The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems is a trending subject that has captured the attention of researchers, forest managers, and policymakers worldwide. Increasing disturbances such as forest fires, erosion, pest and insect outbreaks, floods, and prolonged seasons of drought are all attributed to climate change (Seidl et al., 2017). These phenomena reduce forest productivity, damage tree populations and affect forest ecosystem services (Gebeyehu, 2019; Nunes et al., 2021). Consequently, the effects of climate change also influence how communities benefit from the forests. Therefore, rural communities that depend on forests for fuel, construction materials, food, and income face increasing challenges in securing these resources. Namibia is regarded as the most arid country in sub-Saharan Africa (Naftal et al., 2024; Van Rensburg and Tortajada, 2021). This makes it the most vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change in the region (Lotfy, 2019; Mapaure, 2022). The country’s forests are characterised by sparsely distributed trees and shrubs, which form woodland ecosystems that provide essential services such as firewood, poles, and non-timber forest products (Vrabcová et al., 2019).

Globally, forest products are recognised as vital contributors to livelihoods and human well-being, especially in rural areas of developing countries (Mugari et al., 2024). Local communities use forest products for various purposes, particularly in the form of non-wood forest products (NWPs). It is a well-known fact that NWPs play a vital role in the livelihoods and economies of many rural communities, particularly in rural areas (Asamoah et al., 2023; Nakanyala et al., 2022). In Namibia, the commercialisation of NWPs is often promoted to improve rural livelihoods, especially for vulnerable communities (Nakanyete et al., 2023; Nikodemus and Hájek, 2015). However, it is worth noting that the role of forest products has been significantly influenced by climate change. For example, it has been established that the increasing climate change effects on crop production and other livelihoods have resulted in NWPs playing a safety net role for communities to sustain their livelihoods (Tieminie et al., 2021). In the same vein, the available quantities of forest products, including NWPs, are declining due to climate change effects, such as drought, fire, pest outbreaks, hydro-geomorphic, and wind (Altman et al., 2024; Saffa et al., 2024).

In the far northern regions of the country, communities rely on forest resources for daily needs, including cooking, heating, and construction (Nikodemus et al., 2023; Vrabcová et al., 2019). Forests also provide NWPs such as medicine, fruits, mushrooms, and mopane worms. Mopane worms are particularly common in the far northern regions such as Kunene and Omusati. Colophospermum mopane (C. mopane) is among the dominant tree species in these regions, and it plays a crucial role due to its drought tolerance and high wood quality.

Dry and warm climatic conditions characterise the two far northern regions of Kunene and Omusati. In these regions, irregular annual rainfall ranges from less than 50 mm in the west to 415 mm in the east (Awala et al., 2019; Nikodemus et al., 2023). Seasonal variations in average daily temperatures range from 5 °C to 35 °C (Inman et al., 2020). Summertime temperatures can be extremely hot, with average lows of 14 °C and highs of 35 °C. The temperature range for winter is 5 °C to 26 °C (Inman et al., 2020).

These extreme climatic conditions in the two regions limit the survival of many tree species. Yet, the regions are primarily dominated by C. mopane. This suggests that C. mopane has adapted to the harsh climatic conditions, making it a critical resource for subsistence and commercial use. The species provides firewood, construction materials, and food, which all contribute to local livelihoods (Krug, 2017). Due to its high economic and ecological value, C. mopane is a protected tree species in Namibia (Laws Africa, 2015).

Despite extensive research on forest provisioning services (Kamwi et al., 2020; Nikodemus et al., 2023), few studies have examined their long-term socioeconomic feasibility in sparsely forested areas, particularly under climate change (Leonard and Iileka, 2024; Nikodemus et al., 2023; Vrabcová et al., 2019). Unlike previous studies that broadly documented the socioeconomic role of C. mopane in Namibia (Nikodemus et al., 2023; Vrabcová et al., 2019), this paper uniquely assesses the feasibility under climate change from a household livelihood perspective using both subsistence and commercial utilisation data. Specifically, our study introduces a baseline socioeconomic dataset across 73 villages in Kunene and Omusati, explicitly linking perceived climate challenges with mopane-based incomes. This provides a sharper understanding of local-level adaptation gaps, which previous studies did not quantify. While forests are known to support rural livelihoods (Shahi et al., 2022; Wunder et al., 2014), the sustainability of these benefits in arid regions remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aims to assess whether the provisioning services of C. mopane remain viable for both subsistence and commercial use under changing climatic conditions in north-central Namibia.

The socioeconomic results focused on the regions, gender, age, marital status, level of education, employment status, family size, and length of stay in the region (Table 1).

