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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Front. Earth Sci.</journal-id>
<journal-title>Frontiers in Earth Science</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="pubmed">Front. Earth Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
<issn pub-type="epub">2296-6463</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Frontiers Media S.A.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">751216</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3389/feart.2021.751216</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Earth Science</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Original Research</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Selected Crater and Small Caldera Lakes in Alaska: Characteristics and Hazards</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Waythomas</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">Alaska Crater Lakes</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Waythomas</surname>
<given-names>Christopher F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c001">&#x2a;</xref>
<uri xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/1425866/overview"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff>
<institution>US Geological Survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory</institution>, <addr-line>Anchorage</addr-line>, <addr-line>AK</addr-line>, <country>United&#x20;States</country>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Edited by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/130804/overview">Dmitri Rouwet</ext-link>, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>
<bold>Reviewed by:</bold> <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/933364/overview">Vern Manville</ext-link>, University of Leeds, United&#x20;Kingdom</p>
<p>
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/99252/overview">Valerio Acocella</ext-link>, Roma Tre University, Italy</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="c001">&#x2a;Correspondence: Christopher F. Waythomas, <email>cwaythomas@usgs.gov</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="other">
<p>This article was submitted to Volcanology, a section of the journal Frontiers in Earth Science</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>03</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<elocation-id>751216</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>31</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2021</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>11</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2021</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright &#xa9; 2022 Waythomas.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Waythomas</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these&#x20;terms.</p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>This study addresses the characteristics, potential hazards, and both eruptive and non-eruptive role of water at selected volcanic crater lakes in Alaska. Crater lakes are an important feature of some stratovolcanoes in Alaska. Of the volcanoes in the state with known Holocene eruptive activity, about one third have summit crater lakes. Also included are two volcanoes with small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). The lakes play an important but not well studied role in influencing eruptive behavior and pose some significant hydrologic hazards. Floods from crater lakes in Alaska are evaluated by estimating maximum potential crater lake water volumes and peak outflow discharge with a dam-break model. Some recent eruptions and hydrologic events that involved crater lakes also are reviewed. The large volumes of water potentially hosted by crater lakes in Alaska indicate that significant flowage hazards resulting from catastrophic breaching of crater rims are possible. Estimates of maximum peak flood discharge associated with breaching of lake-filled craters derived from dam-break modeling indicate that flood magnitudes could be as large as 10<sup>3</sup>&#x2013;10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>/s if summit crater lakes drain rapidly when at maximum volume. Many of the Alaska crater lakes discussed are situated in hydrothermally altered craters characterized by complex assemblages of stratified unconsolidated volcaniclastic deposits, in a region known for large magnitude (&#x3e;M7) earthquakes. Although there are only a few historical examples of eruptions involving crater lakes in Alaska, these provide noteworthy examples of the role of external water in cooling pyroclastic deposits, acidic crater-lake drainage, and water-related hazards such as lahars and base&#x20;surge.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>Alaska</kwd>
<kwd>crater lakes</kwd>
<kwd>hazards</kwd>
<kwd>floods</kwd>
<kwd>eruptions</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body>
<sec id="s1">
<title>1 Introduction</title>
<p>Volcanic crater lakes are distinguishing features of many active stratovolcanoes in Alaska and elsewhere (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">Christenson et&#x20;al., 2015</xref>). Crater lakes commonly form after crater-forming eruptions where local volcanic and hydrologic conditions permit the development of confined lakes within the crater itself. Eruptions through crater lakes pose a special type of hazard because of the potential for explosivity associated with magma-water interaction and the possibility for voluminous water-rich mass flows that can develop if lake water is explosively expelled from its host crater or produced by catastrophic breaching of the crater wall (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Mastin and Witter, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">Manville et&#x20;al., 2007</xref>). The hazards associated with volcanic crater lakes beyond Alaska have received some study especially in locations where people and infrastructure are at risk (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Mastin and Witter, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">Manville, 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">Manville, 2015</xref>, and references therein). In New&#x20;Zealand, partial failure of the rim of Crater Lake at Mount Ruapehu in 1953 caused a significant flood and lahar that resulted in 151 fatalities (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">Manville et&#x20;al., 2007</xref>) highlighting the importance of catastrophic crater lake drainage. These works and others (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Neall, 1996</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">Strehlow et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B71">Rouwet, 2021</xref>) have noted the hazard implications of large volumes of water within the craters of active volcanoes and this is in part the motivation to evaluate hydrologic hazards at crater lakes in Alaska.</p>
<p>In Alaska, volcanic craters that contain lakes are present at several locations throughout the Aleutian Arc (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). However, the hydrologic hazards and consequences of eruptions involving these lakes have received little study. The volume of water present in existing crater lakes in Alaska (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>) indicates that there could be significant hydrologic consequences associated with eruptive activity through water, or failure of crater rims. To address potential hazards and lake water eruption interactions, existing information about a representative sampling of crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska is synthesized and the potential hydrologic hazards associated with failure of crater walls leading to large dam-break type floods is evaluated. Not all crater and caldera lakes in the Aleutian arc are included here. The sampling of study locations provides examples of the main types of crater or potential crater lake settings found in Alaska. Maar craters are also not evaluated because they are uncommon in Alaska, although a maar crater lake drainage event did occur in Aniakchak caldera (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B102">McGimsey et al., 2014</xref>). Information about some plausible hydrologic hazards associated with drainage of lakes at Okmok and Aniakchak can be found in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B103">Larsen et al. (2015)</xref> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B104">Neal et al. (2001)</xref>. Several recent Alaska examples of eruptions and hydrologic events that involved crater lakes also are reviewed to illustrate the role of lake water in influencing eruptive processes and hazardous hydrologic phenomena.</p>
<fig id="F1" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Location of crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska discussed in this study. The Alaska Peninsula is abbreviated AK Pen.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g001.tif"/>
</fig>
<table-wrap id="T1" position="float">
<label>TABLE 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Characteristics of volcanic crater lakes in Alaska. Volume estimates made from IfSAR digital elevation data; &#x2a; indicates volume estimate based on crater depth multiplied by crater area at the spillover elevation.<sup>&#x23;</sup> Indicates volume estimate based on formula for a truncated cone, <inline-formula id="inf1">
<mml:math id="m1">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
<mml:mi>&#x3c0;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>[</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>]</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> where <italic>V</italic> is volume, <italic>r</italic> is bottom radius, <italic>R</italic> is top radius at the spillover elevation and <italic>d</italic> is depth. <sup>@</sup> Indicates volume estimate derived from DEM raster volume calculation in Qgis. These estimates do not include the volume of modern lakes. Maximum potential crater lake volume in bold indicates value used in peak discharge calculation.</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Volcano and timing of last known eruptive activity</th>
<th align="center">Coordinates</th>
<th align="center">Crater/caldera area (m<sup>2</sup>)</th>
<th align="center">Maximum Crater/caldera depth (m)</th>
<th align="center">Modern lake area (m<sup>2</sup>)</th>
<th align="center">Maximum potential crater lake volume&#x2a; (m<sup>3</sup>)</th>
<th align="center">Maximum potential crater lake volume<sup>&#x23;</sup> (m<sup>3</sup>)</th>
<th align="center">Maximum potential crater lake volume<sup>@</sup> (m<sup>3</sup>)</th>
<th align="center">Comments</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Mount Spurr summit 5&#x2013;6&#xa0;ka</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;152.251&#xb0; W, 62.300&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">9 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">140</td>
<td align="center">1.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>8.6 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Crater lake is an ephemeral feature; present 2004&#x2013;2006. Crater depth estimated from IfSar DEM.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Crater Peak 1992</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;152.239&#xb0; W, 61.265&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">40</td>
<td align="center">5 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>1.8 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Crater lake is an ephemeral feature; present 1978&#x2013;1992. Crater depth estimated from IfSar DEM and is the minimum depth for lake spillover at the low point on the crater rim</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Douglas Holocene?</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;153.535&#xb0; W,58.859&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">10</td>
<td align="center">6.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>1 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Area of crater at low point on crater rim &#x3d; 97,672&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. Lake area is the average of four lake areas measured from satellite images obtained in 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kaguyak Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;154.0245&#xb0; W,58.6113&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">6.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">150</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>8.3 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>8</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">The modern lake has a volume of about 5 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Katmai 1912</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;155.2544&#xb0; W 58.1946&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">9.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">470</td>
<td align="center">5.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>9</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>1.5 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>9</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">The modern lake has a volume of at least 1 &#xd7; 10<sup>9</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Mageik Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;155.2544&#xb0; W,58.1946&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">8.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">35</td>
<td align="center">8.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>3.1 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>5</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Area of crater at low point on crater rim &#x3d; 25,710&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Martin Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;155.3566&#xb0; W 58.1692&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">1.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">50</td>
<td align="center">9.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>1 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Area of crater at low point on crater rim &#x3d; 62,019&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Chiginagak Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;156.9915&#xb0; W,57.13348&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">2.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">40</td>
<td align="center">9.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.9 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>3.8 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Crater and lake area from 2009 satellite image.Area of crater at low point on crater rim &#x3d; 73,400&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Dana Holocene?</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;161.2155&#xb0; W 55.64205&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">2.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">40</td>
<td align="center">5.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>2.6 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>7</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">The depth of the modern lake was estimated in the field</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Hague Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;161.9778&#xb0; W 55.373074&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">1.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">90</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>4.6 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Modern crater lake is ephemeral</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Makushin 1995</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;166.9320&#xb0; W 53.88707&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">100</td>
<td align="center">2.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>1.9 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Dimensions from August 1, 2020, satellite image. Volume of modern lake unknown</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Tana Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;169.758&#xb0; W 52.839&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">7.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">10</td>
<td align="center">2.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>3.4 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">The volume of the modern lake is unknown</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Herbert Holocene</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;170.113&#xb0; W 52.741&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">220</td>
<td align="center">5.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>3.5 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>8</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">The volume of the modern lake is unknown</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Korovin 1998</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;174.1548&#xb0; W 52.37934&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">3.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">140</td>
<td align="center">1.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>2.3 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>7</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Modern crater lake is ephemeral</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kasatochi 2008</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;175.5113&#xb0; W 52.1693&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">1.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">180</td>
