In recent years, the global fossil energy crisis has intensified, extreme weather events have occurred with increasing frequency, and the transformation of the energy structure toward cleaner and lower-carbon forms has become increasingly urgent. As two core pillars of the clean energy system, wind and photovoltaic power are being vigorously developed and promoted worldwide Figure 1 shows China's current energy structure. Although China entered the wind and photovoltaic industries relatively late, it has evolved from a technological follower to a global leader within just a few decades, becoming a main driving force in the energy system. Over the past decade, China’s newly installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has shown an overall upward trend (Figures 2, 3). By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power had reached 520.68 million kilowatts, while that of photovoltaic power had reached 886.66 million kilowatts (Liu et al., 2025). These remarkable achievements are inseparable from strong policy support and major breakthroughs in technological innovation. The phased development experience of the wind and photovoltaic industries offers valuable lessons for the full-cycle development of hydrogen energy.

Hydrogen, as an emerging energy source, possesses high energy density and excellent storability. Hydrogen production through water electrolysis can not only help alleviate the intermittency and uncertainty of wind and solar power generation and reduce the curtailment rate of new energy (Eladl et al., 2024), but can also enhance the power grid’s supporting capacity (Schmidt et al., 2017), long-term stability, and flexibility in the context of a new power system (Yang et al., 2025). By the end of 2024, China’s hydrogen production capacity had exceeded 50 million tons per year, with an annual hydrogen output exceeding 36.5 million tons. Hydrogen derived from fossil fuels continued to dominate the supply structure, accounting for approximately 77%, while hydrogen produced through water electrolysis represented only about 1% (Figure 4) (Energy Conservation and Science, 2025).

At present, China’s hydrogen energy industry faces multiple challenges (He and Shen, 2021):

Core technologies for hydrogen production via water electrolysis have yet to achieve major breakthroughs, and key components remain dependent on imports;

These challenges hinder large-scale hydrogen production in the upstream segment, increase costs in midstream storage and transportation, and place heavy burdens on downstream applications. Consequently, market activation is limited, forming a bottleneck in the overall development of China’s hydrogen energy industry.

The current stage of hydrogen energy development shows similarities to the early take-off period of the wind and solar energy industries. This article systematically reviews the development process and key policy experiences of China’s wind and solar sectors and applies benchmarking analysis to identify policy directions that the hydrogen energy industry can draw upon at different development stages. On this basis, a model is constructed to estimate the intensity of hydrogen energy policy subsidies. Using learning curve theory, different learning rate scenarios are set to calculate the cumulative installed capacity and the corresponding subsidy scale required to achieve the target cost of green hydrogen. Finally, through a comprehensive evaluation of the model results, this study provides a quantitative foundation and pathway recommendations for overcoming the initial bottlenecks of the hydrogen energy industry and formulating effective support policies.

The rapid rise and transformation of China’s wind and solar energy industries have attracted worldwide attention. From an early stage marked by dependence on foreign equipment, markets, and key raw materials, often described as “three external dependencies,” to becoming the world’s largest producer of wind and solar energy, this transformation has been driven by the coordinated advancement of policy, technology, and market forces (Yi et al., 2019). Reviewing the entire development trajectory of the wind and solar energy industries, their evolution can be broadly divided into four stages: the slow start-up period, the initial development period, the adjustment and fluctuation period, and the grid parity and expansion period.

The current vigorous growth of wind and solar energy is closely linked to scientific guidance and the strong promotion of national policies. Only by making correct choices at key nodes can leapfrog development be achieved, allowing the industries to avoid decades of exploratory detours.

The core experience of the slow start-up period can be summarized as “strategic planning anchors the direction, and policy subsidies drive localization.” In terms of policy, the issuance of the first Energy Policy Outline proposed a sixteen-character guideline for new energy: “act in accordance with local conditions, complement multiple energy sources, utilize comprehensively, and emphasize benefits.” This policy provided a fundamental framework for the scientific and orderly development of China’s wind and solar energy industries. Even when viewed against the current state of renewable energy development, its guiding principles remain applicable, reflecting its foresight and enduring value. During the Sixth Five-Year Plan, renewable energy was incorporated into the scope of the national energy policy, and wind and solar energy were designated as key development areas. In 1997, the Brightness Project was launched, and the government’s large-scale bidding and procurement of photovoltaic modules activated China’s early photovoltaic market and promoted coordinated industrial chain development. In the same year, the Wind Power Plan was implemented, promoting equipment localization through central financial subsidies and laying the foundation for the subsequent industrial boom. In 2003, the introduction of the wind power concession policy marked a shift from a planned to a market-oriented development model, effectively forcing developers to reduce construction and operation costs.

The core experience of the initial development period can be summarized as “legislation to guarantee industrial status, and five pillars to safeguard industrial development.” First, the total target system provided a clear top-level framework for industrial development. The 11th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development was the first to specify quantitative development targets, while the 12th Five-Year Plan further expanded these goals, effectively guiding social investment and setting the direction for industrial growth. Second, the full-guarantee purchase system was established to ensure the absorption of renewable energy power. Although the Renewable Energy Law of 2005 (Chai et al., 2023) first introduced the principle of full purchase, its implementation faced difficulties due to the absence of detailed supporting measures. Following the 2009 revision, the system was concretized and institutionalized, which significantly improved its operability and provided a legal guarantee for the stable revenue of wind and solar power stations. Third, the classified electricity pricing system guided the rational layout of the industry through differentiated pricing (Qiu and Anadon, 2012). In 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy dividing the country into four categories of wind energy resource zones and setting corresponding benchmark electricity prices. In 2013, it further defined photovoltaic benchmark prices for three types of solar energy resource areas (Yu-Ling Hsiao et al., 2021). This approach effectively mitigated cost disparities arising from differences in resource endowments and encouraged enterprises to pursue orderly and balanced development nationwide. Finally, the cost compensation system and special fund system jointly addressed the issue of economic incentives for industrial development. The cost compensation system relied on a renewable energy surcharge, collected from electricity sales, to subsidize the portion of wind and solar power generation costs exceeding the local coal-fired benchmark electricity price (Zhao et al., 2014). Furthermore, the special fund system (such as the Interim Measures for the Administration of Special Funds for Wind Power Equipment Industrialization issued in 2008) adopted an “award instead of subsidy” approach to support technological research and development (R&D) and industrialization among equipment manufacturers. This promoted both localization and cost reduction in core technologies. Together, these two systems, acting from the power generation and manufacturing ends, respectively, formed the core driving force behind the initial phase of industrial development.

The core experience of the structural adjustment period can be summarized as “promoting quality improvement and cost reduction through competitive pricing, and achieving grid parity through the gradual phase-out of subsidies.” In 2015, the National Energy Administration launched the Pioneer Program for photovoltaic power generation, which promoted technological upgrading and cost reduction in the photovoltaic industry by setting stringent technical indicators and introducing a market-oriented competition mechanism (Yu-Ling Hsiao et al., 2021). In 2016, the Pioneer Program for offshore wind power was introduced, aiming to advance technological progress and lower costs through the construction of a series of demonstration offshore wind power projects. In 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Actively Promoting Work Related to Grid Parity for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation without Subsidies, which explicitly called for the development of grid parity pilot projects and set the goal of achieving grid parity by 2021 (Tu et al., 2020).

The core experience of the parity maturity period can be summarized as “consolidating market space through consumption guarantees and addressing new challenges to promote high-quality development” (Wang et al., 2025). In 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Establishing and Improving the Renewable Energy Power Consumption Guarantee Mechanism, which set minimum renewable energy consumption responsibility weights to promote the development of wind and solar energy. In June 2022, the 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development was issued, launching the Thousands of Towns and Tens of Thousands of Villages Wind Control Action to vigorously promote rural wind power development. At the same time, it introduced the Thousands of Households Sunshine Action to expand the comprehensive utilization of renewable energy in rural areas, promote the deployment of wind and solar projects in rural regions, and contribute to rural revitalization. On 30 May 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Matters Concerning the Orderly Promotion of the Development of Direct Green Power Connection, which, for the first time, established a national-level regulatory framework for the direct green power supply and consumption model. This policy aims to promote the local consumption of new energy and meet the green energy demands of enterprises, and holds significant importance for maintaining stable economic growth and achieving high-quality development.

The success of China’s wind and solar energy industries is by no means accidental; it represents the comprehensive result of policy wisdom, technological resilience, and industrial perseverance. Their core experience can be summarized as follows: leveraging policy instruments to drive technological innovation, using market scale to dilute R&D costs, building a competitive moat through a complete industrial chain, and integrating into the global ecosystem with an open attitude. This development model, characterized by “government guidance, enterprise leadership, market operation, and global collaboration,” offers valuable insights and references for the initiation and development of China’s hydrogen energy industry. Table 1 shows the policy experiences from the wind and solar energy industries that the hydrogen energy industry can learn from.

According to the data released in the Statistical Communiqué on National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China for 2024 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2025), China’s total energy consumption in 2024 was 5.96 billion tons of standard coal. Combined with an annual hydrogen production of 36.5 million tons (Energy Conservation and Science, 2025) (equivalent to approximately 151 million tons of standard coal), the penetration rate of hydrogen energy can be estimated at about 3.0%. This penetration level indicates that the hydrogen energy industry remains in its embryonic stage. Drawing on the key policy experiences of the wind and solar energy industries analyzed through benchmarking in the previous chapter, it can be concluded that at the current stage, subsidy policies are essential to promote the localization of electrolyzers, thereby achieving the objectives of cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

Based on the estimation results of hydrogen energy subsidy-related parameters under different learning rate scenarios presented in Section 3.2, it can be observed that the learning rate directly influences the resource input and time frame required to achieve the target cost of green hydrogen (15 yuan/kg). The relationships among these three factors (learning rate, resource input, and time cycle) show significant negative correlations.

Low learning rate (8%) scenario: Under this scenario, the cumulative installed capacity required to reach the target cost is 1,145.44 GW, with a total subsidy amount reaching 6.23 trillion yuan. The industrial scaling process is relatively slow, and the efficiency of core technological breakthroughs and cost reduction remains low. This situation not only results in long-term fiscal pressure from high subsidy expenditures but may also delay the substitution process of green hydrogen for traditional energy sources. The imbalance between input and output makes it difficult for the industry’s development pace to align with the zero-carbon energy transition required to achieve the dual-carbon goals.

Based on the analysis of these three scenarios, the following conclusions can be drawn regarding the necessity of establishing subsidy policies for the hydrogen energy industry at the current stage.

This article systematically reviewed the key experiences of China’s wind power and photovoltaic industries in terms of policy guidance, technological innovation, and market cultivation, and applied a benchmarking approach to propose development paths that the hydrogen energy industry can draw upon. Building on the experience that subsidy policies played a crucial role in enabling the rapid take-off of the wind and solar industries, a model for estimating the intensity of hydrogen energy policy subsidies was constructed. Using the learning curve theory, the cumulative installed capacity and the total subsidy scale required to reduce the cost of green hydrogen to 15 yuan/kg were calculated under different learning rate scenarios.

The results indicate that under the benchmark learning rate scenario (18%), the cumulative new installed capacity would be approximately 15.29 GW, with a total subsidy of about 83.4 billion yuan. This represents a feasible pathway for the large-scale development of green hydrogen and a rapid reduction in costs. The study further suggests that, at the current stage, targeted subsidy policies should be implemented to break the initial “high cost–low scale” dilemma, with priority given to supporting the localization of key equipment such as electrolyzers. Additionally, it is essential to improve the supporting systems for green hydrogen standards, strengthen international cooperation mechanisms, and promote the implementation of demonstration projects. Ultimately, through a virtuous cycle of “policy leverage–technological breakthroughs–market expansion,” China’s hydrogen energy industry can achieve high-quality, large-scale development and provide strong support for the realization of the dual-carbon goals.