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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Microbiol.</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Microbiology</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Microbiol.</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">1664-302X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/fmicb.2023.1228128</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Microbiology</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Review</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>The effects of amino acid substitution of spike protein and genomic recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Fang</surname>
<given-names>Letian</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff"><sup>3</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/2360061/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Jie</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff4" ref-type="aff"><sup>4</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>Yue</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff"><sup>3</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Fan</surname>
<given-names>Junyan</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff"><sup>3</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/2242866/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Shen</surname>
<given-names>Jiaying</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff5" ref-type="aff"><sup>5</sup></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Wenbin</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff"><sup>3</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/734765/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Cao</surname>
<given-names>Guangwen</given-names>
</name>
<xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff"><sup>1</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff"><sup>2</sup></xref>
<xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff"><sup>3</sup></xref>
<xref rid="c001" ref-type="corresp"><sup>&#x002A;</sup></xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/618593/overview"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><sup>1</sup><institution>Key Laboratory of Biological Defense, Ministry of Education</institution>, <addr-line>Shanghai</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff2"><sup>2</sup><institution>Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection</institution>, <addr-line>Shanghai</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff3"><sup>3</sup><institution>Department of Epidemiology, Second Military Medical University</institution>, <addr-line>Shanghai</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff4"><sup>4</sup><institution>Department of Foreign Languages, International Exchange Center for Military Medicine, Second Military Medical University</institution>, <addr-line>Shanghai</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<aff id="aff5"><sup>5</sup><institution>School of Medicine, Tongji University</institution>, <addr-line>Shanghai</addr-line>, <country>China</country></aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by" id="fn0008"><p>Edited by: Hezhao Ji, Public Health Agency of Canada, Canada</p></fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by" id="fn0009"><p>Reviewed by: Jasdeep Singh, University of Denver, United States; Xiang Gao, Loyola University Chicago, United States</p></fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x002A;Correspondence: Guangwen Cao, <email>gcao@smmu.edu.cn</email></corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<elocation-id>1228128</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>24</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2023</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>03</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2023</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#x00A9; 2023 Fang, Xu, Zhao, Fan, Shen, Liu and Cao.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Fang, Xu, Zhao, Fan, Shen, Liu and Cao</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Over three years&#x2019; pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), multiple variants and novel subvariants have emerged successively, outcompeted earlier variants and become predominant. The sequential emergence of variants reflects the evolutionary process of mutation-selection-adaption of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Amino acid substitution/insertion/deletion in the spike protein causes altered viral antigenicity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. Early in the pandemic, D614G mutation conferred virus with advantages over previous variants and increased transmissibility, and it also laid a conservative background for subsequent substantial mutations. The role of genomic recombination in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 raised increasing concern with the occurrence of novel recombinants such as Deltacron, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.9.1, and XBB.1.16 in the late phase of pandemic. Co-circulation of different variants and co-infection in immunocompromised patients accelerate the emergence of recombinants. Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 genomic variations, particularly spike protein mutation and recombination, is essential to identify ongoing changes in the viral genome and antigenic epitopes and thus leads to the development of new vaccine strategies and interventions.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>SARS-CoV-2</kwd>
<kwd>evolution</kwd>
<kwd>Omicron</kwd>
<kwd>spike protein</kwd>
<kwd>amino acid substitution</kwd>
<kwd>recombination</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<counts>
<fig-count count="5"/>
<table-count count="0"/>
<equation-count count="0"/>
<ref-count count="248"/>
<page-count count="17"/>
<word-count count="16741"/>
</counts>
<custom-meta-wrap>
<custom-meta>
<meta-name>section-at-acceptance</meta-name>
<meta-value>Evolutionary and Genomic Microbiology</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-wrap>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec sec-type="intro" id="sec1">
<label>1.</label>
<title>Introduction</title>
<p>Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a sister clade of SARS-CoV (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref46">Coronaviridae Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses et al., 2020</xref>), has posed a global public health threat since its initial outbreak in December 2019 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref88">Hu et al., 2020</xref>). On May 5, 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. At that time, WHO reported a total of 765,222,932 cases and 6,921,614 deaths worldwide.<xref rid="fn0001" ref-type="fn"><sup>1</sup></xref> Consistent with other coronaviruses, the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded positive-sense RNA of approximately 30,000 nucleotides, with replication mediated by RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref203">Vkovski et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref112">Li et al., 2020b</xref>). The 5&#x2019;-terminus of the SARS-CoV-2 genome contains two open reading frames (ORFs), while the 3&#x2019;-terminus contains four major structural proteins coding-gene in the following order: spike protein, envelope protein, membrane protein, and nucleocapsid protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">Bai et al., 2021</xref>). Despite the presence of error-correction enzymes, which contribute to a relatively high replication fidelity compared to other RNA viruses, SARS-CoV-2 still undergoes significant mutations (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref164">Robson et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref53">Domingo et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref153">Perales, 2021</xref>). The nucleotide mutation rates of SARS-CoV-2 are estimated to be 6.677&#x2009;&#x00D7;&#x2009;10<sup>&#x2013;4</sup> and 8.066&#x2009;&#x00D7;&#x2009;10<sup>&#x2013;4</sup> substitutions per year for the whole genome and spike protein, respectively (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref213">Wang S. et al., 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>Amino acid mutations in the spike protein play a crucial role in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The spike protein, which forms a trimeric fusion protein on the surface of the coronavirus, exhibits a crown-like appearance and serves as an ideal target for inducing neutralizing antibodies and protective immunity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref96">Kang et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref191">Tian et al., 2021</xref>). The spike protein is composed of S1 and S2 subunits, and the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) in the spike interacts with the human receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor when activated to allow the virus to entry into cells (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref45">Conceicao et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref82">Hoffmann et al., 2020b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref240">Zhang et al., 2021a</xref>). Mutations in the spike protein, particularly in the RBD, have led to alterations in spike-ACE2 recognition, resulting in viral immune escape and the failure of neutralizing antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref126">Magazine et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref40">Chen et al., 2023</xref>). Spike proteins are classified as open and closed forms according to the up and down conformations of the RBD, and mutations in the spike may change the RBD conformation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref205">Walls et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref225">Wrapp et al., 2020</xref>). The D614G mutation, which represents the substitution of amino acid D (Asp) by G (Gly), is conservative across all major variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref216">Wassenaar et al., 2022</xref>) and predominant in the spike protein during the early stage of pandemic (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref37">Chang et al., 2020</xref>). The D614G mutation has been shown to enhance furin proteolysis capacity by 50 times (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref69">Gobeil et al., 2021</xref>). Notably, the Omicron variant harbors more than 60 substitutions, deletions, and insertions, of which 15 rare mutations are found in the spike (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref79">He et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref125">Ma et al., 2022b</xref>). The spike protein of Omicron predominantly adopts closed conformations (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">Calvaresi et al., 2023</xref>), potentially leading to the failure of nearly all anti-spike monoclonal antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref61">Focosi and Casadevall, 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref196">Turelli et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>In addition to point mutations in the spike protein, viral genomic recombination is common among coronaviruses (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref235">Yewdell, 2021</xref>), especially during the late pandemic phase when different variants co-circulate. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the most prevalent circulating strains in the US as of May 13, 2023, were XBB.1.5 (61.5%), XBB.1.9.1 (10.0%), and XBB.1.16 (9.4%) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref124">Ma et al., 2023</xref>). The frequent occurrence of recombination makes it challenging to predict the effectiveness of vaccines targeting the spike protein, and recombination may confer altered transmissibility, virulence, and immune escape properties to the virus (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref62">Focosi and Maggi, 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">Carabelli et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<p>The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 within the population follows the mutation-selection-adaptation theory of Darwinian evolution (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref70">Goldman, 2021</xref>; <xref rid="fig1" ref-type="fig">Figure 1</xref>). In this context of hypermutation, both innate and adaptive host immune responses drive mutation selection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref190">Thorne et al., 2021</xref>), as we have previously discussed (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref177">Shen et al., 2023</xref>). The virus evolves to adapt to external selection pressures, and antigenic drift occurs as mutations gradually accumulate, affecting the virus&#x2019;s immunogenicity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">Bano et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref176">Shapira et al., 2023</xref>). Antigenic drift facilitates viral evasion from host immune response, particularly by affecting antibody neutralization, resulting in viral resistance to previous infection and vaccination (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref244">Zhang et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Cao et al., 2022c</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref155">Planas et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref157">Qu et al., 2023</xref>). The evolutionary trend tends to lower the pathogenicity but increase the transmissibility of variants, resulting in long-term retention of virus in human hosts (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref127">Magiorkinis, 2023</xref>). In this review, we provide an overview of SARS-CoV-2, summarize the characteristic amino acid mutations in the spike protein, particularly in novel variants, discuss recent recombination events, and propose future perspectives to guide viral evolution and intervention strategies.</p>
<fig position="float" id="fig1">
<label>Figure 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Process of mutation-selection-adaptation in SARS-CoV-2 evolution.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fmicb-14-1228128-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2">
<label>2.</label>
<title>An overview of SARS-CoV-2</title>
<sec id="sec3">
<label>2.1.</label>
<title>Nomenclature and timeline of SARS-CoV-2</title>
<p>Several nomenclatures have been introduced for SARS-CoV-2 according to genetic relatedness of the sequences, including GISAID,<xref rid="fn0002" ref-type="fn"><sup>2</sup></xref> Year-Letter (NextStrain) nomenclature,<xref rid="fn0003" ref-type="fn"><sup>3</sup></xref> and Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak LINeages (Pango lineage) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref162">Rambaut et al., 2020</xref>). The GISAID nomenclature system is based on marker mutations within the eight high-level phylogenetic groups, from the early split of S and L, to the further evolution of L into V and G, and later G into GH, GR and GV, and more recently GR into GRY. The Year-Letter nomenclature consists of the year when the clade emerged and a capital letter starting with A for each year, including 19A, 19B, 20A, 20B, 20C, and 20I. The Pango lineage uses an alphabetical prefix and a numerical suffix to identify descendants<xref rid="fn0004" ref-type="fn"><sup>4</sup></xref> and contains phylogenetic, genetic, and epidemiological information. The first letter represents the lineage label of the variant, with the order from A to Z, then AA to AZ, BA to BZ, etc. The subsequent numbers separated by periods indicate the branches of lineages. When a branch has three more numeric suffixes, a new letter will be used as the lineage label in alphabetical order. For example, C.1 is the branch of B.1.1.1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref145">O&#x2019;Toole et al., 2022</xref>). The recombinant variants are named in a uniform nomenclature beginning with &#x201C;X.&#x201D;</p>
<p>To promote surveillance and research, WHO categorized SARS-CoV-2 variants as three specific classes: variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), and variants under monitoring (VUMs).<xref rid="fn0005" ref-type="fn"><sup>5</sup></xref> VOCs are variants of high mutation and transmission rate. To date, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron are known emerged VOCs and have become dominant in turn globally or regionally. The Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was discovered in the UK in September 2020 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref54">du Plessis et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref65">Galloway et al., 2021</xref>). It was proven to be highly transmissible and infectious, and became prevalent a few months later (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref52">Davies et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref204">Volz et al., 2021</xref>). The Beta variant (B.1.351) was first reported in South Africa in October 2020 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref189">Tegally et al., 2021</xref>), and the Gamma variant (P.1) was first identified in travelers from Brazil in January 2021 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref64">Fujino et al., 2021</xref>). The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was isolated in India (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref138">Mlcochova et al., 2021</xref>) and quickly became the most prevalent variant worldwide in June 2021 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref128">Mahase, 2021</xref>). The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529/BA sublineages) was first discovered in Botswana, South Africa in November 2021, and outcompeted other VOCs rapidly upon its emergence (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref79">He et al., 2021</xref>). Five major sublineages of Omicron, BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, and BA.5, have been identified so far (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref188">Tegally et al., 2022</xref>). Most recently, a series of novel Omicron subvariants have emerged, such as BA.2.75 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref168">Saito et al., 2022</xref>), BF.7 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref173">Scarpa et al., 2023a</xref>), Deltacron (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref104">Kreier, 2022</xref>), XE (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref161">Rahimi and Bezmin Abadi, 2022b</xref>), XF (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Chakraborty et al., 2022</xref>), BQ.1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref208">Wang et al., 2022b</xref>), BQ.1.1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref208">Wang et al., 2022b</xref>), XBB (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref92">Imai et al., 2023</xref>), XBB.1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">Arora et al., 2023</xref>), XBB.1.5 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>), XBB.1.16 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref78">Harris, 2023</xref>), and they have raised increasing concern. The timeline of emergence of variants is illustrated in <xref rid="fig2" ref-type="fig">Figure 2A</xref>.</p>
<fig position="float" id="fig2">
<label>Figure 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Timeline, structure, and entry pathways of SARS-CoV-2. <bold>(A)</bold> The chronological order of the emergence of major SARS-CoV-2 variants. <bold>(B)</bold> There are two pathways for SARS-CoV-2 entering cells: endosome pathway and membrane pathway. ACE2, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2; TMPRSS2, transmembrane protease serine protease 2; S1, subunit 1 of the spike protein; FP, fusion peptide, responsible for membrane fusion; S1/S2, furin cleavage site between S1 and S2 subunit of the spike protein; S2&#x2019;, another proteolytic site in the subunit 2 of the spike protein.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fmicb-14-1228128-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="sec4">
<label>2.2.</label>
<title>Entry pathways of SARS-CoV-2 and hypotheses for VOCs</title>
