1 Introduction
In the context of China’s strategic agenda for ensuring national food security, farmland protection has increasingly become a fundamental and long-term policy priority (Wang et al., 2023; Lichtenberg and Ding, 2008; Liang et al., 2015). Farmland, as the cornerstone of agricultural production, directly influences the stability of the food supply system and the sustainable development of agriculture (Lu et al., 2022; Qi et al., 2018). With growing pressures from rapid population growth, accelerated urban expansion, land use changes, and the escalating effects of climate change, the availability, continuity, and productivity of arable land have come under significant stress. This has further elevated the strategic significance of farmland protection as a central component of national development planning. Beyond its essential contribution to food production, farmland also provides a range of critical ecosystem services, including soil fertility conservation, hydrological regulation, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity preservation. Therefore, effective farmland protection is not only vital for agricultural sustainability but also for broader ecological security and climate resilience (He et al., 2020; Wade et al., 2008).
Socioeconomic factors play a pivotal role in sustaining rural livelihoods, particularly in developing countries such as China, where agriculture remains the predominant source of income for a substantial proportion of rural households (Deller et al., 2003). The degradation or reduction of arable land not only weakens the foundation of the agricultural economy but also poses serious threats to rural social stability, exacerbating risks of marginalization, inequality, and persistent poverty. Consequently, the protection of farmland transcends the boundaries of agronomic or environmental policy; it is a fundamental pillar of rural revitalization, social equity, and sustainable territorial governance. On a global scale, farmland protection is also closely aligned with the objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those aimed at ensuring food security, halting land degradation, and safeguarding rural livelihoods and community resilience (Ramankutty et al., 2018).
Farmland abandonment is not a phenomenon unique to China. Across Europe, particularly in countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece, large-scale land abandonment has been observed in mountainous and marginal areas due to rural depopulation, industrialization, and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms (MacDonald et al., 2000; Rey Benayas et al., 2007). In Eastern Europe, post-socialist land reforms triggered significant fragmentation and underutilization of farmland (Van Vliet et al., 2015). Similar patterns have been reported in North America, where marginal lands in the United States and Canada have been abandoned due to urbanization, changes in agricultural subsidies, and declining profitability in traditional farming systems. In parts of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, land abandonment is often driven by rural-urban migration, armed conflict, land tenure insecurity, or unsustainable land management practices. In Japan and South Korea, aging rural populations and youth outmigration have also contributed to widespread land abandonment. These global cases underscore the complexity of abandonment dynamics, typically shaped by a combination of demographic, economic, environmental, and institutional transitions, highlighting the need for context-specific strategies in land use policy.
Despite the presence of robust institutional frameworks and ongoing policy innovations, farmland abandonment continues to emerge as a pressing challenge across various regions (Liang et al., 2015; Lu et al., 2022). Defined as the cessation or significant reduction of agricultural activities on arable land, this phenomenon has far-reaching implications for national food production, soil and land degradation, and the erosion of rural socio-economic resilience. In China, the issue is particularly pronounced in hilly and mountainous areas, where fragmented terrain, low agricultural profitability, and widespread access to off-farm employment collectively contribute to widespread land abandonment. Recent empirical studies have further revealed the complexity and regional heterogeneity of farmland abandonment dynamics in southern and southwestern China. For instance, studies in mountainous areas of southwestern China have identified steep topography, labor shortages, and an aging rural population as core drivers of abandonment (Yu et al., 2025). These region-specific studies provide complementary perspectives. Similarly, researchers have shown that family structure and gaps in social policy implementation significantly shape abandonment behavior among peasants in scattered villages across southern China (Chen et al., 2025). Farmland abandonment does not stem from a single determinant but rather reflects a complex interplay among economic constraints, environmental limitations, and household-level behavioral decisions (Lu et al., 2022).
While socioeconomic factors such as labor availability and income levels are widely acknowledged as primary drivers of farmland abandonment, recent studies have increasingly emphasized the role of natural conditions. Variables such as topography, soil fertility, and climate variability can significantly influence the viability of agricultural land (Estel et al., 2015). In many cases, steep terrain, low suitability for mechanized cultivation, inadequate irrigation infrastructure, and exposure to environmental risks including erosion, landslides, and droughts reduce both the economic feasibility and ecological sustainability of farming. Regions with limited agroecological potential are often the first to be abandoned during processes of rural transformation or demographic change. Institutional factors also exert substantial influence on land-use decisions. These include the security of land tenure, the clarity and stability of property rights, the effectiveness of policy implementation, the design of agricultural subsidy schemes, and the structure of rural governance systems. For instance, fragmented land ownership, insecure rental arrangements, and weakly coordinated rural revitalization efforts can create uncertainty that discourages continued cultivation. When institutional support is insufficient or incentives are poorly aligned with farmers’ needs, agricultural activity may decline or land may be left uncultivated for extended periods.