<td align="center">8.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>2 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>8</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Dimensions based on November 22, 2020, satellite image</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">North crater, Cerberus 2021</td>
<td align="center">&#x2212;179.5856&#xb0; W 51.935,588&#xb0; N</td>
<td align="center">1.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="char" char=".">120</td>
<td align="center">6&#x2013;8 x 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">
<bold>7.4 x 10</bold>
<sup>
<bold>6</bold>
</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="left">Modern crater lake is ephemeral</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<p>To date, there has been no systematic examination of crater lakes in the Aleutian Arc and thus the potential consequences of water bodies situated at the summit of active high-relief stratovolcanoes are not specifically known. The goal of this work is to establish some of the physical parameters involved with catastrophic release of water from crater lakes and to present examples of recent unrest where crater lakes had or were suspected of playing an important role during unrest. The first part of the study will address breaching of crater rims and associated water floods using a dam-break modeling approach. The second part of the study will focus on lake water involvement in the eruption process and associated hazards. Recent unrest at Kasatochi, Korovin, Makushin, and the north crater of Cerberus volcano, in Alaska (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>) have raised numerous questions about the role and fate of external water in augmenting potential hazards during explosive eruptive activity and provide further motivation for this study. Although many of the drainages downstream from crater lakes described here are uninhabited with little infrastructure, these areas are visited seasonally and some contain significant biological resources (fish, wildlife, and habitat) that could be adversely affected by floods originating at crater lakes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>).</p>
<p>The volcanic craters discussed here are &#x3c;1&#xa0;km in diameter which roughly differentiates them from calderas which are larger (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">Francis, 1976</xref>). In Alaska, crater lakes are somewhat uncommon among the historically active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc and of the volcanoes active during the Holocene, roughly one-third have summit crater lakes (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>), including two which are small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). Kaguyak volcano has a summit caldera that is slightly larger than 1&#xa0;km in diameter but is included here because it contains a large lake whose surface is close to a pronounced low point along the caldera rim (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure&#x20;2</xref>). The volcano also has a documented history of explosive dome-forming eruptions of Holocene age (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein and Hildreth, 2008</xref>); should similar eruptions occur in the future, they likely would be capable of displacing lake water that could overtop the caldera&#x20;rim.</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Photograph, ifSAR derived topographic map, cross section, and generalized geologic map of Kaguyak caldera. <bold>(A)</bold>. Photograph of lake-filled caldera, August 1982. Photo by C.J.&#x20;Nye, AVO. <bold>(B)</bold>. IfSAR derived topographic map of lake-filled caldera of Kaguyak volcano. <bold>(C)</bold>. Topographic profile from southwest to northeast across Kaguyak caldera. <bold>(D)</bold>. Generalized geologic map of Kaguyak volcano. Modified from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein and Hildreth,&#x20;2008</xref>.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g002.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Previous studies of Holocene calderas in the Aleutian Arc have identified evidence for large caldera lake floods associated with catastrophic breaching of caldera rims at Aniakchak, Okmok and Fisher calderas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 1996</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B100">Wolfe, 2001</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Stelling et&#x20;al., 2005</xref>). These examples and other large calderas in Alaska will not be discussed further here as the focus of this study is on crater lakes and small caldera lakes that have no known catastrophic drainage events except for Chiginagak volcano which experiences repeated episodes of crater lake drainage (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2">
<title>2 Methods</title>
<p>Crater and small caldera lakes in Alaska were evaluated using several approaches including consultation of photographic records, GIS analysis of digital elevation data, geologic maps, and previously published reports and articles. The methods and approaches used in this study are described briefly below and more fully in <italic>Crater Stability and Susceptibility to Failure</italic> and <italic>Crater Rim Overtopping, Breach Formation, and Peak Flood Discharge</italic>.</p>
<sec id="s2-1">
<title>2.1 Historical Photographs of Crater Lakes in Alaska</title>
<p>The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has an extensive collection of photographs and satellite images of volcanoes throughout Alaska contributed by AVO scientists and other observers. This database (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Cameron and Snedigar, 2016</xref>) was consulted for representative photographs of the crater and caldera lakes described in this paper. Most of the photographs are relatively recent images of the lakes and thus show the near present configurations of the water bodies. Most of these photographs are shown in the <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figures</xref> that accompany this&#x20;paper.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-2">
<title>2.2 GIS Analysis and Volume Estimates of Crater Lakes</title>
<p>Spatial information about Alaska crater lakes is presented in the form of topographic maps and cross sections generated from 5&#xa0;m-resolution ifSAR elevation data acquired 2012&#x2013;2019 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B84">Carswell, 2013</xref>). Digital elevation data for each crater lake was processed in Qgis where hillshade renderings and contour maps were constructed. The digital elevation data was used to identify the lowest point along the crater rim where spillover of lake water would likely occur, if the crater were filled to capacity. Topographic cross sections also were generated in Qgis through each crater rim low point; the cross sections provide a two-dimensional representation of each crater and are shown in the <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figures</xref> that accompany this paper. The maximum crater lake area was taken as the elevation contour corresponding to the lowest point on the crater rim. The maximum potential lake depth was approximated as the elevation difference between the crater rim low point and the crater floor elevation including the lake depth if known or estimated. The maximum crater lake area multiplied by the depth gives a maximum theoretical lake volume estimate (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>) which is considered an upper bound on lake volume as this estimate does not explicitly account for crater geometry. A second volume estimate was made by assuming a truncated cone for crater shape and using the formula, <inline-formula id="inf2">
<mml:math id="m2">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
<mml:mi>&#x3c0;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>[</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>]</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> to calculate maximum water volume (<italic>V</italic>), where <italic>r</italic> is bottom radius, <italic>R</italic> is top radius at the spillover elevation, and <italic>d</italic> is depth. In many instances the volume estimates are about the same (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>) but in a few cases (Douglas, Makushin) the values differ by more than a factor of 10. Photographs of these two crater lakes indicate that the crater shapes are better approximated by a truncated cone so the volume estimates resulting from application of the truncated cone formula are used for these two volcanoes in subsequent calculations described below. A third maximum potential lake volume estimate was made using the ifSAR digital elevation data and the raster surface volume algorithm in Qgis. This method does not include the present lake volume, but where known gives volume estimates roughly comparable to the estimates made by the other two methods (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). In most cases, application of the formula for a truncated cone, where the lake bottom elevation is known or reasonably approximated, gives the plausible estimates for maximum potential lake volume because qualitatively, many of the craters look like truncated cones. In cases where modern lakes are absent or small in volume, the Qgis raster volume estimates of maximum potential lake volume were used for subsequent calculations of maximum peak discharge because these estimates are based on actual ifSAR derived topography. The values used for peak discharge estimates are shown in bold in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-3">
<title>2.3 Previous Studies of Crater Geology</title>
<p>Published geologic information was consulted to make first-order evaluations of crater rim conditions to provide insight into crater wall geology, stability and susceptibility to erosion or failure. At many of the locations discussed, geologic information is limited or nonexistent. The specific reports and articles consulted are given as references throughout <italic>Crater Lakes in Alaska</italic>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-4">
<title>2.4 Assessment of Crater Rim Stability and Crater Lake Hydrology</title>
<p>Volcanic crater rim stability and susceptibility to failure are discussed in <italic>Crater Stability and Susceptibility to Failure</italic> of this paper. To date, there have been no rigorous evaluations of the strength of lake-filled craters using any of the standard approaches for determining rock-mass strength and slope stability (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B88">Watters et&#x20;al., 2000</xref>). A first-order attempt to evaluate the seismic effects on crater wall stability is presented in <italic>Seismic Effects on Volcanic Crater Lakes</italic>. To date there have been no systematic studies of Alaska crater lake hydrology although some general conclusions about the hydrologic characteristics of the lakes are possible. These are described further in <italic>Volcanic Crater Lake Hydrology</italic>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2-5">
<title>2.5&#x20;Dam-Break Modeling of Floods From Lake-Filled Volcanic Craters</title>
<p>The approach used to estimate maximum peak discharge associated with floods from lake-filled craters in Alaska is described in <italic>Crater Rim Overtopping, Breach Formation, and Peak Flood Discharge</italic>. This was done to benefit from the context established by the review of lake-filled volcanic craters in Alaska presented in <italic>Crater Lakes in Alaska</italic> and the analysis of crater rim stability and hydrology presented in <italic>Crater Stability and Susceptibility to Failure</italic>. The basic approach to dam-break analysis is described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al. (1996)</xref> but modified here for application to crater&#x20;lakes.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s3">
<title>3 Selected Crater Lakes in Alaska</title>
<sec id="s3-1">
<title>3.1 Mount Spurr Volcano</title>
<p>Mount Spurr volcano is in the Cook Inlet region of south-central Alaska (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The volcano consists of a stratified assemblage of andesite lava flows and lahar, pyroclastic-flow, and debris-avalanche deposits of late Quaternary age (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">Nye and Turner, 1990</xref>). These rock units are truncated by a horseshoe-shaped avalanche caldera of Holocene age that is open to the southeast (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>). The summit cone of Mount Spurr is heavily glaciated and rock outcrops on the upper flanks of the volcano are largely obscured by snow and ice. The volume of ice and perennial snow on Mount Spurr when measured in 1981 was 67&#x20;&#xb1; 17&#xa0;km<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">March et&#x20;al., 1997</xref>). A period of elevated heat flow at the summit in 2004&#x2013;2006 resulted in partial exhumation of a crater on the summit edifice and formation of a small lake within the crater with an interior volume (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Coombs et&#x20;al., 2006</xref>). By the end of this event, a crater about 9.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> was visible at the summit of the volcano. A small lake developed on the floor of the crater (first observed in 2004), covering an area of about 11,540&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> by 2006 (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>). The maximum volume of a hypothetical lake in the summit crater is 5.5&#x2013;9.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The thermal excursion of 2004&#x2013;2006 is the only known period associated with the exhumation and formation of a crater lake at the Mount Spurr summit. Previous thermal events did occur that partially exposed the summit crater (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Coombs et&#x20;al., 2006</xref>) but no lakes were reported.</p>
<p>Crater Peak is a basaltic&#x2013;andesite satellite cone on the south flank of Mount Spurr volcano (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S2</xref>). Crater Peak has been the active vent of Mount Spurr volcano for about the past 5&#x2013;6&#xa0;ka (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">Riehle 1985</xref>) and was the site of the two documented historical eruptions in 1953 and 1992 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B83">Keith, 1995</xref>). The first known historical eruption occurred on July 9, 1953 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">Juhle and Coulter, 1955</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Miller et&#x20;al., 1998</xref>). It is unknown if a lake occupied the floor of Crater Peak prior to the 1953 eruption, but for several decades prior to the eruption, plumes of whitish steam commonly were observed rising from the summit of Crater Peak and pilots reported an increase in the vigor of steaming in late spring 1953 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">Juhle and Coulter, 1955</xref>). The 1953 eruption was a single explosive burst lasting about 1&#xa0;hour, and it generated an ash cloud that rose more than 10&#xa0;km above sea level (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">Juhle and Coulter, 1955</xref>).</p>
<p>Aerial photographs taken in 1952, 1954, and 1957 show no lake on the floor of Crater Peak (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S2</xref>). A 1970 visit to Crater Peak indicated a hot lake was present in the crater (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B105">Keith et al., 1995</xref>). A Landsat satellite image acquired on July 27, 1974, also shows no lake on the crater floor. An aerial photograph taken on August 8, 1978, shows a lake present on the crater floor (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S2d</xref>) and opportunistic photographs in the AVO photo database show a lake present from 1982 until the first Crater Peak eruption in 1992 on June 27. Intermittent observations of Crater Peak from 1992 to the present have indicated that a lake has not reformed after the 1992 eruption.</p>
<p>The low point on the crater rim is about 1940&#xa0;m above sea level and the depth from the low point to the crater floor is about 40&#xa0;m. The area of the crater is about 360,450&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and the maximum volume of a crater-filling lake is about 1.8&#x2013;14 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). Observations and photographic evidence indicate that at no time was the lake ever much more than a shallow feature on the floor of Crater Peak covering an area of about 50,000&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-2">
<title>3.2 Mount Douglas</title>
