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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Public Health</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Public Health</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Public Health</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2296-2565</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/fpubh.2021.783201</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Public Health</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>General Commentary</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Response: Commentary: Statistical Modeling for the Prediction of Infectious Disease Dissemination With Special Reference to COVID-19 Spread</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name><surname>Yadav</surname> <given-names>Subhash Kumar</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001"><sup>&#x0002A;</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1038853/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name><surname>Akhter</surname> <given-names>Yusuf</given-names></name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c002"><sup>&#x0002A;</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="http://loop.frontiersin.org/people/342235/overview"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><sup>1</sup><institution>Department of Statistics, School of Physical and Decision Sciences, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University</institution>, <addr-line>Lucknow</addr-line>, <country>India</country></aff>
<aff id="aff2"><sup>2</sup><institution>Department of Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University</institution>, <addr-line>Lucknow</addr-line>, <country>India</country></aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by: Monica Catarina Botelho, Instituto Nacional de Sa&#x000FA;de Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA), Portugal</p></fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Reviewed by: Subhas Khajanchi, Presidency University, India</p></fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x0002A;Correspondence: Subhash Kumar Yadav <email>drskystats&#x00040;gmail.com</email></corresp>
<corresp id="c002">Yusuf Akhter <email>yusuf&#x00040;daad-alumni.de</email></corresp>
<fn fn-type="other" id="fn001"><p>This article was submitted to Infectious Diseases - Surveillance, Prevention and Treatment, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health</p></fn></author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<elocation-id>783201</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>25</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2021</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>30</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#x000A9; 2022 Yadav and Akhter.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Yadav and Akhter</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p></license>
</permissions>
<related-article id="RA1" related-article-type="commentary-article" journal-id="Front. Public Health" journal-id-type="nlm-ta" vol="9" page="735857" xlink:href="34722443" ext-link-type="pubmed">A Commentary on <article-title>Commentary: Statistical Modeling for the Prediction of Infectious Disease Dissemination With Special Reference to COVID-19 Spread</article-title> by Dhungana, H. N., and Ghimire, S. <italic>Front. Public Health</italic>. (2021) 9:735857. doi: <object-id>10.3389/fpubh.2021.735857</object-id></related-article>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>distribution fitting models</kwd>
<kwd>time series regression models</kwd>
<kwd>epidemiological models of disease</kwd>
<kwd>parameters</kwd>
<kwd>estimation</kwd>
<kwd>prediction</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<counts>
<fig-count count="0"/>
<table-count count="0"/>
<equation-count count="0"/>
<ref-count count="58"/>
<page-count count="4"/>
<word-count count="2997"/>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<p>With reference to the quoted commentary (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">1</xref>) above, commentators observed, &#x0201C;<bold>In sections &#x02018;SI and SIS Models&#x02019; and &#x02026;. chance or probability.&#x0201D;</bold> We would like to state that the commentators have misunderstood and misinterpreted the concept and definition of &#x003B2;. From the mentioned models, it may be seen that, &#x003B2; is the per capita per unit time infection rate. It is a disease transmission coefficient or a transmission rate as described by Kirkeby et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">2</xref>). Bailey (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">3</xref>), at page no. 20, and Bailey (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">4</xref>), at page no. 33, have defined &#x003B2; as the infection rate. Chalub and Souza (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">5</xref>) have defined that, &#x003B2; may be interpreted as a rate or as a probability among many other possible choices. Jagan et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">6</xref>) have defined &#x003B2; as the transmission rate; it is the number of infections per unit time per susceptible per infected. Further, Citron et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">7</xref>) have defined as &#x003B2; the transmission rate, published in &#x0201C;<italic>PNAS&#x0201D;</italic> and others (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">8</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>).</p>
<p>Further, we have mentioned that &#x003B2; estimates the spread rate, which shows the chance of transmission of the disease from an infectious individual to a susceptible one. Ucakan et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">17</xref>) have explicitly expressed that the transmission coefficient, &#x003B2; estimates the probability of getting the disease from an infectious individual to the susceptible and stated it as a probability that ranges from 0 to 1 (0&#x0003C; <italic>&#x003B2;</italic> &#x0003C;1). On the other hand, Brauer and Castillo-Chavez (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>) have defined &#x003B2; as the product of the probability of the transmission per contact and the per capita contact rate. In addition, Chen (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">22</xref>) has also defined &#x003B2; as the infection coefficient, the product of the average number of contacts within a given time period and the probability of infection for the contact between susceptible and infectious individuals. Thus, &#x003B2; may take a value &#x0003E;1 and, therefore, in general, it may not be considered as a probability. Furthermore, one should be very careful about the choice of &#x003B2; while defining diagrams for different epidemiological models. Moreover, Hethcote and Driessche (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">10</xref>) mentioned that the number of new cases per unit time shall be &#x003BB;<italic>SI/N</italic>, which is called the standard incidence (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">23</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">27</xref>) with &#x003BB; as a contact rate. Another common incidence is the simple mass action incidence, &#x003B2;<italic>SI</italic>, where &#x003B2; was defined as the transmission coefficient (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">4</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">9</xref>). Additionally, Okabe and Shudo (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">16</xref>) have defined that &#x003B2;<italic>SI</italic> represents the number of susceptible individuals that get infected per day. For more details, further references can be consulted (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">28</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">29</xref>).</p>
