As an ecosystem is the basis for human survival and development, maintaining ecosystem health is crucial for ensuring human health (Zeng et al., 1999; Ma et al., 2001). Scientific ecological risk management to maintain ecosystem health is a prerequisite for the harmonious development of human beings and the nature (Peng et al., 2007; Peng et al., 2015; Sahraoui et al., 2021). To effectively avoid, proactively adapt to, and comprehensively manage the ecological risk of a region and achieve the purpose of scientific management of regional ecological risk, a scientific and accurate evaluation of the ecological risk of a region from the perspective of the coupling of human beings and nature is essential (Cao and Shen, 1991; Huang et al., 2022). Ecological risk assessment serves as a basis for different environmental aspects such as ecological construction and environmental restoration, and its accuracy can have a direct impact on the management of regional ecological risks (Yang et al., 2007; Ayre and Landis, 2012). With the development of landscape ecology spatial heterogeneity and landscape pattern research in regional studies, and the continuous combination with ecological risk assessment, landscape ecological risk assessment has emerged (Zhang et al., 2012; Gong et al., 2020). Landscape ecological risk evaluation involves the analysis of correlation between landscape ecological processes and spatial patterns, providing a comprehensive description of multiple ecological risks in a region and facilitating spatial visualization, which constitutes a major branch of ecological risk evaluation on the regional scale (Qiu et al., 2007; Qiao et al., 2021; Rosero et al., 2023). Landscape ecological risk analysis not only highlights the influence of landscape pattern on ecological processes and ecological functions but also emphasizes the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of ecological risks and scale effects, thereby providing a theoretical basis for decision-making in regional integrated risk management (Peng et al., 2007; Ai et al., 2022).

Scholars in different research areas have conducted the landscape ecological risk assessments based on their evaluation purposes, related evaluation indicators, and method models (Peng et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2022). The primary evaluation targets are administrative regions and urban areas, followed by areas with intense anthropogenic activities and ecologically sensitive areas, including river basins (Liu et al., 2016; Cao et al., 2018), coastal areas (Chen et al., 2021), mining areas (Zhou et al., 2018), cities (Fang et al., 2014; Li et al., 2019), and wetlands (Zhang et al., 2019; Lou et al., 2020). Entropy method, comprehensive index method, model method(Chen and Li, 2017), and exposure-response method (Zhang et al., 2016) are the commonly employed evaluation methods.

Karst area is one of the main ecologically sensitive zones in the world, and the study of its ecological environment is a popular topic in geoscience research (Yuan, 1997; Yuan, 2001). Southwest China exhibits the most concentrated karst distribution in the world. Because of the low soil-making and surface water-holding capacity of karst, in addition to the large population, less available land, contradictions between humans and environment, expansion of cities, and unreasonable utilization of resources, the ecological environment in southwest China has degraded considerably, resulting in the prominence of environmental problems such as rocky desertification (Cai, 1996; Chen, 2017). The ecosystem in karst area is complex and sensitive; thus, evaluating the landscape ecological risk in this area can provide valuable insights for implementing preventive measures. Shilin World Geopark, located at the center of southwest karst area, is the only karst landform scenic spot in the subtropical plateau mountainous area in the world. It was listed in the first batch of national geoparks in 2001, and in 2007, it was designated as the ‘Karst in South China’ heritage site and included in the World Heritage List by UNESCO.

Considering Shilin World Geopark as the research area, this study uses the related theories of landscape ecology. Based on GIS and RS technologies and using Landsat remote sensing images from 2000 to 2020 as the main data source, the present study analyses the spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern. The findings of this study provide scientific insights for understanding the spatial distribution characteristics and changing rules of landscape ecological risks in Shilin World Geopark and constructing a landscape ecological risk evaluation model, thereby providing a scientific basis for park ecological risk management.

Shilin World Geopark exhibits almost all karst forms in the world, which is of high value for geological research due to the antiquity, complexity, multi-phase, and diversity of karst development and evolution (Chen, 2018; Chen et al., 2018), the study results of the research on landscape pattern change and landscape ecological risk are of great significance for maintaining the ecosystem health of the geopark and optimizing the ecological risk management of the park. And this study did not quantitatively analyze the factors affecting regional landscape ecological risk, such as human activities and the economy, due to data collection, etc., and the authors will conduct a more in-depth investigation of the mechanisms affecting landscape ecological risk in a subsequent study.