There were slightly more respondents from the Kunene region (n = 58; 51%) than from the Omusati region (n = 55; 49%). Regarding gender, male respondents slightly dominated the participation (n = 58; 51%) compared to females (n = 55; 49%). The age ranged from 18 to >60 years, with the age category 36–40 years old (n = 27; 24%) recording the highest number of respondents. Most respondents were single (n = 56; 48%), while in the level of education sphere, secondary education (grades 8–12) was dominant (n = 45; 38%). Nearly half of the respondents were unemployed (n = 55; 50%). Family sizes ranged from 1 to >16 people, with most families comprising 6–10 people (n = 42; 38%). Lastly, the length of stay in the study area (villages represented) ranged from 1 to >10 years, and it was indicated that the longest stay was 6–10 years.

Forests continue to support the livelihoods of e livelihoods of disadvantaged indigenous communities that are forest dependent (Nakanyete et al., 2023). On the global level, it was estimated that approximately 1.14 billion (71.3%) people from low- to middle-income countries live in or around forests where they can derive some benefits from forest products (Newton et al., 2020). The same is true for the rural communities within the C. mopane woodlands in the Kunene and Omusati regions of the northern part of Namibia.

Colophospermum mopane is a unique tree/shrub species with strong adaptation characteristics to dry conditions (Krug, 2017; Teshirogi et al., 2017). Therefore, the species is valuable for ecological and socioeconomic benefits. The species supports local communities’ livelihoods in many ways (Madzibane and Potgieter, 1999; Nikodemus et al., 2023; Vrabcová et al., 2019). However, like other plant species, the feasibility of the socioeconomic benefits of C. mopane is affected by several factors (Blanco et al., 2021), including climate change. For example, the notable changes have several impacts on forest ecosystems through the extinction of species (including plants and animals), long-term growth and fluctuations of seasons and changes in forest fires (Saffa et al., 2024). In this current study, we assess the feasibility of the socioeconomic benefits of this valuable species under the changing climate in north-central Namibia.

Our results showed a wide range of products that local communities can extract from C. mopane. Local communities extract products such as firewood, poles/droppers, woodcraft, bark-ropes, and mopane worms (Figure 2A) from C. mopane. Firewood, for example, is critically important in rural areas (villages) without electricity. Poles and droppers are significant construction and fencing materials for the homesteads and fencing of crop fields and livestock kraals (Table 4).

This is no surprise, as several studies have indicated that the local rural communities in many developing countries depend heavily on forests for their livelihoods (Nikodemus and Hájek, 2015; Shahi et al., 2022; Wunder et al., 2014). However, our results showed that firewood and poles/droppers were the most significant products of the species. The species has strong wood, making it suitable for multiple uses (Madzibane and Potgieter, 1999; Musvoto et al., 2006), including firewood and poles/droppers. Furthermore, it has been established that C. mopane is a good source of firewood, and it is commonly preferred for this purpose in most rural communities (Madzibane and Potgieter, 1999). It is also worth highlighting that the dominance of firewood as a product type of C. mopane is attributed to the poor electrification in most rural areas of north-central Namibia. It has been reported that a significant 70%–80% of Namibia’s rural households remain unelectrified (Mpako and Ndoma, 2024).

Forests contribute to the rural livelihoods and economy in a number of ways: directly as a user of land and resources (Slee, 2004). This overwhelming reliance on mopane for subsistence (89%) highlights the resource’s role as a safety net for rural households, consistent with findings in Botswana (Mogotsi et al., 2022). However, such dependence also underscores vulnerability to climate-related declines, as no equivalent substitute exists on this scale. This implies that the commercialisation of forest products was low. Several factors may have contributed to the poor commercialisation of the products. For example, C. mopane is registered as a protected species in Namibia (Laws Africa, 2015). This implies that to ensure sustainability, forestry policies and legislation restrict the utilisation of its products (Hinz and Ruppel, 2022; Nikodemus et al., 2023). Forestry restriction measures in the harvesting and use of the products significantly influence the products’ source. This study discovered that local communities mainly harvest C. mopane products from family crop fields (Figure 3A). All these factors, and possibly many others, resulted in poor income generation from C. mopane products. Our results showed that income generated throughout the study period (2010–2022) was relatively low, ranging from <1,000 to 5,000 NAD per sale (Figure 4A).

Although the results did not highlight the factors associated with poor commercialisation, it is worth pointing out that climatic conditions, slow growth rates, harvesting restriction measures, limited resources and high desertification rates could have affected the poor commercialisation of the products. The harvesting restrictions, in particular, are emphasised due to the escalating loss of biodiversity through deforestation and forest degradation processes, which is a major development challenge in most developing countries (Kamanga et al., 2009). Furthermore, a full cost–benefit or enterprise analysis was not attempted due to a lack of detailed expenditure and labour input data. Future research should address this gap.

