The world population is expected to reach from 8.9 to 10.6 billion by 2050, compared with 7.75 billion in 2020 (1), and an estimated 68% of those people will reside in urban areas, up from 61% in 2020 (1). The average per capita GDP at constant 2015 prices is projected to increase from US $11,33 in 2022 to US $13,747 in 2032 (2). The expected changes in demography, increases in per capita GDP, and greater urbanization will have major implications on future demand for foods and major cereals, such as wheat, maize, and rice. Households in countries in the early stages of development tend to consume a high proportion of cereals and coarse grains, which are relatively cheap sources of dietary energy (3, 4). As development progresses, with increases in income and urbanization, households tend to increase their consumption of energy-dense and more expensive foodstuffs, in place of cereals (4–7), a phenomenon described as the “nutrition transition” (5, 8–14). This paper focuses on how projected economic and demographic transitions, followed by nutrition transition, will affect future demand for wheat.

Several studies project global demand changes for major cereals and agricultural commodities, considering mainly demographic shifts. Such projections are highly relevant to target investments for addressing hunger and poverty. Predictions regarding global food demand, for example, foresee increases by 2050 that range from 70% (15) to 110% (16). Ray et al. (17) cautioned that, to meet rising demand, the average annual yield growth rates for major agricultural commodities, including wheat, should be at least 2.4% over 2005 levels. After reviewing 57 global food security projections, Van Dijk et al. (18) concluded that global food demand is expected to increase from 35 to 56% by 2050, over 2010 levels.

All the preceding are global studies, but GDP growth rate, urbanization, and demographic changes are heterogeneous across countries, and cropping and dietary intake patterns are country and region-specific. For example, in 2019, yearly per capita wheat consumption in Tunisia was nearly 198.4 kg, whereas, in Laos, it was only 1.4 kg (19). Country- and commodity-specific case studies can help to elucidate consumption directions for specific commodities, providing focused and important insights to target investments and policies.

This study examines evolving per capita consumption and aggregate demand for wheat in China and India projected to 2030 and 2050. Economic growth in those countries, measured in per capita GDP growth rate, has been among the fastest in the world, at an annua average l 8.3% for China and 4.2% for India, over 1990–2020 (1). The nominal per capita GDP of China increased from less than US $318 in 1990 to US $12,556 and, in India, from US $303 in 1990 to US $2,227 in 2020 (1). There are also important demographic changes underway in both countries. In 2021, the respective populations of China and India were 1.41 billion and 1.39 billion (1). Under the low fertility rate assumption, the total population of China is projected to be 1.44 billion in 2030 and 1.29 billion in 2050 whereas, assuming a high fertility rate China's population will be 1.49 billion in 2030 and 1.51 billion in 2050 (20). For India, low fertility rate projections foresee a population of 1.48 billion in 2030 and 1.49 billion in 2050 and, under a high fertility rate assumption, of 1.54 billion in 2030 and 1.79 billion in 2050 (20).

Urbanization has also accelerated in both countries. From a little more than one-quarter of China and India's populace living in cities in 1990 (1), by 2030, it is expected that nearly 71% of China's inhabitants and 40% of those in India will reside in urban areas (21) and, by 2050, four of every five persons in China and more than half of those in India will by city dwellers (21).

The dramatic changes in per capita GDP, population, and urbanization provide a unique opportunity to examine the effects of these factors on the future demand for wheat, a major food crop for both nations. China and India are the top wheat-producing and consuming countries in the world. In 2019, China produced 134.3 million t of wheat from 23.4 million ha, making it the world's number-one wheat producer and the third-highest in wheat area (22). That same year, India allocated 31.4 million ha of land to wheat—the world's largest area—and produced 105.6 million tons (t) of grain, the second-highest output (22). An estimated 36.5 million farms in China and 37.3 million in India grew wheat in 2020 (23), making the crop a major source of livelihood for farm households. An examination of the future of wheat demand can inform effective policies to improve the livelihoods of resource-poor wheat farmers in China and India.

This information can also help target policies to improve the food security and nutrition of the countries' inhabitants, who constitute 36% of world population of which 23% (22.5% in India and 0.5% in China) live on less than US $1.90/day (24), many of whom rely on wheat for dietary energy intake. In 1961, the yearly per capita total wheat consumption was less than 21 kg in China and 28 kg in India, which contributed to 12% of the per capita daily total calorie intake in China, and in India it was 11.8% (25). As of 2019, yearly per capita wheat consumption in China had increased to 65.8 kg, supplying 576 kcal per capita per day, and representing 17.2% of daily dietary energy, and in India to 60.4 kg, supplying 515 kcal per capita per day or 20% of daily dietary energy (19). In China and India, wheat is also a major source of protein. In 2019, the daily total protein intake per person in China was 105.1 grams, in which the contribution of wheat was 18.5 grams (17.6%) (19). In India, in the same year, the daily total protein intake per person is 64.9 grams, in which the contribution of wheat was 15.1 grams (23.2%) (19). Finally, despite being the top ranked wheat producing country, China is a net importer of wheat, and India exports sporadically. Thus, projections regarding their future wheat demand have clear significance, both with regards to internal effects and policies, as well as possible impacts on global wheat supplies and prices. In 2019, the countries jointly consumed 179 million t of wheat which was 35.4% of the total wheat (505 million t) consumed globally (19), net imports of wheat grain by China were 9.6 million t worth US $2.7 billion and India's net wheat export was 928.5 thousand t, worth US $243 million (26).