Shilin World Geopark is located in Shilin Yi Autonomous County (referred to as ‘Shilin County’ in text), which is 76 km away from Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province. It is located between 103°16′ 43″-103°28′ 28″ east longitude and 24°56′ 47″-24°37′ 30″ north latitude ( Figure 1 ), including Shilin town and lake-town, both of which fall under the jurisdiction of Shilin County. The park covers the whole area of Shilin County, spanning approximately 35.7 km from north to south and 19.8 km from east to west, with a total area of approximately 369.4 km². The terrain generally inclines downward from the east to the west, with an altitude between 1650 m and 2201 m. This area is characterized by diverse karst landforms including mainly karst hills and depressions and Shilin landforms (Liu, 2020). Owing to its low latitude, the park falls in the monsoon climate zone of the subtropical plateau, with nearly equal periods of rain and heat, and the annual average temperature and rainfall are 16°C and 939.5 mm, respectively. The water area system in the park comprises a surface water area and underground river, named the Nanpan River basin. The main soil types are red soil, yellow brown soil, purple soil, impact soil, and paddy soil. The region has unique karst features, with a thin soil cover and exposed bedrock in most areas.

Landscape ecological risk analysis integrates many factors, rather than being a single-factor process. Based on the landscape pattern index, this study constructed a landscape ERI model to quantitatively analyze the landscape ecological risk of Shilin World Geopark. The study findings provide valuable insights into the ecological environment problems of Shilin World Geopark and guidance for the sustainable development and scientific management of the park. Five remote sensing images during the period 2000–2020 were used to examine the landscape pattern changes and spatial–temporal characteristics of landscape ecological risks in Shilin World Geopark. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Cultivated land, forest land, and rocky desertification land are the main landscape types of Shilin World Geopark. Among these, the areas of cultivated land and forest land have decreased, whereas those of water area, rocky desertification land, and building land have increased, and the grassland landscape area exhibits marked fluctuations. (2) Spatial differences of the landscape ecological risks in Shilin World Geopark have been obvious. High and higher-risk grade areas were concentrated mainly in the north-central part of the park, with some distributed in the south, whereas low and lower-risk grade areas were mainly distributed in the southwest-southeast area of the park. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the landscape ecological risk of Shilin World Geopark showed an overall increasing trend, and its landscape ecological risk degree showed a positive spatial correlation.

As a typical area in the highland mountain karst region, Shilin World Geopark has a highly fragile ecosystem, which, together with the interference of human activities, contributes to an increase in its landscape ecological risk. Due to the aggravation of problems such as rocky desertification, with the increase in the level of tourism development in the park as well as the influence of anthropogenic factors on the regional landscape, the frequency and intensity of the transformation of landscape types of Shilin World Geopark have increased. These problems have also led to an increase in the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of its landscape pattern and intensified the ecological risk of the landscape. The southwest–southeast zone of the park, where the forest land landscapes exhibit a concentrated distribution, has a small degree of landscape separation, fragility, and loss, which contributes to a reduction in the degree of landscape ecological risk of Shilin World Geopark. During the study period, the local management department implemented various rocky desertification control projects including “artificial afforestation of barren mountains,” “artificial afforestation of sloping cultivated land,” “forestation,” and “grass-fed animal husbandry project,” which led to a reduction in the cultivated land area in the park, except for the permanent basic cultivated land area. In addition, the forest land area underwent constant changes under the double influence of human interference and rocky desertification land, all of which played a pivotal role in changing the ecological risk of the park’s landscape. Some studies have shown that although the landscape of construction land has a low landscape ecological risk, the increase in the area of construction land landscape increases the landscape ecological risk of the surrounding area due to a high level of human activities around the construction land (Fang et al., 2014). The data also showed that rocky desertification land and grasslands exhibited high vulnerability and loss. Additionally, rocky desertification landscape has been the dominant landscape type in the park, contributing to the ecological risk of park landscape and resulting in the increased landscape ecological risk in Shilin World Geopark.