<p>Mount Douglas is located on the west side of the marine entrance to Cook Inlet (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Douglas is an ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano (summit altitude 2,140&#xa0;m) with a summit crater that contains a small lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S3</xref>). Little is known about the geologic history of Douglas volcano, and it is uncertain when the last eruption of the volcano occurred and when the summit crater developed. Measurements made in 1991 indicated that the lake had a temperature of 25&#xb0;C and a pH of &#x223c;1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">Motyka et&#x20;al., 1993</xref>). The summit crater has an area of about 134,000&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and the crater lake covers an area of about 61,470&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> (average of four measurements made from satellite images, <xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The low point on the crater rim is about 10&#xa0;m above lake level, and the maximum crater volume at this level is about 9.8&#x2013;10 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-3">
<title>3.3 Mount Chiginagak</title>
<p>Mount Chiginagak is an ice and snow-clad stratovolcano on the Alaska Peninsula near Mother Goose Lake (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The volcano is about 8&#xa0;km in diameter and its summit has an elevation of 2,135&#xa0;m above sea level. The summit crater contains a lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S4</xref>) that episodically drains through a glaciated breach on the crater rim (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). The volcano has had no known historical eruptive activity, although fumaroles on the upper flanks of the edifice are occasionally quite vigorous. The volcano developed during the late Quaternary and lava flows, lahar, pyroclastic, tephra and debris-avalanche deposits of Holocene and Pleistocene age characterize the edifice (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>). Rocks in the summit area are hydrothermally altered although the type and extent are not known (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S4</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>).</p>
<p>The summit crater of Chiginagak volcano has an area of about 215,610&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> although a pronounced glacial notch in the rim (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S4</xref>) precludes the entire crater becoming filled with water. The crater lake is an ephemeral feature that periodically develops when the heat flux through the upper edifice increases to melt snow and ice in the crater. As the lake level rises, the water encounters a glacier-occupied saddle (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S4</xref>) that is the low point on the crater rim. At this elevation the maximum area a crater lake could attain is about 73,400&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and the hypothetical lake volume is 1.3&#x2013;3.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). Erosion of the ice dam allows, acidic lake water to flow from the crater and enter the Indecision Creek drainage on the west-northwest flank of the volcano (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). Acidic water floods are temporarily destructive to the riparian ecosystem of the Indecision Creek drainage including Mother Goose Lake (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-4">
<title>3.4 Kaguyak Volcano</title>
<p>Kaguyak volcano and its defining caldera lake is a silicic volcanic center consisting of numerous nested lava domes and flows. The volcano is in Katmai National Park on the northeastern Alaska Peninsula (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Kaguyak experienced a caldera-forming eruption about 5.8&#xa0;ka (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein, and Hildreth, 2008</xref>) and a lake formed in the small 2.5 &#xd7; 3&#xa0;km diameter caldera after the eruption. The lake is estimated to be about 150&#xa0;m deep, has a surface area of 3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and an approximate volume of 5&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein and Hildreth, 2008</xref>). The caldera rim has a distinct low point where the lake spillover should occur if the water level increased by about 30&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure&#x20;2</xref>). The maximum water volume the caldera could hold is 1.3&#x2013;9 x 10<sup>8</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). Information about modern lake level fluctuations is not known.</p>
<p>Kaguyak has had no known historical activity and the exposed walls of the caldera do not appear significantly altered. At least three nested dome complexes were identified by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein and Hildreth (2008)</xref> that make up the bulk of the volcano (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure&#x20;2</xref>). There are no outward signs of caldera rim instability although areas of edifice overlap could be somewhat less structurally robust than other parts of the caldera rim. The low point on the caldera rim (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure&#x20;2B</xref>) is underlain by a block-rich breccia emplaced about 6&#x2013;6.5&#xa0;ka, that was associated with a debris-avalanche produced by dome disruption that preceded caldera collapse (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein, and Hildreth, 2008</xref>). The &#x201c;Big Breccia&#x201d; deposit fills preexisting drainages and low areas and is one of the main deposits that holds in the lake (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein, and Hildreth, 2008</xref>). The deposit is massive, unstratified, about 25&#xa0;m thick, and contains numerous blocks 2&#x2013;4&#xa0;m in diameter. The deposit matrix consists of coarse sandy material that is iron-stained and somewhat indurated possibly as a result of iron cementation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Fierstein and Hildreth, 2008</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-5">
<title>3.5 Mount Katmai</title>
<p>Mount Katmai is a compound stratovolcano, about 10&#xa0;km in&#x20;diameter, that is also located in Katmai National Park on the northeastern Alaska Peninsula (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Mount Katmai&#x20;experienced catastrophic caldera collapse during the June 1912&#x20;Katmai-Novarupta eruption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Hildreth and Fierstein,&#x20;2012a</xref>). The caldera has an area of 9.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and is partially occupied by a lake of about 5.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> in area.&#x20;The low point on the caldera rim is at an elevation of 1,470&#xa0;m and the lake surface has an elevation of about 1,285&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S5</xref>). The estimated elevation of the caldera floor is about 995&#xa0;m, indicating that the lake has a depth of 290&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012a</xref>). The maximum&#x20;depth of a crater-filling lake is about 470&#xa0;m and&#x20;the maximum volume of water the crater could hold is 1.5&#x2013;3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>9</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). Upwelling associated with hydrothermal activity on the floor of the lake was reported by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">Motyka (1978)</xref>.</p>
<p>Multiple glaciers that resided on the Mount Katmai edifice were truncated by caldera collapse in 1912 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012a</xref>). Several of these glaciers persist today and occupy shallow glacial troughs on the edifice flanks. Runoff from snow and ice melt and precipitation probably controls the water balance of the lake as there are no perennial streams that flow into the caldera.</p>
<p>The rocks exposed in the walls of the caldera consist of bedded lavas of basalt to rhyodacite composition and a variety of phreatomagmatic fragmental deposits (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012b</xref>). Alteration is common on parts of the caldera wall (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S5</xref>) and the extent of alteration is locally intense enough to obscure primary depositional features such as along the east wall of the caldera where the caldera rim is at its lowest elevation (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure&#x20;6</xref> of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012b</xref>). A possible zone of weakness on the northeast wall of the caldera is indicated by numerous dikes oriented roughly northeast-southwest (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2003</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012b</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-6">
<title>3.6 Mount Mageik</title>
<p>Mount Mageik is one of the Katmai group volcanoes located in Katmai National Park in the northeastern part of the Alaska&#x20;Peninsula (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The volcano consists of a 2,165-m-high compound andesite-dacite stratovolcano that includes four overlapping cones that make up a broad edifice that covers about 80&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Hildreth et&#x20;al., 2000</xref>). A small, elongated crater about 350 m in length on the northeast side of the central peak contains a shallow crater lake that is also the source of vigorous fumarolic activity (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S6</xref>). The crater lake covers an area of about 8,600&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and the crater is roughly 8.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> in area. The low point on the south crater rim is about 1925&#xa0;m above sea level (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S6</xref>). At this point the maximum potential depth of a crater-filling lake is about 35&#xa0;m and the corresponding lake volume would be about 3&#x2013;22 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The crater resides in andesite-dacite lava flows of late Pleistocene&#x2013;Holocene age (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2003</xref>). Photographs of the crater indicate extensive areas of hydrothermal alteration (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S6</xref>) indicating that the crater walls could be susceptible to failure or erosion by&#x20;water.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-7">
<title>3.7 Mount Martin</title>
<p>Mount Martin is a small volcanic cone of Holocene age that consists of numerous overlapping lava flows of blocky dacite (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2003</xref>). The volcanic pile rests on a high ridge of Jurassic rocks that provides much of the relief of the volcano. Martin has an active hydrothermal system and numerous jetting fumaroles along the floor of its crater just beyond the margin of a small crater lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S7</xref>). The Martin crater has an area of about 1.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>, and the lake covers about 9,700&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. The maximum lake volume the crater could hold is about 1&#x2013;5 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The cone of Mount Martin consists primarily of andesite ejecta including scoria, agglutinate, and phreatomagmatic breccia (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Hildreth and Fierstein, 2003</xref>). These deposits are exposed in the crater walls and exhibit variable alteration.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-8">
<title>3.8 Mount Dana</title>
<p>Mount Dana is a small volcanic center with a central crater about 2&#xa0;km in diameter, located northeast of Pavlof Bay on the southwestern Alaska Peninsula (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Little is known about the geology of the volcano and its eruptive history. Pyroclastic-flow deposits emplaced about 3.8&#xa0;ka and presumably associated with a large explosive eruption that could have formed the crater are exposed on the west flank of the edifice (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B97">Wilson et&#x20;al., 1995</xref>).</p>
<p>The summit crater of Dana volcano has an area of about 2.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>, and the crater lake covers about 5.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. Because the crater is breached on the southwest flank and there is an outlet stream that exiting the lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S8</xref>), it is unlikely that the lake could get much larger unless the outlet became blocked by a landslide. The depth of the lake is unknown, but is probably on the order of 30&#x2013;40&#xa0;m based on visual estimates made during a field visit by the author in 2005. For a lake 40&#xa0;m deep, the lake volume would be 2.3&#x2013;2.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-9">
<title>3.9 Mount Hague</title>
<p>Mount Hague is a prominent stratocone within Emmons Lake caldera on the southwestern Alaska Peninsula (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Mount Hague consists of a twin-peaked basaltic-andesite to dacite stratovolcano about 5&#xa0;km wide at the base and about 750&#xa0;m high (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S9</xref>). The flanks are largely snow- and ice-covered and scalloped by glacial erosion. The summit area is marked by two over-lapping circular craters, each about 400&#xa0;m in diameter (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S9</xref>). The rim of the northern crater reaches an elevation of 1,540&#xa0;m above sea level but is cut by the southern crater, indicating the latter is younger. The southern crater is about 250&#xa0;m deep, and a fumarole field is visible when the crater floor is exposed; however, by mid-summer the bottom of the crater is commonly covered by an ephemeral lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S9</xref>). The low point on the crater rim is about 1,350&#xa0;m and the crater floor is about 1,260&#xa0;m, indicating a maximum potential lake depth of about 90&#xa0;m. For a lake of this depth, the maximum volume is about 4.6&#x2013;13 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-10">
<title>3.10 Makushin Volcano</title>
<p>Makushin Volcano is a 2,036-m-high stratovolcano on Unalaska Island located 8&#xa0;km west of Dutch Harbor and Unalaska, Alaska (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The volcano has had at least 17 eruptive episodes since the 1700&#xa0;s and erupted most recently in 1995 (McGimsey and Neal, 1995; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Miller et&#x20;al., 1998</xref>). The summit crater has an area of about 350,000&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and is roughly 217 by 250&#xa0;m in diameter (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S10</xref>). The lake on the floor of the crater has an area of about 24,500&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S10</xref>). The crater was the source of minor eruptive activity in 1995 when a single eruptive burst generated an ash cloud that reached about 2,400&#xa0;m above sea level and produced trace ash fallout on the upper part of the edifice (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">McGimsey and Neal, 1996</xref>).</p>
<p>The summit crater is surrounded by an extensive snow and ice field and there are multiple active fumaroles on the crater floor (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B95">Werner et&#x20;al., 2020</xref>). The hydrothermal system at Makushin is active and likely driven by shallow magma beneath the summit region (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">Motyka, et&#x20;al., 1988</xref>). Rock and pyroclastic deposits exposed in the walls of the crater are hydrothermally altered, indicating that the rock mass strength of the crater is likely compromised and could be susceptible to erosion or failure should a larger lake develop in the crater. The crater has a depth of about 100&#xa0;m and thus the maximum volume of water the crater could hold is 4.2&#x2013;19 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-11">
<title>3.11 Tana Volcano</title>
<p>Tana volcano forms the eastern part of Chuginadak Island and is located east of Cleveland volcano (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Little is known about the geology and eruptive history of the volcano. Photographs of the crater (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S11</xref>) and studies of surficial deposits on the flanks of Tana (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">Persico et&#x20;al., 2019</xref>) indicate that parts of the edifice are hydrothermally altered. Hot springs and active fumaroles on the flanks of the volcano are described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B95">Werner et&#x20;al. (2020)</xref>. The crater on Tana has an area of about 7.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>, and the crater lake covers about 2.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. The low point on the crater rim is about 780&#xa0;m, only about 10&#xa0;m above the modern lake level. The maximum possible volume of a crater lake is about 0.5&#x2013;3.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-12">
<title>3.12 Herbert Volcano</title>