<p>Two described entry pathways of SARS-COV-2 through the cell membrane or through endosomes (<xref rid="fig2" ref-type="fig">Figure 2B</xref>) have been reviewed in detail previously (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref175">Shang et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref82">Hoffmann et al., 2020b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref159">Rahbar Saadat et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref94">Jackson et al., 2021b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref114">Lim, 2023</xref>). The two entry pathways differ because S2&#x2019; cleavage occurs either at plasma membrane by the transmembrane protease serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) [such as in the nasal epithelial cells, lungs, and bronchial branches where TMPRSS2 is highly co-expressed with ACE2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref122">Lukassen et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref183">Sungnak et al., 2020</xref>)] or within the cell by endolyosomal cathepsins such as Cathepsin L (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Bestle et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref175">Shang et al., 2020</xref>). The proteolytic site between the S1 and S2 subunit of the spike protein, also known as furin cleavage site (FCS), is cleaved by a host protease furin (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref110">Lavie et al., 2022</xref>). This process of cleavage is essential to the entry pathway and membrane fusion (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Bestle et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref85">Hossain et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref95">Johnson et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref151">Peacock et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref110">Lavie et al., 2022</xref>). Optimization of FCS has been shown to facilitate cell&#x2013;cell fusion to improve the infectivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref81">Hoffmann et al., 2020a</xref>), increase the transmissibility (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref151">Peacock et al., 2021</xref>), and promote pathogenesis (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref95">Johnson et al., 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origin of VOCs (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref131">Mallapaty, 2022</xref>), such as (1) circulation in geographically sequencing limited areas; (2) circulation within animal hosts then spillover to humans; and (3) evolution in immunosuppressed chronic infection hosts. In some regions, the limited capacity for genomic sequencing has resulted in a lack of testing for asymptomatic patients. It has been observed that asymptomatic carriers exhibit higher levels of antiviral immunity and lower levels of inflammation compared to symptomatic individuals (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref231">Yang et al., 2020b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref111">Le Bert et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref123">Ma et al., 2022a</xref>). This immunological profile may create an environment conducive to viral evolution under immune pressure. There is evidence supporting the hypothesis of an animal host origin, with white-tailed deer (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref75">Hale et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref133">Marques et al., 2022</xref>) and farmed mink (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref102">Koopmans, 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref120">Lu et al., 2021</xref>) identified as stable animal reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2. These variants have the potential to infect animals and accumulate mutations within animal reservoirs. Subsequently, the virus may undergo further evolution, giving rise to new subvariants that can then spillover to humans. The hypothesis of chronic infection in immunodeficient hosts is widely accepted in many scenarios. Chronic infection in such individuals is associated with ACE2 affinity, immune evasion, and optimization of viral packaging (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref42">Choi et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref99">Kemp et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref77">Harari et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref222">Wilkinson et al., 2022</xref>). This process drives the mutation profiles of the virus and enhances its fitness (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref68">Ghafari et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref80">Hill et al., 2022</xref>). Extensive immune escape has been observed in SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunocompromised hosts, such as patients with advanced HIV disease (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref32">Cele et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec5">
<label>3.</label>
<title>Spike protein mutations produce antigenic drift</title>
<p>Mutation profiles of the variants of concern (VOCs) exhibit certain overlapping patterns, while also assuming distinct roles in the process of viral evolution, thereby suggesting an underlying evolutionary resemblance among these variants. Notably, a common early substitution mutation, namely D614G, is shared by all five VOCs, which has been shown to significantly augment the binding affinity of the viral spike protein to the ACE2 receptor, consequently amplifying viral pathogenicity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">Alkhatib et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref212">Wang P. et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref242">Zhang et al., 2021b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref201">Venkatakrishnan et al., 2022</xref>). Moreover, the substitution P681H has been identified in Alpha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref121">Lubinski et al., 2022</xref>), Gamma (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref64">Fujino et al., 2021</xref>), and Omicron (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref192">Tian et al., 2022</xref>), and has been demonstrated to enhance viral cell entry. Conversely, the substitution P681R, occurring at the same position, has been observed to augment the replication capacity and pathogenicity of the Delta variant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref138">Mlcochova et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref167">Saito et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref117">Liu et al., 2022</xref>). These mutations accumulate in a stepwise manner, progressively modifying the antigenic epitope of the virus, ultimately leading to a transition from &#x201C;genetic drift&#x201D; to antigenic drift.</p>
<sec id="sec6">
<label>3.1.</label>
<title>Spike mutations in current VOCs</title>
<p>For variant Alpha (B.1.1.7), of eight mutations in the spike protein, D614G, Del H69/V70 (Del H69/V70 represents amino acid deletion mutation in the site 69 and 70 of the spike protein), N501Y, and P681H are most meaningful (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref212">Wang P. et al., 2021</xref>). The D614G mutation has been found to confer a fitness advantage by promoting efficient replication in primary airway cells, thereby increasing virulence and transmission (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref87">Hou et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref103">Korber et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref147">Ozono et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref247">Zhou et al., 2021</xref>). It also leads to alterations in spike conformation and enhanced FCS cleavage (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref241">Zhang et al., 2020</xref>) and leads to alterations in spike conformation and enhanced FCS cleavage (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref69">Gobeil et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref144">Nguyen et al., 2021</xref>). However, it has also been observed that the D614G mutation renders the virus more susceptible to monoclonal antibodies by increasing epitope exposure, suggesting that it does not impede the effectiveness of vaccines (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref219">Weissman et al., 2020</xref>), indicating it does not impede vaccine effect (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref87">Hou et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref219">Weissman et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref238">Yurkovetskiy et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref147">Ozono et al., 2021</xref>). Del H69/V70 is associated with diagnostic test failure for probes targeting spike proteins, known as spike gene targeting failure (SGTF) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">Bal et al., 2021</xref>). SGTF has been utilized as a reliable proxy for monitoring the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">Bal et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">Borges et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref100">Kidd et al., 2021</xref>). N501Y has been shown to enhance the binding of the spike protein to human ACE2 receptors, potentially expanding the host range of SARS-CoV-2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref182">Starr et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9001">Chan et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref239">Zahradn&#x00ED;k et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref209">Wang et al., 2022c</xref>). P681H, which is located adjacent to the FCS, has been found to enhance the efficiency of FCS cleavage during virus entry into cells and contributes to Alpha&#x2019;s resistance to type I interferons (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref121">Lubinski et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref116">Lista et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>For Beta variant (B.1.351), the combination of E484K and N501Y mutations has a synergistic effect in enhancing the affinity of the spike protein for human ACE2 receptors (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref182">Starr et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref239">Zahradn&#x00ED;k et al., 2021</xref>). Mutations Del 242&#x2013;244, K417N, E484K, and N501Y have been shown to confer significant resistance to infection or vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref67">Garcia-Beltran et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref89">Hu et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref187">Tao et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref221">Wibmer et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref212">Wang P. et al., 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>The Gamma variant (P.1) carries 12 mutations in the spike protein, including K417T, N501Y, and E484K (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref60">Faria et al., 2021</xref>). These three mutations collectively enhance the affinity of the spike protein for ACE2 receptors, thereby increasing the transmissibility of the Gamma variant. E484K is also associated with reduced neutralization by antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref60">Faria et al., 2021</xref>). E484K is also associated with reduced neutralization by antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref31">Cele et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref73">Greaney et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref221">Wibmer et al., 2021</xref>).</p>
<p>The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) harbors several mutations previously reported in other VOCs, including L452R, T478K, E484Q, D614G, and P681R in the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref117">Liu et al., 2022</xref>). These mutations partly explain the rapid global spread of the Delta variant upon its emergence. The L452R mutation has been found to increase infectivity, modestly reduce susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies, and enhance viral fusogenicity, thereby promoting virus replication (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref141">Motozono et al., 2021</xref>). E484Q exhibits similar reduced sensitivity to vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies as L452R, but lacks synergistic effects when taken together (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref141">Motozono et al., 2021</xref>). Similar to P681H in Alpha, P681R in Delta increases FCS cleavage, resulting in enhanced transmissibility (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref138">Mlcochova et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref167">Saito et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref221">Wibmer et al., 2021</xref>). Studies have revealed that spike of Delta is more stable and binds with higher affinity to ACE2 than the spike of the wild-type (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref71">Gomari et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
<p>As discussed above, the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 of pre-Omicron variants has primarily centered around recurrent mutations in key residues of the spike protein, including D614, N501, P681, K417, and E484. However, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and its sublineages, the landscape has undergone a significant shift. The Omicron variant harbors over 30 spike mutations, with 15 of them occurring in the RBD (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref105">Kumar et al., 2021</xref>). <xref rid="fig3" ref-type="fig">Figure 3</xref> illustrates the mutation profiles of VOCs. In general, Omicron exhibits several distinctive characteristics compared to previous VOCs, including enhanced transmissibility, reduced antibody neutralization capacity (resulting in lower vaccine effectiveness), altered tissue tropism, relatively lower pathogenicity, and an increased likelihood of reinfection.</p>
<fig position="float" id="fig3">
<label>Figure 3</label>
<caption>
<p>Illustration of RBD conformation of spike protein complexed with ACE2 receptors. There are two RBD conformations: &#x201C;up&#x201D; and &#x201C;down,&#x201D; and when the RBD is in &#x201C;up&#x201D; conformation, the spike protein is open to the ACE2 receptor. The trimeric spike protein is indicated by chain in three colors, purple, green, and blue, and three ACE2 receptors are indicated in yellow, gray, and pink. The complexes are obtained from <ext-link xlink:href="http://RCSB.org" ext-link-type="uri">RCSB.org</ext-link> (7KNE, 7KNH, 7KNI for 1 &#x201C;up,&#x201D; 2 &#x201C;up,&#x201D; 3 &#x201C;up,&#x201D; respectively).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fmicb-14-1228128-g003.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>The higher transmissibility may attribute to the altered viral affinity to ACE2 receptor. Multiple experimental observations have demonstrated that the binding affinity between the RBD of the spike protein and ACE2 is significantly higher for Omicron compared to wildtypes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref105">Kumar et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">Abeywardhana et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref47">Cui et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref83">Hong et al., 2022</xref>). The mutations T478K, Q493R, Q498R, and N501Y collectively contribute to the increased binding affinity through electrostatic effects (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref105">Kumar et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">Abeywardhana et al., 2022</xref>). However, another study revealed that Omicron exhibits comparable binding affinity to ACE2 when compared to the wild type SARS-CoV-2 and weaker binding affinity than the Delta variant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref226">Wu et al., 2022</xref>). This discrepancy may stem from differences in the surface plasmon resonance methodologies employed in the studies, necessitating further research. The sublineages of Omicron display variations in their ACE2 affinity, with BA.2 exhibiting the highest affinity, followed by BA.3, BA.1, BA.2.75, and BA.5 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">Abeywardhana et al., 2022</xref>). Furthermore, Omicron variants exhibit reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies induced by triple-dose inactivated vaccines (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref163">Ren et al., 2023</xref>). Reports indicate that the neutralizing activity against Omicron variants is lost in 90% of immunization serum samples and 43% of convalescent serum samples (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref244">Zhang et al., 2022</xref>). In contrast to pre-Omicron variants, which primarily exploit TMPRSS2 for cell entry (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref82">Hoffmann et al., 2020b</xref>), Omicron variants have a propensity for entering nose and throat cells that are deficient in TMPRSS2 via the cathepsin-mediated endosomal pathway (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref91">Hui et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref136">Meng et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref223">Willett et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref246">Zhao et al., 2022</xref>). This shift in cell entry tropism from the membrane pathway to the endosomal pathway reduces the capacity of Omicron to fuse infected cells and form syncytia, resulting in a lower pathogenicity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref136">Meng et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref223">Willett et al., 2022</xref>). The Omicron&#x2019;s propensity to infect upper respiratory tract restricts its clinical manifestation and lowers the disease severity. From a structural standpoint, compared with Delta, Omicron has an inconsistent distribution of electrostatic potential and a geometric reorganization in the FCS of the spike protein. This structural divergence contributes to Omicron&#x2019;s reduced fusogenicity and consequently lower pathogenicity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref57">Fantini et al., 2022</xref>). Moreover, the Omicron variant possesses an enhanced capacity for immune evasion, leading to reinfection of individuals (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref38">Chavda et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref229">Xia et al., 2022</xref>). For pre-Omicron variants, infection-induced protective immunity has limited efficacy against BA.4 and BA.5, but it demonstrates a strong effect in preventing reinfection of BA.1 and BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Altarawneh et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>Notably, the combinatorial mutations in the spike protein appear to have a synergistic effect on the characteristics of Omicron, further complicating its mutation profile. Preliminary findings suggest that certain mutations in Omicron form three distinct clusters, wherein the mutations seem to work in concert to compensate for the detrimental effects of any individual mutation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref134">Martin et al., 2022</xref>). Two mutations, N501Y and Q498R, collectively increase the affinity of a variant for the ACE2 receptor by nearly 20-fold (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">Bate et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec7">
<label>3.2.</label>
<title>Spike mutations in novel subvariants</title>
<sec id="sec8">
<label>3.2.1.</label>
<title>BA.2.75 (BM.1.1.1)</title>
<p>BA.2.75, a descendant from BA.2, was first detected in India and Singapore (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref168">Saito et al., 2022</xref>). Differing from BA.2, BA.2.75 carries 9 additional mutations in the spike protein (147E, W152R, F157L, I210V, G257S, D339H, G446S, N460K, and an R493Q reversion mutation) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref178">Sheward et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref106">Kurhade et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref157">Qu et al., 2023</xref>). BA.2.75 exhibits enhanced resistance to neutralization compared to BA.2 but falls short of the BA.4/5 variant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref158">Qu et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref168">Saito et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">Cao et al., 2022b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref215">Wang L. et al., 2022</xref>). The G446S and N460K mutations are primarily responsible for the increased resistance of neutralizing antibodies against BA.2.75 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref158">Qu et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref207">Wang et al., 2022a</xref>), while the R493Q mutation reduces neutralization resistance (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref207">Wang et al., 2022a</xref>). Furthermore, the spike protein of BA.2.75 demonstrates significantly higher affinity for ACE2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref168">Saito et al., 2022</xref>), and the N460K mutation, which enhances S processing, leads to increased cell&#x2013;cell fusion of BA.2.75 compared to BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref158">Qu et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec9">
<label>3.2.2.</label>
<title>BA.4.6</title>
<p>BA.4.6, a sublineage of BA.4, carries two additional mutations in the spike protein (R346T and N658S) and was initially identified in the US and UK (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref74">Hachmann et al., 2022</xref>). This subvariant exhibits a notable ability to evade neutralizing antibodies induced by infection or vaccination, with titers lower than those of BA.5 by a factor of 2 to 2.7 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref74">Hachmann et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref208">Wang et al., 2022b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref155">Planas et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec10">
<label>3.2.3.</label>
<title>BF.7</title>