There has recently been global concern around ensuring diversified diets to nurture human health and the environment (27). Also, considering the importance of balanced diets to combat malnutrition and non-communicable disease, there is a call to increase investments in non-cereal crops, such as lentils and vegetables (5, 14). Based on those suggestions, if China and India loosen their efforts to produce more wheat and eventually started importing wheat from the global market, it can generate severe havoc on international wheat prices and food security of the wheat import-dependent developing countries.

The next section presents a brief literature review and the conceptual framework. Section 3 includes materials and methods, and Section 4 presents the major findings. Finally, Section 5 presents the conclusion and policy implications.

Since its domestication around 10,000 years ago (28, 29), wheat has been playing a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition securities in the world (30–32). In 2019, the yearly per capita wheat consumption in the world was around 66 kg, which supplied daily 538 kcal per person or 18% of total calorie intake (2,963 kcal), as well as 19.5% (16.3 grams) of the daily per capita protein (25). The adoption of improved agronomic practices and high-yielding wheat varieties have contributed significantly to increasing productivity in China, India, and worldwide (33–39). Currently, wheat is the most widely cultivated crop in the world, being grown on 219 million ha in 2020 (22). In 2020, global wheat production was worth nearly US $190 billion (40).

This study projects wheat demand in China and India during 2019–2050 and specifically focuses on 2030 and 2050. In terms of production and consumption, China and India are ranked as the first and second-largest wheat-producing countries respectively. In 2019, the global wheat production was more than 765 million t, of which 66% (505 million t) was used as food, and China and India jointly consumed 35.4% (179 million t) of the total wheat consumed globally in that year (25). Despite being the top wheat-producing countries, China is a net wheat importing country, and India exports sporadically. As the population of these countries is projected to increase by 2050, and as wheat is the second most important staple in China and India, it is imperative to examine the future demand for wheat to formulate investment strategies to ensure the food security of China and India.

There has recently been global concern around warranting varied diets to foster human health and the environment (27). Also, considering the importance of balanced diets to combat malnutrition and non-communicable disease, there is a call to increase investments in noncereal crops, such as lentils and vegetables (5, 14). Now, if China and India started reducing investment in major cereals, and if the demand for major cereals increases due to the increase in population, these countries will rely more on imports to meet their demand. However, if China and India started importing wheat in bulk from the international market, it can generate severe havoc on international wheat prices and food security of the wheat import-dependent developing countries.

Few studies have projected wheat demand in China and India. Rozelle and Huang (41) considered low- and high-income growth trends to conclude that, by 2020, yearly per capita wheat consumption in China lie between 80 and 83 kg. Applying the household model estimation procedure and employing primary data, Carter and Zhong (42) calculated a negative income elasticity for wheat and concluded that, in China, per capita consumption might decline, as later occurred it was 77 kg in 1990 and fell to 64 kg by 2018 (19).

For India, Chand (43), estimated a yearly per capita wheat consumption of 49.8 kg and an aggregate consumption of 67.5 million t in 2020–21. Mittal (44) projected that, in 2026, a yearly per capita wheat consumption of 48.9 kg and an aggregate consumption of 65.9 million t. Kumar et al. (45) forecast a 2021–22 yearly per capita wheat consumption of 47.6 kg and an aggregate consumption of 73.5 million t. Applying the QUAIDS (Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System) estimation procedure, Ganesh-Kumar et al. (46) estimated a negative (-0.13) expenditure elasticity for wheat and projected the yearly per capita wheat consumption at 49.3 kg by 2026 and an aggregate wheat consumption ranging from 63.3 to 69.4 million t, dependent on income growth rate assumptions. By 2018, India's yearly wheat consumption surpassed projections considerably, with a per capita consumption of 62 kg and an aggregate wheat consumption of 83.5 million t (19). So, demand forecasts have fallen short to date, suggesting the need to revisit this issue using innovative methods and models.

Several studies have documented wheat consumption growth for countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, because of rising per capita GDP and urbanization (4, 47, 48). In the present study, the long-term influence of the share of the urban population, domestic wheat production, GDP per capita, and wheat imports are considered to estimate future per capita wheat consumption in China and India. We applied the Vector Error Correction (VEC) estimating procedure under the time series estimation setting. Finally, employing the Box-Jenkins methods for forecasting (49), we forecasted yearly per capita wheat consumption in China and India, providing up-to-date estimates through a simple but strong econometric estimation procedure using the most recent datasets.

This study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. Data on yearly per capita wheat consumption in kg (PC_t), imports (IMP_t), and domestic production (DPR_t), yields, and the wheat area were retrieved from FAO online datasets (FAOSTAT). Data for the percentage of urban population (UR_t) and per capita GPD in current US$ (GDP_t) were collected from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) catalog.

The study's equations of interest are specified below:

Where:

Before estimating Equation (1), as parts of estimation process, the presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. However, as it is argued that the augmented Dickey-Fuller test is outdated, we also have employed, Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The results from these tests are included in the Annexure. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To handle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the “varsoc” command in Stata 17 software interface. Based on the test statistics, we have applied the VEC estimation procedure, which allow us to elucidate the long-term relationships among the yearly per capita wheat consumption and the variables of interest: the yearly per capita GDP, share of the urban population, and the domestic production of wheat and wheat import.

After estimating the VEC models, we applied the simple dynamic forecasting process, to forecast yearly per capita wheat consumption in China and India. Finally, to estimate the aggregate wheat demand in 2030 and 2050, we used the following process:

Where:

Using Equation (2), we estimated the aggregate wheat demand of China and India in 2030 and 2050 considering both changes in the per capita wheat consumption and in population.

The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found below: https://data.cimmyt.org/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:11529/10548840.

The idea gap, conceptual framework, data cleaning and analysis, literature review, and first draft were prepared by KM. GK, AF, KS, and SL-R contributed to data acquisition, revising and editing the draft, and supervising the data analysis process. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.