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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Energy Res.</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Energy Research</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Energy Res.</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2296-598X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">858518</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/fenrg.2022.858518</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Energy Research</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Grey Wolf Optimization&#x2013;Based Deep Echo State Network for Time Series Prediction</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Chen and Zhang</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">GWO Based DeepESN</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Xiaojuan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001">&#x2a;</xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1602626/overview"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Haiyang</given-names>
</name>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1385146/overview"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff>
<institution>School of Electronic Information Engineering</institution>, <institution>Changchun University of Science and Technology</institution>, <addr-line>Changchun</addr-line>, <country>China</country>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="c001">&#x2a;Correspondence: Xiaojuan Chen, <email>cxj001@cust.edu.cn</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="other">
<p>This article was submitted to Smart Grids, a section of the journal <italic>Frontiers in Energy Research</italic>
</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Edited by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1381900/overview">Yusen He</ext-link>, Grinnell College, United States</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Reviewed by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1647549/overview">Rui Yin</ext-link>, Dalian University of Technology, China</p>
<p>
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1647531/overview">GL Feng</ext-link>, Dalian University of Technology, China</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ecorrected">
<day>09</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<elocation-id>858518</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>21</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>01</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2022</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#xa9; 2022 Chen and Zhang.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Chen and Zhang</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.</p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>The Echo State Network (ESN) is a unique type of recurrent neural network. It is built atop a reservoir, which is a sparse, random, and enormous hidden infrastructure. ESN has been successful in dealing with a variety of non-linear issues, including prediction and classification. ESN is utilized in a variety of architectures, including the recently proposed Multi-Layer (ML) architecture. Furthermore, Deep Echo State Network (DeepESN) models, which are multi-layer ESN models, have recently been proved to be successful at predicting high-dimensional complicated non-linear processes. The proper configuration of DeepESN architectures and training parameters is a time-consuming and difficult undertaking. To achieve the lowest learning error, a variety of parameters (hidden neurons, input scaling, the number of layers, and spectral radius) are carefully adjusted. However, the optimum training results may not be guaranteed by this haphazardly created work. The grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is introduced in this study to address these concerns. The DeepESN based on GWO (GWODESN) is utilized in trials to forecast time series, and therefore the results are compared with the regular ESN, LSTM, and ELM models. The findings indicate that the planned model performs the best in terms of prediction.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>time series prediction</kwd>
<kwd>deep echo state network</kwd>
<kwd>grey wolf optimization</kwd>
<kwd>network structure optimization</kwd>
<kwd>combined cycle power plant</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<counts>
<page-count count="9"/>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s1">
<title>1 Introduction</title>
<p>Time series appear in every facet of life, and one of the current research topics is time series forecasting. Time series prediction may be aided by the development of new methodologies. The time series, on the other hand, is frequently created by a chaotic system and is untidy or non-linear. As a result, time-series forecasting research is extremely difficult. Furthermore, time series prediction requires models with high prediction accuracy.</p>
<p>Over the two past decades, several researchers proposed various models for time series forecasting that involve scientific prediction based on historical time-stamped data. Among these researchers, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Liu (2017)</xref> presented a time-series prediction approach based on an online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM). This approach was later updated to include an adaptive forgetting factor and a bootstrap to improve the prediction accuracy and stability. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">Guo et al. (2016)</xref> used differential evolution (DE) to optimize the model parameters in an efficient extreme learning machine (EELM) that is utilized to anticipate chaotic time series. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Lukoseviciute et al. (2018)</xref> used evolutionary algorithms and Bernstein polynomials to develop a short-term time-series prediction model. For chaotic time series, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Ma et al. (2004)</xref> suggested a mixed model based on neural networks and wavelets. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Milad et al. (2017)</xref> proposed a model of adaptive decayed brain emotional learning (ADBEL) to better handle online forecasting of time series through a neuro-fuzzy network architecture. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Miranian and Abdollahzade (2013)</xref> proposed a local neuro-fuzzy (LNF) scheme combined with least-square support vector machines (LSSVMs) for non-linear and chaotic modeling and forecasting. Tang et al. (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">2020</xref>) proposed a LSSVM model to model NOx emissions. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Chai and Lim (2016)</xref> constructed a discriminative model of a neural network architecture equipped with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM) for identifying patterns of economic time series. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">Li et al. (2016)</xref> proposed an adaptive Volterra-type prediction model with matrix factorization for chaotic time-series analysis. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Su and Yang (2021)</xref> proposed a brain emotional network in conjunction with an adaptive genetic algorithm (BEN-AGA) model for predicting time series of chaotic behavior. Nevertheless, the aforementioned methods have several limitations. First, an adequate structure must be pre-specified for the conventional neural networks, and the convergence rate of these networks is slow. Also, the ELM method exhibits weak generalization and robustness. Also, the LSSVM method is greatly affected by time delays.</p>
<p>Recently, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been introduced to handle problems with temporal dynamics. The RNN architectures have been successfully utilized for time-series detection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Li et al., 2021a</xref>) and forecasting (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Li et al., 2021b</xref>). However, the overall RNN weights should be learned through backpropagation, and this imposes a significant computational burden. To enhance the operational efficiency, Echo State Networks (ESNs) were proposed by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">Jaeger and Haas (2004)</xref> as a novel RNN variant that can be efficiently utilized for time series forecasting. For example, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">Han et al. (2021)</xref> proposed an optimized ESN model with adaptive error compensation for network traffic prediction. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">Liu et al. (2020)</xref> proposed a hybrid time-series prediction approach with the binary grey wolf algorithm and echo state networks (BGWO-ESN). Beyond time series forecasting, the echo state networks have also been applied in other problems, including mainly classification (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">Stefenon et al., 2022</xref>), detection (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">Steiner et al., 2021</xref>), and image segmentation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">Abdelkerim et al., 2020</xref>). However, the conventional ESN architectures still lack the ability to handle complicated tasks. To address this limitation, a DeepESN model is introduced in this paper, where a grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is used to optimize the DeepESN model parameters. Our proposed DeepESN architecture is evaluated on the Lorenz system, the Mackey&#x2013;Glass (MG) model, and the non-linear autoregressive moving average (NARMA) model. The proposed method was evaluated with a real-time series representing full-load electrical power outputs. The simulations demonstrate promising performance of the proposed forecasting strategy.</p>
<p>The main contributions of this paper are highlighted as follows: first, the effort made in the paper represents one of the first few attempts to construct DeepESN to forecast times series. Then, compared with ESN, LSTM, and ELM models, the proposed GWODESN outperforms in terms of forecast accuracy.</p>
<p>The remainder of this work is arranged as follows. A detailed overview of the DeepESN and GWO algorithms is presented in <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s2">Section 2</xref>, while <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s3">Section 3</xref> provides the details of the proposed GWODESN model. The simulation outcomes are analyzed in <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s4">Section 4</xref>. Then, <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s5">Section 5</xref> gives final conclusions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2">
<title>2 Methodology</title>
<sec id="s2-1">
<title>2.1 Deep Echo State Networks</title>
<p>Following the conventional ESN model, the DeepESN model is made up of multiple dynamical reservoir components. Specifically, the DeepESN reservoir is organized into stacked recurrent layers. For each layer, the output is the input of the next layer, as outlined in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Gallicchio and Micheli, 2017</xref>). In our work, <italic>NU</italic> indicates the number of the input measurements, <italic>NL</italic> indicates the reservoir layer count, <italic>NR</italic> denotes the number of the recurrent units, and <italic>t</italic> indicates time. Moreover, <italic>u</italic>(<italic>t</italic>) denotes the model input at time <italic>t</italic>, whereas x<sup>
<italic>(i</italic>)</sup>(<italic>t)</italic> represents the state for the <italic>ith</italic> reservoir layer at time <italic>t</italic>. The DeepESN reservoir dynamics are mathematically modeled as follows. The dynamics of the primary DeepESN layer can be expressed as<disp-formula id="e1">
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<fig id="F1" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Architecture of a DeepESN.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>When <italic>i</italic> &#x3e; 1, the DeepESN state is computed as<disp-formula id="e2">
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</sec>
<sec id="s2-2">
<title>2.2 Grey Wolf Optimizer</title>
<p>GWO could be a nature-inspired algorithm that imitates the chain of command of administration and daily routine (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">Mirjalili et al., 2014</xref>). The wolves have four conceivable sorts: alpha, beta, delta, or omega. The pioneers of the pack (called alphas), which may be recognized by the leading administration abilities instead of the most grounded body, make choices almost every day exercises for the whole pack. The beta wolf helps alpha to make a choice. The omega wolf position is most reduced among wolves, but it plays a key part in keeping up a prevailing structure. The delta wolf is auxiliary to the alpha and beta, but it has the upper hand over the omega within the previously mentioned chain of command. The GWO algorithm can be mathematically represented as follows:<disp-formula id="e3">
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</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s3">
<title>3 Grey Wolf Optimizer&#x2013;Based Deep Echo State Network</title>
<p>As the same as simple ESN model, we must appropriately indicate network parameters of DeepESN for getting palatable results. We might rehash the tests trusting to secure great plan scenarios. Be that as it may, we can never be sure that the best solution has been achieved. To address it, the GWO algorithm ought to be utilized to optimize a couple of parameters including <italic>NR</italic>, <italic>NL</italic>, <italic>&#x3c1;</italic>, and <italic>IR</italic>. The spectral radius <italic>&#x3c1;</italic> is one in all the foremost central parameters characterizing the reservoir&#x2019;s weight matrix W. And to take care of the echo state property (ESP), <italic>&#x3c1;</italic> should be scaled to equal or less than one<italic>.</italic> <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2</xref> shows a flowchart of the proposed GWODESN. The following steps depict the particular modeling strategy:</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 2</label>
<caption>
<p>A flowchart of the proposed modeling approach.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_1">
<label>Step 1</label>
<p>Read time series file as the input data.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_2">
<label>Step 2</label>
<p>Initialize the GWO algorithm containing the a, A, and C.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_3">
<label>Step 3</label>
<p>Set initial population representing <italic>NR</italic>, <italic>NL</italic>, <italic>&#x3c1;</italic>, and <italic>IR</italic>.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_4">
<label>Step 4</label>
<p>Use initial population to establish the DeepESN model.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_5">
<label>Step 5</label>
<p>Calculate the mean absolute error of various population as the corresponding fitness value.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_6">
<label>Step 6</label>
<p>Obtain initial optimum value having least fitness values in population.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_7">
<label>Step 7</label>
<p>If the fitness value obtained meets the accuracy requirements of the model, skip to Step 9. Something else, proceed.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_8">
<label>Step 8</label>
<p>Update the population applying <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e9">Eq. 9</xref>, the number of iterations <italic>t</italic> &#x3d; <italic>t</italic>&#x2b;1, and then return to Step 4.</p>
</statement>
</p>
<p>
<statement content-type="step" id="Step_9">
<label>Step 9</label>
<p>Output the best <italic>NR</italic>, <italic>NL</italic>, <italic>&#x3c1;</italic>, and <italic>IR</italic>.</p>
</statement>
</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s4">
<title>4 Experimental Setup, Results, and Discussion</title>
<p>In this pondering, three benchmark datasets and one real-world illustration are embraced to confirm the execution of diverse models. One-step ahead expectation is examined in this segment. To assess the created demonstration, 4 standard records (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">Tang et al., 2020</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Li et al., 2021a</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Li et al., 2021b</xref>) including the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (<italic>R</italic>
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<label>(12)</label>
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<label>(13)</label>
</disp-formula>Within the equations, <italic>M</italic> is utilized to represent sample size, <inline-formula id="inf4">
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</inline-formula> to represent the forecast value. All experiments were carried out in MATLAB on a Windows 10 operating system, with a 2.50-GHz Intel CPU, and a memory of 8.0&#xa0;GB. The performance outcomes of our approach were compared with those based on the conventional ESN, ELM, and LSTM architectures.</p>
<sec id="s4-1">
<title>4.1 Lorenz System</title>
<p>The Lorenz dynamical system (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Wu et al., 2021</xref>) is a key benchmark of time series forecasting and is mathematically defined as<disp-formula id="e14">
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<label>(14)</label>
</disp-formula>where <italic>t</italic> expresses time, while the model coefficients <italic>a</italic>, <italic>b</italic>, and <italic>c</italic> are respectively chosen as 10, 28, and 8/3. Model training and testing were carried out with time series lengths of 4,000 and 1,000, respectively. For <italic>x</italic>-dimensional forecasting, past information of <italic>x(t &#x2212;1)</italic>, <italic>y(t &#x2212;1)</italic>, and <italic>z(t &#x2212;1)</italic> is utilized in the prediction of the present <italic>x(t)</italic> values. In the arrangement to assess the viability and preferences of this proposed GWODESN, the conventional ESN, ELM, and the LSTM are chosen as benchmarks. The real value and the anticipated value of GWODESN, ESN, ELM, and the LSTM to begin with appeared in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3</xref>, and the prediction accuracy is recorded in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table 1</xref>. It is clear that GWODESN is superior than others, showing the adequacy of this approach. In expansion, the yield of ELM cannot coordinate the real esteem, particularly at a few emphasis focuses. It moreover outlines the justification of RNN. The expectation mistakes of GWODESN, ESN, ELM, and the LSTM are advance compared in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref>. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref> shows the box graph of absolute error recorded for 30 runs of diverse models. It can be seen that the GWODESN shows superior prediction accuracy and solidness than other models. The absolute error box graph of the ELM model is long, and it is known that the maximum error values are scattered, showing that the forecast performance of the ELM model is not as steady as in other models. The box chart of the GWODESN model is the most brief. Most of the absolute error values are smaller than other comparison models. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure 5</xref> gives the relative error distribution of the testing information by the GWODESN. Among the 1,000 testing cases, 93.3% of the relative errors were less than 1%. In general, the prediction accuracy of the GWODESN model is relatively high and relatively stable. In common, the expectation precision of the GWODESN model is moderately high and generally steady.</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 3</label>
<caption>
<p>The real value and the anticipated value for Lorenz x(<italic>t</italic>).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g003.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="T1" position="float">
<label>TABLE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>The performance comparison of GWODESN, ESN, ELM, and the LSTM for Lorenz x(<italic>t</italic>)</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Model</th>
<th align="center">MAPE</th>
<th align="center">MAE</th>
<th align="center">RMSE</th>
<th align="center">
<italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">GWODESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.00010737</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.008402</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.012598</td>
<td align="char" char=".">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0018053</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.099649</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.22953</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.99923</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">LSTM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.028958</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.36154</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.55374</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.99758</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ELM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.17571</td>
<td align="char" char=".">1.0301</td>
<td align="char" char=".">1.3047</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.977</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<fig id="F4" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 4</label>
<caption>
<p>The absolute error box diagram for Lorenz x(<italic>t</italic>).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g004.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F5" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 5</label>
<caption>
<p>Relative error distribution for Lorenz x(<italic>t</italic>).</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g005.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s4-2">
<title>4.2 NARMA system</title>
<p>NARMA (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Chouikhi et al., 2017</xref>), which is featured with a very high rate of chaos in its behavior, could also be an accepted studied benchmark. The flow of this benchmark is produced by <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e15">Eq. 15</xref>:<disp-formula id="e15">
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<label>(15)</label>
</disp-formula>where <italic>y(t)</italic> and <italic>x(t)</italic> are the output and input of the system at time <italic>t</italic>, separately. The consistent c is set as 0.3, 0.05, 1.5, and 0.1, separately. The <italic>k</italic>, which decides the intricacy of NARMA, is set to 10. As the same as the past simulation, the real value and the anticipated value of GWODESN are shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure 6</xref>, and the desired precision is recorded in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T2">Table 2</xref>. It is evident that GWODESN can fit the real value ideally. The desired values of GWODESN, ESN, ELM, and the LSTM are developed and compared in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7</xref>. It can be seen in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure 7</xref> that the GWODESN appears to have a more predominant estimate precision and solidness than other models. The absolute error box plot of the ELM is relatively long, and it is known that its significant error values are scattered. This indicates that the performance of the ELM is not as stable as other models. The box chart of the GWODESN is the shortest. Most of the absolute error values of GWODESN are smaller than those of other comparison models. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8</xref> gives the relative error dispersion of the testing data by the GWODESN. Among the 1,000 testing cases, 90.1% of the relative error distribution were less than 3.5% as appeared in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure 8</xref>.</p>
<fig id="F6" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 6</label>
<caption>
<p>The real value and the anticipated value for NARMA.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g006.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="T2" position="float">
<label>TABLE 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Prediction performance comparison for NARMA</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Model</th>
<th align="center">MAPE</th>
<th align="center">MAE</th>
<th align="center">RMSE</th>
<th align="center">
<italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">GWODESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.016684</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.006208</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0078925</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.99487</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.067969</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.024812</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.031407</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.91423</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">LSTM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.13112</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.052137</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.067306</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.66642</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ELM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.19488</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.072871</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.093292</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.24624</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<fig id="F7" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 7</label>
<caption>
<p>The absolute error box diagram for NARMA.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g007.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F8" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 8</label>
<caption>
<p>Relative error distribution for NARMA.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g008.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s4-3">
<title>4.3 Mackey&#x2013;Glass System</title>
<p>The MG (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Mackey and Glass, 1977</xref>) may be a normal chaotic framework, which is known by its non-linear behavior. Thus, learning the patterns appears to be a challenging task. It is portrayed by <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e16">Eq. 16</xref>.<disp-formula id="e16">
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<mml:mi>&#x3c4;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is a vital parameter of the MG system, which is regularly set to 17. In total, 4,000 tests were utilized as training data sets and 1,000 tests were utilized for testing. The forecast that comes about from the proposed GWODESN model appears in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9">Figure 9</xref> and <xref ref-type="table" rid="T3">Table 3</xref>. The conventionally used ESN has superior prediction performance to ELM and LSTM, and can fit the original industrial time series data well. Be that as it may, the performance of the GWODESN is superior to that of the conventional ESN. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10">Figure 10</xref> shows that the GWODESN has superior forecast precision and soundness to other models. Among the 1,000 testing cases, 99% of the relative mistakes were less than 1% in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F11">Figure 11</xref>.</p>
<fig id="F9" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 9</label>
<caption>
<p>The real value and the anticipated value for MG.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g009.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="T3" position="float">
<label>TABLE 3</label>
<caption>
<p>Prediction performance comparison for MG</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Model</th>
<th align="center">MAPE</th>
<th align="center">MAE</th>
<th align="center">RMSE</th>
<th align="center">
<italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">GWODESN</td>
<td align="center">1.52E&#x2212;06</td>
<td align="center">1.34E&#x2212;06</td>
<td align="center">8.74E&#x2212;06</td>
<td align="char" char=".">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ESN</td>
<td align="center">0.0022983</td>
<td align="center">0.0019566</td>
<td align="center">0.0023502</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.99989</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">LSTM</td>
<td align="center">0.049911</td>
<td align="center">0.047476</td>
<td align="center">0.059318</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.96962</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ELM</td>
<td align="center">0.035191</td>
<td align="center">0.029265</td>
<td align="center">0.03455</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.97677</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<fig id="F10" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 10</label>
<caption>
<p>The absolute error box diagram for MG.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g010.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F11" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 11</label>
<caption>
<p>Relative error distribution for MG.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g011.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s4-4">
<title>4.4 Combined Cycle Power Plants</title>
<p>CCPPs generally contain steam turbines (STs) and gas turbines (GTs), as well as heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs). For a CCPP, power generation is jointly performed by the steam and gas turbines, and is exchanged between each turbine and the others (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">T&#xfc;fekci, 2014</xref>). Here, we use CCPP data to evaluate the single-step prediction performance. The utilized dataset includes four input factors and one target variable, where this dataset was collected from 2006 to 2011. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F12">Figure 12</xref> outlines both the GWODESN-predicted and measured electrical power outputs. The specked reddish straight line represents the ideal relationship of the predicted and measured values. The blue line demonstrates the GWODESN predicted outcomes. Almost all of the predictions are scattered around the ideal line. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F13">Figure 13</xref> gives the relative error distribution of the GWODESN model on the test data. Among the 1,000 test samples, 90.3% of the relative errors are less than 1.6%. Obviously, the GWODESN model outperforms the other three competing models. The adequacy of the proposed model is shown by the results in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T4">Table 4</xref>.</p>
<fig id="F12" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 12</label>
<caption>
<p>Scatter diagram of the real value and the anticipated value for CCPP.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g012.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F13" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 13</label>
<caption>
<p>Relative error distribution for CCPP.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="fenrg-10-858518-g013.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="T4" position="float">
<label>TABLE 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Prediction performance comparison for CCPP</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Model</th>
<th align="center">MAPE</th>
<th align="center">MAE</th>
<th align="center">RMSE</th>
<th align="center">
<italic>R</italic>
<sup>2</sup>
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">GWODESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0071209</td>
<td align="char" char=".">3.2268</td>
<td align="char" char=".">4.1052</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.93981</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ESN</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0078012</td>
<td align="char" char=".">3.5345</td>
<td align="char" char=".">4.4278</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.93013</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">LSTM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0085425</td>
<td align="char" char=".">3.8767</td>
<td align="char" char=".">4.9317</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.91412</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">ELM</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.0079702</td>
<td align="char" char=".">3.6098</td>
<td align="char" char=".">4.4885</td>
<td align="char" char=".">0.92832</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s5">
<title>5 Conclusion</title>
<p>In this paper, the GWODESN is created for time series expectation. The four primary parameters of the DESN were optimized by utilizing the GWO algorithm. Four ordinary time series, counting Lorenz, MG, NARMA, and CCPP, are chosen as the simulation objects. Comparative tests conducted on four time-series forecasting tasks clearly illustrate that the proposed GWODESN outperforms the ELM, LSTM, and ESN benchmarks, especially in terms of prediction accuracy and stability. The proposed prediction strategy is basic and effective, and has certain theoretical significance and practical value for the optimization of time-series prediction models. Hyper-parameter optimization and the topology of the networks are all the common optimization strategies. In the future, we will center on improving the network topology of the GWODESN and apply the model in other domains, such as wind energy prediction and photovoltaic power forecasting.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<sec id="s6">
<title>Data Availability Statement</title>
<p>The raw data supporting the conclusion of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s7">
<title>Author Contributions</title>
<p>XC designed the research and the article structure, and revised the article. HZ carried out the experiments and revised the article.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="s8">
<title>Conflict of Interest</title>
<p>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="correction-note" id="s9">
<title>Correction Note</title>
<p>A correction has been made to this article. Details can be found at: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2026.1770773">10.3389/fenrg.2026.1770773</ext-link>.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s10">
<title>Publisher&#x2019;s Note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
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