The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, have escalated in recent years, driven in part by climate change resulting from anthropogenic activities. This trend is further exacerbated by the unsustainable human exploitation of Earth’s resources, often carried out with little consideration for the needs of other species sharing the planet. These climatic disruptions disproportionately affect smallholder farmers in developing countries, particularly across Africa, who are among the most vulnerable to climate-induced risks (Bahta, 2022; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Radeny et al., 2019). This is due to heavy reliance on rainfed farming systems and limited capacity to cope with a changing climate (Bahta, 2022; Zinyengere et al., 2011). Indeed, climate change remains one of the key challenges catalysing the food insecurity crisis in Africa (Ayugi et al., 2022; Bedasa and Bedemo, 2022). Nevertheless, increased access and investments in agro-meteorological services can significantly help offset the adverse effects of climate change through the information provided to farmers to improve their production and marketing decisions and to ensure the uptake of optimal adaptation strategies (Bruno Soares, 2017; Hansen et al., 2019; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Takle et al., 2014; Tarchiani et al., 2018; Tesfaye et al., 2019; Vaughan, 2022).

Agro-meteorological services and products, encompassing weather forecasts, seasonal climate outlooks, and early warnings, are a key subset of weather and climate services that support agricultural decision-making, typically delivered through the National Meteorological Services (NMS) (Hansen et al., 2019; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Tarchiani et al., 2018; Vaughan, 2022; WMO, 2021; WMO, 2022). Searching for weather information and products is a common risk management technique employed by African farmers (Anaman, 1988; Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Manzvera et al., 2024). While weather forecasts focus on short- to medium-term conditions and climate services address longer-term trends, the two overlap significantly, and terms such as weather forecasts, seasonal climate services, and climate information are often used interchangeably. Farmers rely on both: short-term forecasts guide daily operations like fertiliser application, while seasonal climate services inform strategic decisions such as crop selection and land preparation (Adams et al., 2003; Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Bert et al., 2006; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Patt et al., 2005; Roudier et al., 2016; Takle et al., 2014; Tarchiani et al., 2018), underscoring their integrated role in agriculture. For this study, these terms are used synonymously, with the reviewed literature primarily focusing on seasonal weather forecasts.

Despite their potential, the economic value of agro-meteorological services remains poorly understood, particularly in Africa, where forecasts are often treated as public goods (Anaman et al., 2017; Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Chiputwa et al., 2022; Vaughan and Dessai, 2014). This lack of recognition limits investments in modern meteorological infrastructure and tailored service delivery (Dinku et al., 2022; Hewitt and Stone, 2021; WMO, 2015, 2021). Greater awareness of their benefits is essential to inform policy and increase funding towards the delivery of these services (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Freebairn and Zillman, 2002; Perrels et al., 2013; WMO, 2015). Concurrently, increased funding for agro-meteorological services further ensures these services are delivered in formats that are easily understood by end-users and translated into actionable decisions at the farm level (Hewitt and Stone, 2021; Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Zinyengere et al., 2011).

This study addresses this gap in understanding the economic value of agro-meteorological services through a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis. The central research question is: What is the economic value of agro-meteorological services? The meta-analysis quantifies benefits at both farmer and societal levels—considering increased agricultural production and improved food availability for consumers (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Bruno Soares, 2017), offering a more rigorous assessment than traditional narrative reviews, which typically provide qualitative summaries. Beyond quantification, the study’s novelty lies in examining research gaps through a political economy lens. Political economy analysis is critical because access to and perceived value of these services are shaped not only by technical quality but also by socioeconomic and institutional factors such as poverty, marginalisation, social exclusion, and infrastructure limitations. For example, smallholder farmers in remote areas often face barriers like poor telecommunications, low literacy, and limited financial resources, which hinder effective use of forecasts even when publicly available. Accounting for these dynamics provides a more complete understanding of the benefits of agro-meteorological services and informs policies and interventions that promote equity, ensure vulnerable groups benefit, and target investments where they are most needed to strengthen climate change adaptation.

The remainder of the paper has four major sections. The first section outlines the materials and methods employed. Secondly, the key findings from the review process are provided. Third, the discussion section is provided, highlighting common trends that emerged as well as areas which need further attention. The conclusion and recommendations, including suggestions made to expand investments in agro-meteorological services, are provided in the fourth section. The list of cited references is provided at the end of the paper.

Generally, investments in advanced meteorological infrastructure are justified by the magnitude of societal benefits they generate. Consequently, national meteorological and hydrological services increasingly face pressure to provide robust, quantitative evidence demonstrating the returns to public investment, particularly in agriculture, where weather and climate services directly influence production decisions, risk management, and resilience to climate variability. The findings of this review respond directly to this need by synthesising empirical evidence showing substantial and growing economic benefits of agro-meteorological services across diverse contexts. The estimated global annual value of approximately US$590 million reinforces the argument that investments in agro-meteorological services yield returns that far exceed their costs. Such evidence strengthens the policy case for sustained and increased public funding to expand, modernise, and tailor agro-meteorological services to farmers’ needs (Amegnaglo et al., 2017; Perrels et al., 2013; WMO, 2015).