A growing body of research has examined farmland protection and abandonment from a range of disciplinary perspectives. Existing studies have investigated the dynamics of farmland quantity and quality (Solomon, 1984; Song and Liu, 2017; Zhang et al., 2019; Shi et al., 2013), evaluated the effectiveness of preservation policies, and explored the roles of institutional actors and farmer participation (Liang et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2022; You et al., 2021). Evidence suggests that specific elements of policy design, including land-use regulations, taxation frameworks, and ecological compensation mechanisms, significantly influence farmers’ willingness to engage in land conservation (Ferris and Frank, 2021; Duke, 2008; Qian et al., 2021). Comparative policy analyses conducted across Europe have underscored the importance of legal enforceability and institutional integration in achieving farmland protection objectives (Oliveira et al., 2019). Furthermore, recent studies have highlighted the roles of social capital, interpersonal trust, and community norms in enhancing the effectiveness of participatory conservation efforts (Wossen et al., 2015). Nevertheless, some regulatory instruments, although successful in curbing land misuse, may lead to unintended consequences such as diminished incentives for active land management and increased rural out-migration, thereby generating hidden social and ecological costs.
In China, the strategic imperative of farmland protection is accentuated by pronounced structural constraints: the nation sustains a population exceeding 1.4 billion, yet possesses only 12.86 million hectares of farmland, resulting in a per capita availability of merely 0.09 ha (Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China; https://x.m.mnr.gov.cn/sj/). Data from the Third National Land Survey highlight the acute imbalance between limited land resources and escalating food demand. In response, the Chinese government has instituted the most rigorous farmland protection framework to date, encompassing legal prohibitions on non-agricultural land conversion, the delineation of permanent basic farmland, and the deployment of comprehensive land-use monitoring systems (Yang et al., 2020). These policy measures not only seek to safeguard the quantitative baseline of farmland but also aim to enhance its ecological integrity and sustainable productivity through the integration of ecological restoration and institutional governance mechanisms.
The Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) serves as a representative case in southwestern China due to its dual role as a critical grain-producing region and its location within ecologically fragile mountainous terrain. The region is undergoing rapid rural–urban transformation, marked by significant rural depopulation, land fragmentation, and uneven agricultural development, all of which contribute to increasing farmland abandonment. In addition, complex topography, limited infrastructure, and environmental stressors such as soil erosion, low fertility, and climate variability further constrain agricultural viability (Dai et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2021). As a national development priority, the CCEC holds policy relevance for land-use governance in transitional economies across China and the Global South. Based on LUCC (Land Use/Cover Change) data, this study analyzed the spatial distribution and extent of farmland abandonment in the CCEC over the past decade. A Binary Logistic Regression Model, based on household interview data, was employed to identify the key natural, socioeconomic, and institutional factors influencing farmers’ land-use decisions. The findings aim to provide a scientific basis for formulating more targeted and effective farmland protection strategies in mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions.
4 Discussion
4.1 Spatial and socioeconomic patterns of farmland abandonment in the CCEC
The spatial distribution of farmland abandonment within the CCEC displays pronounced regional heterogeneity, primarily influenced by differing urbanization and socioeconomic dynamics. In the core urban areas, farmland abandonment represents an advanced stage of land-use transformation, characterized by the widespread conversion of agricultural lands into urban infrastructure, commercial developments, and residential zones (Li et al., 2014; Seto et al., 2012; Gao et al., 2023). This near-total loss of farmland in urban centers aligns with intense urban consolidation processes observed in rapidly expanding metropolitan regions globally. Such spatial shifts not only diminish the total farmland available but also push agricultural activities toward suburban and rural peripheries, effectively redefining the rural-urban land-use interface. These patterns highlight the urgent need for integrated land-use planning strategies that balance ongoing urban expansion with the protection and sustainable management of peri-urban agricultural ecosystems (Gao et al., 2023).
In contrast, the peripheral mountainous and hilly areas of the CCEC experience significantly higher rates of farmland abandonment, with some localities exceeding 20%, especially in dryland farming zones. This pattern is predominantly driven by persistent socioeconomic challenges, including the outmigration of rural labor and diminishing agricultural profitability (Zhang et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2022). These findings resonate with New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM), which posits that rural households make migration decisions not merely based on individual income maximization, but as a household strategy to diversify risk and access urban-based income streams. Accordingly, the loss of labor for farming is a byproduct of rational household strategies under conditions of rural economic stagnation and agricultural uncertainty. Given that dryland farming is more labor-intensive and less mechanized than paddy rice cultivation, it is disproportionately affected by these demographic changes (Simelton et al., 2009; Zheng et al., 2024).
4.2 Biophysical and economic drivers of differential abandonment in dryland and paddy fields
The markedly higher abandonment rates observed in dryland compared to paddy fields can be attributed to a complex interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors. Drylands are predominantly situated on steeper slopes and marginal soils characterized by low fertility and heightened vulnerability to soil erosion, drought stress, and land degradation, which collectively constrain the long-term viability of agricultural production (Estel et al., 2015). Economically, dryland farming generally yields lower returns due to limited irrigation infrastructure and greater exposure to environmental risks, leading to elevated production costs and reduced profitability that diminish farmers’ incentives to maintain cultivation (Yan et al., 2016). In contrast, paddy fields are typically located on more level terrain with fertile soils and well-established irrigation systems, cultivating staple crops such as rice that offer relatively stable yields and market demand. However, paddy cultivation is labor-intensive, requiring continuous and skilled management activities including transplanting, water regulation, and weed control. Consequently, in regions experiencing significant rural labor shortages and aging demographics, the labor demands of paddy farming exacerbate abandonment risks. This divergence in abandonment patterns between dryland and paddy fields underscores the synergistic effects of labor availability constraints, economic viability, and environmental suitability in shaping land-use decisions.
Beyond socioeconomic factors, natural environmental conditions critically influence farmland abandonment patterns. The hilly and mountainous fringes of the CCEC are characterized by steep slopes, fragmented terrain, and poor soil fertility, which severely constrain the sustainability of agricultural production. These areas are highly vulnerable to ecological risks such as soil erosion, drought, and land degradation, which compound the difficulties of cultivation and frequently render continued farming economically or physically unfeasible. Moreover, the challenging terrain limits the feasibility of mechanization and the development of efficient irrigation infrastructure, thereby increasing labor demands and production costs. Consequently, the interplay of natural constraints and socioeconomic pressures fosters a spatially heterogeneous abandonment pattern, where marginal lands are especially susceptible to functional withdrawal from agricultural use. From the perspective of land change science, these land-use transitions illustrate how structural drivers such as demographic shifts, market accessibility, and biophysical limitations interact to generate emergent patterns of abandonment (Turner et al., 2007). These dynamics further reinforce the spatial differentiation between core agricultural regions and marginal landscapes.
4.3 Economic pressures and policy challenges in marginal agricultural regions
Economic factors exacerbate farmland abandonment in these marginal regions. Declining returns from traditional agriculture, coupled with volatile market prices, rising input costs, and intense competition, diminish incentives for sustained cultivation (Wang et al., 2023). Marginal lands often incur higher production costs and yield lower outputs, reducing their attractiveness for continued farming. Consequently, such lands are frequently left fallow or repurposed for alternative uses, including forestry, pasture, or non-agricultural development. These findings highlight the inadequacy of uniform farmland management policies and advocate for region-specific strategies aimed at enhancing rural labor retention, piloting mechanization tailored to terraced drylands, and facilitating livelihood diversification to sustain agricultural land use and rural vitality. Such pilot projects could align with the Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024–2035), which emphasizes adaptive technologies and regionally differentiated strategies for mechanization in difficult terrain. Furthermore, environmental protection considerations must be integrated into policy design to reconcile agricultural production with ecological conservation, especially in environmentally sensitive mountainous areas (Gao et al., 2023). Future research should prioritize longitudinal monitoring of abandonment trends and evaluate the potential of emerging technological interventions, such as digital agriculture, in mitigating abandonment risks.