<p>In their next comment, they have wrongly pointed out <bold>&#x0201C;In section, &#x0201C;The Distribution Fitting,&#x0201D; the &#x02026;. biological interpretations.&#x0201D;</bold> In the section &#x0201C;The Distribution Fitting&#x0201D; of our review on page no. 04, we have clearly mentioned that &#x0201C;it is the growth rate of infection which determines the total number of infections which depends on the numerous factors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">30</xref>),&#x0201D; and in the context of distribution fitting, we have mentioned that the infectious disease mainly depends on two factors, namely, the number of carriers and the time of infection as reported by Datta et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">31</xref>). They have further mentioned, <bold>&#x0201C;In the section of &#x0201C;The Basic Reproduction Number&#x0201D;&#x02026;&#x02026; not the model.&#x0201D;</bold> In the section &#x0201C;The Basic Reproduction Number,&#x0201D; the commentators have wrongly stated the concept here. From the formula, it may be observed that, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> does not depend on time. Further, we have not mentioned <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> as a rate anywhere in the review article. It is solely their imaginary creation. We have mentioned in the section that, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> is measured through the effective reproductive rate, denoted by <italic>R</italic>. Thus, we have mentioned, &#x0201C;effective reproductive number&#x0201D; <italic>R</italic> as &#x0201C;effective reproductive rate&#x0201D; since it depends on time (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">32</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">38</xref>). Although for minimizing the ambiguity, the use of consistent terminology throughout the literature is required, and, therefore, we appreciate the commentators. Further, commentators have wrongly mentioned that we have stated &#x003BE; as a model in the sub-section SIRS on page no. 9, however, &#x003BE; is defined in subsection SEIRS on page no. 20. In our opinion, the sentence should be started with the word &#x0201C;In,&#x0201D; which may be a typographical error, however, we have clearly mentioned that &#x003BE; is the rate by which the recovered individuals become susceptible because of the loss of immunity, and &#x003BE; is not a model. For more details, further references can be referred to (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">15</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">39</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">40</xref>).</p>
<p>In their last comment, they have pointed out, <bold>&#x0201C;In the section, &#x0201C;Further Suggestions and Future Prospectives&#x0201D;, &#x02026;.. recommendations.&#x0201D;</bold> Hajian-Tilaki (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">41</xref>) clearly observed that in designing epidemiologic studies, sample size calculation has an important role to detect an effect and achieve the desired precision in estimates of parameters of the interest (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">41</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>). Therefore, it is a key factor that must be considered while designing the study protocol (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>). Small sample size will fail to provide a precise estimate and reliable answers to the policy makers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">46</xref>). On the other hand, a large sample size than required will cause wastage of useful resources earmarked to the study (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>). Malhorta and Indrayan (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">47</xref>) have recorded that, an adequate estimation of the correct required sample size is a must, especially in the case of such infectious diseases, for which the newly invented diagnostic tests are expensive to carry out. For any epidemiological study, the investigators must present the principles of sample size calculation to justify these numbers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">44</xref>). Further, Hajian-Tilaki (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">48</xref>) also mentioned that, unfortunately, sample size calculations are rarely reported by clinical investigators for diagnostic studies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">49</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">50</xref>). The sample size calculation may be ignored wherever required, for instance, assumptions in household epidemic models for determining the transmissibility (R<sub>0</sub>). This can sometimes be seen based on who infected whom however, it is only applicable to the infections with a long incubation period, such as AIDS and tuberculosis. Although, for the infections with a shorter incubation period, such as Influenza and COVID-19, we must meet the sample size conditions in order to estimate the growth rate. The commentators mentioned that in the section &#x0201C;Further Suggestions and Future Prospective,&#x0201D; the compulsion of sample size determination can be avoided, however, we opined that, if certain researchers have not mentioned the assumptions regarding the sample size calculation, it does not mean that there is no need of it. Many a time, the determination of sample size is ignored, where strict ethical issues are not concerned, but it will harm in some sense or another, as mentioned by the more pragmatic scholars earlier (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">46</xref>). Thus, it is highly recommended for an epidemiological study that the appropriate sample size calculation should be followed (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">41</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">48</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">51</xref>&#x02013;<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">58</xref>).</p>
<sec id="s1">
<title>Author Contributions</title>
<p>SY and YA have together prepared the response to the commentary. Both the authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="conf1">
<title>Conflict of Interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s2">
<title>Publisher&#x00027;s Note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
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