Furthermore, the study revealed that access to the market was one of the significant recommendations made by the respondents to maximise the feasibility of the socioeconomic benefits of C. mopane (Figure 7). This concurs with the literature, revealing that poor access to the market is among the factors affecting livelihood incomes in other developing countries, for example, Cambodia (Felkner et al., 2022). Hence, local communities primarily use the products for household needs (subsistence). However, the results further indicate that the insignificant commercialisation of C. mopane products is mainly practiced in informal markets (Figure 3B). In the same view, due to poor access to the market, local communities use informal markets to sell their products. This includes selling points such as door-to-door and farm gates (Figure 5B).

To contextualise perceptions, regional studies confirm declining rainfall and increasing variability in north-central Namibia (Awala et al., 2019; Inman et al., 2020). However, since our analysis relied on perceptions, caution is needed when interpreting causality between climate variables and mopane benefits.

Our finding that 89% of mopane is used for subsistence (Figure 2B) suggests that policies should prioritise household energy alternatives, such as solar cookers, to reduce firewood dependence. Similarly, since 50% of respondents earned <NAD 5,000 annually from mopane (Table 2), expanding market access and training (Figure 7) is directly aligned with income diversification needs. Importantly, culturally acceptable alternatives, such as marula (Sclerocarya birrea) products and agroforestry with indigenous species, should be promoted rather than generic substitutions.

Furthermore, our results highlight several climate-related challenges that have potentially severe long-term effects on the forest products of C. mopane. These climate-related challenges, such as erratic rainfall and tree mortality rates (Lindner et al., 2010), provide evidence of the effects of climate change on the socioeconomic benefits of C. mopane. Given these potential effects, it will be safer to implement measures to discourage the dependence of local communities on mopane products.

It has been established that there is increasing pressure on and declining mopane woodlands as a result of increasing use and competition for C. mopane resources in Namibia (Musvoto et al., 2006). In the same view, it is worth highlighting that the expanding human population exerts pressure on the forest ecosystems (Alam et al., 2024; Rodrigues et al., 2016). However, more studies are critically required to appropriately quantify the demands and risks of using woody products in mopane woodlands.

Therefore, our study recommends that, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders, including researchers, traditional authorities and potential donor funders, MEFT may intensify efforts to educate rural communities on the negative effects of relying on forest products for socioeconomic benefits. Furthermore, priority may be given to alternatives, such as solar energy for cooking, lighting and heating, and bricks for construction. Regarding income generation, communities may be encouraged through well-monitored support to plant and sell tree seedlings, such as fruit trees, including Berchemia discolour, Sclerocarya birrea (marula tree), and other native tree species, such as Terminalia spp., Combretum spp., and timber species (Baikiaea plurijuga, Burkea Africana, Guibourtia coleosperma, and Pterocarpus angolensis), instead of harvesting products from mature trees, which leads to desertification. To reduce the pressure on forests, we further recommend that local communities should be supported and encouraged to engage in agroforestry and tree planting projects, as well as the cultivation of drought-resistant crops. This approach will restore forests, and the effects of climate change will be minimised. We recommend that future studies assess the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in managing forest resources and utilisation in mopane woodlands.

Several minor limitations exist in this study. First, due to the lack of long-term climatic data, our current study did not quantify the extent to which climate change affects socioeconomic benefits. However, our results show that the socioeconomic benefits of C. mopane are viable to some extent under the changing climate. Furthermore, our study could have provided strong evidence of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystem services, particularly on the socioeconomic benefits of C. mopane. However, unlike integrated climate-socioeconomic studies, we did not statistically link climatic time-series data to household outcomes. Therefore, this paper should be framed as primarily a socioeconomic baseline with climate perceptions, rather than a climate-impact attribution study. It is also worth highlighting that the lack of long-term climatic data resulted in the exclusion of a correlation between climatic time-series data and household outcomes. We assessed climate-related effects such as erratic rainfalls and tree mortality rates to address this challenge. Furthermore, using a self-administered questionnaire may reduce the reliability of the collected data due to social bias. We made the questionnaire anonymous to alleviate this bias and emphasised this aspect during the administration of the survey items. Lastly, despite the efforts to explain the main concepts and goals of the study, some parts of the questionnaire were incomplete due to the low level of education among the respondents. However, since our sample size was significantly representative, we obtained ample responses, and the data obtained for each question could yield reliable results.