new sub-hot spots. The distribution of cold- and sub-cold-spot provinces has remained relatively stable, encompassing provinces mostly situated in the western and northeastern regions of China. These stable hotspot distribution patterns provide spatial guidance for governments to formulate nationwide public health safeguards, such as how to balance recycling activities across the country through smart-waste management and recycling technology.

Kernel density analysis using ArcGIS software reveals that the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China has been expanding gradually. However, a significant geographic polarization feature is evident, characterized by expansion from a polarization point outward, eventually forming clustered structures and a zonal spatial pattern. The density of enterprise distribution has continuously increased, from a maximum of 0.8237 units/km² in and before 2003 to a peak of 29.8991 units/km² for the period from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the polarization points have shifted from a dual-core to a single-core and then back to a dual-core configuration.

Based on the enterprise distribution density, enterprises are divided into five categories from low to high: low-density area, lower-density area, medium-density area, higher-density area, and high-density area.

As shown in Figure 3, in 2003, lithium battery recycling enterprises were mainly clustered in the eastern coastal regions of China, exhibiting a contiguous distribution trend of low density. The high-density areas were located in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions, mainly involving the provinces of Guangdong and Jiangsu, with the Pearl River Delta being the largest cluster of lithium battery recycling enterprises. From 2004 to 2018, as the lithium battery recycling industry continued to develop, the Pearl River Delta remained the area with the highest density of lithium battery recycling enterprises. The distribution between this center and the sub-center, the Yangtze River Delta, evolved from a contiguous lower-density distribution to a medium-density distribution.

Starting in 2019, two high-density enterprise clusters of lithium battery recycling enterprises formed, one in the Pearl River Delta and the other in the Yangtze River Delta, with a contiguous higher-density distribution between them. Within the Pearl River Delta cluster, the high-density area has gradually extended northward to the southern parts of Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. In the Yangtze River Delta cluster, the high-density area has shifted from mainly Jiangsu Province to Anhui Province.

Figures 1–3 show that the eastern coastal regions are the main distribution areas for China’s lithium battery recycling enterprises. Further calculations reveal that in each year, the five major city clusters of the eastern coast continue to be home to more than 50% of China’s lithium battery recycling enterprises, making these areas crucial core areas for the country’s economic and innovative development. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the spatial pattern of lithium battery recycling enterprises from the perspective of these city clusters to achieve a more profound understanding of the spatial agglomeration drivers and effects.

Based on the number of companies, these areas are classified into five categories from smallest to largest: low-value areas, sub-low-value areas, medium-value areas, sub-high-value areas, and high-value areas. As shown in Figure 4, before 2008, only Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta city cluster upgraded from a sub-low-value area to a sub-high-value area in terms of the number of lithium battery recycling enterprises, while Guangzhou became a medium-value area, and the remaining city clusters remained low-value areas. From 2009 to 2013, only Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta city cluster became a high-value area, and the medium-value areas increased to now include Yangzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, Ganzhou on the west coast of the Strait, and Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta. Cities like Xiamen, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Wuxi, Hefei, and Beijing were classified as sub-low-value areas, while the Shandong Peninsula remained a low-value area.

From 2014 to 2018, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xiamen, and Dongguan became high-value areas for the distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises, and the sub-high-value regions increased by 12 cities, including Hefei, Suzhou, and Yangzhou. From 2019 to 2023, four more cities became highly classified as high-value areas: Hefei, Shijiazhuang, Fuzhou, and Suzhou, and 10 more cities became sub-high-value areas, such as Nanjing and Xuzhou. All city clusters have a high-value area except the Shandong Peninsula. Overall, since 2013, lithium battery recycling enterprises have rapidly expanded, with significant leaps in the distribution tiers of cities within each city cluster. The development of lithium battery recycling enterprises in the eastern coastal city clusters has evolved from the Pearl River Delta northwards, showing significant spatial differentiation within each city cluster.

These coastal urban clusters feature a high concentration of enterprises, making them key areas for potential cumulative environmental pressures and management interventions. Of particular concern is the potential for heavy metal leaching into groundwater, as the cumulative effect of intensive recycling operations increases the likelihood of soil contamination and aquifer pollution (13). Since these city clusters predominantly occupy hydrologically vulnerable alluvial plains, critical sources of drinking and irrigation water, with any large-scale groundwater contamination should be regarded as priority areas for groundwater protection, where any potential pollution leakage could have far-reaching consequences. Thus, the identified agglomeration patterns delineate not only economic hotspots but also priority zones for groundwater protection, underscoring the urgent need for stringent spatial planning and environmental regulation in this emerging industry.

