AUTHOR=Fiandrino Stefania , Cattuto Ciro , Paolotti Daniela , Schifanella Rossano 
  
TITLE=Combining environmental and socioeconomic data to understand determinants of conflicts in Colombia
  
JOURNAL=Frontiers in Big Data
  
VOLUME=Volume 6 - 2023
  
YEAR=2023
  
URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/big-data/articles/10.3389/fdata.2023.1107785
  
DOI=10.3389/fdata.2023.1107785
  
ISSN=2624-909X
  
ABSTRACT=Conflicts cause immense human suffering, violate human rights, and affect people’s stability. Colombia is affected for decades by a high level of armed conflicts and violence. The complex mosaic of determinants of conflicts involves the political and socio-economic situation, the drug
trafficking in the Colombian economy, and the natural disasters affecting the country. In this work,
we aim to evaluate the role of the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of conflicts in
the Colombian context. To achieve these aims, we apply a spatial analysis to explore patterns
and identify areas that suffer from high levels of conflict. We investigate the role of determinants
and their relationship with conflicts through spatial regression models. In this study, we do not
consider only the entire Colombian territory, but we extend the analysis to a restricted area (Norte
de Santander department) to explore the phenomena locally. Our results show that surprisingly
socioeconomic variables present very little relationship with conflicts, while natural disasters and
cocaine areas have high significance. Despite some variables seeming to be the more informative
to explain the process globally, they highlight a strong relationship for only a few specific areas
while considering a local analysis. This result proves the importance of moving to a local analysis
to strengthen our understanding and bring out additional information. Finally, by comparing two
spatial regression models, we notice a possible diffusion process of conflicts and the presence of
spillover effects among regions.