The review revealed that the primary methods used to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services include contingent valuation, choice experiments, travel cost methods, and simulation techniques, such as crop yield or net returns modelling (Amegnaglo et al., 2017, 2022; Jones et al., 2000; Makaudze, 2016; Mjelde et al., 1998; Ouédraogo et al., 2018; Paparrizos et al., 2021; Park et al., 2016; Rollins and Shaykewich, 2003; Tesfaye et al., 2019; Yu et al., 2008; Yuan et al., 2016). In addition to these techniques, producer surpluses and benefit–cost ratios were also be employed to estimate the economic value of agro-meteorological services (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b). Overall, there exists a considerable total economic value of agro-meteorological services globally. Across different locations and contexts, it has been noted that accuracy, a lead time of at least 3 months ahead, ease of understanding and location-specific forecasts are critical attributes for agro-meteorological services to be useful among farmers (Anaman and Lellyett, 1996b; Dinh, 2020; Fernandez et al., 2016; Jones et al., 2000; Makaudze, 2016; Marshall et al., 1996; Mjelde et al., 1998; Yu et al., 2008; Zinyengere et al., 2011). Dissemination channels, especially through mobile phone also enhance farmers’ propensity to use weather forecast information to tailor farming decisions (Chiputwa et al., 2022; Djido et al., 2021; Etwire et al., 2017).

Despite the strong evidence on economic value, the review reveals a notable gap in the literature regarding political economy dimensions that shape both the provision and valuation of agro-meteorological services. Most existing studies are firmly rooted in neoclassical economic frameworks and focus on individual farmers’ willingness to pay, typically estimated through micro-level analyses that assume rational decision-making and well-functioning information environments. While these approaches provide important insights into private benefits, they pay limited attention to broader political, institutional, and social factors that influence who accesses services, how benefits are distributed, and why investments may be constrained. As a result, current valuation estimates may understate or misrepresent the true societal value of agro-meteorological services, particularly in contexts characterised by inequality, weak institutions, or infrastructural deficits.

Funding for agro-meteorological services are inherently political process, shaped by power relations, governance structures, and competing development priorities. As highlighted by this review, economic valuation alone is insufficient to explain investment outcomes without accounting for the political, economic, social, and cultural contexts in which agro-meteorological services are produced and used (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Mubaya and Mafongoya, 2017; Munoz-Carrier et al., 2020; Tanner and Allouche, 2011). Political economy analysis provides a critical lens for understanding how factors such as marginalisation, social class, trust in institutions, governance quality, and participation in decision-making influence both the perceived and realised value of agro-meteorological services. Integrating political economy perspectives with neoclassical valuation approaches can therefore yield a more comprehensive economic valuation and provide insights on how investments can be better targeted to enhance equity, effectiveness, and resilience (Ruth, 2010; Di Gregorio et al., 2019; Mubaya and Mafongoya, 2017; Vaughan et al., 2018).

Institutional arrangements and governance processes emerge as particularly important determinants of value. Government policies, regulatory frameworks, and coordination among meteorological agencies, extension services, and local institutions can either enable or constrain farmers’ ability to benefit from weather forecasts (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Hansen, 2002; Jones et al., 2000; Mjelde et al., 1996). For instance, the legitimacy of the weather forecast communicators is fundamental to the value and use of agro-meteorological services (Patt and Gwata, 2002). Religious factors and power dynamics between farmers and producers of weather forecasts, as well as local governance structures, also determine the benefits and use of weather forecasts at the local level (Bruno Soares et al., 2018; Patt and Gwata, 2002). Institutional arrangements in communicating seasonal weather forecasts also imply the value and use of forecasts among farmers (Patt and Gwata, 2002). Thus, a delay in disseminating seasonal weather forecasts to farmers due to bureaucratic communication protocols within government agencies limits the value and relevance of forecasts to farmers. These findings underscore the importance of institutional reforms and improved stakeholder coordination as complementary investments alongside technical improvements in forecasting capacity.

Furthermore, the review also highlights a methodological imbalance in existing research, which predominantly captures farmers’ perspectives while largely overlooking the views of elites and decision-makers. Policymakers, politicians, and traditional leaders play a decisive role in shaping national priorities, allocating resources, and legitimising agro-meteorological services within broader development agendas (Ayittey, 2022). By neglecting these actors, many valuation studies fail to capture the political drivers of investment decisions and service delivery outcomes. Incorporating elite perspectives would improve understanding of how policy priorities are set and how evidence on economic value is translated—or not—into actual investments.