4.4 The predominant role of socioeconomic and institutional factors
Our findings emphasize the predominant influence of socioeconomic factors in driving farmland abandonment amid rapid rural transformation (Song and Liu, 2017). The limited explanatory power of natural environmental variables likely stems from the relative agro-ecological uniformity within the study area, which reduces their capacity to explain spatial heterogeneity in abandonment patterns (Plieninger et al., 2016). Likewise, institutional factors such as land tenure security and the rigor of policy enforcement may indeed affect farmland use decisions, yet these influences were challenging to capture quantitatively due to insufficient data resolution and variability (Van Vliet et al., 2015). Notably, land transfer exhibited a positive but statistically insignificant correlation with farmland abandonment, implying inefficiencies within local land rental markets. These inefficiencies may promote land speculation or informal idling instead of encouraging active cultivation, underscoring the importance of further investigations into institutional and market dynamics that shape land use behaviors (Chen et al., 2023). Addressing these issues is crucial for formulating effective policies to mitigate farmland abandonment and promote sustainable land management.
4.5 Socioeconomic drivers and policy influences on farmland abandonment
Empirical evidence further indicates that farmland abandonment in the CCEC is fundamentally driven by the dual demographic pressures of rural aging and persistent outmigration of the younger workforce, jointly constraining labor availability. Many farming households increasingly rely on hired labor; however, escalating agricultural wage costs, fueled by urban wage inflation, undermine the economic feasibility of grain cultivation. Although hired labor is commonly used, it mainly consists of relatively young neighbors rather than professional workers, leading to instability and intermittency. Therefore, hired labor does not effectively compensate for the negative effects of labor shortages. This finding corroborates previous studies identifying labor shortages and rising input costs as primary determinants of farmland abandonment in urbanizing contexts (Hou et al., 2021; Zhou et al., 2020). These findings contribute to a growing body of literature emphasizing the socio-demographic transformation of rural China as a critical factor in shaping land-use outcomes, especially in economically transitioning peri-urban regions. More broadly, our findings echo global debates in land systems science concerning how urbanization and demographic transitions reshape agrarian systems, often rendering traditional farming economically or socially obsolete in transitional regions.
The economic rationale underpinning smallholder decisions is evident in the statistically significant association between low net returns and abandonment behavior. Survey data reveal that a marginal net income from grain production of approximately 7500 RMB per hectare has led numerous farmers to reduce or cease cultivation. Land is often transferred to other users or converted to higher-value uses such as aquaculture or cash crop production. Qualitative interviews corroborate these trends, with multiple respondents reporting land conversion from paddy to dryland or commercial use. This pattern aligns with the broader “non-grainization” phenomenon increasingly documented in peri-urban and developed agricultural regions of China (Ma et al., 2009). The underlying incentive structure is clear: persistently low grain prices combined with insufficient subsidy support encourage smallholders to reallocate land toward more profitable ventures.
Our study demonstrates that higher education levels and access to agricultural subsidies significantly reduce the likelihood of farmland abandonment, underscoring the pivotal role of knowledge and policy support in sustaining farming activities. Higher education enhances farmers’ proficiency in modern agricultural techniques and management, as well as their appreciation of long-term agricultural returns, thereby decreasing abandonment propensity. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that higher education does not uniformly correlate with continued farming; some highly educated individuals may choose to abandon agriculture in favor of urban employment opportunities, reflecting a complex interplay between education, labor allocation, and farming decisions. Agricultural subsidies, serving as direct economic incentives, effectively alleviate production cost pressures and foster cultivation enthusiasm. Although policy awareness and household size exhibit negative correlations with abandonment, their statistical significance is weaker, possibly reflecting current limitations in policy dissemination and the nuanced influence of household labor structure. Land transfer did not demonstrate a significant effect, but the positive coefficient suggests that land transfer processes may be associated with increased abandonment risk in certain contexts. This underscores the need for further research to understand the conditions under which land market mechanisms influence land use decisions, and to refine policies that support effective and equitable land transfers.
4.6 Integrated policy recommendations for sustainable farmland management
Addressing farmland abandonment in the CCEC requires an integrated, multidimensional policy approach grounded in both empirical evidence and theoretical insight. In particular, we recommend piloting terraced-field mechanization adapted to hilly terrain, supported by subsidies aligned with national modernization goals. Improved subsidy schemes should be differentiated based on land characteristics and household demographics to optimize resource allocation and incentivize continued cultivation. Additionally, revitalizing the rural workforce through vocational training, entrepreneurship incentives, and infrastructure development must be complemented by educational outreach programs aimed at retaining younger, more educated residents within rural communities. Institutional reforms are also critical, including securing land tenure, enabling flexible land-use rights, and promoting cooperative or larger-scale farming models, especially in areas where traditional smallholder agriculture is becoming unsustainable. By implementing these targeted and context-specific interventions, the CCEC can more effectively curb farmland abandonment, safeguard food security, and enhance long-term rural resilience.