Multiple factors have influenced the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China. Following previous studies (26, 46–48), variables were selected across several dimensions for analysis in this paper. In the economic dimension, the total retail sales of consumer goods (X1) representing residents’ consumption level, GDP (X2) representing the level of economic development, and the total import and export trade (X3) representing the degree of regional openness were chosen. In the policy dimension, general public service expenditure (X4), representing government intervention, and the proportion of general environmental protection expenditure to GDP (X5), representing regional environmental awareness, were selected. In the innovation dimension, variables include the number of college students (X6) representing the level of human capital, the R&D expenses of large-scale industrial enterprises (X7) indicating the extent of research investment, and the number of patent applications (X8) representing innovation output. From the perspective of public health and waste management, understanding these factors is equally crucial, as economic prosperity, policy support, and innovation capacity collectively shape the spatial foundation of industrial activities, the very geographic framework within which smart management and risk mitigation measures are deployed.

These data were sourced from the China Statistical Yearbook and various provincial statistical yearbooks. The analysis was conducted at the end of different stages, specifically the years 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023. Before performing Geodetector analysis, the related data were categorized into five levels using ArcGIS.

Using the single-factor detection module of Geodetector, the analysis results (Table 4) indicate that the core influencing factors are the residents’ consumption level, economic development level, and the extent of scientific research investment, with other influencing factors considered secondary.

The influence of regional economies has been rising amidst fluctuations. The Q-values for resident consumption levels, economic development levels, and degree of openness show an upward trend, albeit with fluctuations. In particular, the degree of openness was significantly regressive in 2023. This suggests that the development of the lithium battery recycling industry has been greatly influenced by the regional residents’ consumption and economic development levels. Regions with higher economic activity and consumption levels also tend to generate larger volumes of used batteries. Concentrating recycling capacity in these areas helps reduce transportation-related emissions and potential environmental leakage, thereby improving both management efficiency and public health protection. In addition, upon reaching a certain stage, increased regional openness also began to significantly enhance the siting effect for lithium battery recycling enterprises.

The influence of regional policies has weakened amid fluctuations. The Q-values for government intervention and environmental awareness showed cyclical changes during the study period, generally displaying a downward trend. As the market potential of lithium battery recycling enterprises continues to increase, the number of enterprises also changes; hence, the impact of regional policies on the distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises shows corresponding cyclical changes. It can be seen that the influence of regional innovation is slowly rising despite fluctuations. Regional innovation levels are crucial for competitiveness; the scientific and rational recycling of lithium batteries requires strong technological support, hence the Q-values for regional innovation are at higher levels. Moreover, regions with stronger innovation capacity are more capable of developing and adopting smart recycling technologies—such as AI-assisted sorting and IoT-enabled monitoring—which enhance operational safety and reduce human exposure to hazardous materials.

Using the interaction detection module of the geographical detector to analyze the years 2019–2023 (Figure 5), all interactive factors are found to have a significant bi-factor enhancement effect on the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China. Among these factors, the strongest influence comes from the interaction between the degree of scientific research investment and the level of human capital, with a Q-value of 0.946, which is the highest level. Following this are the interactions between innovation output and human capital level, scientific research investment and degree of openness to the outside world, human capital level and consumer spending level, and human capital level and economic development level, as well as government intervention and consumer spending level, all of which have Q-values exceeding 0.9, categorized as the second highest level.

Other interactions, such as between the degree of openness to the outside world and consumer spending level, have Q-values less than 0.9 but all above 0.7, and are thus classified as the middle level. The effects produced by the interaction of these factors with other factors are greater than those produced by single factors alone, indicating that factors like consumer spending level need to be combined with other influencing factors such as economic development level to have a greater impact.

Regional innovation is a core interactive factor. The interaction between the extent of scientific research investment and the level of human capital has the strongest influence, exhibiting a dual-factor enhancement effect on the spatial distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China. This indicates that provinces with higher levels of scientific research investment and human capital are more conducive to the development of lithium battery recycling enterprises. Additionally, the interaction of levels of human capital with levels of residents’ consumption and regional economic development are ranked second and third, respectively, suggesting that the innovation dimension plays a significant role in influencing regional economic aspects. It is evident that regional innovation significantly contributes to the regional economy and plays a crucial role in the site selection distribution of lithium battery recycling enterprises.

The influence of a region’s economy and regional policies is significantly enhanced when interacting with other influencing factors. For instance, after interacting with other factors, the Q-values of secondary influencing factors such as environmental protection awareness and degree of openness to foreign markets increased from 0.3048 to 0.715–0.842 and from 0.5604 to 0.733–0.913, respectively. This indicates that environmental protection awareness and degree of openness have a relatively limited impact on the development of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China. However, when these factors are linked with other influencing factors such as research and development investment, their importance and influence significantly increase.

Overall, the spatial distribution of Chinese lithium battery recycling enterprises is jointly shaped by regional economic, policy, and innovation factors. Beyond defining industrial geography, these interactions also imply differentiated capacities for smart waste management and health-risk mitigation. Regions with stronger innovation–policy–economy synergies are more capable of deploying digital monitoring, intelligent collection, and traceability systems that reduce environmental pollution and safeguard public health.

Using relevant data from Chinese lithium battery recycling enterprises, this study employs analytic methods such as standard deviational ellipse, spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detector software to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and influencing factors of lithium battery recycling enterprises in China. The results indicate the following: