AUTHOR=Wang Fangzhou , Zhang Quan , Lu Shichun , Zheng Yamin 

TITLE=Machine learning-based tumor associated macrophages polarity signature predicts prognosis and treatment response in hepatocellular carcinoma

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Immunology

VOLUME=Volume 16 - 2025

YEAR=2025

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2025.1663519

DOI=10.3389/fimmu.2025.1663519

ISSN=1664-3224

ABSTRACT=BackgroundTumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) shape the tumor microenvironment and drive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression. However, the prognostic significance of TAM polarity-related genes, particularly based on the CXCL9:SPP1 signature, remains unclear.MethodsWe identified 372 TAM polarity-related genes in the TCGA-LIHC dataset. Prognostic candidates were selected using univariate Cox regression, bootstrap resampling, and the Boruta algorithm. Seven machine learning models were compared, and XGBoost was selected to construct a TAM polarity-related signature (TPS) consisting of 17 genes. TPS was validated in two external cohorts. Associations with clinical features, biological pathways, immune status, and drug sensitivity were explored. scRNA-seq and qRT-PCR were performed to investigate cellular expression and functional relevance.ResultsTPS markedly different patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different survival outcomes (TCGA 1-, 3-, 5-year AUCs: 0.91, 0.89, 0.88). High-risk patients showed enrichment in glycan metabolism, DNA repair, and oncogenic pathways, whereas low-risk patients displayed elevated lipid and amino acid metabolism. Immune profiling revealed greater infiltration of immunosuppressive cells and higher expression of immune checkpoints in high-risk patients. Drug sensitivity analysis identified potential therapeutic targets and candidate compounds, including CDK1, PLK1, and statins. scRNA-seq analysis highlighted disrupted macrophage-immune interactions and identified SPP1 as a key signaling mediator. Silencing of TTC1 and G6PD suppressed HCC cell proliferation.ConclusionWe developed and validated a robust TAM polarity-related signature that effectively stratifies HCC patients by prognosis. TPS provides insights into tumor immunity, metabolism, and drug response, and may serve as a valuable tool for precision medicine in HCC.