Given the central role of elites in designing and implementing climate service strategies, future research should adopt mixed-methods approaches that integrate quantitative valuation with qualitative political economy analysis (Ayittey, 2022; Soko et al., 2023). Examining the interactions among markets, communities, and the state would enable a more holistic assessment of the factors shaping investment decisions and farmers’ willingness to pay (Manzvera and Anaman, 2024). Such an approach would also help explain observed disparities in geographical coverage and scale of valuation studies, particularly the underrepresentation of vulnerable regions such as Africa in macro-level assessments.

Finally, the review identifies limited empirical attention to the economic value of indigenous weather forecasting systems. Although a few studies have begun to quantify the benefits of indigenous forecasts, this remains an underexplored area despite their widespread use among smallholder farmers, particularly in Africa (Amegnaglo et al., 2022; Gbangou et al., 2021; Gwenzi et al., 2016; Kalanda-Joshua et al., 2011; Radeny et al., 2019; Roncoli et al., 2002). Integrating indigenous knowledge systems with modern agro-meteorological services offers significant potential to enhance trust, relevance, and uptake of forecasts (Hiwasaki et al., 2014; Kalanda-Joshua et al., 2011). Evidence from contexts such as Zimbabwe demonstrates that alignment between scientific and indigenous forecasts can substantially improve usability and decision-making. Expanding research in this area would not only enrich valuation evidence but also support more inclusive and context-sensitive climate service design (Patt and Gwata, 2002).

Like other studies, this research has some limitations. First, the review was limited to articles published in English, which may have excluded relevant studies in other languages and introduced potential language bias. Second, although most reviewed studies reported economic values in US$, estimates from Australia required conversion using prevailing exchange rates at the time of review rather than those applicable when the original studies were conducted. Given exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, this may have led to slight over- or underestimation of reported values. Finally, the review focused exclusively on the agricultural sector; therefore, the economic value of weather and climate services in other sectors, such as transport, aviation, mining, and tourism, was not assessed. Future research incorporating these sectors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the overall economic value of weather and climate services across the economy.

This paper synthesises empirical evidence on the economic value of agro-meteorological services through a comprehensive review of international literature and a meta-analysis. The findings demonstrate that agro-meteorological services generate substantial economic value, with an estimated average annual value of US$0.59 billion (US$590 million). These services play a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity, improving decision-making, and mitigating the adverse effects of climate variability and change. The evidence highlights the importance of sustained investment in advanced meteorological infrastructure and forecasting capacity, including modern equipment and communication systems, to deliver accurate, timely, and location-specific information. Such investments should be regarded not as recurrent costs, but as high-return public goods that yield significant societal benefits and strengthen agricultural resilience.

Despite the clear economic value identified, the review reveals important gaps in understanding the political, economic, and institutional factors that shape investment decisions and service delivery outcomes. Future research should therefore integrate political economy analysis to better explain how governance structures, power relations, institutional capacity, and policy priorities influence the development, allocation, and funding of agro-meteorological services. Political economy analysis provides a complementary framework to neoclassical valuation approaches by capturing the roles of markets, communities, and the state in shaping access, equity, and effectiveness. Greater attention to the perspectives of policymakers, politicians, and community leaders is particularly important, as these actors play a central role in determining investment priorities and the sustainability of meteorological services.

Another key priority for future research is the systematic integration of modern agro-meteorological services with indigenous weather knowledge systems, especially in regions dominated by smallholder agriculture, such as Africa. While modern forecasting technologies have been widely evaluated, indigenous forecasting systems remain underrepresented in economic valuation studies despite their long-standing use and cultural relevance. Exploring complementarities between scientific and indigenous knowledge can enhance trust, improve relevance, and increase farmers’ uptake of weather information. Such integration also supports co-production approaches that strengthen local ownership of climate services and improve their effectiveness in building climate resilience.

The review also highlights that existing studies place limited emphasis on the broader, economy-wide benefits of agro-meteorological services beyond the farm level. Improved agricultural outcomes can generate significant spillover effects through linkages with agribusiness, food processing, trade, and employment. These indirect benefits can be rigorously quantified using macroeconomic tools such as input–output analysis, social accounting matrices, and computable general equilibrium models. Incorporating these approaches into future research would enable a more comprehensive estimation of the total economic value of agro-meteorological services and strengthen the case for increased public investment in meteorological infrastructure.

In conclusion, while the evidence confirms that agro-meteorological services deliver substantial economic value, a more comprehensive understanding of their impact requires moving beyond narrow valuation frameworks guided by neoclassical theories. Addressing political economy constraints, integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge systems, and quantifying economy-wide spillover effects are critical for improving policy design and investment decisions. Future research that adopts these integrated approaches will better inform policymakers, promote equitable and effective service delivery, and ensure that investments in agro-meteorological services are sustained and aligned with long-term agricultural and development goals.