<p>BF.7 variant (also known as BA.5.2.1.7) is a derivative of BA.5 and has gained attention since the beginning of 2022, particularly in Asia (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref98">Kelleni, 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref148">Pan et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref173">Scarpa et al., 2023a</xref>). Compared to BA.5, BF.7 carries an additional R346T mutation in the RBD and shares an identical N-terminal domain (NTD) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref173">Scarpa et al., 2023a</xref>). The R346T mutation has been associated with enhancing the virus&#x2019;s ability to evade neutralizing antibodies generated by vaccines or previous infection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">Akif et al., 2023</xref>). However, R346T does not greatly increase the affinity of BF.7 to ACE2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref173">Scarpa et al., 2023a</xref>). Although enhanced resistance to neutralization exists (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref157">Qu et al., 2023</xref>), BF.7 appears to be less virulent, with a low evolutionary rate of 5.62 &#x00D7; 10<sup>&#x2013;4</sup> substitutions/sites/years compared to other Omicron subvariants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref173">Scarpa et al., 2023a</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec11">
<label>3.2.4.</label>
<title>CH.1.1</title>
<p>CH.1.1, a descendant of BA.2.75, has rapidly emerged in the UK. Compared with BA.2.75, CH.1.1 owns additional 4 substitutions (R346T, K444T, L452R, and F486S) in the RBD of the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref197">Uraki et al., 2023</xref>). CH.1.1 does not pose a significant threat to pandemic control. Antiviral drugs (remdesivir, molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir, and ensitrelvir) remain effective against CH.1.1, and an additional dose of bivalent mRNA vaccines may be beneficial in preventing CH.1.1 infection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref197">Uraki et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec12">
<label>3.2.5.</label>
<title>BQ.1 and BQ.1.1</title>
<p>BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have evolved from BA.5 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref208">Wang et al., 2022b</xref>). Compared with the progenitor BA.5, BQ.1 carries additional K444T and N460K mutations in the spike protein, while BQ.1.1 has an additional R346T mutation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref208">Wang et al., 2022b</xref>). Strong resistance to neutralization is observed in the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants, largely driven by the N460K mutation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref106">Kurhade et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref157">Qu et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec13">
<label>3.2.6.</label>
<title>XBB and XBB.1.5</title>
<p>XBB variant carries 9 additional changes in the RBD and 5 additional changes in the NTD compared to its progenitor BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref92">Imai et al., 2023</xref>). The R346 position is a critical mutation site (harboring R346T/S/I) that leads to increased immune evasion by neutralizing antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27">Cao et al., 2021</xref>). Similar to BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, the XBB lineage exhibits an exceptionally strong ability to evade antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">Arora et al., 2023</xref>). BQ and XBB subvariants have rendered all authorized antibodies ineffective, with titers against BQ and XBB significantly lower (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref207">Wang et al., 2022a</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref35">Chakraborty et al., 2023</xref>). A cohort study in Singapore revealed that protection against XBB reinfection was lower and weakened more rapidly compared to protection against BA.4 or BA.5 reinfection in previously vaccinated omicron-infected individuals (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref186">Tan et al., 2023</xref>), further indicating greater immune evasion in XBB.</p>
<p>XBB.1.5 has a substantial growth advantage over BQ.1.1 and XBB.1, becoming the predominant strain in the US by January 2023 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>). XBB.1.5 is a recombinant of two descendants from BA.2, differing from XBB.1 by an additional F486P mutation in the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>). Unlike the F486S mutation in XBB.1, which disrupts the local hydrophobic interaction of the spike with ACE2, F486P in XBB.1.5 restores this interaction (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref237">Yue et al., 2023</xref>). This mechanism enhances the affinity for ACE2 and suggests a higher growth advantage for XBB.1.5 compared to its progenitor XBB.1. F486P makes XBB.1.5 slightly less immune evasive but more infectious than its ancestor XBB.1, likely due to increased binding affinity to human ACE2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref130">Mahase, 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec14">
<label>3.2.7.</label>
<title>XBB.1.16</title>
<p>XBB.1.16 is another XBB sublineage harboring the F486P substitution, outcompeting other variants in India by the end of March 2023 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref118">Looi, 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref200">Varghese et al., 2023</xref>). Compared to XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 carries two additional substitutions, E180V in the NTD and T478R in the RBD, in the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref230">Yamasoba et al., 2023</xref>). XBB.1.16 exhibits a greater growth advantage compared to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5, but its potential for immune evasion is similar to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref230">Yamasoba et al., 2023</xref>). Notably, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5 demonstrate similar characteristics in terms of cell line tropism, cell entry efficiency, and neutralization evasion (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref143">Nehlmeier et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec15">
<label>3.3.</label>
<title>Spike mutations in RBD conformation</title>
<p>SARS-CoV-2 infection is partially controlled by the conformation of the spike protein RBD. The RBD located in the S1 subunit of the extracellular domain of the spike is responsible for interacting with ACE2 receptors, and has been shown an important molecular determinant of the COVID-19 pandemic (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref175">Shang et al., 2020</xref>). The RBD exists in two different conformations: up for receptor binding and down for immune evasion. Accordingly, the spikes are also in open and closed conformations. Compared with the closed-form spike protein, an open-form with an up RBD conformation leads to infection more rapidly (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref236">Yin et al., 2022</xref>), and binding with antibodies more easily (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">Berger and Schaffitzel, 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref236">Yin et al., 2022</xref>). <xref rid="fig4" ref-type="fig">Figure 4</xref> illustrates the different up or down conformations of spike protein complexed with ACE2 receptors. In the early phase of the pandemic, the D614G substitution adjacent to the NTD subdomain leads to a more open and thus receptor-accessible conformations of the spike compared with the wild-type (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">Benton et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref69">Gobeil et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref132">Mansbach et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref240">Zhang et al., 2021a</xref>). The D614G substitution confers the virus an adaptation advantage and higher transmissibility, facilitating the acquisition of further mutations and forming the variants of concern (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref103">Korber et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref241">Zhang et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref156">Plante et al., 2021</xref>). It is shown that the conformations of Alpha, Beta and Delta spikes are predominantly open and that the binding of ACE2 increases membrane fusion (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">Calvaresi et al., 2023</xref>). In contrast, substitution of the Omicron spikes results in a predominantly closed conformation that may allow them to evade antibodies (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">Calvaresi et al., 2023</xref>). Other studies show that the mutations in the RBD of Omicron may promote the conformation to change from &#x201C;down&#x201D; to &#x201C;up&#x201D; and thus increase engagement of ACE2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref86">Hossen et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref234">Ye et al., 2022</xref>). This may due to the mutations that reduce the protein&#x2013;protein interaction affinity of RBD with its neighboring domains (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref180">Singh et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<fig position="float" id="fig4">
<label>Figure 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Representation of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, showing amino acid mutations in VOCs Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron. Amino acid mutations are colored in orange, Alpha; yellow, Beta; purple, Gamma; green, Delta; red, Omicron; blue, &#x2265; 2 VOCs. The spike protein structure complexed with ACE2 receptor is obtained from <ext-link xlink:href="http://RCSB.org" ext-link-type="uri">RCSB.org</ext-link> (7KNE). The mutations of VOCs are based on the data from covariants (<ext-link xlink:href="https://covariants.org" ext-link-type="uri">https://covariants.org</ext-link>, 20I for Alpha, 20H for Beta, 20&#x2009;J for Gamma, 21A for Delta, and 21&#x2009;L for Omicron).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fmicb-14-1228128-g004.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Glycosylation is another way to affect the RBD conformation and thus change the spike open state. The SARS-CoV-2 spike gene encodes 22&#x2009;N-linked glycan sequons per protomer and the trimeric spike protein displays 66&#x2009;N-linked glycosylation sites. Glycosylated spike has a higher barrier to opening and also energetically favors the down state over the up state (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref149">Pang et al., 2022</xref>). Inhibition of protein N-glycosylation is shown to block SARS-CoV-2 infection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref30">Casas-Sanchez et al., 2021</xref>). The glycosylation sites also have the effect of facilitating immune evasion by shielding specific epitopes from antibody neutralization (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref218">Watanabe et al., 2019</xref>). It is observed that proximal glycosylation sites (N165, N234, and N343) shield the receptor binding sites on the SARS-CoV-2 spike, especially when the RBD is in the &#x201C;down&#x201D; conformation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref217">Watanabe et al., 2020</xref>). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref184">Sztain et al. (2021)</xref> revealed that N-glycan at position N343 facilitates RBD opening, and plays a gating role in the spike protein open state. Although the spike surface is substantially shielded by N-glycans, it presents regions that are vulnerable to neutralizing antibodies such as in the RBM, NTD, and S2 subunit (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref41">Chi et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref193">Tortorici et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref33">Cerutti et al., 2021</xref>). Mutations in the spike may affect glycosylation. For example, P681H and P681R were found in Alpha and Delta, respectively, and they decreased O-glycosylation which potentially increases furin cleavage and may influence viral infectivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref243">Zhang et al., 2021c</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec16">
<label>4.</label>
<title>Recombinant mutations complement variants with new properties</title>
<p>Recombination, a frequently observed evolutionary mechanism in coronaviruses, plays a significant role in the genetic diversity and evolution of these viruses. For example, lineage 5 of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which caused the MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea and mass infections in Saudi Arabia in 2015, is putatively a recombinant virus of groups 3 and 5 of clade B, or lineages 3 and 4 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref210">Wang et al., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref166">Sabir et al., 2016</xref>). The measurement of recombination versus <italic>de novo</italic> mutation (R/M) provides insights into the relative impact of these two variations (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref150">Pati&#x00F1;o-Galindo et al., 2021</xref>). In SARS-CoV-2, the R/M ratio is 0.00264 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref195">Turakhia et al., 2022</xref>), while in MERS, it is estimated to be 0.25&#x2013;0.31 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref150">Pati&#x00F1;o-Galindo et al., 2021</xref>), indicating a low level of recombinant mutations in the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, as co-infections and mutation accumulation increase within the population, recombination is expected to play a more prominent role in generating functional genetic diversity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref101">Kim et al., 2020</xref>).</p>
<sec id="sec17">
<label>4.1.</label>
<title>Co-circulation of variants provides basis for recombination</title>
<p>Recombination occurs when genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants co-infect the same host during co-circulation (<xref rid="fig5" ref-type="fig">Figure 5A</xref>). This process leads to the emergence of recombinant viruses with new properties, such as increased transmissibility or virulence (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref113">Li et al., 2020a</xref>). Recombination occurs frequently in the later phase of pandemic (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref199">Varabyou et al., 2021</xref>). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref195">Turakhia et al. (2022)</xref> developed a method called Recombination Inference using Phylogenetic PLacEmentS (RIPPLES) to detect recombination in pandemic-scale phylogenies. By analyzing a 1.6 million sample tree, they identified 589 recombination events, indicating that approximately 2.7% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes have detectable recombinant ancestry (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref195">Turakhia et al., 2022</xref>). The distribution of recombination breakpoints across the SARS-CoV-2 genome is not uniform, with a higher incidence toward the 3&#x2019; end compared to the 5&#x2019; end, consistent with previous analyses in other human coronaviruses (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref150">Pati&#x00F1;o-Galindo et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref142">M&#x00FC;ller et al., 2022</xref>). Recombination events often lead to genetic alterations near the breakpoints, and the specific breakpoints vary across the genome (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">Bolze et al., 2022</xref>). For example, a recombinant virus containing genetic material from the Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Epsilon (B.1.429) variants was detected in New York, and recombinant mutations were found in the spike, nucleocapsid, and ORF8 coding regions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref220">Wertheim et al., 2022</xref>). In the US, there have been nine reported recombination events between the Delta (AY.119.2) and Omicron (BA.1.1) variants, with the breakpoint located between the NTD and RBD of the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref107">Lacek et al., 2022a</xref>). These recombinants can produce hybridized spike proteins containing characteristic amino acids from both Delta and Omicron (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref107">Lacek et al., 2022a</xref>). The co-circulation of different variants highlights the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance, with particular attention to recombinants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref93">Jackson et al., 2021a</xref>). <xref rid="fig5" ref-type="fig">Figure 5B</xref> illustrates different patterns of recombination.</p>
<fig position="float" id="fig5">
<label>Figure 5</label>
<caption>
<p>Illustration of recombination in co-infected cells and different recombination patterns. <bold>(A)</bold> When different variants co-infect an individual, there is possibility that recombinant variants emerge with altered properties. <bold>(B)</bold> BA.3 is putatively a recombinant of BA.1 and BA.2, and the breakpoint probably lies in the spike protein-coding gene. BA.4 is putatively a recombinant of BA.2 and BA.5, and the breakpoint probably lies in the M protein-coding gene. XD and XF are recombinants of Delta and BA.1, and the breakpoints lie in the spike protein-coding gene/ORF3a and NSP3 protein-coding gene, respectively. XE is a recombinant of BA.1 and BA.2, with breakpoint lying in the NSP6 protein-coding gene. XBB.1.5 is a recombinant od BJ.1 and BA.2.75, and the breakpoint probably lies in the S1 subunit of the spike protein-coding gene. M, membrane protein; ORF3a, open reading frame 3a; NSP, non-structural protein.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fmicb-14-1228128-g005.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="sec18">
<label>4.2.</label>
<title>Co-infection in immunocompromised population accelerates recombination</title>
<p>Co-infection is common in the later phase of the pandemic. For example, a 17-year-old Portuguese female was reported to be co-infected with two SARS-CoV-2 lineages belonging to distinct clades, differing by six variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref152">Pedro et al., 2021</xref>). Similar co-infection events have been observed, such as B.1.1.28 co-infecting with either B.1.1.248 or B.1.91 lineages (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref48">da Silva Francisco et al., 2021</xref>), and GH co-infecting with GR clades (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref170">Samoilov et al., 2021</xref>). In the US, out of 29,719 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples sequenced from November 2021 to February 2022, 20 co-infections were identified (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref108">Lacek et al., 2022b</xref>). In Brazil, nine co-infection events (0.61%) were identified in the investigated samples from May 2020 to April 2021, although this data is likely an underestimation due to sample limitations. Recombination has been found to occur more frequently in immunodeficient individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref154">Perez-Florido et al., 2023</xref>). Immunodeficient individuals are considered incubators for punctuated evolutionary events, possibly due to their vulnerability to chronic and co-infections (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref165">Rockett et al., 2022</xref>). For instance, a recombinant variant of B.1.160 and Alpha was isolated from a patient with lymphoma who was chronically infected for 14&#x2009;months. The patient was initially infected with B.1.160, followed by concurrent Alpha infection, and eventually, the recombinant variant emerged (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">Burel et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec19">
<label>4.3.</label>
<title>Intra-variant recombination in omicron major subvariants</title>
<p>Recombination occurs in five major sublineages of Omicron. BA.1, a descendent lineage of B.1.1, shows distinctly different phylogenetic as compared with other VOCs or VOIs. It has caused the fourth epidemic wave in South Africa (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">Araf et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref115">Lino et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref172">Saxena et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref192">Tian et al., 2022</xref>). The spike gene sequencing reveals that the BA.1 subvariant shares nine common amino acid mutations with most VOCs in the spiked proteins (three more than BA.2) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">Araf et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref146">Ou et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref192">Tian et al., 2022</xref>), suggesting that Omicron may be derived from the recombinant origin of these VOCs. Three more Alpha-associated mutations (Del 69, Del 70, and Del Y144) were found in BA.1 rather than in BA.2, for BA.1 is phylogenetically closer to Alpha than the other variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref105">Kumar et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref146">Ou et al., 2022</xref>). Reverse mutations were also found in some dominant mutations (frequency&#x2009;&#x003E;&#x2009;95%) in BA.1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref146">Ou et al., 2022</xref>). Taken together, these support the role of Alpha in Omicron evolution.</p>
<p>Along with BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3 were also isolated in South Africa (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref248">Zhou et al., 2022</xref>). BA.2 has caused increased global infection, hospitalization, and mortality rate (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref39">Chen et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref63">Fonager et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref160">Rahimi and Bezmin Abadi, 2022a</xref>). BA.3 is likely a recombinant derivative of BA.1 and BA.2 due to BA.3 has similar genome in NTD region of the spike protein with BA.1 and BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref202">Viana et al., 2022</xref>). A study revealed that BA.3 shared main mutations with BA.1 and BA.2, and BA.3 seemed to originate later (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref211">Wang C. et al., 2022</xref>), thus to some extent, corroborating the possibility of recombination.</p>
<p>BA.4 and BA.5 were afterwards identified as Omicron lineages in South Africa (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref188">Tegally et al., 2022</xref>). They were estimated to have originated in mid-December 2021 and early January 2022 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref202">Viana et al., 2022</xref>). Their most recent common ancestor was estimated to have originated in mid-November 2021, coinciding with the emergence of BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref188">Tegally et al., 2022</xref>). It deserves to note that BA.4 and BA.5 are close to BA.2 in genomes, and they both have similar spike proteins with BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref188">Tegally et al., 2022</xref>). It is estimated that BA.4 and BA.5 are likely to evolve independently from the common ancestry of BA.2 subvariant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref211">Wang C. et al., 2022</xref>). Compared with BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 own extra mutations Del 69&#x2013;70, L452R, F486V, and the wild-type amino acid at position Q493 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref146">Ou et al., 2022</xref>). BA.4 and BA.5 share mutational profiles from 5&#x2019;-UTR to envelope protein but differ distinctly from membrane protein to 3&#x2019;-UTR (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref188">Tegally et al., 2022</xref>). This mutation pattern suggests that there exists a breakpoint within E and M, which is the possible evidence of recombinant event.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec20">
<label>4.4.</label>
<title>Inter-variant recombination between delta and omicron</title>
<p>Recombination events raised more concerns when Omicron quickly outcompeted Delta pandemic. Co-circulation of Delta and Omicron provided a grounded basis for recombinant variants. There is growing concern about the possibility that this recombination potential could eventually result in mutations that confer virus on enhanced transmissibility and immune escape properties.</p>
<p>On January 7, 2022, scientists detected a Delta and Omicron recombinant genome, and informally named it as &#x201C;Deltacron&#x201D; (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref104">Kreier, 2022</xref>). Nevertheless, it was later determined as a lab contamination (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref104">Kreier, 2022</xref>). On March 9, WHO declared the detection of such recombinants in different regions around the world and designated this Deltacron as a VUM (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref59">Farheen et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref135">Maulud et al., 2022</xref>). Generally, Deltacron is referred to as the AY.4/BA.1 recombinant, named XD, and consists of a full-length spike protein of Omicron and backbone of Delta (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref129">Mahase, 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref211">Wang C. et al., 2022</xref>). According to Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, of the 36 amino acid mutations found in the spike protein, 27 are present in BA.1 and 5 in AY.4, while 4 are present in both (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref206">Wang and Gao, 2022</xref>). Structural analysis of the Deltacron recombinant spike suggests its hybrid content leads to optimization of viral binding to the host cell membrane (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref43">Colson et al., 2022a</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref44">b</xref>). Consequently, this novel recombined virus causes increased disease transmission (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Chakraborty et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref84">Hosch et al., 2022</xref>). The Deltacron recombinant also has the potential to escape neutralization by monoclonal antibody (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref56">Evans et al., 2022</xref>). Although Delta (AY.45) and BA.1 are sensitive to Sotrovimab neutralization, while an AY.45-BA.1 recombinant, with its breakpoint located adjacent to the Sotrovimab binding site, is resistant to its neutralization (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref55">Duerr et al., 2023</xref>). Deltacron shows higher transmissibility but lower clinical severity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref140">Moisan et al., 2022</xref>). As recombination did not really emerge on a large scale and did not show its power until the appearance of Deltacron, the advent of Deltacron is regarded as a &#x201C;gray rhino&#x201D; event, rather than a &#x201C;black swan&#x201D; event.</p>
<p>Other than Deltacron (recombinant of AY.4 and BA.1, also known as XD), the UK Health security agency recognized two similar recombinants, XE and XF (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Chakraborty et al., 2022</xref>). The XE recombinant contains genomic elements from Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref161">Rahimi and Bezmin Abadi, 2022b</xref>). The breakpoint lies in the NSP6 protein-coding region of genome, with the 11,537&#x2009;bp of the BA.1 and 11,537&#x2009;bp of the BA.2 genomes before and after the break site (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Chakraborty et al., 2022</xref>). XE appears to be roughly 10% more transmissible than its parent variant BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">Basky and Vogel, 2022</xref>). The XF variant contains the genomes of NSP1 to NSP3 from the Delta variant; the breakpoint lies at site 5,386, and the rest genomes from Omicron BA.1 variant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref36">Chakraborty et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
<p>XBB, nicknamed Gryphon, is the most recent recombinant. XBB is regarded as the first observed SARS-CoV-2 variant to increase its fitness through recombination rather than substitutions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>). XBB derives from two BA.2 sublineages: BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1) and BM.1.1.1 (BA.2.75) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">Arora et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref174">Scarpa et al., 2023b</xref>). XBB and its first descendant XBB.1 are both evolutionarily close to BA.2 genomes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref174">Scarpa et al., 2023b</xref>), suggesting BA.2 acts as their progenitor. The breakpoint lies between position 22,901 and 22,939, a position in the middle of RBD (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref174">Scarpa et al., 2023b</xref>). The mutation profiles possibly altogether contribute to the greater immune invasion capabilities of XBB than do those of the earlier Omicron variants BA.2 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref92">Imai et al., 2023</xref>). The pathogenicity of XBB.1 is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>). Though XBB subvariants exhibit enhanced fusogenicity and substantial immune evasion in elderly population, but the fusion inhibitors EK1 and EK1C4 can potently block either XBB or XBB.1.5 spike protein mediated fusion and viral entry (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref227">Xia et al., 2023a</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec21">
<label>4.5.</label>
<title>Overall characteristics of emerging recombinants</title>
<p>As a whole, the novel recombinant subvariants demonstrate a higher transmission rate and relatively greater resistance to antibodies compared to earlier variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref207">Wang et al., 2022a</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">Brandolini et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref58">Faraone et al., 2023</xref>). In January 2023, there was a rapid increase in the prevalence of XBB.1.5 in the United States (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">Callaway, 2023</xref>). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), XBB.1.5 accounted for 23-86% of circulating variants throughout the country (XBB.1.5 Updated Risk Assessment, 24 February 2023).<xref rid="fn0006" ref-type="fn"><sup>6</sup></xref> However, these recombinant variants do not significantly increase the severity of the disease or cause clinical exacerbation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref97">Karyakarte et al., 2023</xref>). XBB.1.5 does not carry mutations associated with potential changes in pathogenicity, such as P681R (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref138">Mlcochova et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref167">Saito et al., 2021</xref>). It is important to note that most vaccines are developed based on the spike protein, and the emergence of recombinant variants may pose a risk of vaccine failure (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref185">Tamura et al., 2022</xref>). Therefore, it is crucial to consider potential new subvariants in the development of novel strategic vaccines.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec22">
<label>5.</label>
<title>Outlook for SARS-CoV-2 evolution and interventional strategies</title>
