AUTHOR=Lv Shuo , Sun Yuan , Zhong Zhong , Shen Yixuan 

TITLE=Possible reasons for the migration of tropical cyclone track over the western north pacific: Interdecadal pacific oscillation modulation

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Earth Science

VOLUME=Volume 10 - 2022

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.994876

DOI=10.3389/feart.2022.994876

ISSN=2296-6463

ABSTRACT=Recent studies have proposed a relatively reliable metric, i.e., the annual-mean latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity, to evaluate the observed trend of poleward migration of TC. The documented trend in the existing records of the metric suggests that anthropogenic factors might make considerable contributions to the poleward migration of TC. However, here we show that there is no significant TC migration trend in the western North Pacific (WNP). Instead, large interdecadal variation is found in the WNP TC track over the past 35 years. Rather than the anthropogenic factors, it is the natural variability, especially the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), that plays a critical role in modulating the migration of WNP TC track. The IPO-related TC migration is expected to cause systematic increases and decreases in regional hazard exposure and risk. The impact of IPO on the WNP TC migration is attributed to its influences on the TC genesis potential index, the potential intensity and the large-scale circulation in the TC prevailing region of the WNP.