Relevant departments should scientifically plan the development and utilization of land resources in the Shilin World Geopark, and in the future, priority should be given to the protection of its ecological environment as far as possible by minimizing the damage caused by human activities. Moreover, the development and construction of the park should be based on the ecosystem carrying capacity of the park itself. It will require the planners and builders of the park to fully understand and recognize the ecological potential of the park and then implement the ecological development law to ensure that the Geopark’s land resources can be scientifically and reasonably planned, developed, and utilized, and the development of the tourism construction of the Shilin World Geopark can be coordinated with the ecological protection of the park.

To reduce the ecological risk of the park with future development and construction, based on the results of the landscape ecological risk analysis of the study area, this study proposes the following countermeasures for the maintenance and operation management of the Shilin World Geopark:

(1) In the arable land management planning, relevant departments should focus on protecting arable land and the permanent basic cultivated land; for example, if there is a need to withdraw from the area of permanent basic cultivated land within the Shilin World Geopark, the replenishment of Shilin County in the county administrative area should be optimized, and if it is not possible to replenish the county administrative area, the municipal administrative area in Kunming should be replenished; use of the barren or unused areas of cultivated land for construction purpose, as well as the change of the use of arable land for the construction of villages and townships should be prohibited; and other specific measures should be implemented for the protection of arable land.

(2) Within the scope of Shilin World Geopark, forest land is mainly used to provide forestry production, ecological environmental protection, and related services. Therefore, in the park’s forest land management planning, it is necessary to implement suitable measures such as prohibiting unauthorized transformation of forestry land, obtaining approval of the relevant management departments and management methods prior to using the land, prohibiting other land use from arbitrarily occupying forest land as well as indiscriminate logging and destruction of forests, and prohibiting all kinds of construction to take up soil and water conservation forests and water conservation forests as well as other protective forests. To reduce the vulnerability of the ecosystem of the park, appropriate measures should be taken to continuously improve the quality of forest land in the park, increase the proportion of forest land area in the total area of the park, and increase the percentage of forest cover in the park.

(3) The management of building land in the park should be formulated in strict accordance with the relevant national regulations, and the relevant departments should strictly control the scale of each building land, fully utilize the existing building land and vacant land, and revitalize the stock of land. Any unit or individual occupying land, constructing houses, or other works in the park should be examined, and approval of the management organization of Shilin World Geopark should be obtained according to the relevant regulations.

(4) The utilization of water should also be strictly controlled within the scope of Shilin World Geopark, and the Water Law, the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Law, and other regulations should be implemented to strengthen the management and protection of rivers and lakes such as Yunhu Lake, Heilongtan, Bajiang River, and Qingshui River. The enclosure of lakes to create land and the illegal occupation of waters should be prohibited. Measures should be taken to protect the water surface and prevent water pollution. Publicity efforts should be increased to make the residents aware of the importance of protecting, developing, and rationally utilizing aquatic life, while extinction fishing should be prohibited. Reclaiming lakes (reservoirs) and rivers without authorization by any individual or unit should be prohibited.

(5) Comprehensive management of rocky desertification should be intensified and promoted in strict accordance with the management methods such as “Project Management Measures for Rocky Desertification Comprehensive Management Project in Shilin Yi Autonomous County” issued by the Office of the People’s Government of Shilin County. This can further enhance the effectiveness of the comprehensive management of rocky desertification in the park and continuously improve the ecological environment of the Shilin World Geopark.

Because of the long-time span and the difficulty of data collection, this study neither quantitatively analyzed the influence of population and economic factors on landscape ecological risk nor considered the interaction among factors. In the future, we aim to conduct in-depth quantitative research on the influencing factors to understand the interaction among different factors and the impact on the regional landscape ecological risk. In addition, considering the lack of accuracy of remote sensing data and possible errors in the calculation method, we aim to conduct subsequent research by employing suitable methods to improve the accuracy of the research results.

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/supplementary material. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

YS: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. HG: Writing – review & editing. ST: Writing – review & editing. HQ: Writing – review & editing. ZT: Writing – review & editing. JM: Writing – review & editing. XZ: Writing – review & editing.