<p>Herbert volcano on Herbert Island, is in the Islands of the Four Mountains area of the Aleutian Islands and is the western most volcano of this group of volcanic islands (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). Little is known about the geology and eruptive history of Herbert. The summit of the volcano is characterized by a circular 2.1&#xa0;km diameter crater (or small caldera) that hosts a small lake that is about 5.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> in area (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S12</xref>). The low point on the crater rim is about 840&#xa0;m and this corresponds to a maximum potential lake area of about 1.9 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. The depth of the largest lake the crater could hold is about 220&#xa0;m and the volume 1.8&#x2013;4.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-13">
<title>3.13 Korovin Volcano</title>
<p>Korovin is one of several stratovolcanoes on the northern part of Atka Island in the central Aleutian Islands (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The village of Atka is 21&#xa0;km south of the volcano. The Korovin summit edifice includes two craters, and the southern crater hosts the active vent and contains a small warm lake. Korovin has had minor episodes of phreatomagmatic eruptive activity in 2005, 1998, 1996, 1987, 1986, 1976, 1973, 1954, 1951, and 1907. Some of these eruptions generated small amounts of ash and lava flows of limited extent (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Miller et&#x20;al., 1998</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">McGimsey et&#x20;al., 2003</xref>). The 1998 eruption produced an ash cloud that reached about 9&#xa0;km above sea level. Fumaroles and warm mud springs are plentiful on the western and southern flanks of the volcano and overall the level of hydrothermal activity on and around the Korovin edifice is relatively&#x20;high.</p>
<p>The south crater of the Korovin edifice has an area of about 3.7&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and is partially occupied by a lake with an area of 1.6&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S13</xref>). The maximum depth of a crater filling lake is about 140&#xa0;m and the maximum volume 2.3&#x2013;3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The walls of the south crater consist of interbedded lava flows and pyroclastic deposits that do not appear significantly altered except at the base of the crater around the crater lake (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure&#x20;S13</xref>).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-14">
<title>3.14 Kasatochi Volcano</title>
<p>Kasatochi is a small, isolated island volcano in the east-central part of the Aleutian Arc (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>). The volcano makes up all of Kasatochi Island and consists of a circular cone about 3&#xa0;km in diameter with a lake-filled central crater (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S14</xref>) that exhibited minor fumarolic activity in 2005 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">McGimsey et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). Kasatochi experienced a 21-hour-long VEI 4 eruption on August 7&#x2013;8, 2008 that was the only known historical eruption of the volcano (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010a</xref>). As a result of the 2008 eruption, the summit crater was widened by several tens of meters and Kasatochi Island was covered with many tens of meters of pyroclastic debris and fine ash (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Nye et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Scott et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B92">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010b</xref>). The Kasatochi summit crater has an area of about 1.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>, and the crater lake has an area of 8&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> as determined from a November 22, 2020 WorldView-3, satellite image (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). The crater lake had a depth of about 20&#xa0;m when estimated in 2009 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Nye et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>). The low point on the crater rim is about 160&#xa0;m above sea level indicating that the maximum depth of the largest possible crater lake is roughly 180&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S14</xref>). The area of the largest possible lake in the crater is about 1.3&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and the volume about 2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>.</p>
<p>Geologic studies of Kasatochi following its 2008 eruption indicate that the walls of the crater consist of variable assemblages of bedded lavas and pyroclastic deposits (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure&#x20;7</xref>, <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S14</xref>). The pyroclastic deposits on the west and south rims of the crater are loose and not well consolidated and are likely susceptible to erosion by water. The lava flows exposed beneath the low point on the crater rim are thin bedded with rubbly margins (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Nye et&#x20;al., 2017</xref>) and could be susceptible to piping should the crater lake increase in volume and approach the low point on the crater&#x20;rim. Conduit-like, focused flow of water into the crater after the 2008 eruption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010a</xref>) indicates that parts of the crater walls could allow piping style drainage.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3-15">
<title>3.15 North Crater of Cerberus Volcano</title>
<p>The north crater of Cerberus volcano on Semisopochnoi Island (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure&#x20;1</xref>) contains an ephemeral lake that was observed during recent periods of unrest in 2020-2021 at north crater. The crater is about 400&#xa0;m in diameter and has an area of 1.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. Intermittent satellite observations since 2014, indicate that a small ephemeral lake is sometimes present on the crater floor and likely develops in response to snowmelt runoff sometimes induced by unrest related geothermal heat flow and fumarolic activity within the upper edifice of the north cone. Although its size varies, the crater lake has an area of 6&#x2013;9 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>. The low point on the crater rim is about 750&#xa0;m above sea level, and at this elevation the maximum area of a crater lake is 1&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup>. The maximum depth is about 120&#xa0;m and thus the greatest volume of water the crater could hold is about 6&#x2013;7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>).</p>
<p>The north cone is a basaltic-andesite edifice that consists of lava flows and pyroclastic deposits which are exposed in the walls of the crater (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">Coombs et&#x20;al., 2018</xref>). None of these deposits appear altered, and the crater itself is steep and little modified (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure&#x20;S15</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s4">
<title>4 Crater Stability and Susceptibility to Failure</title>
<p>The stability of lake-filled volcanic craters in Alaska is a key unknown in the assessment of plausible crater wall failures leading to water floods and associated water-saturated mass flows. The rocks and volcaniclastic deposits that make up many volcanic edifices may be structurally weak as a result of hydrothermal alteration (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure&#x20;3A</xref>). The inconsistent nature of edifice stratigraphy, where loose, weak, pyroclastic deposits are interbedded with stronger materials such as lava flows also contributes to potential crater wall instability. Localized degradation of crater walls is indicated by accumulations of rockfall talus common on crater floors that is related to the structural integrity of the rocks and deposits that make up the crater. Many of the lake-filled volcanic craters in Alaska have steep internal slopes, include active hydrothermal systems, and exhibit at least surficial evidence of hydrothermal alteration. Some volcanic craters include thick deposits of tephra and pyroclastic density current deposits that are more susceptible to erosion than lava flows or welded spatter. This suggests that volcanic crater walls in Alaska possess some inherent instability.</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 3</label>
<caption>
<p>Summary of forces and nomenclature for lake-filled volcanic craters at a typical stratocone. <bold>(A)</bold>. Generic cross section through a lake filled volcanic crater showing idealized stratigraphic elements, zone of hydrothermal alteration, and basic forces acting on crater walls. Fumaroles can occur on the crater walls as well as crater floors. The symbol<inline-formula id="inf3">
<mml:math id="m3">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mtext>&#xa0;</mml:mtext>
<mml:mi>&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#xa0;</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>is water density. <bold>(B)</bold>. Trapezoidal breach and relevant geometric parameters.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g003.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>From a hazard assessment perspective, volcanic craters and calderas are likely to be most susceptible to failure when the lakes they host are at or near capacity. In this state, crater rims are analogous to other types of natural or constructed dams (such as landslide dams, moraine dams, earth-fill dams, concrete dams, or embankment dams) and can be evaluated as such. The most common mechanism for failure of natural and constructed dams is by overtopping and roughly 90% of landslide dams fail by this process (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Costa and Schuster, 1988</xref>). Constructed dams of various types also fail predominantly by overtopping but also by piping, seepage, and as a result of foundation defects (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Costa, 1985</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">Foster et&#x20;al., 2000</xref>). Overtopping failures develop from water flowing over the dam crest and subsequent erosion of the dam face. Commonly, water flow over the dam crest results in headward erosion of the dam face until the dam crest is breached, allowing more water to escape resulting in further erosion of the breach. Water seepage through the dam may accelerate the process, especially if groundwater piping develops and some natural dams fail primarily as a result of piping (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Costa and Schuster, 1988</xref>). For a static condition, with no external stresses applied to the crater wall or lake, the hydrostatic pressure associated with the crater lake can result in the development of saturated conditions within all or part of the crater wall materials. If the crater wall materials are saturated, they should exhibit a decrease in shear strength such that the factor of safety (F<sub>s</sub>) is reduced.</p>
<p>Eruptive activity from underwater vents could lead to forceable ejection of water or waves sufficient to overtop crater rim dams. The combined effects of eruptive activity and associated water displacement may enhance erosion of the dam and lead to breaching. In contrast, slow spillover of water associated with hydrologic changes of the lake basin such as rapid snow or ice melt or extreme rainfall (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B101">Yang et&#x20;al., 2005</xref>) could also lead to eventual dam breach.</p>
<p>Preliminary stability information for the 16&#x20;lake-filled craters evaluated in this study is given in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T2">Table&#x20;2</xref>. The steepest parts of the crater walls are in the range of 30&#x2013;60&#xb0; and all but Crater Peak and Dana exhibit some outward evidence for hydrothermal alteration. Five of the craters have active hydrothermal systems, six have ephemeral hydrothermal systems, and five have no apparent modern hydrothermal activity (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T2">Table&#x20;2</xref>). Hydrothermally altered volcanic edifices have an increased susceptibility to gravitational failure because of the general loss of rock mass strength associated with alteration (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B88">Watters, et&#x20;al., 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">Reid et&#x20;al., 2001</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">Finn et&#x20;al., 2018</xref>). Crater wall collapse resulting from hydrothermal alteration could be triggered by intense seismic shaking, eruptive activity, or increases in hydrostatic pressure and wall loading associated with the crater lakes if they were at or near full crater capacity (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure&#x20;3A</xref>).</p>
<table-wrap id="T2" position="float">
<label>TABLE 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Maximum volcanic crater slope angles, extent of surface alteration, and plausible mode of rim failure.</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Volcano</th>
<th align="center">Maximum inner crater wall slope angle, degrees</th>
<th align="center">Hydrothermal alteration of crater walls</th>
<th align="center">Active hydrothermal system present or not</th>
<th align="center">Likely failure mode</th>
<th align="center">Comments</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Spurr summit</td>
<td align="center">50&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Ephemeral</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Glacier ice and snow on crater rim. Abundant ice and snow on flanks of summit cone. Lack of obvious melting since about 2010 indicates hydrothermal activity greatly diminished or stopped</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Crater Peak</td>
<td align="center">50&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">None apparent</td>
<td align="left">Ephemeral</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Crater Peak cone consists primarily of stacks of lava flows with only minor layers of pyroclastic debris</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Douglas</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Active</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Glacier ice and snow on crater rim. Abundant ice and snow on flanks of summit cone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kaguyak</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Minor. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping Piping?</td>
<td align="left">Loose, unconsolidated material occupies lowest terrain on crater rim</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Katmai</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Some bubbling observed but no robust hydrothermal activity reported. Local slope failures could displace water possibly resulting in overtopping</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Mageik</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;45</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Active</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Crater walls consist primarily of altered lava flows and minor pyroclastic and tephra deposits</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Martin</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Active</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Chiginagak</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Ephemeral</td>
<td align="left">Subglacial tunnel</td>
<td align="left">Low point on crater rim mantled by glacier ice forming an ice dam</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Dana</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">None apparent</td>
<td align="left">Inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Outlet stream drains crater lake; a landslide would have to block the channel for a larger lake to form</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Hague</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Ephemeral</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Makushin</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Active</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Glacier ice and snow on crater rim. Abundant ice and snow on flanks of summit cone</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Tana</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Herbert</td>
<td align="center">30&#x2013;50</td>
<td align="left">Minor. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Little known about the geology of the crater</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Korovin</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Active</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kasatochi</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">Yes. Type and extent not known</td>
<td align="left">Generally inactive</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Hydrothermal activity increased prior to the 2008 eruption but observations were sporadic</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">North crater, Cerberus</td>
<td align="center">40&#x2013;60</td>
<td align="left">None apparent</td>
<td align="left">Ephemeral</td>
<td align="left">Overtopping</td>
