AUTHOR=Vourlidas Angelos 

TITLE=Improving the Medium-Term Forecasting of Space Weather: A Big Picture Review From a Solar Observer's Perspective

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences

VOLUME=Volume 8 - 2021

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/astronomy-and-space-sciences/articles/10.3389/fspas.2021.651527

DOI=10.3389/fspas.2021.651527

ISSN=2296-987X

ABSTRACT=Our scientific understanding of the solar drivers of Space Weather, i.e. Coronal Mass Ejections, flares, and solar energetic particles, has improved considerably in the last 20+ years thanks to a plethora of space missions and modeling advances. Yet, there has been no major breakthrough in assessing the geo-effectiveness of a given CME and associated phenomena, largely holding back actionable medium-term (up to 7 days) forecasting of Space Weather. Why is that?

To search for answers, I first summarise the results of the last 20+ years of research on solar drivers by collecting lessons-learned and identifying paradigm shifts in our view of solar activity, always in relation to Space Weather concerns. Then, I review the state of the key observational-based quantities used in forecasting, which allows me to identify the choke points and research gaps that drive the current medium-term forecasting performance. Finally, I outline a path forward consisting of the  measurements with the strongest potential to improve space weather forecasting horizon and robustness.