<p>Various factors drive the viral evolution (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref139">Moelling, 2021</xref>), including RNA polymerase exchanging accuracy for efficiency (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref235">Yewdell, 2021</xref>), the selective pressures exerted by host immune system (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref137">Milne et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref190">Thorne et al., 2021</xref>), chronic infection in other species then spillover to human (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref120">Lu et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref75">Hale et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref133">Marques et al., 2022</xref>), and prolonged co-infection in immunodeficient hosts (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref146">Ou et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref165">Rockett et al., 2022</xref>). These factors contribute to the mutation-selection-evolution process of SRAS-CoV-2 evolution. Continuous evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has led to rapid and simultaneous emergence of multiple variants that exhibit a growth advantage over previously circulating variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref224">Wolf et al., 2022</xref>). During the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the spike gene is the only gene that undergo the strong positive selection, while other genes show only weak or temporary positive selection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref119">Lu et al., 2023</xref>) Thus, spike mutations contribute highly in its evolution. The mutational process is dynamic, and the mutation spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 may tend to be more similar to that of other animal Sarbecoviruses (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">Bloom et al., 2022</xref>). Here we propose several interventional strategies.<list list-type="order">
<list-item>
<p>Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, specifically in the spike gene and genomic recombination, is of utmost importance in recognizing its evolutionary trend. Efforts have been made to promote the genomic monitoring. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref50">Dadonaite et al. (2023)</xref> developed a novel deep mutational scanning (DMS) platform for mapping the effects of spike protein mutations on immune evasion and viral infectivity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref228">Xia et al., 2023b</xref>). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref169">Saldivar-Espinoza et al. (2023)</xref> developed a SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Portal which provides access to a database of SARS-CoV-2 mutations. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref171">Sathyaseelan et al. (2023)</xref> developed a CoVe-tracker (SARS-CoV-2 evolution tracker)<xref rid="fn0007" ref-type="fn"><sup>7</sup></xref> for quick surveillance of newly emerging mutations/variants/lineages to facilitate the understanding of viral evolution, transmission, and disease epidemiology. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref90">Huang et al. (2023)</xref> developed a genomic surveillance framework and a dynamic community-based variant dictionary tree, which enables early detection and continuous investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Outbreak.info is a platform for scalable and dynamic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations, and it relies on shared virus sequences from the GISAID Initiative (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref66">Gangavarapu et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref194">Tsueng et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>As the recently expanding Omicron subvariants are capable of immune evasion from most of the existing neutralizing antibodies, it is imperative to explore broad-spectrum antivirals to combat the emerging variants. Resistance to monoclonal antibody neutralization is dominated by the action of epitope single amino acid substitutions in the spike protein (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9002">Cox et al., 2022</xref>). Currently, most therapeutic neutralizing antibodies and promising vaccine candidates are designed to target the RBD or use RBD as the sole antigen (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref179">Shi et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref233">Yang et al., 2020a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref232">2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref51">Dai et al., 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref76">Han et al., 2022</xref>). A novel group of neutralizing antibodies and vaccines targeting S2 subunit of the spike [such as fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeats 1 and 2 (HR1-HR2), and stem helix (SH)] may become the next generation of therapeutic strategies. For example, COV44-62 and COV44-79 were identified as anti-FP antibodies and showed considerable neutralizing capacity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref49">Dacon et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Strategies should be implemented to prevent long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection and to limit the spread of emerging, neutralization-resistant variants in immunocompromised patients (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref72">Gonzalez-Reiche et al., 2023</xref>). It is found that the evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 in chronic infection individual is 2-fold higher than that around the globe (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref34">Chaguza et al., 2023</xref>). This persistent intrahost evolution may accelerate antigenic alteration and lead to the emergence of genetically distinct subvariants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref181">Smith and Ashby, 2022</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">Ahmadi et al., 2023</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref34">Chaguza et al., 2023</xref>). <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">Bendall et al. (2023)</xref> observed a tight transmission bottleneck that would limit the development of highly mutated VOCs in the transmission chain of acutely infected individuals, further suggesting that selection for long-term infection in immunocompromised patients may drive SARS-CoV-2 VOC evolution (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">Braun et al., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref222">Wilkinson et al., 2022</xref>). Surveillance by sequencing is recommended for (i) patients carried with SARS-CoV-2, (ii) patients suspected of reinfection, and (iii) patients who are immunocompromised (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref109">Landis et al., 2023</xref>).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>Vaccination in large population acts as a valuable measure in decreasing the mortality. However, vaccination alone cannot slow the pace of viral evolution for immune evasion and therefore, vaccine protection against severe and fatal outcomes for COVID-19 patients may not be assured (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref198">Van Egeren et al., 2023</xref>). Current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not efficiently prevent the infection of Omicron convergent variants (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">Cao et al., 2022a</xref>). However, these may result from the decreased pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 via inducing the mutations. The vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 still efficiently decrease the case fatality rate (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref211">Wang C. et al., 2022</xref>).</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec23">
<label>6.</label>
<title>Summary and conclusion</title>
<p>In the process of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, external and internal pressures drive the selection of randomly occurring mutations, with the retention of favorable mutations leading to adaptation. SARS-CoV-2 exhibits a trajectory of evolution characterized by increased transmissibility, reduced virulence, and enhanced immune escape, enabling its long-term persistence within the population. The mutation patterns observed in pre-Omicron variants primarily manifest at recurrent amino acid sites within the spike protein, affecting the RBD conformation and glycosylation sites, consequently altering antigenicity. However, the emergence of the Omicron introduced a multitude of novel mutations, resulting in a substantial increase in transmissibility and immune evasion. Remarkably, the severity and clinical manifestation of patients did not escalate further, mainly for Omicron&#x2019;s tropism for the upper respiratory tract. These changes observed in Omicron are attributed to the ongoing viral evolution. The appearance of the recombinant variant XBB and its subsequent descendants since August 2022 likely stems from the co-circulation of multiple variants and co-infection in the immunocompromised patients during the later stage of the pandemic. Although novel recombinant variants such as XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 demonstrate a considerable transmission advantage and outcompete the predecessors, they do not exhibit a significant increase in disease severity and display relatively moderate antibody escape. Although SARS-CoV-2 is no longer regarded as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, its evolution persists. We strongly recommend for enhanced surveillance of the viral genome, particularly in immunocompromised patients, the development of therapeutics targeting domains beyond the RBD, and the promotion of widespread vaccination.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec24">
<title>Author contributions</title>
<p>GC and LF: conceptualization. LF, JX, YZ, JF, and JS: data collection. LF, JX, and GC: writing&#x2014;original draft preparation. LF, JX, GC, YZ, JF, WL, and JS: writing&#x2014;review and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="funding-information" id="sec25">
<title>Funding</title>
<p>This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041022) and Shanghai Commission of Science and Technology (20JC1410200 and 20431900404).</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="sec26">
<title>Conflict of interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="sec143">
<title>Publisher&#x2019;s note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
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<p>The authors acknowledge the use of Biorender.com to create <xref rid="fig1" ref-type="fig">Figure 1</xref>, <xref rid="fig2" ref-type="fig">2</xref>, and <xref rid="fig5" ref-type="fig">5</xref>.</p>
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