<td align="left">Satellite observations indicate that the lake is ephemeral</td>
<td align="left"/>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<sec id="s4-1">
<title>4.1 Seismic Effects on Volcanic Crater Lakes</title>
<p>Assuming that it is possible for the crater lakes to increase in volume and approach spillover, an important stability concern are the hydrodynamic pressures on the crater walls induced by seismic shaking of the crater lake. Large-magnitude earthquakes (&#x3e;M7) are common in the Aleutian Arc with one or more occurring almost annually (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Sykes et&#x20;al., 1981</xref>) and intense seismic shaking is a well-known mechanism for inducing failure of natural dams (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Costa and Schuster, 1988</xref>). The magnitude of hydrodynamic pressure depends on the frequency-magnitude characteristics of the seismic load and the material properties of the crater walls. In addition, the seismic shaking of a lake-filled volcanic crater can induce changes in pore-fluid pressure within the crater walls and an associated reduction in shear strength. Volcanic craters that are hydrothermally altered or contain layers that transmit groundwater could be particularly susceptible to failure under seismic loading. In a study of the seismic response of earth-fill dams, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">Gazetas (1987)</xref> showed that ground accelerations are higher near the crest of the dam, suggesting that for lake-filled volcanic craters filled to near capacity, seismic accelerations may be sufficient to cause overtopping and water spillover.</p>
<p>The maximum hydrodynamic pressure (<italic>p</italic>
<sub>max</sub>) occurs at the base of the crater wall dam and can be expressed as:<disp-formula id="e1">
<mml:math id="m4">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>m</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>0.7</mml:mn>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3b3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(1)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf4">
<mml:math id="m5">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the acceleration coefficient (<inline-formula id="inf5">
<mml:math id="m6">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> where <inline-formula id="inf6">
<mml:math id="m7">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#xa0;</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>is the maximum value of the horizontal acceleration and <italic>g</italic> is gravitational acceleration), <inline-formula id="inf7">
<mml:math id="m8">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3b3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the unit weight of water, and <italic>h</italic> is the depth of the lake at the crater wall (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">Pelecanos et&#x20;al., 2013</xref>). This expression is valid for a dam with a vertical lake-side profile. If the internal crater wall is inclined, the hydrodynamic pressure <inline-formula id="inf8">
<mml:math id="m9">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>y</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is expressed as:<disp-formula id="e2">
<mml:math id="m10">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>y</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3b3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(2)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf9">
<mml:math id="m11">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is a pressure coefficient (determined analytically, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Chwang and Housner, 1978</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Chwang, 1978</xref>), <inline-formula id="inf10">
<mml:math id="m12">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the acceleration coefficient, <inline-formula id="inf11">
<mml:math id="m13">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3b3;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the unit weight of water, and <italic>h</italic> is the depth of the lake (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">Pelecanos et&#x20;al., 2013</xref>).</p>
<p>Earthquake induced forces on the reservoir-dam system were evaluated by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Chwang and Housner (1978)</xref>. Their analysis concluded that for dams with lake side facing slopes of 0&#x2013;90&#xb0;, the total horizontal force on the dam (<inline-formula id="inf12">
<mml:math id="m14">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>F</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is:<disp-formula id="e3">
<mml:math id="m15">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>F</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(3)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf13">
<mml:math id="m16">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>C</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is a force coefficient (&#x223c;0.5), <inline-formula id="inf14">
<mml:math id="m17">
<mml:mi>&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is water density, and <inline-formula id="inf15">
<mml:math id="m18">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula id="inf16">
<mml:math id="m19">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are as defined above. Peak ground accelerations in the central-western Aleutian Arc associated with large megathrust earthquakes are roughly in the range of 4&#x2013;8&#xa0;m/s<sup>2</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B96">Wesson et&#x20;al., 2007</xref>). Using these values for <inline-formula id="inf17">
<mml:math id="m20">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>a</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> in the above expression and 1,000&#xa0;kg/m<sup>3</sup> for <inline-formula id="inf18">
<mml:math id="m21">
<mml:mi>&#x3c1;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, the estimated maximum force on the crater wall dam for a lake 50&#xa0;m deep is 1&#x2013;2 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;N. For a lake 100&#xa0;m deep, <inline-formula id="inf19">
<mml:math id="m22">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>F</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>x</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is 2&#x2013;4 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;N. If it is assumed that peak ground acceleration occurs in a largely bidirectional, back and forth manner, only those parts of the crater wall in the domain of motion would be subject to the maximum forces. Using a 200&#xa0;m long sector of a generic crater and crater lake depths of 50 and 100&#xa0;m, the above estimated forces would generate maximum crater wall pressures of only 10&#x2013;40&#xa0;Pa which are very low and probably not significant enough to cause failure of the crater wall by this mechanism&#x20;alone.</p>
<p>Seismic shaking of lake-filled volcanic craters could result in liquefaction of strata within the crater walls which could be sufficient to cause crater rim failure. Several tailings dams have failed by this process (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">Lyu et&#x20;al., 2019</xref>) and where significant portions of volcanic crater walls are composed of relatively loose, unconsolidated or hydrothermally altered material, seismically induced liquefaction could be a concern. The duration and peak ground accelerations associated with large earthquakes also can result in back-and-forth water oscillations known as seiches (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">McGarr and Vorhis, 1968</xref>). Seismic seiches at volcanic lakes are not widely known, but the few examples described in the literature indicate that seiches can be hazardous (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">Moore et&#x20;al., 1966</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">Newhall and Dzurisin, 1988</xref>) and could be large enough to overtop crater rims which may lead to water erosion and possible dam failure.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s4-2">
<title>4.2 Volcanic Crater Lake Hydrology</title>
<p>Although it is beyond the scope of this paper to make a quantitative assessment of crater lake hydrology at each location discussed, some general commentary on the hydrologic setting of the Alaska crater lakes is warranted and provides some insight on the potential for changes in the water balance of the lakes. The primary hydrologic inputs are precipitation (snow, meltwater, rainfall; <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub>), groundwater (<italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>g</italic>
</sub>), and water from shallow magmatic sources (<italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>v</italic>
</sub>). These inputs are affected by evaporation (<italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>e</italic>
</sub>) and water outflow, either as direct open-channel flow (<italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>o</italic>
</sub>), groundwater seepage (<italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>gw</italic>
</sub>), or both, such that <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub> &#x2b; <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>g</italic>
</sub> &#x2b; <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>v</italic>
</sub> &#x3d; <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>e</italic>
</sub> <italic>&#x2b; W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>o</italic>
</sub> &#x2b; <italic>W</italic>
<sub>
<italic>gw</italic>
</sub> which is a general statement for the water balance of the lake (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Pasternack and Varekamp, 1997</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B70">Rouwet et&#x20;al., 2004</xref>). None of these variables are known with any degree of certainty for the Alaska crater lake examples discussed here. The Alaska volcanic craters are situated at the summit of their respective volcanic edifices and the crater itself defines the hydrologic catchment. Of the 16 volcanic craters examined in this study, nine are on volcanoes with significant amounts of glacier ice (&#x3e;1&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">GLIMS Consortium, 2005</xref>) and the remaining six craters are in areas that receive seasonal snow (typically September&#x2013;April) that can exceed several meters depth (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Brown et&#x20;al., 2003</xref>; <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/Snow_Depth">https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/Snow_Depth</ext-link>). The volume of glacier ice on volcanoes in Alaska has been measured only at a few locations. At Mount Spurr, about 67&#xa0;km<sup>3</sup> of glacier ice and perennial snow was present on the edifice when measured in 1981 (March et&#x20;al., 1997) indicating ice volumes at similar glaciated stratovolcanoes in Alaska are significant (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B90">Waythomas, 2015</xref>). Thus, a main hydrologic input, snow and glacier ice, is present at all locations in ample amounts. An example discussed in <italic>Lahars</italic> below, shows that an increase in the thermal output at an ice and snow-clad volcanic crater (Mount Spurr) could be sufficient to cause melting and increase the water input to the crater lake. An increase in heat flux at Chiginagak volcano also led to significant melting and an increase in the volume of the crater lake eventually resulting in catastrophic lake drainage (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>).</p>
<p>All volcanic crater locations receive significant precipitation and annual amounts of &#x3e;1&#xa0;m (water equivalent) are not uncommon (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B78">Stafford et&#x20;al., 2000</xref>) although long-term weather records in the study region are available only at a few localities at sea level. If a generic volcanic crater with an area of 1&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> receives 1&#xa0;m of snow accumulation, the approximate snow-water equivalent (SWE) is about 5&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> of water if the SWE of 1&#xa0;m of snow is about 50&#xa0;cm water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Sturm et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>). Thus, snowfall could represent a significant input to the Alaska crater lakes although some of this water will be lost to evaporation and groundwater seepage. These components of the water balance are difficult to estimate and although various springs have been observed (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">Motyka et&#x20;al., 1993</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B106">Evans et al., 2015</xref>), little is known about water flux or the state of groundwater at any of the volcanic craters discussed&#x20;here.</p>
<p>Systematic measurements of water levels in the Alaska crater lakes have not been accomplished, although opportunistic observations, photographs, and satellite data have provided a general sense of the presence and extent of lakes in some locations as described in <italic>Crater Lakes in Alaska</italic> above. Evidence of significant changes in water levels have been noted at Mount Spurr, Crater Peak, Chiginagak, Korovin, and north crater on Cerberus volcano. The summit craters at Mount Spurr and Chiginagak, and possibly Korovin and north crater have been affected by changes in the thermal output of the volcano. A lake was present at Crater Peak prior to the eruptive activity in 1992 and has not reappeared since suggesting that it too may have been a result of an increase in heat flow resulting in local snow and ice melt. Water level observations of Katmai Lake were made in the 1970s and from July 5, 1975, to August 20, 1977, the water level increased by about 6.5&#xa0;m or an average rate of 3&#xa0;m/yr (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">Motyka, 1978</xref>). Apparently, Katmai Lake drained sometime between 1919 and 1923 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Fenner, 1930</xref>). None of the other cater lakes exhibit any obvious evidence for fluctuations in lake level but it is clear from the few available observations that significant changes in water volume can&#x20;occur.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s5">
<title>5 Crater Rim Overtopping, Breach Formation, and Peak Flood Discharge</title>
<p>Assuming that sufficient water can be made to flow over the crater rim to initiate breach formation at the locations considered here, the maximum discharge at the breach can be evaluated using the same techniques for evaluation of breach formation at generic earth-fill dams (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Fread, 1996</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Walder and O&#x2019;Connor, 1997</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">Froehlich, 2008</xref>). Given that it would be difficult to specify all the conditions of breaching at the lake-filled craters described here, the goal is to provide first order estimates of the maximum possible peak discharge at the breach from a worst-case scenario perspective. To accomplish this, the method for predicting peak discharge by dam breaching described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Walder and O&#x2019;Connor (1997)</xref> is&#x20;used.</p>
<p>The physically based model of dam-breach formation described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Walder and O&#x2019;Connor (1997)</xref> makes use of the well-known kinematics of breach formation and the hydraulics of flow through a breach of known shape (typically trapezoidal, <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure&#x20;3B</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">Henderson, 1966</xref>). This approach provides estimates of peak discharge at the breach that are dependent on the volume of impounded water, breach erosion rate and shape, and lake&#x20;hypsometry. The discharge estimation technique makes use of a functional relationship between dimensionless peak&#x20;discharge (<inline-formula id="inf20">
<mml:math id="m23">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msubsup>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2217;</mml:mo>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>) and a dimensionless parameter <inline-formula id="inf21">
<mml:math id="m24">
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> (<inline-formula id="inf22">
<mml:math id="m25">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>7</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>&#xa0;</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf23">
<mml:math id="m26">
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the breach erosion rate, <inline-formula id="inf24">
<mml:math id="m27">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the initial volume of the lake, <inline-formula id="inf25">
<mml:math id="m28">
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is gravitational acceleration, and <inline-formula id="inf26">
<mml:math id="m29">
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the drop in lake level. The dimensionless peak discharge is expressed as<disp-formula id="e4">
<mml:math id="m30">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msubsup>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2217;</mml:mo>
</mml:msubsup>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>&#x3b1;</mml:mi>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>&#x3b2;</mml:mi>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(4)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf27">
<mml:math id="m31">
<mml:mi>&#x3b1;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula id="inf28">
<mml:math id="m32">
<mml:mi>&#x3b2;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are dimensionless coefficients that depend on the width-depth ratio of the breach, the side slope angles of the breach, and crater-lake hypsometry (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Walder and O&#x2019;Connor, 1997</xref>).</p>
<p>Assuming that a crater-rim breach forms rapidly to the full depth of the lake and the shape remains relatively fixed throughout the event (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis, 1984</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Singh et&#x20;al., 1988</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Walder and O&#x2019;Connor, 1997</xref>), the analysis of peak outflow can be simplified such that maximum peak discharge at the breach (<inline-formula id="inf29">
<mml:math id="m33">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>) can be estimated as follows:<disp-formula id="e5">
<mml:math id="m34">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1.94</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>5</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>4</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(5)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf30">
<mml:math id="m35">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the height of the dam crest relative to the dam base. For a worst-case scenario where the breach develops to the full depth of the lake at the breach (<inline-formula id="inf31">
<mml:math id="m36">
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>), <inline-formula id="inf32">
<mml:math id="m37">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>. This reduces the expression for <inline-formula id="inf33">
<mml:math id="m38">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> to:<disp-formula id="e6">
<mml:math id="m39">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1.94</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>5</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(6)</label>
</disp-formula>and is applicable in&#x20;situations of rapid breach formation where <inline-formula id="inf34">
<mml:math id="m40">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x226b;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>. For cases where breach development occurs slowly, and <inline-formula id="inf35">
<mml:math id="m41">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3c;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, the maximum peak discharge is expressed as:<disp-formula id="e7">
<mml:math id="m42">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1.51</mml:mn>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mn>5</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>&#x22c5;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>0.06</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.94</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(7)</label>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>Breach formation is assumed to occur at a constant rate <inline-formula id="inf36">
<mml:math id="m43">
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> through the full depth of the lake at the breach. Values of <inline-formula id="inf37">
<mml:math id="m44">
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> &#x3d; 1, 10, and 100&#xa0;m/h provide estimates of slow to fast breach formation. Studies of breach development during dam failures indicate that the final breach shape is almost always trapezoidal (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">MacDonald and Langridge-Monopolis, 1984</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Singh et&#x20;al., 1988</xref>). Assuming that crater lake breaches are also trapezoidal in shape, the maximum peak discharge at the breach can be expressed as a relation among <inline-formula id="inf38">
<mml:math id="m45">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, breach shape and water depth:<disp-formula id="e8">
<mml:math id="m46">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>b</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>1.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(8)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf39">
<mml:math id="m47">
<mml:mi>b</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the bottom width of the breach, <inline-formula id="inf40">
<mml:math id="m48">
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the angle of the breach side slope, <inline-formula id="inf41">
<mml:math id="m49">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and <inline-formula id="inf42">
<mml:math id="m50">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are geometric constants (<inline-formula id="inf43">
<mml:math id="m51">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>0.544</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>0.405</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>), and <inline-formula id="inf44">
<mml:math id="m52">
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the water depth of the lake above the base of the breach (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 1996</xref>). If the breach shape remains geometrically similar throughout its formation, the geometric variables <inline-formula id="inf45">
<mml:math id="m53">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>&#xa0;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, <inline-formula id="inf46">
<mml:math id="m54">
<mml:mi>b</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, and <inline-formula id="inf47">
<mml:math id="m55">
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are constants. When the time of breach formation (<italic>t</italic>) is &#x2265; <italic>d/k</italic>, <inline-formula id="inf48">
<mml:math id="m56">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>b</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> where the <inline-formula id="inf49">
<mml:math id="m57">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mi>b</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> ratio is &#x223c;2.5 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Singh et&#x20;al., 1988</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 1996</xref>).</p>
<p>Lake depth is related to lake volume by the following hypsometric relation:<disp-formula id="e9">
<mml:math id="m58">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>l</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="bold-italic">p</mml:mi>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(9)</label>
</disp-formula>where <inline-formula id="inf50">
<mml:math id="m59">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>l</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is the water depth at lake volume <inline-formula id="inf51">
<mml:math id="m60">
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, and <inline-formula id="inf52">
<mml:math id="m61">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#xa0;</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>and <inline-formula id="inf53">
<mml:math id="m62">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> are initial values of lake volume and water depth (<inline-formula id="inf54">
<mml:math id="m63">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>h</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>). The exponent <inline-formula id="inf55">
<mml:math id="m64">
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is specific to each lake basin; for long, narrow basins <inline-formula id="inf56">
<mml:math id="m65">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x223c;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> and for circular basins, <inline-formula id="inf57">
<mml:math id="m66">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x223c;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>, thus for the crater lakes and calderas examined here, <inline-formula id="inf58">
<mml:math id="m67">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>3</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is&#x20;used.</p>
<p>The change in water depth at the breach (<inline-formula id="inf59">
<mml:math id="m68">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> with time<inline-formula id="inf60">
<mml:math id="m69">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is:<disp-formula id="e10">
<mml:math id="m70">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mo>&#x2212;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfrac>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>2.5</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>&#x2212;</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>D</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>H</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(10)</label>
</disp-formula>and the maximum theoretical peak discharge for an instantaneously formed breach to the maximum depth of the lake at the breach is:<disp-formula id="e11">
<mml:math id="m71">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>2.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(11)</label>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<sec id="s5-1">
<title>5.1 Discussion of Peak Discharge Estimates</title>
<p>The results of peak discharge estimates for water floods produced by crater wall collapse are given in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T3">Table&#x20;3</xref>. The estimates are based on maximum peak discharge associated with a fully formed trapezoidal breach calculated with <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e11">Eq. 11</xref>, maximum peak discharge for rapid breach formation calculated with <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e6">Eq. 6</xref>, and maximum peak discharge calculated with <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e7">Eq. 7</xref> where breach erosion rate <inline-formula id="inf61">
<mml:math id="m72">
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> is set to 1, 10, and 100&#xa0;m/h.</p>
<table-wrap id="T3" position="float">
<label>TABLE 3</label>
<caption>
<p>Peak discharge estimates for hypothetical crater-lake dam failure floods at selected Alaska volcanoes assuming maximum initial crater lake volume. 1) calculated from: <inline-formula id="inf62">
<mml:math id="m73">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>r</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x2b;</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mi>c</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>o</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>t</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>&#x3b8;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>2.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> 2) calculated from: <inline-formula id="inf63">
<mml:math id="m74">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1.94</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>5</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>/</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> (3, 4, 5) calculated from: <inline-formula id="inf64">
<mml:math id="m75">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1.51</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>g</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac>
<mml:mn>5</mml:mn>
<mml:mn>2</mml:mn>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.06</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfrac bevelled="true">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
</mml:msub>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>d</mml:mi>
</mml:mfrac>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.94</mml:mn>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> where <inline-formula id="inf65">
<mml:math id="m76">
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula> &#x3d; 1, 10, and 100&#xa0;m/h.</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Volcano</th>
<th align="center">Maximum crater lake volume V<sub>0</sub>, in m<sup>3</sup>
</th>
<th align="center">(1) Maximum peak discharge, Q<sub>p</sub> in m<sup>3</sup>/s (trapezoidal breach)</th>
<th align="center">(2) Maximum peak discharge, Q<sub>p</sub> in m<sup>3</sup>/s<inline-formula id="inf66">
<mml:math id="m77">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo>(</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>&#x3b7;</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>&#x226b;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>1</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
</th>
<th align="center">(3) Maximum peak discharge, Q<sub>p</sub> in m<sup>3</sup>/s (<italic>k</italic>&#x20;&#x3d; 1&#xa0;m/h)</th>
<th align="center">(4) Maximum peak discharge, Q<sub>p</sub> in m<sup>3</sup>/s (<italic>k</italic>&#x20;&#x3d; 10&#xa0;m/h)</th>
<th align="center">(5) Maximum peak discharge, Q<sub>p</sub> in m<sup>3</sup>/s (<italic>k</italic>&#x20;&#x3d; 100&#xa0;m/h)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td align="left">Mt. Spurr summit</td>
<td align="center">9.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.16 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.41 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">47</td>
<td align="center">4.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Crater Peak</td>
<td align="center">1.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.25 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.15 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">2.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Douglas</td>
<td align="center">1 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.25 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.15 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">17</td>
<td align="center">1.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kaguyak</td>
<td align="center">9 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.13 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.67 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Katmai</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>9</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.19 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">8.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.4 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.9 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Mageik</td>
<td align="center">2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.61 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
<td align="center">54</td>
<td align="center">4.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Martin</td>
<td align="center">5.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.93 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.07 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">14</td>
<td align="center">1.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Chiginagak</td>
<td align="center">3.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.25 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.15 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">59</td>
<td align="center">5.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Dana</td>
<td align="center">2.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.25 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.15 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Hague</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.71 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.67 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">37</td>
<td align="center">3.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Makushin</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.23 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.07 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">15</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Tana</td>
<td align="center">3.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.98 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.09 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">92</td>
<td align="center">8 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">7 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Herbert</td>
<td align="center">4.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">4.36 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">8.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Korovin</td>
<td align="center">3.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.16 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.41 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">1 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.1 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">Kasatochi</td>
<td align="center">2.2 &#xd7; 10<sup>8</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.67 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">2.64 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">7.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">6.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">5.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">N. crater, Cerberus</td>
<td align="center">1.3 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.51 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">9.58 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">47</td>
<td align="center">4 &#xd7; 10<sup>2</sup>
</td>
<td align="center">3.5 &#xd7; 10<sup>3</sup>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<p>The largest peak discharge values result from application of <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e6">Eq. 6</xref> where breach formation is essentially instantaneous. These values are an upper bound on peak discharge and thus may be taken as representing the worst-case condition. The peak discharge values obtained from <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e6">Eq. 6</xref> are similar to those resulting from <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e11">Eq. 11</xref> where a trapezoidal-shaped breach is assumed throughout each crater rim failure flood&#x20;event.</p>
<p>Values for maximum peak discharge determined from <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e7">Eq. 7</xref> are shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure&#x20;4</xref>. Also shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure&#x20;4</xref> are the maximum peak discharges for other large outburst floods and lahars in Alaska and Iceland. Flood magnitudes associated with water-filled volcanic craters in Alaska are comparable to these volcanogenic flows and river floods and this highlights the potential significance of the Alaska examples.</p>
<fig id="F4" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Comparison of maximum peak discharge from hypothetical crater-lake floods in Alaska to other large flows. Peak discharge of Alaska crater-lake floods for breach erosion rates of 1, 10, and 100&#xa0;m/s estimated with <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e7">Eq. 7</xref>. Aniakchak peak discharge estimate from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 1996</xref>; subglacial eruption related flood and Yukon River discharge estimates from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">O&#x2019;Connor and Costa, 2004</xref>; Drift River lahar discharge estimates from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B91">Waythomas et&#x20;al.,&#x20;2013</xref>.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g004.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Variable breach erosion rates in <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e7">Eq. 7</xref> yield much smaller values for maximum peak discharge compared to estimates based on nearly instantaneous breach formation (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T3">Table&#x20;3</xref>). Although it is difficult to accurately determine the erosion rate of a crater rim a priori, the discharge estimates in <xref ref-type="table" rid="T3">Table&#x20;3</xref> indicate the strong dependence between erosion rate and peak discharge. There may be situations where it is possible to reasonably estimate the breach erosion rate and thus application of <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e7">Eq. 7</xref> in these situations would be warranted.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s6">
<title>6 Crater Lake Floods Associated With Glacier Ice Dams</title>
<p>Most of the crater lakes evaluated here do not involve glacier ice as a component of the natural dam. The three exceptions are Mount Spurr, Douglas volcano and Mount Chiginagak (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figures S1,3</xref> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure&#x20;5</xref>). In these two cases, glacier ice covers a significant part of the crater wall and is either known (Chiginagak) or suspected (Spurr, Douglas) to play a role in the development of floods from the associated lake-filled crater.</p>
<fig id="F5" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 5</label>
<caption>
<p>Photographs of subglacial tunnel and site of May 2005 lake drainage event on the rim of the Chiginagak crater. Photographs by R.G. McGimsey, AVO, August 21,&#x20;2006.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g005.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>At Douglas volcano, a significant portion of the crater wall is covered by glacier ice of unknown geometry. It may be that glacier ice simply drapes the crater rim, although photographs of the crater indicate that glacier ice fills several of the low areas along the rim (<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S3</xref>). If the crater lake were to increase in volume, the ice may melt, exposing the crater wall, or the ice could lend stability to the rim and make it less susceptible to erosion or failure if the ice cover is thick (&#x003E;100 m). If the glacier ice is a part of the crater rim, rising lake levels could destabilize the ice when the impounded water became deep enough to float or thermally erode the glacier dam (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Bj&#xf6;rnsson, 1974</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Nye, 1976</xref>). In this case, flow under the ice could eventually lead to the formation of a subglacial channel that would increase in size roughly proportional to the volume and duration of exiting lake water (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Clarke, 1982</xref>). If glacier ice makes up a significant part of the crater wall, wholesale failure of the ice would be analogous to rapid breach formation as discussed in the previous section.</p>
<p>Lakes impounded by glaciers pose a well-known flood hazard and are often described as glacier outburst floods or j&#xf6;kulhlaups (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Bj&#xf6;rnsson, 1974</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">Clague and O&#x2019;Connor, 2021</xref>). For situations where water drainage occurs through a subglacial tunnel, peak discharge (<italic>Q</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub>) can be estimated using an empirical relation between <italic>Q</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub> and lake volume (<italic>V</italic>) (Walder and Costa, 1996):<disp-formula id="e12">
<mml:math id="m78">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>Q</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>p</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>&#x3d;</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>46</mml:mn>
<mml:msup>
<mml:mi>V</mml:mi>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>0.66</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msup>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
<label>(12)</label>
</disp-formula>
</p>
<p>This equation provides first-order estimates of peak discharge for subglacial tunnel drainage but is less analytical than the method described in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Clarke (1982)</xref> where lake temperature and rate of tunnel closure are incorporated into numerical expressions for <italic>Q</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub>. For the May 2005 crater lake flood at Chiginagak, the lake volume (<italic>V</italic>) drained was estimated at 3.8 &#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). Application of <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e12">equation 12</xref> yields <italic>Q</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub> &#x3d; 111&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>/s. At Chiginagak, elevated water surface temperatures of about 40&#xb0;C were measured in the crater lake with a Forward Looking Infrared camera (FLIR) about 4&#xa0;months after the May 2005 crater lake flood (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). This indicates that lake water temperature could have been of this magnitude when the flood occurred and suggests that the thermal energy of the lake likely influenced tunnel drainage at the base of the ice dam (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure&#x20;5</xref>) and the <italic>Q</italic>
<sub>
<italic>p</italic>
</sub> estimate based on <xref ref-type="disp-formula" rid="e12">Eq. 12</xref> is likely a minimum&#x20;value.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s7">
<title>7 Hazards and Consequences of Eruptions Through Crater Lakes in Alaska</title>
<p>Of the sixteen volcanoes evaluated here, only six of them have had documented eruptive activity in the past 200-300 years (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). However, all sixteen volcanoes have been active during mid&#x2013;late Holocene time. Thus, it is not unreasonable to consider likely eruptive styles and hazards that are a consequence of future eruptions involving lake-filled craters and calderas addressed in this study. In addition to catastrophic crater rim failure floods described above that could occur during eruptive activity or not, other important hazards are a direct consequence of magma-water interaction influenced by significant volumes of water positioned above potentially active vents. Estimates of the maximum crater lake water depth at the point of spillover range from 10 to 470&#xa0;m (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). These water depths are generally considered shallow and would not exert significant hydrostatic pressure on rising magma to effect volatile exsolution such that explosive activity would be inhibited (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">Cas and Giordano, 2014</xref>). Thus, depending on the volatile content of the erupting magma, the lakes should have no significant effect on the explosiveness of potential eruptions assuming no direct magma-water interaction.</p>
<p>Magma-water interaction in the context of crater lakes can include a range of eruptive styles (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T4">Table&#x20;4</xref>), from non-explosive lava effusion to violent explosions associated with magma-water mixing (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Kokelaar, 1986</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B99">Wohletz et&#x20;al., 2009</xref>). Mafic eruptions involving crater lakes where the supply of water is essentially unlimited are typically Surtseyan style eruptions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">Kokelaar, 1983</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">N&#xe9;meth et&#x20;al., 2006</xref>). In cases where the eruptive conditions promote dynamic interaction of water and magma such that a significant vapor-phase component results, very violent phreatoplinian activity can occur. Both Surtseyan and phreatoplinian activity could generate hazardous phenomena (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T4">Table&#x20;4</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Mastin and Witter, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">Manville, 2015</xref>) that would be significant to areas within 5&#x2013;10&#xa0;km of the erupting volcano and ash fallout could affect areas well beyond this range. Among the main outcomes of eruptive activity at the crater and caldera lakes evaluated here are explosive displacement of water, lahars, and base surges. These outcomes are discussed briefly&#x20;below.</p>
<table-wrap id="T4" position="float">
<label>TABLE 4</label>
<caption>
<p>Expected eruption characteristics in relation to crater lake water supply assuming sustained eruption through lake (Modified from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B99">Wohletz et&#x20;al., 2009</xref>).</p>
</caption>
<table>
<thead valign="top">
<tr>
<th align="left">Water supply</th>
<th align="center">Eruption characteristics</th>
<th align="center">Volcanic cloud height</th>
<th align="center">Main eruptive products</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody valign="top">
<tr>
<td rowspan="3" align="left">Unlimited</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Surtseyan jets</td>
<td rowspan="3" align="center">0.3&#x2013;1.5&#xa0;km</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Fine-grained surge deposits</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Base surges</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Ballistic particles</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Wet fallout</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Fine-coarse ash and lapilli</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td rowspan="3" align="left">Available but not unlimited</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Violent magma-water interactions</td>
<td rowspan="3" align="center">20&#x2013;50&#xa0;km</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Abundant fine ash</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Phreatoplinian eruption columns</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Pyroclastic mass-flow deposits</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Column collapse pyroclastic density currents</td>
<td align="left">&#x2022; Extensive ash fallout</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<sec id="s7-1">
<title>7.1 Explosive Displacement of Water</title>
<p>Expulsion of water beyond crater rims could occur during larger eruptions involving substantial amounts of volatile-rich magma, generally VEI 3 or larger, but possible for eruptions as small as VEI 1 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Mastin and Witter, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">Rouwet and Morrissey, 2015</xref>). Explosive displacement of water from crater lakes can take on several forms from small seiche-like or splash displacements that may or may not overtop the crater rim such as those that occurred during the initial unrest at Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka in 1996 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">Belousov and Belousova, 2009</xref>) and at Ruapehu volcano, New&#x20;Zealand in 1995 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Lecointre et&#x20;al., 2004</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Kilgour et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>) to wholesale evacuation of the entire crater lake. A numerical modeling study by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Morrissey et&#x20;al. (2010)</xref> indicated that if crater lake water depth is &#x3e; 90&#xa0;m and eruption pressures are &#x3c;10&#xa0;MPa, subaqueous jetting capable of breaching the water surface is unlikely to occur, whereas in&#x20;situations where the eruption pressure is &#x3e; 10&#xa0;MPa, explosive jetting through the water column and displacement of water can occur. Given these approximate constraints, physical disruption of crater lakes in Alaska should be expected during future eruptions should they occur at the volcanoes discussed.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s7-2">
<title>7.1.1 Alaska Examples</title>
<p>Complete evacuation of a crater lake occurred during the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi volcano (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure&#x20;6</xref>) and resulted in some interesting and possibly diagnostic deposits (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure&#x20;7</xref>). Kasatochi as described previously has a summit-defining crater that hosts a&#x20;lake that today is about 8.4 &#xd7; 10<sup>5</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> and has a volume of about 1.7 &#xd7; 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>. Although the pre-2008 lake was slightly smaller, the volume was likely on the order of 10<sup>7</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6">Figure&#x20;6</xref>). This volume of water was explosively discharged from the crater during the early phase of the 2008 Kasatochi eruption (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010a</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Scott et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>). Although not widespread on Kasatochi Island, the first of the 2008 eruptive deposits to accumulate were massive grey muddy tephra deposits and multiple beds of pumice rich coarse ash and mud that collectively are up to 50&#xa0;cm thick. When freshly exposed by shovel, these deposits oxidize rapidly and take on a yellow-brown-gray color indicating that the muddy components were probably chemically reduced when deposited (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Scott et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>). The pH of these deposits was 3&#x2013;4.5, lower than all other 2008 eruptive deposits (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B86">Wang et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>). A plausible explanation for these deposits is that they represent erupted lacustrine sediment from the floor of the crater lake. The muddy fall deposits are overlain by massive pyroclastic-flow deposits at least 10&#xa0;m thick, that contain juvenile pyroclasts of light grey andesite and lithic debris (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure&#x20;7</xref>). Various types of unburned organic matter (twigs, stems, moss, and grass) are dispersed throughout the lower 1&#x2013;2&#xa0;m of the pyroclastic-flow unit in several locations (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7">Figure&#x20;7</xref>). This material represents the vegetated surface on the flanks of the volcano that was overrun and eroded by pyroclastic flows. Wave erosion of the Kasatochi coastline exhumed areas where wooden observation structures had been constructed by biologists working on the island; lumber remains in these areas is also unburned or charred. The presence of unburned organic matter and wood in the basal part of the pyroclastic-flow sequence indicates that these deposits were at low temperature (&#x003C;300 &#x00B0;C) when emplaced. It is reasonable to conclude that water, water vapor, or both were components of the initial erupting mass and present in significant quantities to cool the eruptive mixture including pyroclastic flows emplaced during the early part of the eruption. As the eruption began to subside and water began reentering the crater, ejection of ballistic particles was noted (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010a</xref>). This may have been a result of a greater degree of magma-water interaction as the supply of water increased.</p>
<fig id="F6" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 6</label>
<caption>
<p>Photographs of Kasatochi crater lake, before <bold>(A)</bold> and after <bold>(B,C)</bold> the August 7, 2008, VEI 4 eruption. <bold>(A)</bold>. View across Kasatochi crater lake to the north, August 6, 2008. Photo by C. Ford, US Fish and Wildlife Service. <bold>(B)</bold>. Interior of Kasatochi crater and small, shallow lake on the crater floor, August 22, 2008, about 2&#xa0;weeks after the 2008 eruption. View is toward the east. Photo by R. Buchheit, US Fish and Wildlife Service. <bold>(C)</bold>. Panorama of northern, eastern, and southern part of Kasatochi crater, taken from crater rim, August 10, 2010. Photo by J.&#x20;Williams, US Fish and Wildlife Service.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g006.tif"/>
</fig>
<fig id="F7" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 7</label>
<caption>
<p>Basal pyroclastic-flow deposits of the 2008 Kasatochi eruption, June 14, 2009. Both photos by C. Waythomas, AVO. <bold>(A)</bold>. Typical outcrop of lithic-rich pyroclastic-flow deposits on west side of Kasatochi Island. These deposits make up the first sequence of pyroclastic-flow deposits emplaced during the early part of the 2008 Kasatochi eruption. Arrow locates area of photo shown in <bold>(B)</bold>. Note person for scale in lower left. <bold>(B)</bold>. Close up view of pyroclastic-flow deposits containing unburned organic matter (OM), juvenile andesite (A) and lithic clasts (L). Organic matter like this is dispersed throughout the lower 1&#x2013;2&#xa0;m of the pyroclastic-flow deposits.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g007.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Eruptive removal of the crater lake within the south crater of Korovin volcano was suspected in 2002 and 2004 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">McGimsey et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). The south crater typically hosts a small crater lake with an area of about 1.6 &#xd7; 10<sup>4</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>2</sup> (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>; <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S13</xref>). Images of south crater in 2002 and 2004 show grey, apparently fine-grained deposits on the upper east flank of the cone and these deposits exhibit flowage features (digitate lobes, levees, and shallow channels; <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8">Figure&#x20;8</xref>) indicative of water-saturated flow. Brief eruptive bursts at Korovin&#x2019;s south crater are somewhat common historically and are likely phreatic or phreatomagmatic in origin (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">McGimsey et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). During these bursts, it is inferred that wet mixtures of ash and debris are emplaced on the upper part of the cone just beyond the crater rim. Although yet unconfirmed with before and after observations, the crater lake is also likely partially or entirely removed during these types of events.</p>
<fig id="F8" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 8</label>
<caption>
<p>Views of wet eruptive deposits on upper east flank of the south crater at Korovin volcano. <bold>(A)</bold>. Oblique photograph of Korovin south crater, July 1, 2004. Photo by T. Plucinski, AVO. <bold>(B)</bold>. True color Ikonos satellite image of the summit crater of Korovin volcano, July 4, 2004. Grey-colored ash and mass-flow deposit extends about 1&#xa0;km beyond crater rim. A small lake that is typically present in the inner crater is absent in this image and was likely removed by the small eruption that produced the deposits evident on the east flank of the crater.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g008.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s7-3">
<title>7.2 Lahars</title>
<p>Discharge of water from crater lakes that led to the development of lahars has only been documented a few times in Alaska. The most noteworthy example is at Chiginagak volcano where acidic water drained via an ice dam and produced a lahar and water flood downstream from the crater (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9">Figure&#x20;9</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B72">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2013</xref>). The volume of water released was about 3.8&#x20;&#xd7; 10<sup>6</sup>&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>). Because the fluid component of the flow was acidic (pH at least as low as 2.9) and it liberated acidic aerosols along its flow path, considerable impacts to the riparian ecosystem and to Mother Goose Lake occurred (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B72">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2013</xref>). Apparently, release of acidic water from Chiginagak crater is a recurring event as lake sediment cores from Mother Goose Lake reveal multiple layers of orange-colored sediment interpreted as acidic flood deposits (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">Kassel, 2009</xref>).</p>
<fig id="F9" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 9</label>
<caption>
<p>Extent of lahar and flood deposits associated with May 2005 crater lake drainage event at Chiginagak volcano. Modified from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaefer et&#x20;al., 2008</xref>. Base is Sentinel-2 SWIR image of Chiginagak volcano, May 18,&#x20;2021.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g009.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>Watery debris flows were observed on the upper part of the Mount Spurr cone in July 2004 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10">Figure&#x20;10</xref>). The flows coincided with a period of elevated heat flow at the summit of Mount Spurr that melted a substantial amount of ice and snow at the summit to reveal a summit crater (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Coombs et&#x20;al., 2006</xref>). As described in an earlier section of this paper, a small lake developed in the crater. A hydrologic connection between the crater lake and the debris flows observed in July 2004 has not been determined. A plausible explanation for the flows is that they formed by outflow of ponded subglacial water stored on the Mount Spurr edifice that was produced by the elevated heat flow and if so, do not record drainage from the crater lake. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Coombs et&#x20;al. (2006)</xref> proposed forceable ejection of water from the crater lake resulting from rapid ice collapse into the water body. For this to occur, a subglacial channel network able to convey the debris-laden water would have to develop either prior to or coincident with ice collapse. Such networks are inferred at the base of thick glaciers (&#x3e;100&#xa0;m) but in these situations water release is related to the glacier reaching a flotation condition because of subglacial ponding of water to roughly 0.9&#x20;times the ice thickness (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Bj&#xf6;rnsson, 1974</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Nye, 1976</xref>). The prolonged period of elevated heat flow at the summit of Mount Spurr could have changed the permeability conditions of the snow and ice cover on the edifice such that forceable ejection of water produced the debris flows; however, the hydrologic connection between the crater lake and the flows remains unclear.</p>
<fig id="F10" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 10</label>
<caption>
<p>Photograph of the Mount Spurr summit cone, July 15, 2004, view is toward the north. The dark streaks on the upper right (east) side of the cone are small debris flows that emerged through the ice and snow mantling the cone. The largest flow as about 1&#xa0;km in length. It is unclear if there was a hydrologic connection between these flows and the crater lake that developed within the summit crater (see <xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Figure S1</xref>). Photo by C.A. Neal, AVO.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g010.tif"/>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="s7-4">
<title>7.3 Base Surges</title>
<p>Explosive eruptions through water commonly produce ring-shaped, radially spreading, turbulent clouds known as base surges (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">Moore, 1967</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B87">Waters and Fisher, 1971</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">Rouwet and Morrissey, 2015</xref>). Base surges move along the surface at speeds on the order of tens of meters per second and can flow as much as 10&#xa0;km from the eruption site (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">Mastin and Witter, 2000</xref>). Although base surges were observed during the 2016&#x2013;2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B89">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2020</xref>) and during the 1977 eruption at Ukinrek Maars (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">Self et&#x20;al., 1980</xref>), they have not been documented during historical eruptive activity at any of the crater lakes discussed here. It is possible that base surges developed during the 2008 Kasatochi eruption as surge deposits are a component of the sequence of eruptive deposits (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B93">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 2010a</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Scott et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>).</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="s8">
<title>8 Discussion and Conclusions</title>
<p>Summit craters that contain lakes at stratovolcanoes in Alaska are somewhat uncommon relative to the number of active volcanoes. Of the volcanoes active during the Holocene, only about one-third have summit crater lakes and two of these are small caldera lakes (Katmai, Kaguyak). However, significant amounts of water situated over potentially active vents at the top of volcanic summits with substantial relief augments some of the hazards that are possible at these locations. Although the analysis of floods resulting from failure of the crater rim presented here is based on a worse-case scenario (crater lake at maximum possible volume), excessive volumes of water are not necessary for external water to have a role in affecting eruptive style (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">Cas and Simmons, 2018</xref>). Hydrovolcanic explosions are notoriously violent and when magma-water ratios approach about 5:1 the explosive energy of the mixture reaches a maximum (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B98">Wohletz, 1986</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">Mastin, 1995</xref>). Thus, even though a crater lake is shallow, it could supply enough external water to the upper edifice such that water-saturated conditions exist which could promote magma-water interaction possibly increasing the likelihood of explosive phreatomagmatic activity.</p>
<p>Available water in crater lakes in combination with active hydrothermal systems is also a well-known mechanism for enhancing alteration of volcanic edifices (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">Reid et&#x20;al., 2001</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">Heap et&#x20;al., 2021</xref>) which may lead to slope failures and catastrophic crater lake drainage. Several volcanic craters examined here exhibit some degree of hydrothermal alteration, but the extent and type of alteration and strength of the crater walls is not&#x20;known.</p>
<p>The estimates of maximum peak discharge associated with rapid breach formation through the crater rims indicates that significant water floods could be generated. The flood magnitudes are comparable to the flood peaks associated with large volcanigenic floods in other settings, indicating that Alaskan crater lakes could pose significant hydrologic hazards should the craters become water filled.</p>
<p>The Alaska crater lakes discussed here can be grouped according to the relative hazard posed by each lake (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F11">Figure&#x20;11</xref>). The estimated maximum lake volumes for all craters and small calderas indicate that large floods could occur as all locations have large potential lake volumes (<xref ref-type="table" rid="T1">Table&#x20;1</xref>). Kasatochi, Korovin, Chiginagak, and Makushin also have hydrothermally altered craters and a record of historical eruptive activity or lake drainage events suggesting that they have a higher relative likelihood of experiencing hydrologic hazards related to their crater lakes. Crater Peak, and north crater on Cerberus volcano have been historically active, which suggests that if lakes develop at these locations, future eruptive activity can have a hydrologic component. Craters and associated lakes at Katmai, Hague, Mount Spurr, Martin, Tana, Douglas, and Mageik have hydrothermally altered craters but no known or limited historical eruptive activity. At these locations non-eruptive mechanisms for crater rim collapse, such as seismically induced liquefaction or seiching, could be important. That these locations have experienced several large historical earthquakes, including the M 9.2 1964 Alaska earthquake without associated crater wall collapse, suggests that the crater walls possess some inherent stability and thus a lower relative hazard potential. Qualitatively, the craters at Kaguyak, Herbert, and Dana appear to be the most stable and thus have the lowest relative crater wall failure hazard.</p>
<fig id="F11" position="float">
<label>FIGURE 11</label>
<caption>
<p>Relative ranking scheme for hydrologic hazards at lake-filled volcanic craters and small calderas in Alaska. Those locations that have hydrothermally altered craters and a record of historical eruptive activity or lake drainage events are more likely to pose greater hydrologic hazards in the future than those locations with minimal evidence for hydrothermal alteration and no known historical eruptive activity.</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="feart-09-751216-g011.tif"/>
</fig>
<p>In comparison to crater lakes elsewhere, there are only a few documented cases of large floods associated with partial degradation of crater rim dams (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B101">Yang et&#x20;al., 2005</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">Manville, 2015</xref>) with Crater Lake at Mt. Ruapehu, New&#x20;Zealand being the most noteworthy (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">Massey et&#x20;al., 2010</xref>). Water floods from lakes impounded by calderas have received more study but these are considerably larger than those associated with crater lakes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B94">Waythomas et&#x20;al., 1996</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">Manville, 2010</xref>). Given the relatively large number of crater lakes in Alaska, additional analysis of crater wall stability, crater hydrology and water balance, and an appropriate monitoring scheme for detecting lake level changes would provide much useful information for improving our understanding of the potential hazards associated with lake-filled volcanic craters.</p>
</sec>
</body>
<back>
<sec id="s9">
<title>Data Availability Statement</title>
<p>The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article/<xref ref-type="sec" rid="s13">Supplementary Material</xref>, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s10">
<title>Author Contributions</title>
<p>The author confirms being the sole contributor of this work and has approved it for publication.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="COI-statement" id="s11">
<title>Conflict of Interest</title>
<p>The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="disclaimer" id="s12">
<title>Publisher&#x2019;s Note</title>
<p>All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.</p>
</sec>
<ack>
<p>The author wishes to thank the journal editor, D. Rouwet, two reviewers, C. A. Neal and J.&#x20;Schaefer for their thoughtful reviews and comments which helped clarify several important points and better focus the manuscript.</p>
</ack>
<sec id="s13">
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.751216/full#supplementary-material">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.751216/full&#x23;supplementary-material</ext-link>
</p>
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